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Hype about virtual reality is in full gear ahead of the launch of Facebook ’s ( FB ) Oculus Rift. But don’t be surprised if VR meets consumer disappointment at first, Baird analyst Colin Sebastian said in a research report Monday. Talk about virtual reality for video games was at a fever pitch last week at the Game Developers Conference in San Francisco, Sebastian said. But, he added, the Oculus, the Vive from HTC and Valve, and Sony ’s ( SNE ) PlayStation VR face a serious risk of a “trough of disappointment” post launch. “While we expect each of the three VR platforms will likely sell out of limited initial production/shipments, adoption among a broader consumer base will require lower prices, more attractive form factors and improved usability,” Sebastian said. “Additionally, we note there are still some issues with motion sickness.” He expects Oculus to sell 500,000 to 1 million units this year, which is less than consensus expectations for 1 million to 2 million units. Sony won’t hit the market with its VR headset until later this year, but its lower price and installed base of PlayStation 4 game consoles will give it a significant advantage, Sebastian said. The Oculus Rift is set to begin shipping on Monday in 20 countries, including the U.S. The Oculus headset costs $599 and requires a high-end PC with a graphics card. Bundles of the Oculus Rift and “Oculus-ready” PCs start at $1,499. The HTC Vive, a collaboration between smartphone maker HTC and video game developer Valve, is due to go on sale April 5 and cost $799. Like Oculus, Vive requires a high-end PC with a dedicated graphics processor. Sony announced last week that its PlayStation VR will go on sale in October in Asia, Europe and North America. The headset will be priced at $399 in the U.S. PlayStation VR users will need a PS4 game console, which now retails for about $350. Also, some games will require PlayStation Move and camera accessories to track players’ movements. Sony plans to sell a $500 bundle that includes the VR headset, two Move wand controllers, a PlayStation Camera and a “PlayStation VR Worlds” collection of themed mini-games. RELATED: Content Is King In The War For First Generation Virtual Reality Scalper1 News
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