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Tesla Stock Lifts As Model 3 Lines Stretch: How Many Reservations?

Would-be buyers lined up at Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) stores around the world Thursday to grab the first reservations, a $1,000 proposition, for the electric Model 3 that will be unveiled Thursday night. And Tesla stock climbed 3.5% by early afternoon in the stock market today , near 235. Dozens of people lined up, and some camped out, at stores in Australia, where some of the first reservations were taken, according to reports. Tesla posted to Twitter clips of others waiting in Los Angeles and Bellevue, Wash. At $1,000, Model 3 reservations set a far lower bar than the $5,000 reservations that were required for the Model S sedan and Model X crossover. Are Tesla Model 3 deposits refundable? Tesla says yes. Analysts predict that reservations will amount to billions of dollars in short order, but they’re divided on just how quickly reservations could reach 100,000. The Model 3 is a crucial car for Tesla, which is expected to try to boost its annual sales pace by about 10 times to 500,000 vehicles by 2020. At $35,000 — half the price of the Model S and the Model X —  the Model 3 is seen competing with the BMW 3 Series and other gas-powered, entry-level luxury cars from the  Volkswagen ( VLKAY ) Audi brand and the Mercedes-Benz brand from  Daimler ( DDAIF ). It will also be competing against next-generation electric cars and hybrid cars from conventional automakers such as General Motors ( GM ) with its Chevrolet Bolt EV, and maybe eventually with a rumored Apple ( AAPL ) car, though the exact nature of Apple’s auto-related Project Titan  hasn’t been specified. Tesla Model 3 Reservations: Analyst Forecasts How many Model 3 reservations will Tesla get? Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry is a bull, predicting in a research note Wednesday that the “Tesla Model 3 will break all the records in Consumer Tech in dollar terms for pre-order bookings.” He says it is widely believed that bookings could reach 100,000 by the end of the weekend, amounting to “$3.5 billion worth of pre-orders.” Stifel analyst James Albertine has predicted a slower ramp-up. Wooooow! RT @BharathNA Not a small line in Bellevue. And it's only 7.30am #tesla #Model3 pic.twitter.com/2UiuwRRzQb — Tesla Motors (@TeslaMotors) March 31, 2016 “Though this is just a guess, we anticipate reservation figures in the days following the launch (if disclosed) would be in the range of 15,000-20,000,” he said in a research note in early March. He sees 50,000 to 100,000 worldwide Model 3 reservations in six to eight months after Thursday’s launch. He notes that at just $1,000 each, “some attrition is expected” after people make reservations. Can Tesla Shift From Luxury Electric Niche To Mass-Market Model 3? https://t.co/lOUKNj6gDt pic.twitter.com/pTF7vjQMGx — Investors.com (@IBDinvestors) March 29, 2016 Tesla is not highly rated by IBD at moment, with a Composite Rating of just 28 out of a possible 99, factoring in earnings growth, stock performance and a variety of other measures. Tesla stock has risen about 66% from a February low but is just back around where it began the year. RELATED: Tesla Motors’ $30 Billion Question: Can Model 3 Outdo Big Car Brands? .

Taking Stock Of Tesla Motors, With Model 3 Launch A Week Away

The long-awaited Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) Model 3, hailed as an electric car for the masses, is due for its unveiling next Thursday, March 31. The company sent out invitations Thursday to prospective buyers to watch the livestream event at 8:30 p.m. Pacific Time at Tesla.com. Tesla said it will start taking reservations on the website at that time. But it said “a better spot in the queue” would come from just visiting a Tesla store when it opens on March 31, elaborating on a Tesla blog post earlier this week. Priced at $35,000 before incentives — half the cost of Tesla’s Model S and Model X — the Model 3 is meant to go up against the likes of the BMW 3 Series and other gas-powered entry-level luxury vehicles from Volkswagen ‘s ( VLKAY ) Audi and Daimler ‘s ( DDAIF ) Mercedes-Benz. It will also compete with hybrids from many makers, as well as General Motors ‘ ( GM ) planned Chevrolet Bolt EV, which is expected to get more than a 200-mile range between recharges and sell for $30,000 before incentives. The Model 3 will share the same design language with the Model X, including a “relatively larger windshield,” similar to what an  Apple ( AAPL ) Car “is also very likely to have,” said Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry in a research note last week. Apple hasn’t confirmed it’s working on any car, though it has hired several auto industry executives to work on a closely guarded project. How Does Tesla Motors Stock Look? Hopes for Tesla’s ability to build and sell a sizable number of Model 3s have helped push up Tesla’s market capitalization to five times the California startup’s annual revenue. How well the Model 3 does — along with whether Tesla can build it on time (starting in late 2017) and get battery costs low enough to make the car profitable — are key issues that investors will be watching. Tesla stock gets a low IBD Composite Rating of 27 out of a possible 99. The CR factors in a raft of metrics such as earnings growth, company and industry stock performance, and the degree of institutional buying. Fiat Chrysler Automobile ( FCAU ) is highest-rated in IBD’s Auto Manufacturers industry group, with a 55 CR, followed by Ford ( F ) at 51. The group itself is near the bottom in performance, ranking 182 out of 197 groups that IBD tracks. Tesla shares lifted more than 2% in afternoon trading on the stock market today , near 228. While the S&P 500 index has declined 1% so far this year, Tesla stock is down 6% after gaining 8% in 2015, jumping 48% in 2014, and rocketing 344% in 2013. What Are Analysts Saying About Tesla? Analysts on the whole are mildly positive on Tesla. Of 21 tracked by Thomson Reuters, five call it a strong buy, four a buy, and six rate it at hold or underperform. Analyst Chowdhry said in a research note that the silhouette of the Model 3 in Tesla’s event invitation “does not reveal much. … However, based on monitoring TSLA since 2009, Model 3 will be anything but ordinary … and as TSLA has done in the past, Model 3 will very likely push the auto industry back to the design board.” On Wednesday, S&P Global Market Intelligence analyst Efraim Levy cut his opinion “on these volatile shares to sell,” with Tesla now trading well above his 155 price target. “The shares have rallied sharply recently in anticipation of the Model 3 reveal later this month and amid bullish comments from some equity analysts. While we expect sales and EPS to surge in ’16, we see significant execution and valuation risk in the premium priced stock,” he wrote. Short-seller Citron Research, which expects supply and demand problems as Tesla tries to scale up production, recently targeted Tesla stock. The timing of the Model 3 concerns Karl Brauer, senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book, “because it’s at least a year after the Chevrolet Bolt arrives, and additional pure electrics with a similar range could easily show up by late 2017. These competitors will have full sales and service support in every state and major market, putting the pressure on Model 3 to keep up in this rapidly expanding market.” Several analysts have called Tesla years ahead of auto industry competition in electric vehicle design, giving it a continuing edge.

Self-Driving Cars: China’s Come To U.S.; Automakers Adopt Braking

Self-driving cars are inching forward with developments this week — 20 automakers say they’ll add automatic emergency braking by 2022, and China’s Baidu ( BIDU ) will reportedly soon start testing its autonomous cars in the U.S. As about the whole car industry gets into the game, the quest to create a self-driving vehicle puts Chinese Internet search leader Baidu in a tech-development drag race with global search leader Google. The unit of parent firm Alphabet ( GOOGL ) has been developing self-driving vehicles for years. Baidu aims to become a cutting-edge automaker and have its automated vehicles in distribution in 2018, says a report Thursday in the Wall Street Journal. The latest  move by Baidu  comes as U.S. auto safety regulators say that 20 automakers have pledged to make automatic emergency braking a standard feature on nearly all U.S. vehicles by 2022, a move that could prevent thousands of rear-end accidents each year – and ensure that the companies aren’t left in the dust as car technology advances. The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) hailed the voluntary commitment by 20 automakers representing more than 99% of U.S. vehicle sales. Companies including General Motors ( GM ), Ford ( F ), Toyota ( TM ), Volkswagen ( VLKAY ), Daimler ( DDAIF ), Nissan Motor ( NSANY ) and Honda Motor ( HMC ) have signed on. While Apple ( AAPL ) has been widely reported to be among those in the self-driving car game, the company hasn’t confirmed any involvement. Baidu stock rose 0.2% to 183.44  in the stock market today . Apple stock fell 0.2% to 105.80. Mobileye ( MBLY ) stock appeared to benefit after news of the emergency braking standard emerged on Wednesday, soaring 9.5%. Mobileye, a maker of autonomous car technology, saw its stock rise 1.4% Thursday. Since its IPO last August, Mobileye stock has jumped 48% from its IPO price of 25. Mobileye has said millions of vehicles include its system as it works with BMW and automakers such as Tesla Motors ( TSLA ), GM and Honda. Along with Mobileye, NXP Semiconductors ( ), Nvidia ( NVDA ), Ambarella ( AMBA ) and others are partnering with automakers to develop chips and other technology needed for self-driving cars. German automaker BMW said in September 2014 that it had teamed up with Baidu to create self-driving cars. At that time, BMW said its project with Baidu was designed to achieve “accident-free mobility” while enhancing comfort and efficiency for drivers in China, the world’s top car-producing nation. Baidu already provides Internet cloud services to BMW as well as mapping services through Baidu Maps, BMW said then. On Tuesday, the chief of self-driving car development at Google told a U.S. Senate panel that “Congress has a huge opportunity to help ensure that self-driving cars can be safely deployed at scale,” as the Alphabet subsidiary and others attempt to fast-track development of the technology. Chris Urmson, director of the self-driving car program at Google X, was among those who testified at the hearing that was convened by U.S. Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., chairman of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation. The hearing came a month after one of Google’s self-driving cars hit a municipal bus in California. Google has said new software changes will avoid future incidents. In a report last year, Boston Consulting Group cautioned that self-driving cars won’t likely appear widely on roads until 2025, but the technology could emerge sooner in automated ride-sharing services in city centers. This week’s U.S. government hearing included testimony from GM and ride-sharing company Lyft, which are in a partnership to develop self-driving cars. Driverless trucks and cars will be tested soon in the U.K., according to a BBC report on Thursday.