Tag Archives: ukraine

These Country ETFs Benefit From Oil Rebound

It’s truly been a roller-coaster ride for oil. The liquid commodity plunged to a six-and-a-half year low at the start of the week only to record the highest single-day gain in over six years to end the week. While pockets of weakness in most global superpowers including the Euro zone, China and Japan have resulted in weaker activities and weighed on crude oil prices so far, the recent rout in the Chinese market following its currency devaluation and grave economic situation slaughtered the already weak oil prices (read: 4 Ways to Short the Energy Sector with ETFs ). However, after a week-long losing streak, jittery investors worldwide saw some relief on Wednesday as China slashed rates to boost its economy and repeatedly intervened into the stock market to contain the relentless slide. Also, hunt for bargain took center stage. To add to this, the U.S. economy grew at 3.7% in Q2, which breezed past the initial reading of 2.3% growth and 0.6% expansion recorded in the seasonally weak Q1. A strong rebound in the U.S. economy, which is in fact the world’s largest economy, ruled out the demand-related fear out of the oil space. Plus, as per the American Petroleum Institute (API) crude stock piles declined by 7.3 million barrels in the week ending August 21,whcih is way lower than analysts’ projection of a rise of 1.9 million barrels in crude inventories. This overall bullish sentiment showered massive gains on oil prices on August 27 as oil advanced around 10%. Both WTI and Brent crude benefited from this unexpected surge. As a result, key oil producing and exporting countries that were on a downtrend so long, saw a sharp rise on Thursday trading. As we all know, ETFs offer a great opportunity while it comes to playing a particular nation. In light of this, we have highlighted a few country ETFs that could see a turnaround in the days ahead should oil price continue to rise ( see all energy ETFs here). Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSEARCA: RSX ) Things have been pretty tough for Russia for last one-and-a-half year. If the tussle between Russia and the West on the Ukraine issue bothered the country, oil – seemingly the main commodity of the nation – posed further risks to its economy (read: 3 Russia ETFs at Bargain Prices Right Now ). RSX is the most popular and liquid option in the space with an asset base of $1.6 billion and average trading volume of more than 11 million shares a day. The fund tracks the Market Vectors Russia Index to provide exposure to the Russian equities. The energy sector accounts for about 43% of RSX with Gazprom and Lukoil – the Russian energy giants – taking more than 15% share of the fund. RSX charges 63 basis points as expenses. The fund was up 6.7% on August 27. iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund (NYSEARCA: EWM ) The Malaysian equity market has been also been a weak spot lately as its neighboring country China devalued its currency in mid August. Also, falling oil price hurt the stocks of the oil-rich Malaysia, which happens to be one of the largest Asian crude exporters. Political crisis is another cause of concern for Malaysia (read: 3 Country ETFs Impacted By China Currency Devaluation ). The $256 million-fund EWM looks to track the performance of the Malaysian equity market. EWM charges investors 48 basis points a year in fees and was up 5.2% on August 27 both on oil price recovery and the return of risk-on trade sentiment into the market. iShares MSCI UAE Capped ETF (NASDAQ: UAE ) Oil-rich OPEC nations (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) must be the big beneficiary of this sudden surge in oil. UAE is such a country. The fund provides exposure to 32 stocks by tracking the MSCI All UAE Capped Index. The ETF has accumulated $27.5 million in AUM so far while charging investors 62 bps in annual fees. Volume is paltry trading in about 15,000 shares a day on average. The fund returned 5.5% on August 27. Another OPEC nation Qatar also got mileage out of this jump. Its pure play ETF, MSCI Qatar Capped ETF (NASDAQ: QAT ) soared 8.1% yesterday while yet another Middle East fund Market Vectors Gulf States Index ETF (NYSEARCA: MES ) added over 4.7%. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (NYSEARCA: EWC ) Canada is also among the world’s top 10 oil producers. The best way to invest in Canada is through iShares MSCI Canada ETF, a product that has nearly $1.88 billion in assets. The fund tracks the MSCI Canada Index, holding just under 100 stocks in its basket. Although financials takes the top spot at about 40%, energy makes up a huge chunk of assets accounting for about 20% of the total. The fund gained over 3.6% on August 27, 2015. EWC charges 48 bps in fees. Original Post

2 ETFs To Hold For The Next 25 Years

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF may be a better way to invest in the American economy than the S&P 500. The Dow Jones Industrial Average typically outperforms the S&P 500 over longer periods of time, especially when dividends are factored in. The Russian stock market is one that investors typically fear, but there is reason to believe that this may be one of the best assets to own going forward. Russia currently has one of the cheapest stock markets in the world and trades at the low-end of its historical valuation range. The Russian market is projected to outperform all major markets in the world going forward, once commodity prices recover. For many investors, investing in exchange-traded funds (also known as ETFs) makes much more sense than purchasing individual stocks. This is because the ETF includes many different stocks that allow one to effectively diversify away company-specific risks while still allowing that investor to profit off of a given theme. In this article, we will examine two ETFs that could easily deserve a position in any investor’s portfolio and that will likely prove to be very profitable holdings over the next 25 years. SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA: DIA ) The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been one of the most widely followed indicators of overall stock market activity for more than a century. The index is composed of thirty stocks that the publishers of the index, currently S&P Dow Jones Indices, believe best represent the composition of the United States economy. Unlike most of the other major stock market indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index. This means that companies with higher stock prices such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ), and International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM ) make up a larger portion of the index than companies with lower stock prices such as Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO ) or General Electric (NYSE: GE ). Unfortunately, this also results in these companies’ stock performance having an outsized impact on the performance of the index that may be completely disconnected from their respective market caps. For example, the stock price performance of Goldman Sachs has a 75% greater influence over the index’s performance as Apple’s stock price performance, despite Apple having a market cap more than six times greater. Given these problems with price-weighted indices, one may wonder why I am suggesting an investment in the Dow Jones Industrial Average instead of a broader, market capitalization-weighted index such as the S&P 500. Well, the reason is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has historically outperformed the S&P 500. This is immediately apparent when we compare the performance of the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF to that of the largest ETF tracking the broader Standard & Poors 500 Index, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ). Here is how the two ETFs have performed over the past ten years: SPY data by YCharts As this chart shows, the S&P 500 ETF outperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past ten years (although for much of that time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was outperforming the S&P 500). But, this comparison excludes one very critical factor. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is by and large composed of mature, slow-growing companies that pay out a portion of their earnings to investors in the form of dividends. While the S&P 500 Index does include companies like this, it also includes a number of younger, high-growth companies as well as other firms that for whatever reason choose not to pay dividends. As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average typically boasts a higher dividend yield than the S&P 500. This needs to be factored in when determining relative performance. Here is the same chart, this time showing the total return produced by each of the two ETFs over the trailing ten-year period: SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts As this chart shows, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past ten years when dividends are factored in (although yesterday’s decline in the Dow brought the two into parity). This outperformance becomes even more pronounced over longer time periods. Here is the same chart showing the total return of both ETFs since the beginning of 1998 (when the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF was first made available for purchase). SPY Total Return Price data by YCharts As this chart shows, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 over longer time periods. It is for this reason that this ETF, and not the one tracking the S&P 500, is my choice for investors interested in making a broad-based bet on the future of the American economy. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF does a respectable job of tracking its underlying index due to the fact that the ETF itself is composed of the same stocks that comprise the index and in relatively similar weightings. Here are all of the ETF’s holdings, sorted by weight: (click to enlarge) Source: State Street Global Advisors As the chart clearly shows, the ETF simply consists of an identical number of shares of each of the companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average with the relative weightings being determined by the stock price of each company. This is exactly the same way that the index itself is constructed. With that said however, the weighting of each company owned by the ETF is slightly lower than in the index itself due to the fact that the ETF holds a cash position and the index itself does not contain cash. However, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF is still an excellent way for investors to track the index itself. Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSEARCA: RSX ) At first glance, this may seem to be an unlikely choice for a long-term ETF holding. After all, Russia is a nation that is widely considered to have a high degree of corruption in its business environment, has been economically sanctioned by several Western nations due to recent events in the Ukraine, and is not generally considered to be an investor-friendly place to invest. However, there is much to like here. One of the ratios that can be used to measure the relative stock market valuations present in a nation is the total market cap to GNP ratio. Investing legend Warren Buffett once described this ratio is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. Using this measure, the Russian stock market is one of the most undervalued in the world. Unfortunately, it can be difficult to obtain accurate GNP information on many countries, but we can calculate the ratio using GDP instead to illustrate this fact. At the time of writing, Russia had a GDP of $2.12 trillion compared to the United States’ $17.7 trillion. Meanwhile, the Russian stock market had a total market capitalization of $380 billion compared to the United States’ $21.88 trillion. Thus, Russia has a total market cap to GDP of 17.9% compared to 123.6% for the United States (lower values indicate a cheaper market). Here is how this compares to other major markets around the world: Source: GuruFocus As this chart shows, the Russian market is only rivaled by Italy in terms of relative valuation. This is very close to the lowest valuation that the Russian market has traded at since it became accessible to investors. Meanwhile, many other markets around the world are near the midpoints or upper ends of their historical valuations: (click to enlarge) Source: GuruFocus This valuation would seem to imply that the Russian market has some of the greatest potential for outperformance going forward. Investment research site GuruFocus performed a complete analysis of the forward return potential present in each country given the historical GDP growth of each of these countries, the dividend payments from each country’s corresponding ETF, and an assumption that each country’s market will revert to its mean valuation. Here are their projections on the returns of each of these markets going forward: Source: GuruFocus As this chart shows, analysts expect the Russian stock market to outperform all other major national markets going forward. However, there are some caveats here. First and foremost, the Russian economy is highly dependent on commodity prices, both energy and metals. As such, the Market Vectors Russia ETF contains significant exposure to energy and commodities companies. As many of you reading this are no doubt aware, commodity and energy prices have fallen significantly over the past year and many analysts expect that prices will be suppressed for quite some time. This has significantly weakened the Russian economy as well as pressured the cash flows and profits at the companies that make up the majority of the ETF’s assets. It is unlikely that either the nation’s economy or corporate profits will recover until commodity prices do and thus it is likely that the ETF will underperform until that occurs. However, I find it unlikely that commodity prices will be depressed over the 25-year period over which this article refers and thus the Market Vectors Russia ETF looks like an appealing investment. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in RSX over the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: I have long positions in S&P 500 tracking index funds, but not in SPY specifically.

Russian Bears, Ukrainian Beets, Battlestar Novorossiya

Two events are driving the global economy: the Russo-Ukrainian war and the collapse of oil. Both the EU and the Russian Federation want to maintain the global economic status quo at the expense of Ukrainian territorial loss. Portfolios should be robust to continued expansion as well as black swan events. Many of the naysayers of the new year 2015 are being proven wrong: there has been no significant market correction in U.S. equities – as Bill Gross of Janus Capital and others had foreseen for 2015 – and Europe is showing signs of slow growth, despite numerous bears claiming the opposite. Timing is notoriously difficult and self-fulfilling with doomsday prophecies. I argue that there are two factors that any portfolio must be robust to, and each of these possesses its own positive or negative drag on the global economic environment: Russia and oil. Vladimir Putin of Russia could start World War III within seconds if he so desired, but he knows the country’s economy simply isn’t ready. Russia’s activity in Eastern Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula has in one year established a new norm in geopolitics: an ebb and flow between Russian aggression and Western appeasement, both of which are understandable from each side’s perspective. President Putin will not accept a loss in Eastern Ukraine because it is antithetical to his ideology that Russia is both under attack from the West and simultaneously superior to it . In comparison, Francois Hollande of France and Angela Merkel of Germany know that any escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict could trigger open war and disrupt the EU’s fledgling recovery – German GDP rose 0.7% in the 4th quarter , after growing 0.1% in the previous 3 months. There is little confidence on Wall Street that the Minsk II agreements signed on February 11th will lead to prolonged peace, as the DJIA surged 72 points after the Minsk Protocol in September 2014 and decreased by 3 points after Minsk II and the German GDP surprise. The other looming fundamental driver is the price of oil. The market seems to lag when oil falls and prosper when oil increases. After flirting with the technically significant price of $43 per barrel, oil markets rallied on substantial CapEx cuts in the industry. However, there is no surety that oil will not plunge into the $30s this year. As Tom Kloza of Oil Price Information iterates , oil prices will bottom in Q2 corresponding with “one of the expirations of the WTI contracts.” The International Energy Agency explained that “ample supplies will raise global inventories before investment cuts begin to significantly dent production.” Combined with the astronomical impact of low oil prices on Russia’s budget, there is reason to suspect that the US is saving oil manipulation as a last economic tactic against further Russian aggression. The question is, which black swan event will happen first – open war in Ukraine or a collapse in oil? U.S. bond and equity markets are rallying despite mediocre economic fundamentals, because the U.S. is the only place to invest globally. Not that the U.S. is a powerhouse of growth and prosperity – it is, relatively, the only space where investors can earn better-than-index returns with a reasonable amount of risk. US Treasury yields are at record lows, because the dollar is strong and the U.S. Treasury is the only entity in the world that investors still believe has zero default probability. U.S. equities continue to trade at unusually high levels for two reasons: first, capital has poured into U.S. equities in search of higher returns in the low interest rate environment, fueling a sustained rally in the stock market (barring the “correction that wasn’t” that took place in October 2014); second, U.S. companies are taking advantage of low interest rates to lever returns at debt ratios not seen since before the collapse in 2008. A collapse in oil could be the catalyst that brings the U.S. equity market down to earth, especially given the heavy interdependencies between Western and Russian corporations. As long as the status quo remains the same and a black swan event doesn’t occur, this bubble may actually last and transition into a normal economic growth cycle. But that’s the catch – can the status quo be maintained? Expect Russian aggression and a collapse in oil to be inevitably linked. If one happens, so will the other. In this scenario, a portfolio overweight with U.S. treasuries and municipal bonds is ideal, with significant cash on hand to buy U.S. equities in the oil space on the dip. The status quo survives if Eastern Ukraine turns into a frozen conflict on the likes of Transnistria and Abkhazia as the U.S. and eurozone transition out of recovery into expansion. In this case, a portfolio overweight in cyclicals is ideal. Each scenario seems equally likely, so a risk-parity portfolio robust to both cases might be the best option. Unfortunately, neither the Ukrainians nor the Russians appear willing to concede territory at any cost, so look here to history for the consequences of inaction. Appealing to the words of Winston Churchill, “An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.” Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.