Scalper1 News
For several years now, I have been recommending that investors put a somewhat higher emphasis on two categories of stock funds/ETFs, namely Large Value and International, along with a lower emphasis on domestic Large Growth and Small-/Mid-Cap. The reason is straightforward to me although less than obvious for most: While the former two categories have consistently trailed US broad stock benchmarks over the last several years, the latter two have at times exceeded them. In the sometimes upside down world of fund investing, there is a tendency, usually after a considerable number of years, for underperforming and relatively weak performing categories to switch places with the well-performing ones. The same is true for ETFs. Finally, after some trepidation that the approach was not working as expected, except in the case of Small-Cap funds which have indeed gone from being stellar performers to among the weakest over at least the last year, it now appears that the strategy may be beginning to pay off. However, it has been a frustratingly long wait, although an interval of one or two years for such an expected turnaround should not be regarded as particularly unusual. Large Value I believe the long expected rotation to value stocks may now be underway. So far this year, all three value stock category averages, Large, Mid-Cap, and Small, are running well ahead of their three growth stock brethren categories. The average Large Cap Value fund is outperforming the average Large Cap Growth fund by over 4%. While such a short spurt may not in itself seem significant, on a quarterly basis one has to go back consecutive 29 quarters, to the third quarter of 2008, to see an outperformance by Large Value over Large Growth that is that large. Note: Performance figures cited are through Apr. 20 unless otherwise noted. If Large Cap Value funds continue to outperform Large Cap Growth at the same pace for the rest of the year, there would be a huge 12% spread by year’s end. While such a large disparity might seem highly unlikely, it cannot be totally dismissed. If you compare the performance of two Vanguard index funds, Vanguard Index Value (MUTF: VIVAX ) and Vanguard Index Growth (MUTF: VIGRX ) as proxies for each of these categories, you will see that over the last 9 years, going back to May 1, 2007, Value has gone from a NAV (Net Asset Value) of 27.85 to only 33.03 for a cumulative gain of 18.6% (not annualized, excluding dividends). Growth, on the other hand, has gone from a NAV of 31.44 to 55.64 for a gain of 77.0%. The difference is a whopping 58.4%. When averaged out over the 9 years, VIGRX has exceeded VIVAX by about 6.5% per year. You would find the same discrepancies if you looked at the ETF equivalents of these funds, Vanguard Value ETF (NYSEARCA: VTV ) and Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSEARCA: VUG ), since they encompass the identical portfolios as these mutual funds. Since Large Value has been so far behind, merely gaining back one year of this outperformance for the rest of this year would bring it close to an 11% outperformance of Large Growth. However, it seems far more likely that the category will see smaller outperformances over quite a few of a number of upcoming years to enable it to eventually catch up to Large Growth. I, for one, believe such an equalization is reasonable to expect. In fact, history shows that value stocks tend to be better long-term performers than growth stocks, supporting the potential for a big upcoming turnaround. What else might argue for my suggested Large Value overweighting? Evidence suggests that as the Fed raises interest rates which they already have begun to do, value stocks tend to get stronger. (For a further discussion of this, see the following article .) Further, with growth stocks having reached a greater degree of overvaluation in the recent past than value stocks (although each category is more fairly valued now), Large Growth stocks would seem more likely to suffer if and when investors become unnerved and decide that they need to protect their profits. International Stocks Even more severe than the long-term underperformance of value stocks has been that of International funds/ETFs. When one compares the performance of the average International category fund with that of the S&P 500 index over the last 10 years (thru Mar. 31), one finds an annualized total return for the foreign category of 1.8% vs 7.0% for the US-only index. Emerging Market funds have done only slightly better at 2.5%. Is there any sign of a possible turnaround here? While only tentative given the short time period, a proxy for the entire International category, the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund (MUTF: VGTSX ), has gone from a NAV of 12.87 on 01/20/2016 to 14.98 on 4/20 for a 16.4% gain over 3 mos. Looking back over its quarterly returns, one has to go back to the 3rd quarter of 2010 (21 consecutive quarters ending this past Dec.) to find a gain that big. The same can be said for emerging markets. Looking at the Vanguard Emerging Mkts. Index Fund (MUTF: VEIEX ), the NAV has gone from 18.06 on 01/21/2016 to 22.38 on 4/20 for a gain of 23.9%. To find a closely comparable quarterly gain, one would need to go back to the 3rd quarter of 2009 (25 consecutive quarters, ending this past Dec.). Once again, you would get essentially the same results as above with Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (NASDAQ: VXUS ) and Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: VWO ). For both Large Value and International stocks, while not proof that a longer-term turnaround will be forthcoming, the data seem to be possibly suggesting that these categories of funds/ETFs will be better places to emphasize within a diversified portfolio over the next few years. With International stocks, and especially emerging markets relatively undervalued, these categories of funds/ETFs would appear more appealing than US-only stock funds when looking at annualized return potentials over at least the next several years. Still, there can be many “false dawns” where a category seems to be making a comeback but, not much later, falls back again. And, even if the outperformances I expect occur, it may not mean excellent absolute returns but only relatively better returns than the aforementioned competing categories. But especially when viewed over the longer term, an approach that incorporates the notion of comebacks by underperforming categories often seems to be an effective strategy when deciding which funds to emphasize within portfolio whenever considering periodic changes. But turnarounds don’t just happen because one “thinks” they should happen. The necessary ingredient is typically that the category in question has either become under-/overvalued, or, a major and usually unexpected development occurs within the markets that creates a nearly totally new mindset in investors, or both. While the second of these conditions is almost impossible to predict and is relatively rare, the first can be recognized by investors who are willing to pay close attention to relatively extreme over- or under-performance within the category averages. Disclosure: I am/we are long IN ALL OF THE MUTUAL FUNDS MENTIONED. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Scalper1 News
Scalper1 News