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In the ongoing debate about whether stocks are cheap or too expensive, the bears got some assurance from news that insider selling is on the rise. Investors often watch what insiders do because insiders are supposed to be better informed about their companies than the rest of us. So if insiders are selling, it must be because they know stocks are overvalued. Right? Not necessarily. I’m in the camp that believes stocks in general are too expensive right now. I would not be surprised to see another round of insider selling in the near future. Yet insider selling activity has no bearing on my view. On the contrary, I believe insider selling tells us very little about overvaluation. That’s because there are so many reasons why insiders might sell stock. A conviction that the stock is overvalued is only one possibility. Insiders might sell stock simply to raise cash. After all, insiders sometimes receive a relatively large proportion of their total compensation in the form of stock or options. Actual cash might make up a smaller proportion. So if these insiders want to buy a new home or send their kids to college, they might sell stock to raise cash. Insiders might also sell stock to diversify. It’s simply too risky for anyone to have all of their labor and most of their wealth tied up in just one company. It makes perfect sense for insiders to sell stock every once in a while to spread their wealth into other assets. Here’s yet one more reason why insiders might sell. Many employees are compensated at least in part with stock options. As a result, they can get hit with a tax liability when they exercise their options. They might sell some of the stock they received from exercising the options just to pay Uncle Sam. That’s not to say that a sudden spike in the amount of insider selling couldn’t be something to worry about. However, knowing that there are so many reasons why insiders might sell, I have to conclude that insider selling activity is not a useful signal of a market top. Insider buying is another story entirely. There are many reasons why insiders might sell, but there is only one major reason why insiders would buy. They buy because they believe the stock is undervalued. It’s true that a new member of the board of directors might be encouraged to buy some stock just for appearance’s sake, but that’s an exception to the rule. If insiders are using their own cash to buy stock, that a bullish signal. This just happened at one of the companies on my Bottom Line’s Money Masters recommended stock list. This company recently announced quarterly earnings that fell short of expectations. As often happens in such cases, the stock sold off in response. Yet my analysis convinced me that this stock is extremely undervalued. Apparently, several insiders agree. At least five of them purchased shares following the selloff. The CEO bought the most, spending $185,000 of his own money. That might not seem like a lot, but he didn’t acquire the stock as a result of an employee ownership plan or the exercise of options. He made a direct purchase on the open market using real cash. This CEO already owned a large stake in the company. The fact that he is willing to add to that stake should send a clear signal to other shareholders that the guy running the company is convinced the stock is cheap – so convinced that he is putting his money where his mouth is. Scalper1 News
Scalper1 News