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Nathan Buehler Positions For 2016: Attractive Opportunities In ETFs

You don’t have to trade every day to make above average returns in the market. Patience is the key to any good strategy. For typical ETFs that track broader indexes, watch the management fees when considering a fund. The Fed will continue to provide distractions throughout 2016 with constant assessment and analyses of when they will raise again and what that means for the economy. Welcome to the ETFs section of Seeking Alpha’s Positioning for 2016 series! This year we have once again asked experts on a range of different asset classes and investing strategies to offer their vision for the coming year and beyond. As always, the focus is on an overall approach to portfolio construction. Nathan Buehler has been an author on Seeking Alpha since May 2014, specializing in the coverage of ETFs and volatility investments. In addition to writing on Seeking Alpha, he works full time as a Teacher in the Lee County School District, volunteers as his communities HOA President, and participates in local government. Most of his strategy is geared towards long term outlook with focuses on short term events or situations that create attractive opportunities. Seeking Alpha’s Carolyn Pairitz recently spoke with Nathan to find out what he is expecting from ETFs in 2016. Carolyn Pairitz ((CP)): While you cover a number of ETF topics, the VIX has been your focus on Seeking Alpha. What drew you to study and invest in volatility? Nathan Buehler (NB): I started investing in penny stocks when I was a teenager. I had no idea what I was doing and lost most of the money I invested. I didn’t give up and was always looking for ways to get rich quick. Getting rich quick also led to additional losses. As I grew up and matured I began to realize there was an opportunity to make money off of people that were either looking to get rich quick or panicking. I started researching volatility as an asset class and began practicing with options strategies and trying to learn everything I could about how volatility behaves relative to the market. Eventually I fine-tuned my knowledge of the VIX to the point I felt comfortable trading it. I love investor psychology and I will often have different takes and points of view on the VIX than other seasoned investors. This again comes from the fact I am self-taught. I learn something new every day and use that to continuously improve upon my investment objectives. CP: Do you have any advice for readers considering ETFs for their portfolios in 2016? NB: For typical ETFs that track broader indexes, watch the management fees. There are a number of very low cost funds run by very reputable companies. For volatility ETFs my only advice is to fully educate yourself before trading these products. This is also true for many ETFs that track commodities and have very specific objectives. ETFs don’t always behave like a stock and can lead to serious losses if an investor is not properly prepared. CP: Going into 2015, which asset classes are you overweight? Which are you underweight? NB: In my general portfolio I have moved overweight in select oil companies. I believe this is a cyclical pattern and as long oil prices stay low, demand will keep increasing. Eventually economics will take over and the present fear factor will clear itself up. These are positions I plan on keeping for 5-10 years so even if oil takes another year to recover, I am fine with waiting. CP: The SEC recently proposed rules that could shake up the current structure of leveraged ETFs. Could you elaborate on this further and how it could affect the ETF market in 2016? NB: The ETF companies have been on top of this from the start and ProShares even contacted me directly in response to one of my articles that covered the topic. For right now it doesn’t appear that this rule will have a real effect on any of the 2x leverage ETFs. However, many if not all 3x leverage products could be forced to close. I am not a fan of 3x leverage products and I feel this is the right decision to protect investors from themselves. At some point it is wrong to let people purchase a product that could wipe out their entire net worth in one day. Gambling is still legal if someone wants to bet it all on black. CP: With the Fed having raised fund rates this December, are you updating you VIX strategy or do you feel this change was already priced into the market? NB: I felt that the rise in rates was long overdue and well expected by the market. I was hoping for a hold which would have created an excellent opportunity for a sharp increase in volatility. The Fed will continue to provide distractions throughout 2016 with constant assessment and analyses of when they will raise again and what that means for the economy. To me, the Fed is just a bunch of noise. They get people hopped up and will calm the markets down. They have been a good tool in respects to volatility. CP: Are there any global issues on the horizon that ETF investors should pay particular attention to? NB: Geopolitical events always provide good opportunities for volatility. Two years ago Russia was providing regular spikes in volatility. The world loves a villain. We make movies about them and the super heroes that save us. Russia and China used to be those villains in regards to the stock market. Investors loved to gawk over what Russia was doing, who they were invading, and how China’s economy was collapsing. Now we have ISIS. Friends and foes alike have come together to take on ISIS. As far as I am concerned, this is a negative for volatility, a positive for the market, and a win for humanity. CP: As a teacher and an author on Seeking Alpha, do you have any advice for readers who work a full time job but also want to be involved in the markets? NB: There have been multiple studies out on how teachers make the best investors. Each of these studies cited one fact consistently, lack of trading. You don’t have to trade every day to make above average returns in the market. I constantly get questions on timing the market, when to get in, when to get out, etc. Investors need to chill out. My goal is to make a 15% return during the calendar year. Not 15% in January and then try for 80% by December. Patience is the key to any good strategy and if you are glued to your monitor all day watching the ticks of the market it isn’t healthy. I would conclude that a full time job gives you proper time to analyze the markets in the evenings and make more rational decisions by the next trading day.

My ‘Preferred’ Preferred Closed-End Funds

Summary Closed-end funds provide a great way to invest in preferred securities. FFC and PDT have beaten the S&P 500 over the past 10 years. The Preferred CEFs outperformed the lower cost ETF iShares US Preferred Stock Fund. Traditional preferred stocks provide a fixed dividend payment and generally do not mature but can be called on or after a specified call date. Some preferred stocks can adjust to floating rates (LIBOR plus a given percentage). It is possible to invest in individual preferred stock or select a fund that invests in preferred stocks. I invest in both individual preferred stocks and closed-end funds that focus on preferred stocks. The CEF approach will be more volatile but can provide diversification and higher income due to the leverage. iShares US Preferred Stock Fund (NYSEARCA: PFF ) provides a lower cost ETF alternative but it has lagged behind its closed-end fund cousins in performance. Over the last 5 years, the S&P 500 has outperformed my preferred closed-end funds, but if you look at the past 10 years, the picture looks quite different. Assuming that the stock prices are a bit toppy, the next 5 years maybe favorable for collecting the nice income from preferred stocks without missing out on a super-hot stock market appreciation. Fund 5 yr Month End average annual return 10 yr Month End average annual return John Hancock Premium Dividend Fund (NYSE: PDT ) 11.86% 10.87% Flaherty and Crumrine Preferred Securities Income Fund (NYSE: FFC ) 13.56% 10.49% SPDR S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY ) 14.29% 7.40% iShares US Preferred Stock 6.49% n/a Below is the investment objective summary for the three preferred stock closed-end funds from Fidelity: John Hancock Premium Dividend Fund: The fund will invest in common stocks of issuers whose senior debt is rated investment grade or, in the case of issuers that have no rated senior debt is considered by the Adviser to be comparable quality. 80% of funds total assets consist of preferred stocks and debt obligations rated A or higher. Leverage ratio 34.1% Flaherty & Crumrine Preferred Securities Income Fund Inc: The fund invests normally at least 80% of its total assets in preferred securities that are mainly hybrid or taxable preferred securities. At least 80% of the preferred securities are investment grade quality. Up to 20% may be invested in securities rated below investment grade. It may also invest up to 20% of its assets in other debt securities and up to 15% in common stocks. Leverage ratio 34.65% First Trust Intermediate Duration Preferred and Income Fund (NYSE: FPF ): Under normal market conditions, the Fund will invest at least 80% of its Managed Assets in a portfolio of preferred and other income-producing securities issued by U.S. and non-U.S. companies, including traditional preferred securities, hybrid preferred securities that have investment and economic characteristics of both preferred securities and debt securities, floating rate and fixed-to-floating rate preferred securities, debt securities, convertible securities and contingent convertible securities. All three funds pay monthly distributions, have a positive NAV return, and a positive UNII Symbol 3 yr return on NAV 12 month return on NAV Distribution (Market) Discount Discount 52 wk average UNII Expense Ratio adjusted PDT 9.81% 3.42% 8.31% -9.95% -10.28% $0.0046 1.44% FFC 8.26% 3.13% 8.06% 8.35% 2.04% $0.0208 0.88% FPF n/a 6.00% 9.19% -9.32% -8.08% $0.1029 1.33% Year to Date, FPF’s NAV performance was quite a bit better than the S&P 500: Symbol YTD Price perf NAV perf PDT 5.25 2.86 FFC 14.21 3.95 FPF 2.41 6.21 SPY 3.02 2.95 Obviously, for long term investors a single year is not that meaningful. The table below shows the 5 yr and 10 yr returns of PDT and FFC compared to the S&P 500 index fund and the ETF preferred PFF. FPF does not have that much historic data available yet. Fund 5 yr Month End average annual return 10 yr Month End average annual return John Hancock Premium Dividend Fund 11.86% 10.87% Flaherty and Crumrine Preferred Securities Income Fund 13.56% 10.49% SPDR S&P 500 14.29% 7.40% iShares US Preferred Stock ( PFF ) 6.49% n/a Risks With Preferred Stock investments: Any investment carries risk and preferred stocks are interest rate sensitive. Preferred stocks are not appropriate if you believe that the rate increases by the Federal Reserve will continue or accelerate. Conclusion: The three preferred closed-end funds shown in this article may be a good addition to a diversified portfolio under the assumption that the interest rates will not rise drastically. They will not outperform the stock market in a bull market scenario but if the market drops or stays range-bound, the consistent income from the closed-end funds can then be channeled into other stock purchases or dividend reinvestments. FPF’s current discount is attractive. When looking at the 3 yr average discount, I would want to buy PDT at or below 13.44 and FFC at or below 18.97. FFC definitely has the best expense ratio of the three.

PPL Corporation – Ready To Go Strong Starting 2016

Summary Stock is compelling investment prospect for income-hunting investors. Strategic investments in utility infrastructure development and extension-related projects are in-line with long-term growth generating strategy. Strategy of sharing cash flow base strength with shareholders through dividend payments will continue to positively affect stock price. PPL Corporation (NYSE: PPL )’s strong business fundamentals and its important infrastructural growth-related investments cast an impressive outlook for the stock. I believe the company’s regular efforts to augment the growth capabilities of its regulated business’ infrastructure with regular infrastructural improvement and enhancement-related investments will bode well for its future EPS growth. These healthy growth prospects of PPL will ultimately better its future cash flow productivity level and this will in turn help the company maintain its practice of paying increasingly healthy dividends in the years ahead. Moreover, PPL’s current valuations are more attractive than its peers and the industry average. Nevertheless, un-foreseen adverse weather conditions, volatility in fuel prices and strict regulatory restrictions are key threats that will keep on hovering over the company’s future financial performance. Over the last few years, the U.S. utility industry has faced challenges such as a decline in energy demand by industries amid the recession. Furthermore, the regulatory uncertainties and restrictions imposed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) caused industry disruptions. However, the EIA has projected that energy demand in the U.S. will increase by 2.1% in residential space in the second of 2015 and will grow by 0.7% in industrial space in 2015, which indicates that the overall utility industry’s outlook is attractive. To combat the industrial headwinds and to meet the expected rise in energy demand, the U.S. utility industry players have accelerated their growth investments in order to get a broader regulated infrastructure. Like all of the other utility industry players, PPL is also making hefty infrastructural investments; around $10 billion is projected to be spent by the company on infrastructure improvement by the end of 2017, which will help it apply for regular rate base hikes and will ultimately drive its future earnings and revenues. I continue to believe that this utility company’s attractive growth investments will help it enjoy EPS growth in future, which will support its cash flows and dividend growth. PPL, however, is confident of achieving a 6% compounded annual earnings growth rate through 2017. And for its U.K. operations, the company now expects EPS growth of 1% to 2%, in contrast to its previous expectation of flat earnings growth. I think that these strong earnings growth potentials will augur well for the stock valuation. To recover the capital investments made previously, the company has applied for a 5.1% rate case hike. Although the case is still waiting for regulatory approval, if approved, it will add around $124 million per year towards PPL’s revenues. The company has plans to use the proceeds of its rate cases in technological upgradation and improvement-related projects. In this regard, recently, PPL asked for the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission’s approval to make an investment of $450 million in the technology upgradation process of meters in order to resolve their problems associated with old meters. This investment will not only improve the company’s image as a quality regulated utility but will also benefit its EPS growth, because the cost of investment will be recovered through a special rate rider; as per the management’s estimates, this investment will increase rate base by $330 million . Moreover, two of PPL’s subsidiaries, namely Louisiana Gas And Electric Company and Kentucky Utilities Company, have recently signed a $220 million agreement with Paringa Resources Limited for the purchase of coal from Buck Creek No.1 mine, with the completion of certain construction-related work, coal purchase under this agreement will begin in 2018. The coal purchase agreement will extend PPL’s energy generation resources, thereby improving its load capacity and will help it apply for rate case, which in turn will help it in reporting incremental EPS growth. Furthermore, the company has maintained an impressive record of sharing its cash flows with shareholders through healthy dividend payments. Owing to consistent dividend growth, currently, PPL offers an attractive yield of 4.44% . Moreover, the commitment to keep its dividends growing has been affirmed by the company’s chairman in the 3Q2015 earnings conference call; he said : “Regarding the dividend, we expect minimal dividend growth again for 2016 as we strive to get the payout ratio down into the mid-60% range, at which time we will target a 4% to 6% dividend growth rate, more in line with our earnings growth expectations. We currently expect to be in the targeted payout range by the end of 2016. So our current expectation is that we will grow the dividend more meaningfully starting in 2017, but our current expectation for 2017 is at the low end of the 4 to 6% relative to the dividend.” Due to the abovementioned strong strategic growth prospects, I think the chairman’s dividend growth expectation is realistic and achievable. Moreover, PPL’s strong balance sheet position, as reflected in the chart below, makes me believe in the company’s ability to continue sharing a decent portion of its future cash flows with shareholders in the years ahead. Source: 4-traders.com Final Words PPL is a compelling investment prospect for income-hunting investors. The company’s strategic investments in utility infrastructure development and extension-related projects and its strong balance sheet position are in-line with its long-term growth generating strategy. Moreover, PPL’s strategy of sharing its cash flow base strength with shareholders through dividend payments will continue to positively affect its stock price. Also, earnings for PPL are expected to grow at a growth rate of 4.86% , better than Southern Company (NYSE: SO )’s earnings growth expectations of 3.88% . Also, PPL has attractive stock valuations in comparison to SO and the industry average, as displayed below. Source: Yahoo Finance & NYU.edu