Scalper1 News
If you believe that breaking a record is always a good thing, you’re actually wrong. For instance, the price of crude has been on a record-breaking mode since mid-June last year. However, every record has been for the worse as oil prices could set only new lows. Last Wednesday, U.S. crude prices fell below the psychologically-resistant level of $40 for the first time since late August. The downward pressure intensified when last Friday the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – the international cartel of oil producers – decided not to cut oil production especially in the already over-supplied crude market. Obviously, this has spelled doom for investors who chose to hold on to their energy funds or stocks. For example Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #5 (Strong Sell) energy funds such as BlackRock Energy & Resources Inv A (MUTF: SSGRX ) and RS Global Natural Resources A (MUTF: RSNRX ) have nosedived 30.1% and 41.4% over the last one year, respectively. The agony is such that none of the energy funds under our coverage has a positive year-to-date or 1-year return. The least loss has come from Fidelity Select Energy Portfolio (MUTF: FSENX ), which is down 13.4% year to date and 17.7% over the last one year. However, we don’t want to sound too pessimistic as you gear up for your year-end celebrations. Losses in the energy sector can actually translate into gains for some other sectors. While auto and transportation are the direct beneficiaries, sectors such as retail, consumer discretionary and consumer staples also gain from low oil prices. So, investing in and profiting from favourably ranked mutual funds that focus on these sectors will make December merrier. The Recent Headwinds for Oil Last Wednesday, the U.S. government data revealed a 10th straight weekly increase in U.S. oil supplies. The federal government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) report revealed that crude inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels for the week ending Nov. 27, 2015. U.S. crude inventories are now at the highest level witnessed around this time of the year for the first time in 80 years. As a result, U.S. crude oil prices settled below $40 for the first time since August, while Brent crude oil plummeted to an almost 7-year low. A curb in production from the OPEC was most wanted to lift the already-low crude price. However before the meeting, OPEC decided to raise the ceiling of daily production from the prior level of 30 million barrels to 31.5 million barrels. The cartel was considering an output cut during the 7-hour meeting last Friday, but found that lowering of output only by the OPEC members will not be enough to lift oil prices. Crude plunged to settle below the $40 per barrel mark post meeting. WTI crude slipped nearly 3% to $39.97 per barrel. Oil Price to Move Further South? The slide in the price of crude has been quite dramatic given that it was hovering above $100 around a year ago. Several factors suggest that the end of the slump is nowhere near to be seen. Oversupply has distressed the industry for a long time now. This is due to two factors – the U.S. shale boom and OPEC’s decision to keep output unchanged despite the slump in prices. Lower consumption across the world is the reason for lower demand. Europe and Japan continue to struggle even as they make vigorous efforts to boost their flagging economies. But the biggest worry on this front is China. The world’s second largest economy may never again experience the pace of growth it witnessed until recently, leading to falling demand even in the long term. Funds to Enjoy Crude’s Loss Auto & Transportation: Fuel cost accounts for a considerable portion of expenses of the trucking companies. The U.S. trucking industry is currently poised to benefit in two ways. Lower oil prices will reduce their operating expenditure, thereby boosting the bottom line. On the other hand, capacity constraint in the form of driver shortage and new government regulations will drive top-line growth. A decline in oil prices is probably even more crucial for airlines. Lower jet fuel prices have been a boon for the airline industry given the inversely proportional relation between crude prices and the value of aviation stocks. Fidelity Select Automotive Portfolio (MUTF: FSAVX ) invests a majority of its assets in companies that manufacture, market and sell automobiles, trucks, specialty vehicles, parts, tires, and related services. The non-diversified fund invests in both US and non-US companies, primarily in common stocks. This Fidelity fund currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2 (Buy). Year-to-date, FSAVX has gained just 1.8%, but it is showing an increasing trend since late September. The 3- and 5-year annualized returns are 18.9% and 8.2%, respectively. Consumer Funds: Another class of stocks gaining from this phenomenon is consumer staples. The Federal Reserve has expressed satisfaction over an improvement in the labor market situation. However, its inflation target of 2% still seems some way off. This is again a result of lower oil prices. Lower inflation has led to a considerable fall in input costs. This again would cushion the bottom line. Fidelity Select Consumer Discretionary Portfolio (MUTF: FSCPX ) invests a lion’s share of its assets in securities of companies mostly involved in the consumer discretionary sector. FSCPX primarily invests in common stocks of companies all over the globe. Factors including financial strength and economic condition are considered before investing in a company. FSCPX currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy). FSCPX has gained 7.7% and 9.3% over year-to-date and 1-year period, respectively. The 3- and 5-year annualized returns are 18.6% and 14.7%, respectively. Putnam Global Consumer A (MUTF: PGCOX ) invests in mid-to-large companies that are involved in the manufacture, sale or distribution of consumer staples and consumer discretionary products and services. PGCOX uses the “blend” strategy to invest in common stocks of companies. PGCOX currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1. PGCOX has gained respectively 6.3% and 5.3% in the year-to-date and 1-year period. The 3- and 5-year annualized returns are 13.9% and 11%, respectively. Original Post Scalper1 News
Scalper1 News