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Marketing for 5G is revving up fast — well ahead of applicable wireless technology, which is moving from lab demos to field trials, with wide-scale commercialization years off. And 5G marketing is moving a lot faster at Verizon Communications ( VZ ) than at AT&T ( T ). Verizon in September declared its intention to be a global leader, and the first in the U.S., in rolling out a 5G wireless network. In September, Verizon said that its 5G wireless technology would be 50 times faster than its current 4G network, which is engineered to provide average data speeds in a range of 8 to 12 megabits per second (Mbps) during peak usage in urban markets. In January, Verizon CEO Lowell McAdam raised the bar. He touted 5G networks’ one-gigabit-per-second speed. That’s roughly 100 times faster than Verizon’s average 4G speed of 10 Mbps. It’s not clear, analysts say, whether McAdam was referring to peak or average 5G speeds. On Verizon’s Q4 earnings call, CFO Fran Shammo brought up its commitment to 5G numerous times. But on AT&T’s 4Q earnings call Jan. 26, not a word about 5G was heard. Said Shammo: “We are currently at the forefront globally talking about standards. We will be the first company to roll 5G out in the U.S., and we are currently preparing for (2016) field trials.” AT&T management’s latest public comment on 5G came at a Citigroup conference in early January. John Donovan, AT&T’s senior executive vice president of technology and operations, said that 4G networks still seem fast enough for most customers. “Speed has not been a big, successful marketing program recently,” he said, perhaps alluding to a wireless industry price war spurred by T-Mobile US ( TMUS ) and Sprint ( S ). AT&T has filed with regulators to test 5G services in Austin, Texas. Donovan indicated that AT&T may prefer waiting until the cost of 5G network equipment goes down as global manufacturing ramps up. First, standards need to be set, perhaps around 2018-19, analysts say. “We haven’t been overly public because what we want to do is — we want to keep the optionality of being early, mid- or on the back end (of deployment), depending on whether we’re going to optimize to (network) speed, capacity or cost,” Donovan said. While speed matters, analysts say that 5G will also be defined by new capabilities, such as streaming data to and from self-driving cars or to high-flying civilian drones. Verizon has touted plans to roll out 5G commercially in 2017, though its reach could be very limited. By being an early player in 5G, Verizon aims to influence industry standards. Many wireless firms — network gear makers such as Nokia ( NOK ) and Ericsson ( ERIC ), and chipmakers like Qualcomm ( QCOM ), Intel ( INTC ) and Samsung — have the same goal. Europe, South Korea, Japan and China all have 5G initiatives under way. S. Korea plans large-scale 5G testing around the 2018 Winter Olympics. In Japan, NTT DoCoMo ( DCM ) is gearing up for 2020. 5G will be a hot topic at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona on Feb. 22 to 25. The arrival of 5G networks is important to gear makers because global capital spending on wireless networks is expected to be flat or down until deployment picks up. “Small-cell” radio antennas, which increase network capacity in urban areas, and software-defined network (SDN) technology are expected to be at the core of 5G deployments. Verizon has been pushing the Federal Communications Commission to allocate airwaves in very high radio frequency bands, above 24 GHz and around 37 GHz, to help jump-start 5G deployment. The U.S. regulatory process to dole out 5G spectrum could take a few years. The next World Radiocommunication Conference, where 5G spectrum allocation is expected to be discussed, isn’t until 2019. While many countries are looking at high frequencies, one view is that 5G services could surface earlier in bands below 6GHz. In that case, networks could continue using interfaces designed for LTE gear. The industry in late 2015 approved an interim “4.5” standard that carries the marketing term “LTE-Advanced Pro.” 5G deployment could take two tracks, says Tristan Gerra, an analyst at R.W. Baird, in a report. He says that a version of LTE could be marked as 5G early on, until higher-bandwidth “real” 5G is ready commercially. What’s clear is that 4G networks aren’t going away anytime soon. Research firm Ovum forecasts that by 2020, 3.62 million people will subscribe to services delivered via 4G LTE networks, up from 1.05 billion in 2015. Ericsson predicts 150 million 5G subscriptions worldwide by 2021. Verizon says that it does not expect 5G networks to replace the existing 4G ones. Consumers will still be viewing Netflix ( NFLX ) on Apple ( AAPL ) iPhones and other devices for a long time. Verizon plans to overlay 5G capabilities in markets, most likely urban areas, to provide ubiquitous street coverage for self-driving cars and other emerging uses. Verizon’s partners include Alcatel-Lucent ( ALU ), Ericsson, Cisco Systems ( CSCO ), Nokia, Qualcomm and Samsung. Verizon has been working with carriers in Japan and South Korea as well. “(Verizon believes that) one of the primary reasons why Japanese carriers are at the forefront of 5G is because cities like Tokyo and Seoul benefit from high levels of densification,” said Amir Rozwadowski, a Barclays analyst in a report. While speed matters, wireless firms are also providing service for applications that require always-on, low-data-rate connections. The apps involve data-gathering industrial sensors, home appliances and other devices oft referred to as parts of the Internet of Things. Image provided by Shutterstock . Scalper1 News
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