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Salesforce.com Leads Software Stocks’ Harmony Up; Even Tableau Hums

The morning bell became music to the ears of software stock investors Thursday as Wall Street used Salesforce.com’s Q4 strength and outlook to harmonize. Salesforce.com ( CRM ), an enterprise cloud pioneer and the No. 1 maker of customer relationship management software, sang soprano, its stock gapping up 11% as soon as the conductor raised the baton on the morning after its upbeat earnings report late Wednesday. Rival SAP ( SAP ) was up 1.6% in early trade in the stock market today . Fellow enterprise software stocks Ultimate Software ( ULTI ) rose 2%, ServiceNow ( NOW ) 2.8% and Manhattan Associates ( MANH ) nearly 1%. The harmony extended to database choir: Legacy leader Oracle ( ORCL ) rose a fraction, Qlik ( QLIK ) 2.7%, Splunk ( SPLK ) 3.9% and Hortonworks ( HDP ) 1.8%. Workday ( WDAY ) leapt 5% despite a lowered price target from Wedbush. Even Tableau Software ( DATA ) was up as much as 3.5% early Thursday. Tableau stock collapsed 49.5% on Feb. 5 after the company issued soft Q4 results and an outlook of slower growth, sending the entire enterprise software sector into a tailspin. “Slowdown? What Slowdown?” asked FBN analyst Shebly Seyrafi in a Thursday research note, citing “600 seven-figure deals” signed by Salesforce.com during Q4. Salesforce set off a sectorwide rebound, but will it last? By midday, Salesforce had eased to an 8% gain, near 67.50. Most of the other stock also had eased, but remained up. Hortonworks, though, was down more than 1% and Manhattan and Splunk were down a fraction. Canaccord Genuity maintained its buy rating, but without explanation lowered its price target on Salesforce stock to 88 from 95 while praising the company. FBR, too, reportedly lowered its price target, to 82 from 88, but maintained its outperform rating. “We have pushed back against the pessimism that has permeated investors’ imaginations for the past 50 days,” wrote Canaccord analyst Richard Davis in a research note issued Thursday morning. “Salesforce decisively demonstrated that the world is far from ending, and for well-run, well-positioned companies with talented salespeople, growth is still coming in large chunks. “There was literally nothing wrong with this quarter’s print or longer-term outlook. We believe the stock’s 9% after-hours (Wednesday) pop is just the beginning of a year in which the stock delivers price appreciation that is materially better than the overall stock market.” For its fiscal Q4 ended Jan. 31, Salesforce said adjusted EPS rose 36% to 19, matching analyst consensus, on revenue up 25% to $1.81 billion vs. Wall Street’s $1.79 billion model. For fiscal Q1 2017, Salesforce expects adjusted EPS of 23-24 cents, up 47% at the midpoint and ahead of analysts’ 21-cent estimates, on sales up 25% to $1.89 billion, whereas analysts expected $1.86 billion. Brian Wieser, an analyst with Pivotal Research, noted that deferred revenue growth was up 29% in Q4, foreshadowing sales to come. “By segment, Marketing Cloud was up by 31%,” he wrote in a Thursday research note. “App Cloud and other (formerly the Platform segment) was up by 43%, Services Cloud was up by 35% and the flagship Sales Cloud was up by +12%. “Commentary about activity in the most recent quarter included reference to the company’s signing of a new nine-figure transaction as well as a renewal of another large customer, also with a nine-figure sum.” Image provided by Shutterstock .

Will Salesforce.com Help End Enterprise Software’s ‘Beatdown’?

More than most, Salesforce.com’s fourth-quarter earnings — scheduled for release after the market close Wednesday — could help bring an end to what one analyst calls “the beatdown that growth software stocks endured for about 45 days.” “We believe that last week probably marked a bottom, or close to a bottom” for software companies that “are down about 25% for the average stock,” wrote Canaccord Genuity analyst Richard Davis in a research note Sunday. “Deals are getting a bit more scrutiny than before, but we believe we are nowhere near anything that looks like an IT spending clampdown. We are broadly optimistic on the outlook for next-generation software companies.” Salesforce ( CRM ) stock hit a 16-month low at 52.60 on Feb. 8, then rose 22% through Monday’s close at 63.98. Salesforce stock was down a fraction, near 63.50, in afternoon trading in the stock market today . That’s 23% off the stock’s all-time high of 82.90, hit Nov. 19, after Salesforce reported fiscal-third-quarter earnings up 50%. Salesforce is a cloud software pioneer and the No. 1 maker of customer relationship management software. Salesforce is coming off many years of double-digit revenue growth and seven consecutive quarters of double- or triple-digit earnings-per-share gains, year over year. Its market cap at $42 billion makes it half the size of SAP ( SAP ), the largest in IBD’s Computer Software-Enterprise industry group, and much smaller than business software giant Oracle ( ORCL ), with its $154.7 billion market cap. But Salesforce is much larger than next-generation cloud software companies  Workday ( WDAY ), ServiceNow ( NOW ), Ultimate Software ( ULTI ) and others. Salesforce’s fiscal Q4 2016, which ended in January, should make it eight consecutive quarters of double-digit-or-better earnings growth. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Salesforce to report earnings up 36% to 19 cents per share minus items, on revenue up 24% to $1.79 billion. Salesforce had guided Q4 to adjusted EPS of 18 to 19 cents on sales up 24% at the midpoint. Earnings especially were a tough comparison to follow, as EPS had doubled to 14 cents in fiscal Q4 of 2015. For the current Q1 2017 ending in April, Wall Street models EPS up 31% to 21 cents ex items, on revenue up 23% to $1.861 billion. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff said at the Q3 analyst conference: “We expect to deliver our first $8 billion year during our fiscal year 2017, which puts us well on the path to reach $10 billion faster than any other enterprise software company.” The company’s Salesforce1 platform for mobile-application development should spark growth, RBC Capital Markets analyst Ross MacMillan said in a research note Sunday, although “there are many avenues to sustain growth, including service and marketing, the platform, and international and future initiatives. “While deceleration is inevitable, we think Salesforce can continue to drive premium growth for its size, and it remains an important strategic asset.” RBC maintains an outperform rating on Salesforce.com stock, with an 80 price target, as “one of the best positioned companies in large-cap software.”

Amazon Customers Confirm: Cloud Transition Still Biggest Trend

After tracking down top tech execs of 10 Amazon Web Services customers and nine AWS “premier consulting partners” for interviews, Deutsche Bank analysts came away convinced that the migration to the cloud is still “the biggest and most disruptive trend in the enterprise IT market today.” Aside from “assessing macroeconomic risks to 2016 IT budgets (as) the topic du jour,” many tech execs are slowing their IT spending as they prepare to move their enterprises to the cloud, said Deutsche Bank analyst Karl Keirstead in a research note Tuesday. Keirstead questioned whether the macro headwinds that many blame for the current softness in tech spending are really at fault. “Even Tableau Software ( DATA ) cited this phenomenon,” he wrote. Tableau stock notoriously gapped down 49.5% Feb. 5, spooking investors and dragging many software stocks with it, after offering 2016 guidance that missed Wall Street expectations. Tableau stock, down a fraction, near 40, in afternoon trading in the stock market today , is more than 50% off its Feb. 4 close and 70% below its all-time high above 131 set last July. Amazon ( AMZN ) stock was up 2.5% in afternoon trading Tuesday, near 520 and 25% off its all-time high of 696.44 set in December. The runway is still enormous for cloud migration. Amazon’s AWS, Microsoft’s ( MSFT ) Azure and Alphabet’s ( GOOGL ) Google Cloud Platform combined have grown revenue to about $10 billion annually, a “tiny penetration” of the $500 billion to $1 trillion spent annually on tech services and products, Keirstead said. “The trend to AWS is clear … as more and more large enterprises are shuttering private data centers in a quest to become ‘data center independent’ and younger and smaller customers are piggy-backing on AWS as a faster and cheaper way to scale up in new geographies,” he wrote. Neutral Toward Oracle, Security Vendors The big legacy IT infrastructure vendors are feeling the brunt of the migration, he said. Those interviewed were “cautious” toward managed hosting and colocation data center vendors, neutral toward enterprise software developer Oracle ( ORCL ) and neutral (not negative)  toward security vendors because “most” customers won’t rely only on AWS security, Keirstead says. “It was a mixed  bag for Red Hat ( RHT ), as several of the ‘all-in’ customers seemed content to move to Amazon’s own Linux distribution,” he wrote. He said feedback was “bullish” on software-as-a-service companies  Salesforce.com ( CRM ) and Workday ( WDAY ). “We now wonder if AWS is creating a tailwind for the SaaS (Software as a Service) vendors … and if the IT services vendors could get a lift as enterprises look to move or re-platform workloads to make them more cloud-friendly,” Keirstead mused. Deutsche Bank maintains buy ratings on Microsoft, Salesforce and Amazon.  Salesforce is expected after the close Feb. 24 to report earnings up 36% for the January quarter. Salesforce stock was down a fraction Tuesday afternoon, near 59 and 29% off a Nov. 19 all-time high at 82.90. Rival Workday stock was up 2.5% Tuesday afternoon, near 50.50, still 48% off nearly two-year high set in October 2014. It’s scheduled Feb. 29 to report an adjusted loss of 4 cents per share for its fiscal Q4 ended in January, vs. 6 cents lost in Q4 a year earlier. Keirstead said he doesn’t doubt that macro pressure is “keeping a lid on infrastructure IT spending,” but big legacy players Cisco Systems ( CSCO ), IBM ( IBM ) and EMC ( EMC ) “have cited a ‘tough macro’ seemingly every quarter for 12-plus months, he says. “It is entirely plausible that the ongoing weakness in technology capex, private data center build-outs and hardware refresh activity is also due to ongoing structural shifts as large enterprises rethink their IT infrastructures to prepare for a transition to the public cloud model.”