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Increase Your Portfolio’s Return By Dropping International Funds

Summary International stocks have underperformed historically – performing even worse in the recent past. Multiple hypothetical portfolios demonstrate the poor returns of international stocks. Short periods of outperformance by international stocks do not make up for their overall performance. Will International Stocks Really Outperform? With emerging markets in the dumps and international funds trailing the returns of domestic funds, analysts everywhere are calling for investment in international stocks, claiming that the chronic underperformance is a sign that they are “due” to outperform. International stocks may very well outperform in the next few years. There is nobody who can know that for sure. I am here to present the facts, and the facts show that international stocks have not been delivering on the promise of outperformance given their higher risk. An investment portfolio built entirely from U.S. stocks can outperform international portfolios while avoiding the political and currency risks of other smaller countries. Hypothetical Portfolios For the sake of this hypothetical situation, let us assume that the owner of this portfolio will be investing in 100% equities and plans to maintain that portfolio for the next decade before moving into some safer bonds. The owner of this portfolio currently has $300,000 invested. Let us see how this portfolio would have performed from 2005 to 2015. First, a control sample: 100% U.S. equities for the entire investment period, invested in the broadest manner possible with the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA: VTI ). In this case, the portfolio would be worth $654,240 at the end of the investment period. Not too shabby, the portfolio has more than doubled with an annualized rate of 8.12% ( Source ). Let’s say the investor wished to broadly diversify his equity portfolio with companies from around the world, putting the U.S. weighting at around 40% with the Vanguard Global Equity Fund (MUTF: VHGEX ). In this case, the portfolio would be worth $533,880 at the end of the investment period. The portfolio has increased at an annualized rate of 5.93%. The investor has missed out on $120,360 ( Source ). Perhaps the investor believed that emerging markets would be a good addition to his U.S. equities. Let’s say the investor allocated 20% to emerging markets with the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: VWO ) and 80% to Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF. In this case, the portfolio would be worth $625,080 at the end of the investment period. The portfolio has increased at an annualized rate of just over 7.542%. The investor has missed out on $29,160 ( Source ). Let me note that emerging markets are the only international option I would consider. Emerging markets have outperformed U.S. markets from time to time and their current weakness has much to do with the strong U.S. dollar and oil prices. However, emerging markets do not represent all international stocks and therefore I still stand by the statement that international stocks, as a whole, underperform – as seen by the performance of broad international funds such as VHGEX. In all hypothetical portfolios, the investor would have been better off simply investing in the United States market and would have even paid lower fees (and perhaps taxes as well) while doing so. The below table and graph illustrate the results of including international stocks in your portfolio. (click to enlarge) (Excel, using data from Vanguard.com) (click to enlarge) (Excel, using data from Vanguard.com) International Stocks have Underperformed Historically U.S. funds have beaten international funds the past five, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years. Over the past 25 years, large-cap U.S. funds have gained an average 691%, vs. 338% for international funds. The graph below illustrates the difference in performance. (Please note I am not in favor of investments in managed futures. Managed future data is subject to extreme survivorship bias and the results are thus skewed. Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that “survived.” inadvertently overlooking those that did not because of their lack of visibility.) (click to enlarge) (AutumnGold) Small Bursts of Outperformance by International Stocks Don’t Make Them a Good Investment Some will argue that there are periods of time when international stocks outperform. This is true. However, these periods of time are often small and they haven’t made up for the underperformance both historically and lately, assuming investors invest gradually over time. For long term investors, a long history of strong performance is needed before an investment can be made. The United States stock market has provided that performance for over a century now. The below chart shows the periods of outperformance for domestic and international equities for roughly the past 20 years. As you can see, in the mid-80s international stocks did very well and mildly outperformed in the mid-2000s. However, in all other years the U.S. stock market outperformed and overall U.S. stocks came out far ahead as mentioned earlier, assuming you didn’t throw all your money into international stocks in 1984. However, most people invest over time and if you had done that, you would have had higher returns with domestic stocks. (Bason Asset Management) For the past 15 years domestic stocks have pulled ahead of international stocks by a fairly wide margin. This is achieved even when the domestic market returns are relatively normal compared to historical averages. International stocks have simply underperformed consistently. You would be very hard pressed to find an international broad market fund that has beaten a U.S. broad fund from inception to date with reasonable fees, assuming the inception dates are relatively similar and that the funds didn’t start around 1984. The Vanguard International Explorer Fund is one exception I have found as it has performed very well since inception in 1996. Unfortunately, over the past 10 years it has returned less than 6% annually. Having a Portfolio of Pure U.S. Stocks Outperforms and Provides International Exposure Investing in U.S. stocks doesn’t mean you lose out on foreign growth potential. In fact, U.S. companies are very savvy and have the luxury of being able to choose which countries to do business in. There is no reason the U.S. equity market can’t benefit from the growth of other nations. Companies in the S&P 500 get 46.2% of their earnings from overseas . If you are looking for diversification to reduce the risk of a drastic drop in your portfolio value, international stocks won’t help you. The 2008 stock market crash showed that all equities fell drastically at the same time. Investing in one country or another made no difference. So do the smart thing: invest in domestic funds and enjoy the decent returns, as boring as they may be.

ETFs To Watch As Emerging Market Asset Outflow Doubles

Emerging markets have been out of investors’ favor over the past several months piling up heavy losses. Domestic strength in the U.S. raising the possibility of a Fed rate hike, lower commodity prices and economic turmoil in China have resulted in a massive sell-off in emerging market stocks in the past few months. The last week was disastrous for the emerging market ETFs as outflows from these funds more than doubled over the previous week, according to data put together by Bloomberg . Outflows from emerging-market ETFs were $566.1 million last week compared with $262.1 million in the previous week. About 85% of the outflow comprised stock funds and the remaining bond funds. According to Bloomberg, Taiwan witnessed the biggest outflow, all from stock funds. Withdrawal from Taiwan funds reached $93.3 million last week, compared with redemptions of $19.9 million in the previous week. Brazil experienced the second biggest outflow, with more than 90% from stock funds. Investors pulled back $68.7 million from this country ETFs last week in sharp contrast to an inflow of $12.8 million in the previous week. Below, we highlight three popular emerging market ETFs that have experienced significant net asset outflow in the week ended October 2. iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets (NYSEARCA: IEMG ) – $530.9 Million This ETF tracks the MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index, designed to measure large-, mid- and small-cap equity market performance in 21 emerging market countries. The fund has the highest exposure to China (22.2%), followed by South Korea (15.8%) and Taiwan (13%). It has amassed roughly $7 billion in its asset base while it trades in a volume of roughly 3 million shares a day. It charges 18 bps in fees from investors per year and currently has a Zacks ETF Rank #3 (Hold) with a Medium risk outlook. Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: VWO ) – $318.8 Million This is the top asset grossing emerging market ETF, which follows the market-cap weighted FTSE Emerging Index that measures the performance of roughly 850 large and mid-cap companies in 22 emerging markets. This fund is also highly focused on China (26.6%), followed by Taiwan (14.1%) and India (12.7%). VWO has garnered nearly $35 billion in assets and trades in a heavy volume of roughly 16 million shares per day. It charges 15 bps in annual fees and carries a Zacks Rank #3 with a Medium risk outlook. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Mini Vol (NYSEARCA: EEMV ) – $139.5 Million This ETF tracks the MSCI Emerging Markets Minimum Volatility Index, measuring the performance of large- and mid-cap securities in 21 emerging markets that have lower absolute volatility. EEMV is heavily biased toward China (18.7%) as well, while Taiwan and South Korea occupy the next two spots with shares of 17% and 12.3%, respectively. The fund has gathered around $2.5 billion in assets and trades in an average volume of 500,000 shares. It charges 25 bps in fees per year and carries a Zacks Rank #3 with a Medium risk outlook. Original Post

Q3 ETF Asset Flow Roundup

The third-quarter of 2015 was teeming with economic shockers that bulldozed risky investments worldwide but showered gains on some safe bids. While a hard landing fear in China was the actual culprit, a long-standing guesswork on the Fed’s liftoff timeline was a partner in crime. Yet, we admit that nothing could stand against the China issues that include sudden currency devaluation, multi-year low manufacturing data and a massive crash in the Chinese market. The resultant shockwaves, swooning commodities and the return of deflationary fears in the Euro zone also set the dark stage for the third quarter’s investing activity. The combined impact of these events led the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) , to lose about 7.7%, the PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ ) to shed 5.7% and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA: DIA ) to retreat about 8.4% in Q3. The iShares MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) Index ETF (NASDAQ: ACWI ) was off about 9.8% in the quarter. Overall, the global market was quite disastrous for investors as most key indices endured the worst quarter in four years. In such a scenario, investors might thus want to check out the top and worst grossing ETFs of Q3 to see which products cashed in on the market crash and which lost out. Winners of Q3 The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF Though volatility rocked the show in the third quarter as China-led global growth fears and its ripples in the other emerging and developed economies muddled the market momentum, steady U.S. growth impressed investors. Also, the Fed’s reiteration of near zero interest rates at the end of the quarter resulted in strong inflows into the U.S. equity funds. The ultra-popular SPY led the way last month, gathering over $8.4 billion in capital. Not only SPY, another popular S&P 500 ETFs namely Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: VOO ) accumulated $4.45 billion in assets. U.S. Treasury Bonds – iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: SHY ) With the Fed still hesitating to hike the benchmark interest rates even almost after a decade, bond investing prevailed in Q3. Though September was a chancy month for the lift-off, a global market rout in August, a choppy global market and a still-low inflation level in the U.S. held the Fed back from catapulting a lift-off. This gave a big-time boost to the short-term U.S. Treasury bond ETFs. As a result, SHY garnered about $4.05 billion in assets in Q3. The SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (NYSEARCA: BIL ) also piled up $1.66 billion in assets and made it to the top-10 asset scorers’ list (read: Guide to Interest Rate Hikes and ETFs: 4 Ways to Play ). Since the global macroeconomic environment was tumultuous in Q3, investors sought refuse in safe haven bids like intermediate-to-long term treasury ETFs. These offer investors safety along with a decent level of current income. Thanks to this sentiment, the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: IEF ) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TLT ) attracted about $2.40 billion and $1.65 billion of AUM during the quarter (read: ETF Winners & Losers Post Dovish Fed Meet ). Hedged Global – Deutsche X-trackers MSCI EAFE Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DBEF ) The global economy may be lagging, but investors’ penchant for currency-hedged global equity ETF investing is not. The policy divergence stemmed from the looming Fed tightening and the easy money policies in most developed economies made hedged international investments a compelling opportunity for U.S. investors and led them to pour about $2.38 billion in assets in DBEF. Several other Europe-based ETFs including the iShares MSCI EMU ETF (NYSEARCA: EZU ) and the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSEARCA: VGK ) hauled in respectively $1.7 billion and $1.6 billion assets in Q3. Top Losers Emerging Market – Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: VWO ) Emerging markets were hard hit in Q3 thanks to the double whammy of China-induced worries and the Fed rate hike tensions. This clearly explains why two top-notch emerging market ETFs namely VWO and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: EEM ) saw assets bleeding in the quarter. The funds, VWO and EEM saw outflows of about $3.44 billion and $2.79 billion respectively in the quarter. Un-hedged Global – iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (NYSEARCA: EFA ) Since sooner or later the Fed is due for a policy tightening, investors started to dump non currency-hedged international ETFs like EFA. The fund shed about $1.13 billion in assets in the quarter. Gold – SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD ) Gold has slipped to multi-year lows on a stronger dollar, a still-muted inflationary backdrop worldwide and the slowdown in China, which is one of the largest consumers of gold. Though the recent global market rout offered gold the much-needed respite for a brief session on the metal’s safe haven appeal, the underlying fundamentals are weak. So, investors abandoned this product in Q3, resulting in about $922 million in net outflows. Link to the original post on Zacks.com