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Portugal may have decided to end its EU support too soon. The domestic corporate structure is too diversified, involving many holding companies. The private banking system has remained weakened by a 2014 default. For Europe’s smaller economies, European Union membership, as well as adopting the Euro has been a double edged sword. The idea was for commerce to have the same ease of access similar to the United States of America. Imagine, if you will, what it would be like if goods in Pennsylvania had to make border stops, use passports or visas and pay tariffs as they crossed the New Jersey, then New York, then Connecticut state’s borders! It’s difficult to imagine, but that’s essentially how European nations conducted cross border business before the EEC. Without those ‘technical, legal and bureaucratic barriers’, smaller European economies, such as Portugal, not only had an unimaginably large market for its products, but now had a new employment opportunities for its citizens as well as the potential to expand its manufacturing and financial services base. The ‘icing on the EU cake’ was being able to do away with unstable legacy currencies and adopt the Euro, further leveling the playing field. Indeed, the EU economy expanded pulling along the smaller economies but at an unsustainable rate. When the global credit market collapsed in 2008, the other edge of the sword cut smaller economies to pieces, causing a deep recession, high unemployment and unsustainable debt to GDP ratios, literally putting many governments on the edge of bankruptcy. Since then, the EU has had a slow, uneven recovery. However, having the support of the larger community, many smaller economies have pulled back from the brink of disaster. This is the point: is this the right time to establish a position in the smaller EU economies, such as Portugal? If the investor wished to, there seems to be one available ETF: the Global X FTSE Portugal 20 ETF (NYSEARCA: PGAL ) . The premise for risking your hard earned savings is based on the old Wall Street premise to ” buy low and sell high .” The question is whether the worst is over for Portugal and what the potential is, versus the risk. If a picture is worth a thousand words, the potential for capital appreciation might be interpreted by the fund’s chart since inception in November of 2013. (click to enlarge) The fund closed its first day of trading at $15.05. Within four months the ETF gained 22.8%. At that time, the entire EU economy was struggling with deflation. At the June meeting, ECB President Draghi imposed negative interest rates. Portugal was experiencing a nascent recovery. Portugal’s sovereigns had also recovered. Now able to finance the government on its own to meet its budget the government passed on a scheduled final EU bailout tranche. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble noted that: Portugal is now managing without European aid and can stand on its own two feet. That’s a big success. However, within months, a subsidiary of one of Portugal’s major financial institutions missed a debt repayment. Banco Espirito Santo ( OTCPK:BKESY ) , the parent company, had its shares suspended from trading. The Portuguese stock market fell sharply. The default put the entire Portuguese banking system into question. This is an important issue to understand before investing in Portugal through the fund. However, Portugal’s economic stability goes further than the banks. It’s worth examining the fund’s holdings. First, it’s difficult to separate the fund into sectors. For example although classified as a Telecommunications services company, Sonacom (OTC: OTC:SOVTY ) also provides IT services with software and system information services. Sonae Capital (OTC: OTC:SGPMY ) is listed separately as a Consumer Discretionary company and also as a Consumer non-cyclical. Sonae is in the Hospitality and Recreation industry as well as retail food services, superstores, supermarkets, and drug stores. The Sonae brands fall under the management of one holding company. On a larger scale this is not out of the ordinary. However, this seems typical in Portugal’s small economy. Consumer non-cyclical and Discretionary Symbol Market Cap (USD Billions) Yield Payout Ratio P/E Price to Cash flow Total Debt to Equity Primary Business Jeronimo Martins OTCPK:JRONY $7.520 1.86% NA 26.97 13.38 23.84 Retail food, distribution; supermarkets, drug stores. Portugal and Poland Sonae SGPMY $2.00 3.30% 38.03 11.46 6.04 61.62 Retail food; superstores, supermarkets, franchise outlets; sporting goods, fashion and electronics Sonae Capital SGPMY $0.101 0.00% 0.00% 150 6.49 42.82 Tourism and Hospitality; resorts, marina, catering, fitness and golf courses Second, the quality of the Financial Services metrics indicates the underlying weakness in the sector. It was difficult to determine any metrics of Banif Banco Internacion do Fuchal (Lisbon: Banif) as it is a privately held company. The bank provides a broad range of banking services from retail to corporate, as well as asset management and insurance. Another of the holdings is Banco Espirto Santo ( OTCPK:BKESF ) , the bank which triggered Portugal’s banking crises shortly after the government had successfully restored its credibility in the sovereign debt market. Financial Symbol Market Cap (USD Billions) Yield Payout Ratio P/E Price to Cash flow Total Debt to Equity Primary Business Banco BPI OTCPK:BBSPY $1.46 0.00% 0.00% 82.27 9.54 57.63 Banking Services; corporate, institutional, retail, insurance, credit cards. Subsidiaries in Angola and Mozambique Banco Commercial Portugues OTCPK:BPCGY $2.85 0.00% 0.00% 67.95 11.94 149.69 Privately owned; financial services; asset management, mortgages, consumer credit, insurance Banco Espirito Santo Lisbon: BES $0.613 0.00 0.00 NA NA 237.84 Domestic, corporate and retail banking; credit cards, debit cards, savings accounts, management and insurance One bright spot is the Utilities sector, two of the holdings having respectable yields and one of those has a sustainable payout ratio. Utility Symbol Market Cap (USD Billions) Yield Payout Ratio P/E Price to Cash flow Total Debt to Equity Primary Business Energias de Portugal OTC:ELCPF $9.64 5.39% 17.64% of cash flow 11.69 3.62 225.55 Electric and gas in Portugal and Spain Renovaveis OTC:EDRVF $5.22 0.61% 47.56% 34.57 7.25 81.00 Spain based; renewable energy; hydro, wind, solar, tidal and biomass; EU, Brazil, Canada and US Redes Energeticas Naciona OTC:RENZF $0.810 6.14% 14.6% of cash flow 9.52 2.47 206.08 High voltage transmission; electricity; natural gas transmission and storage Portugal’s Basic Materials is concentrated in cements and cement related products. What is a very interesting feature of Portugal’s industrial Sector is its presence in Africa as well as South America, particularly in Brazil. On one hand this is a ‘plus’ as these companies provide their services in regions with a high growth potential like Egypt and South Africa. On the other had the investments in Brazil presents a problem for the fund as Brazil’s economy has recently been brought to a halt, along with a sharp currency devaluation, because of the collapse of commodity prices as well as a political scandal. Basic Materials Symbol Market Cap (USD Billions) Yield Payout Ratio P/E Price to Cash flow Total Debt to Equity Primary Business Portucel Lisbon: PTI $2.68 11.26% 104.94 14.42 9.26 47.89 Paper pulp, craft pulp Cimpor-Cimentos De Portugal OTC:CDPGY $0.320 0.55% nil 17.10 1.58 503.71 Cement and aggregate (clinker); ready-mix; Portugal, Egypt, Cape Verde, Angola, Mozembique, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay The Telecom Services are run-of-the-mill as far as the Telecom Sectors go. However it does present another example which lends to the confusion of how some holdings should be classified. Pharol (OTC: OTCPK:PTGCY ) is described as a ‘capital management company’ with a 27% holding interest in Brazilian Telecom Oi (Brazil: OIBR4) . Pharol seems to be more of a hedge fund specializing in the Telecommunications Services Sector, while also investing in other holding companies. Telecom Symbol Market Cap (USD Billions) Yield Payout Ratio P/E Price to Cash flow Total Debt to Equity Primary Business NOS SGPS OTCPK:ZONMY $3.53 1.86% 72.07% 45.12 8.81 98.06 Cable, Satellite, movies, series sports and children programming, mobile and landline voice, data Pharol SGPS PTGCY $0.338 24.10% NA NA NA 0.00 Capital management of Brazilian and Portuguese Telecoms Sonacom SOVTY $0.598 2.13% 30% of cash flow 14.15 12.63 0.94 Telecom mobile and landline; voice, data, television; also some IT software and system information Portugal’s industrials are focused on paper-pulp manufacturing. There are three paper-pulp manufactures in the fund, two of which fit into the Industrials Sector and one in Materials. There’s one major construction company, Mota Engil (OTC: OTC:MTELY ) providing engineering and construction including transportation infrastructure and then managing those projects after completion. Industrials Symbol Market Cap (USD Billions) Yield Payout Ratio P/E Price to Cash flow Total Debt to Equity Primary Business Correios de Portugal OTC:CTTPY $1.295 4.89% NA 18.95 14.70 0.57 Courier services, parcel delivery; financial services, transfers, money orders, digital mail Altri SGPS OTC:ASGSY $0.890 1.68% 74% of cash flow 9.87 6.56 192.25 Paper pulp; generates electricity from waste biomass Semapa-Sociedade de Investimento e Gestao OTC:SEMMY $0.967 2.88% 40.50 14.29 3.18 NA Paper pulp, cement, pre-casts, recycling of cooking oil. Tunisia, Angola, Poland, France Mota Engil SGPS OTC:MTELY $0.445 5.02% 12.8% of cash flow 15.26 2.50 485.19 Engineering, Construction; Environment and Transportation construction and management Lastly, there’s one position in the energy sector, a holding company, GALP Energia (OTC: OTC:GLPEF ) . Galp Energia produces, refines and markets gasoline and petroleum products. Another segment provides oil exploration services in 40 countries. Energy Symbol Market Cap (USD Billions) Yield Payout Ratio P/E Price to Cash flow Total Debt to Equity Primary Business GALP Energia GLPEF $7.06 3.78% N/A N/A 12.74 65.61 Holding Company, energy exploration, production As far as the fund metrics, management fees total 0.61% compared to the industry average of 0.44%. It’s a small fund with about $37.5 million in net assets. Since its November 2013 inception its cumulative return is -26.85% and an average annualized return of -14.70%. The price to earnings for 2015 is 15.37 and price to book 1.35. When referring back to the price history chart, it looks like the fund might be a really good opportunity for a capital appreciation investment. However, upon closer inspection, it was really too far out in front of its potential when it reached its all-time high of $18.48. Further, the private banking sector really needed a restructuring before the government ended the EU restructuring program, as Portugal’s domestic banking crises demonstrates. Some events of the banking crisis are noted on the chart. The price earnings ratio of the holdings weren’t all that bad. Excluding from the count any holding for which the data wasn’t available, and any extreme numbers, it averaged out to 26.20 which doesn’t seem too bad. However, many holdings would not be marginable in US equities markets, in particular, being priced below $5.00 per share. This raises another point. The combination of a low P/E and a low stock price may be an indication of ‘fair value’. Hence, the fund may be close to fair value at this level. It’s unlikely that Portugal’s economy can generate enough investment interest in the foreseeable future in order for the fund to work its way back to the 2014 high. On the bright side, this is a situation where the EU benefits the smaller economies, as it’s a potential safety net for the economy, if it’s necessary. In the current situation, Portugal is now attempting to restructure a weak banking system without direct EU support. An analogy may be made here between Portugal’s economy and the Greek economy. They are in similar straits; however the Greek government has (with difficulties) stuck with the EU bailout program. Portugal may have to reestablish its commitment to the EU restructuring plan. This would be a good fund to ‘bookmark’, and follow the news and events; however, it might not be the right time to establish a position. Scalper1 News
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