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RSX – October Review: First Positive Month After 5 Months Of Declines

Summary RSX grew by 6.4% in October, after 5 consecutive months of losses. The Bank of Russia expects that the inflation rate should decline by half by late 2016. If the prediction of lower inflation is correct, the Bank of Russia will start to cut the interest rates notably. The October Russian share market optimism may evaporate rather quickly if it won’t be supported by a positive oil price development. After five consecutive months of losses, share price of the Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSEARCA: RSX ) increased in October. During the first half of the month, RSX grew from $15.7 to $17.75. Although it declined to $16.71 during the second half of October, RSX finished the month up by 6.43%. The growth was fueled by slightly higher commodity prices in early October. Although oil and metals prices started to decline again in late October, the share market was supported by an improved economic outlook. The minister of economic development said that Russian GDP should decline by 3.9% in 2015 but it should grow by 0.7% next year. Russia still has trouble with a high level of inflation that stands at 15.7%. But the Bank of Russia expects that the inflation rate will start to decline steeply by early 2016. If this prediction turns out to be right, the Bank of Russia will keep on cutting the interest rates. These expectations helped to support the Ruble exchange rate as well as the Russian share market. Also the situation in Ukraine is calm, there are no major fights anymore. Some significant changes regarding RSX’s composition occurred in October. Sberbank ( OTCPK:SBRCY ) became the biggest holding when the steep growth of the share price lifted the weight of the biggest Russian bank to 8.16%. Also weights of Gazprom ( OTCPK:OGZPY ) and Lukoil ( OTCPK:LUKOY ) increased. Weight of the biggest Russian food retailer, Magnit, declined from 7.31% at the end of September to 6.59% at the end of October. The Top 15 holdings represent 75.34% of RSX’s portfolio. Source: own processing, using data from vaneck.com Russian shares did very well in October. The biggest winner is Yandex (NASDAQ: YNDX ). Shares of the biggest Russian search engine provider rocketed by 50%, as the Q3 results have beaten expectations, the company has increased its 2015 guidance, and it has become the default search engine for Windows 10 in Russia, Ukraine and Turkey. Shares of the two biggest Russian banks, Sberbank and VTB, grew by 24% and 9% respectively. On the other hand, shares of Magnit lost 4.71% of value, as the food retailer announced a decline of net income by 28% y-o-y. Source: own processing, using data from Bloomberg The chart below shows the 10-day moving correlations between RSX and oil prices represented by the United States Oil ETF (NYSEARCA: USO ) and between RSX and the S&P 500. During the first decade of October, RSX grew along with USO; however, after USO began to decline, it didn’t drag RSX down. Similarly, RSX didn’t react to the jump of oil prices in late October. As a result, the correlation between RSX and USO was relatively low during the second half of the month. The correlation between RSX and the S&P 500 was very high and stable from late August to the middle of October, but it has declined rapidly over the last two weeks. It means that as a result, RSX was moving in its own direction over the last decade of October, without taking into account the oil market or the global financial market developments. Source: own processing, using data from Yahoo Finance The volatility of RSX was relatively high during the first half of October, but it declined significantly in the middle of the month and the end of October was relatively calm. On the other hand, as shown by the chart below, the Russian share market is highly volatile and the volatility eruptions are relatively regular. Source: own processing, using data from Yahoo Finance Some of the more interesting news: Yandex reported better than expected Q3 2015 financial results and increased the 2015 guidance. Yandex also announced that it added an online video streaming service to its film and TV recommendation service. An important news came on October 13, when Yandex announced that its search engine will become the default homepage and search engine for Windows 10 in Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Belarus, Kazakhstan and several other countries in the region. This strategic partnership may help Yandex in its fight with Google (NASDAQ: GOOG ) (NASDAQ: GOOGL ), over market share in Russia. Norilsk Nickel ( OTCPK:NILSY ) announced that since the start of its buyback program, it purchased 1,186,534 ordinary shares for a total amount of approximately $186 million. The company has also announced a successful placement of $1 billion in eurobonds . The 7-year bonds bear an annual interest rate of 6.625%. Norilsk Nickel has also secured a $1.2 billion credit facility from Sberbank. Via an asset swap , Gazprom strengthened its position in the European gas storage and sales segment. It has also expanded its exploration and production activities in the North Sea. Gazprom also started construction of the Ukhta-Torzhok-2 gas pipeline that will feed natural gas to Nord Stream 2. Polyus Gold announced that the Independent Committee of the Board reiterated its opinion that the takeover offer of $2.97 per share offered by Sacturino Limited is too low. Lukoil announced that it discovered a large gas field in the Romanian deep sea offshore. Drilling intersected a 46-meter thick productive interval. The seismic data indicates that the area of the gas field can reach up to 39km 2 and it may contain 30 billion m 3 of natural gas. The voices against the anti-Russian sanctions keep on growing. The President of the European Commission, Jeaun-Claude Juncker declared that Europe must improve its relationship with Russia: We must make efforts towards a practical relationship with Russia. Russia must be treated decently. We can’t let our relationship with Russia be dictated by Washington. Conclusion Some positive macroeconomic news, the stabilized RUB/USD exchange rate and little higher oil prices supported RSX in October. Also the political situation keeps on improving as the situation in Ukraine is calm and some of the EU representatives indicate that the anti-Russian sanctions may end soon. But also stronger oil prices are important for further growth of RSX’s share price. If the oil price keeps on improving, November may be positive for RSX as well. Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.

The Alerian MLP ETF Could Be Appealing To Income-Seeking Investors

MLPs remain one of the few assets suitable for generating income in the zero interest rate environment. The Alerian MLP ETF offers a way to gain access to a diversified MLP portfolio without the credit risk of an ETN. Most of the ETF’s assets are pipeline companies, which have proven quite resistant to the decline in oil prices. The future outlook of pipeline companies is quite bright. The Alerian MLP ETF does not pass through the usual tax benefits of these assets, but retirement investors will not get them anyway. Historically, one of the best sources of income for retirees has been master limited partnerships, which are business structures that have some similarities to real estate investment trusts or business development companies but which operate primarily in the energy space. As a result of being primarily energy companies, the recent declines in both oil and natural gas prices have caused investors to largely flee from these assets. However, many master limited partnerships have not been significantly affected by the decline in energy prices and this could be creating an opportunity for income-focused investors to generate outsized profits. One of the best ways that an individual investor can take advantage of this opportunity is by purchasing units of the Alerian MLP ETF (NYSEARCA: AMLP ). Master limited partnerships are business entities designed to combine the taxation benefits of a limited partnership with the liquidity of a publicly-traded security. The most significantly of these taxation benefits is that a master limited partnership is considered to be a “pass-through” entity, which means that not only is an investor’s proportionate share of the company’s earnings taxed at the investor’s ordinary income tax rate (and not taxed at all at the company level), but also that the investor’s proportionate share of the company’s depreciation and amortization can also be deducted against this, reducing an investor’s tax liability. In order to obtain these tax benefits, there are only a few industries that a master limited partnership is permitted to operate in, per IRS rules. These industries are the production, processing, and transportation of crude oil, coal, or natural gas. Unfortunately, there are two caveats here. The first is that investors that hold units of a master limited partnership in a tax-advantaged account, such as an IRA, lose the ability to deduct their proportionate share of the firm’s depreciation and amortization expenses. The second is that investors that hold their partnership interests in a unit investment trust, fund, or ETF also lose this ability. Therefore, investors in the Alerian MLP ETF lose some of the tax benefits of investing in master limited partnerships directly. However, as we will shortly see, that may not be a significant concern. As the price of oil and, to a lesser extent, natural gas declined over the past sixteen months, the unit prices of many master limited partnerships have been under pressure. However, what the market has not considered is that many of the largest master limited partnerships are midstream pipeline operators and not exploration and production companies. For example, here are the largest holdings of the Alerian MLP ETF: (click to enlarge) Source: Morningstar, Yahoo! Finance, Company Web Pages As the table shows, nearly all of the significant holdings of the Alerian MLP ETF are pipeline operators. In addition, for most of them, natural gas transportation is a much larger aspect of their operations than crude oil transportation, although many of these companies do operate several different types of pipeline. Notice however that few of these companies actually produce oil and natural gas themselves. This gives them an advantage in the current market. This is because of the way that the pipeline industry works. Unlike upstream oil and gas producers, pipeline companies have no direct exposure to the prices of the commodities that they transport. Instead, these companies are simply paid a fixed rate, often under a long-term contract, by the oil and gas company that actually produced the commodity to transport it over their network. These prices, aside from generally being contractually set, are also not completely subject to market forces. This is because the rates that pipeline operators charge their customers are regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which typically sets rates at a level that will allow pipeline operators to enjoy relatively stable margins. Thus, there will not be significant fluctuations in rates regardless of moves in commodity prices. While pipeline operators, such as those that comprise the majority of the holdings of the Alerian MLP ETF, are largely insulated from fluctuations in commodity prices, they are vulnerable to changes in the quantity of oil, gas, and refined products shipped through their pipeline networks. This is because, as already mentioned, their customers pay a relatively fixed rate for each of a given quantity of the commodity shipped through their pipeline network. In some ways, it can be considered analogous to a consumer’s electric bill, in which the consumer pays a fixed rate for each unit of electricity consumed. Therefore, a decline in the quantity of oil, natural gas, or refined products shipped through their respective pipelines would result in a reduction of revenues. Fortunately, it does not appear likely that this scenario will occur. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, worldwide liquids demand growth is expected to exceed production growth over the next year. While global inventories increased at an average pace of 2.3 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2015 compared to an average of 1.8 million barrels per day in the first, this is expected to slow to an average of 1.5 million barrels per day in the second half of 2015 and then to 0.8 million barrels per day in 2016. Source: Energy Information Administration It is a similar situation in the United States. According to the Energy Information Administration , the nation’s consumption of petroleum and related products will remain relatively stable until 2040, while consumption of natural gas is expected to increase from today’s levels over the same period. In addition, oil production over the same period is expected to remain relatively stable while natural gas production is expected to rise. This will result in steady to increasing business for the pipeline companies. (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration As I mentioned earlier in this article, investors using retirement accounts (or other tax-advantaged accounts) cannot take advantage of the tax benefits of investing in a master limited partnership. The same is true of investors in the Alerian MLP ETF. However, there is the potential for tax consequences if a master limited partnership is held in a tax-advantaged account. This is known as the unrelated business income tax and it takes effect if the income generated by a master limited partnership came from a business activity that such companies are normally not permitted to engage in. While it is rare for a master limited partnership to do this, it is theoretically possible and if so, the tax advantages of a retirement account do not apply to that income. An investor in the Alerian MLP ETF will not be subject to this tax, should it occur. Most investors that are seeking retirement income are investing in retirement accounts and so therefore are unable to take advantage of the inherent tax benefits of master limited partnerships anyway. For these investors, the ETF may be an excellent alternative. Its 9.43% dividend yield is practically unheard of in the current market and its stable underlying asset base should provide some security to investors. This fund could be worth a look.

DON: A Typical Mid-Cap ETF Presented As A Dividend ETF

Summary DON offers a dividend yield of 2.45%. It just isn’t high enough to make me think of this as a compelling dividend investment. The individual company allocations are reasonable for preventing diversifiable risk. The expense ratio is simply too high for my tastes. The sector allocation strikes me as being too volatile. Looking at historical performance confirms the higher volatility of the fund. It delivered great performance, but it was compensation for risk. The WisdomTree MidCap Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: DON ) is a weird fund that doesn’t quite seem to go together for me. I’ve seen quite a few good dividend ETFs lately and started to wonder if my standards were simply slipping. It seems I was just due for finding one that didn’t work for me. Expenses The expense ratio is a .38%. This is quite a bit too high for my tastes. Dividend Yield The dividend yield is currently running 2.45%. Is that really a dividend ETF? I’m not convinced so far. Am I just having a grumpy night? Who knows, but I’m expecting dividend yields to exceed 2.5% even in this low interest rate environment. Some of my ETF holdings have yields over 2.5% without any emphasis on the dividend yield. Holdings I put grabbed the following chart to demonstrate the weight of the top 10 holdings: (click to enlarge) The thing I do love about these allocations are that the diversification across individual companies is excellent. There are very few companies with a weight higher than 1%, so any scandal event would be unlikely to cost an investor a substantial portion of their portfolio. I do like seeing Coach (NYSE: COH ) as a top holding and I certainly don’t mind their dividend yield being greater than 4%. The question may be how many low dividend holdings are included in the fund to drive the fund yield below 2.5%? Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ: MAT ) has a dividend yield greater than 6%. I’ll have to admit that when the dividend yield gets that high I have to start questioning the sustainability of the dividend. I prefer dividend growth to always be positive. Negative growth just doesn’t offer the same appeal. Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI ) is another solid yielding stock at 3.55% and they recently delivered a solid earnings beat from their “OG TO GO” program which allows customers to pick up food from Olive Garden to go. The program is excellent because it allows the company to expand the volume of sales without requiring substantial capital expenditures in new seating areas. Lately quite a few of the restaurants I cover have been trying to figure out how to deal with increased traffic because they just don’t have enough seating room. Of course, it is possible to handle that problem by raising prices but the competitive nature of the casual restaurant industry is incredibly fierce to companies that opt to give customers less value for their money. Sectors (click to enlarge) I don’t like it. That’s got to be one of the most frank assessments you’ve heard on sector allocations and it is precisely accurate. I really don’t like this sector allocation whatsoever for a dividend ETF. There is a very heavy emphasis on financials and consumer discretionary. The allocation to utilities is nice at 13%, and I don’t mind industrials at 14.04%, but I’d rather see financials and consumer discretionary at the bottom of the list. I’d like to see consumer staples and health care with heavy allocations. Neither of them got the nod. There is nothing wrong with this sector allocation for a typical mid-cap ETF , but I’d rather see it named along those lines. Generally speaking I find the mid-cap space to be more volatile than the large cap space and I’d rather feel that the holdings within that part of the market were going to be safer holdings. That makes me double down on the importance of using heavy allocations to consumer staples. This portfolio is designed in such a manner that makes it simply feel too risky for investors that are focused on dividends and growing their portfolio. I wouldn’t mind it as a simple “mid-cap” ETF, but it doesn’t work as a dividend ETF for me. When I ran a regression on the returns for DON with the returns for the S&P 500 as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ), with a sample period going back to June 2006, the results were great for returns but bad for risk. DON returned a very impressive 119% in that period while SPY returned 101%. Clearly that strong performance is great, but the max drawdown was almost 62% compared to 55% for SPY and the annualized volatility for DON was higher. Simply put, I believe the excess returns here are strongly correlated to the excess risk. There is nothing wrong with a higher risk portfolio, but it doesn’t match the typical expectation of an investor hoping to drop their cash in and get a fairly safe and growing stream of dividend income. Conclusion This is a fine mid-cap ETF but it doesn’t make sense as a dividend ETF. The yield, the sector allocations, and the risk level demonstrated over the last 9 years or so are indicative of a more typical mid-cap ETF that is appropriate for aggressive investors with very bullish expectations about the future path of the economy. This is the kind of allocation I would be interested in buying when the market had crashed and already lost 40% of the total market value. If shares get that depressed, then this allocation would be much more acceptable for trying to catch the ride back up in equity prices. In my opinion, our market would have to fall quite a ways before I would want to start grabbing up those highly aggressive allocations. I can’t argue with the past returns, but the risk just doesn’t match up with my desires.