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Tesla Model 3 Reservations Count Ahead; Stock Hits 7-Month High

Loading the player…   Rising nearly 4% Wednesday, Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) stock has reached its highest since September, ahead of a first-week Model 3 reservations update that was expected from CEO Elon Musk later in the day, but put off till early Thursday. @FreshDialogues will have the full week's number early tomorrow morning — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 7, 2016 Musk said on Twitter Wednesday night “will have the full week’s number early tomorrow morning.” He’d said over the weekend that the $1,000 refundable preorder deposits for the $35,000 car reached 276,000 Saturday — far above analysts’ expectations and Tesla’s own. Will give an update tonight for the 3 day total, then last one on Wed for the full week. All efforts focused on accelerating the ramp. — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 2, 2016 Tesla Motors Stock Analysis Tesla stock lifted 3.9% in the stock market  Wednesday, closing at 265.42. Shares also rose more than 3% in each of the prior three trading days that followed Thursday’s unveiling of the electric Model 3, a mass-market vehicle expected to compete with gas-powered cars like BMW’s 3 Series and similarly priced ones from Volkswagen ’s ( VLKAY ) Audi, Daimler ’s ( DDAIF ) Mercedes-Benz and Toyota ’s ( TM ) Lexus, as well as electrics like General Motors ‘ ( GM ) Chevrolet Bolt. The stock is building the right side of a very long, deep base and is not in buy range.  But Tesla’s IBD Composite Rating has now risen to 72 out of a possible 99. The CR factors in its earnings and loss history, stock moves and more. Can Tesla Build Model 3 After Model X Miss? This week, Tesla missed its Q1 car unit sales expectations. So, can Tesla build all those Model 3s in light of its difficulty getting out just shy of 15,000 cars last quarter? The company said Monday that “severe Model X supplier parts shortages” of just a few parts were due partly to its own “hubris in adding far too much new technology to the Model X in version 1.” So many preorders of the $35,000 Model 3 so soon can create a big production backlog. The Model 3 is due out starting in late 2017. CEO Musk says he’s rethinking production planning. Tesla Analysts Forecast Production Pacific Crest Securities analyst Brad Erickson predicts Tesla “can deliver 370,000 vehicles” in 2020, Stifel’s James Albertine sees 200,000, and Tesla has predicted half a million. On how many Model 3 reservations will turn into sales, Erickson sees “huge optimism, but modest lack of conviction of actual purchase,” given that the deposits are fully refundable and only $1,000 each. Erickson is keeping his Tesla stock rating at sector weight. He says, “we need more comfort with the upside scenarios … before becoming more constructive on the stock.” Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are on average only mildly positive on Tesla stock, with a lot of future expectations already built into the price. Of 21 analysts polled, nine call Tesla a buy or strong buy, five a hold, and seven an underperform. Related : Tesla Stock Shrugs Off Parts Shortage; Model 3 Reservations Pass 276,000 This Is What It’s Like To Ride In A Tesla Model 3  

Tesla Stock Hits 7-Month High With Model 3 Demand, Model X Delays

Loading the player… Going into Wednesday trading, Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) stock sat at its highest since September, ahead of a first-week Model 3 reservations update expected from CEO Elon Musk later in the day. He said Saturday that the $1,000 refundable preorder deposits for the $35,000 car reached 276,000 — far above analysts’ expectations and Tesla’s own. Will give an update tonight for the 3 day total, then last one on Wed for the full week. All efforts focused on accelerating the ramp. — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 2, 2016 Tesla Motors Stock Analysis Tesla stock rose more than 3% in each of the three trading days following Thursday’s unveiling of the electric Model 3, a mass-market vehicle expected to compete with gas-powered cars like BMW’s 3 Series and similarly priced ones from Volkswagen ’s ( VLKAY ) Audi, Daimler ’s ( DDAIF ) Mercedes-Benz and Toyota ’s ( TM ) Lexus, as well as electrics like General Motors ‘ ( GM ) Chevrolet Bolt. The stock is building the right side of a very long, deep base. But Tesla currently only gets a 51 Composite Rating out of a possible 99 from IBD. The CR factors in its earnings and loss history, stock moves and more. Can Tesla Build Model 3 After Model X Miss? This week, Tesla missed its Q1 car unit sales expectations. So, can Tesla build all those Model 3s in light of its difficulty getting out just shy of 15,000 cars last quarter? The company said Monday that “severe Model X supplier parts shortages” of just a few parts were due partly to its own “hubris in adding far too much new technology to the Model X in version 1.” So many preorders of the $35,000 Model 3 so soon can create a big production backlog. The Model 3 is due out starting in late 2017. CEO Musk says he’s rethinking production planning. Tesla Analysts Forecast Production Pacific Crest Securities analyst Brad Erickson predicts Tesla “can deliver 370,000 vehicles” in 2020, Stifel’s James Albertine sees 200,000, and Tesla has predicted half a million. On how many Model 3 reservations will turn into sales, Erickson sees “huge optimism, but modest lack of conviction of actual purchase,” given that the deposits are fully refundable and only $1,000 each. Erickson is keeping his Tesla stock rating at sector weight. He says, “we need more comfort with the upside scenarios … before becoming more constructive on the stock.” Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are on average only mildly positive on Tesla stock, with a lot of future expectations already built into the price. Of 21 analysts polled, nine call Tesla a buy or strong buy, five a hold, and seven an underperform. Related : Tesla Stock Shrugs Off Parts Shortage; Model 3 Reservations Pass 276,000 This Is What It’s Like To Ride In A Tesla Model 3  

Tesla Stock Shrugs Off Parts Shortage; Model 3 Reservations Pass 276,000

Loading the player…   Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) stock opened down 2.6% Tuesday morning but erased the loss, with a 3% gain in early-afternoon trading, after the company late Monday gave a Q1 deliveries count and mentioned Model X parts shortages. That highlights Tesla’s  task ahead as the electric car maker tries to ramp up production dramatically to deliver its new Model 3 starting in late 2017. “Tesla Q1 deliveries consisted of 12,420 Model S vehicles and 2,400 Model X vehicles,” Tesla spokeswoman Alexis Georgeson  said in an emailed statement after the market close. “Q1 deliveries were almost 50% more than Q1 last year and Tesla remains on track to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 new vehicles in 2016.” ‘Tesla’s Hubris’ Blamed For Delays Tesla said the Q1 delivery count was impacted by “severe Model X supplier parts shortages in January and February that lasted much longer than initially expected.” Production rates improved once the issues were solved, the company said. “The root causes of the parts shortages were: Tesla’s hubris in adding far too much new technology to the Model X in version 1, insufficient supplier capability validation, and Tesla not having broad enough internal capability to manufacture the parts in-house,” Georgeson’s email said. “The parts in question were only half a dozen out of more than 8,000 unique parts, nonetheless missing even one part means a car cannot be delivered. Tesla is addressing all three root causes to ensure that these mistakes are not repeated with the Model 3 launch.” Model 3 Reservations Rack Up, With Challenge Ahead Tesla stock closed up 4% Monday at 246.99, compounding Friday’s gain as reservations for its new Model 3 electric car soared far beyond views. CEO Elon Musk tallied 276,000 reservations by the beginning of Sunday and said he’d give another update Wednesday. The pre-order period opened Thursday ahead of a Thursday-night reveal event. Musk said in Twitter posts that  he’s definitely going to have to rethink production planning. Tesla had expected only one quarter to one half of the 115,000 reservations that came in before anyone even got to see what the car looked like. The refundable reservations are $1,000 each and worth $11.6 billion dollars in revenue if everybody were to go through with a purchase. “While there was clearly a lot of excitement and optimism around both the car and the company, roughly one-third of the respondents we talked to sounded undecided on whether they would actually purchase when the option came up in two years,” Pacific Crest Securities analyst Brad Erickson said in a research note written Friday and distributed late Sunday. The focus now is on how all the numbers — and Tesla stock — will play out. The company has just effectively crowdfunded more than a quarter billion dollars from reservations. That’s more than it raised in its IPO. The 276,000 reservations worldwide also tops the number of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles sold around the U.S. in the last two years by the entire auto industry. And it’s more than the 245,000 BMW passenger cars sold in the U.S. last year. Tesla delivered almost 51,000 electric vehicles — its Model S sedan and Model X crossover — last year worldwide. Tesla Stock Analysis Going into Monday, Tesla stock was just below where it started 2016. It closed Friday at 237.59 after hitting its highest point since early October. The stock isn’t highly rated by IBD now, factoring in its history of losses and earnings, stock performance and other factors. The Model 3 is the electric car meant for the entry-level luxury mass market, priced at $35,000 for the base model before any tax credits. Musk expects the average purchase price with add-ons to be $42,000. The car is seen as a challenger to BMW’s 3 Series and similarly priced models from Daimler ’s ( DDAIF ) Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen ’s ( VLKAY ) Audi and Toyota ’s ( TM ) Lexus, as well as electrics like General Motors ’ ( GM ) Chevrolet Bolt EV. Among the many things analysts and investors will be deconstructing is how much content from Tesla’s tech partners Nvidia ( NVDA ) and Mobileye ( MBLY ) go into the Model 3. Nvidia chips power the entertainment console in Tesla’s current vehicles. Mobileye is a maker of camera-based advanced driver assistance systems, and its technology is used by Tesla in conjunction with Autopilot self-driving car features. Nvidia GPU Tech Conference: ‘Deep Learning In Auto’ Mobileye stock rose 3.2% Monday, while Nvidia was down fractionally. Nvidia  gets a top 99 Composite Rating from IBD and Mobileye a 70. Nvidia stock rose fractionally in early trade Tuesday, with its analyst day events slated to start soon and its GPU Technology Conference underway in Silicon Valley, while Mobileye was down about 1.5%. The Nvidia GTC16 liveblog going into a keynote talk by Nvidia co-founder and CEO Jen-Hsun Huang said “he’s going to talk about five things: A tool kit, VR, deep learning chip, deep learning box, deep learning in auto.” RELATED: Tesla Model 3 Reservations Hit 276,000 By Sunday This Is What It’s Like To Ride In A Tesla Model 3