Will High Prime Member Churn Hurt Amazon Sales?

By | February 17, 2016

Scalper1 News

Amazon.com ‘s ( AMZN ) Prime loyalty program is one of the keys to the company’s e-tail dominance, but the secretive Amazon reveals little about Prime’s underlying metrics, leaving analysts to generate their own. According to a recent analysis conducted by ITG Investment Research, Amazon’s churn rate — the annual rate at which shoppers stop subscribing to Prime — was 32% in Dec. of 2015, which ITG analyst Steve Weinstein called “high.” But in a research note Thursday, Weinstein wrote that even though the company has a high churn rate, customers who dropped Prime actually spent 8% more money on Amazon.com in the year following the cancellation. Amazon Prime is one of the few extremely successful loyalty programs in e-tail, a fact that surprises Wells Fargo analyst Matt Nemer. He told IBD recently that he would have expected competitors to innovate, but few have done so with success. Competitor Wal-Mart ‘s ( WMT ) Walmart.com does not have a customer loyalty program for online sales. Target ( TGT ) recently rolled out its Red Card program, which offers free shipping from Target.com, an extra 30 days for returns and 5% off all purchases. Amazon Prime affords its members free one-day shipping in certain markets, free two-day shipping in most of the continental United States, free streaming video with original award-winning content, and a host of other perks. It’s no wonder that Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos is betting big on Prime: Member spending continues to drive Amazon’s sales, too. In Q4 2015, Weinstein says that Prime members generated 57% of Amazon’s North American top line and that Prime members increase their spending about 12% annually. Older Prime members tend to spend more, and Weinstein’s analysis indicated that those members who signed up in Jan. of 2012 spent, on average, nearly 45% more on Amazon in 2015 than Prime members who joined in Jan. 2014. Non-Prime shoppers spend less than $1,000 on average in 2015. Some 33% of Prime’s 46 million members have been acquired in the last two years, Weinstein says. Amazon stock rose 2.5% to 534.10 in the stock market today . The company has an IBD Composite Rating of 75, where 99 is the highest. Seattle-based Amazon posted mixed Q4 earnings — despite hauling in more than $100 billion in sales during 2015, the company missed Wall Street’s lofty earnings target. According to Nemer, Amazon captured 51% of all U.S. retail growth in Q4. He also said that the sell-off following the earnings release was too hasty and that the company continues to have strong fundamentals and a dominant position in the market. Scalper1 News

Scalper1 News