Tag Archives: twtr

Are We Near Peak Twitter? Usage Weakens Again Despite New Features

Twitter ( TWTR ) reported late Wednesday that user growth slowed for the fourth consecutive quarter in Q4 as it guided Q1 revenue below consensus estimates, raising concerns that usage may be peaking. The average monthly active user base rose 9% year over year in Q4 to 320 million. Wall Street had expected Twitter to report a 12% rise in users to 323 million. Growth has cooled from 18% in Q1, to 15% in Q2 and 11% in Q3. Excluding “SMS Fast Followers,” monthly active users rose 6% annually to 305 million but fell from 307 million in Q3. Adjusted earnings rose 33% to 16 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected 12 cents. Revenue jumped 48% to $710.5 million, above the $709.9 million consensus expectation. Twitter sees Q1 revenue of $595 million-$610 million, below Wall Street views of $627.1 million. Shares declined 3% in late trading, after rising 4% in the regular session. User growth concerns have depressed Twitter stock, which sunk to an all-time low of 14.31 on Tuesday. Twitter’s report followed LinkedIn’s ( LNKD ) stock crash last Thursday after the professional networking firm gave guidance far below the Wall Street consensus estimate, while also reporting Q4 earnings that beat. The continued slowdown in Twitter usage came despite a series of new features it rolled out last year, including video tool Periscope and Moments. Earlier Wednesday, the social media network said it is testing a new feature that would make the microblog look a bit more like its No. 1 rival, social networking king Facebook ( FB ). ‘Few – If Any – Bright Spots’ Chilton Capital Management economist Samuel Rines told IBD via email that “the user metrics — the key to sustainable future growth — collapsed,” noting that active users fell in the U.S. and were flat internationally. “The decline in users was the truly disappointing part of the release,” he said. “And it is even more disheartening given that there is an election cycle, and (Republican presidential candidate) Donald Trump’s tweets should have been at least somewhat of a draw to the platform. There were few — if any — bright spots in the release.” Rines also directly attributed Twitter’s soft Q1 revenue guidance to its weak user growth. “It now becomes a conversation around whether we have seen peak Twitter usage,” he said. “And management will have a difficult—if not impossible job of proving otherwise without a sudden reacceleration in user growth. It’s tough to see how product usage accelerates—at least with the current product and rate of innovation.” On a call with analysts after the release, Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey said the company “saw some really promising growth with the test of the timeline (changes). We think there’s a lot of opportunity in our product to fix some broken windows and confusing aspects of our service that we know are inhibiting growth.” But user retention rates were positive in Q4, said Twitter CFO Anthony Noto on the call. “The retention rate of those users that we either resurrected or that we acquired new was strong. In fact, new monthly active users acquired through marketing efforts were performing better from a retention rate standpoint vs. new organic MAUs we acquired.” Limited Potential? “So, we will continue to integrate marketing into our strategy,” Noto added. “We are going to simplify the product, but we also have to clearly communicate its value. Marketing will play that role.” In an industry report on Wednesday before the release, Cowen and Co. analyst John Blackledge handed Twitter stock a price cut, to 17 from 26. Blackledge also he lowered revenue estimates for Twitter for 2016 through 2021. Advertising, which makes up 90% of Twitter’s total revenues, will “see continued deceleration over time,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Mahaney wrote in a report last week. “Our concern for some time has been that Twitter’s lack of real-time commercial intent (a la Alphabet ( GOOGL )-owned Google) or detailed, authentic profiles (a la Facebook) will eventually limit Twitter’s growth potential.”

Twitter Shifts More Like Facebook — Flap To Follow, Or More Users?

Twitter ( TWTR ) is testing a new feature that would bring major changes to how people view tweets in their timelines, making the microblog look a bit more like its No. 1 rival, social networking leader Facebook ( FB ). Twitter said that it would start displaying tweets by relevance instead of its usual reverse-chronological-order approach. Some industry observers say that the change could help Twitter bring everyday users aboard rather than keep the service in its current status as a niche haven heavily used by hardcore tweeters such as PR people and journalists. The new feature “helps you catch up on the best Tweets from people you follow,” Twitter said in a blog post on Wednesday, a few hours before the company’s Q4 earnings release . With the new service, “tweets you’re most likely to care about will appear at the top of your timeline — still recent and in reverse chronological order. The rest of the Tweets will be displayed right underneath, also in reverse chronological order, as always. At any point, just pull-to-refresh to see all new Tweets at the top in the live, up-to-the-second experience you already know and love,” the company said. After getting feedback on the change and making tweaks, Twitter said that it would “be turning on the feature for you in coming weeks — look out for a notification in your timeline.” Users who dislike the new look “can easily turn it off,”  the company said. A tweetstorm of controversy arose Friday night after unconfirmed reports that the company planned to prioritize tweets based on user preferences rather than a real-time algorithm. Twitter has two groups to please, said Will McInnes, chief marketing officer of Brandwatch, which monitors and analyzes social media, after those reports emerged. Twitter’s user base is divided into “hardcore, weathered veterans, who know and love the platform just how it is, and those newbies that don’t get how it works and don’t stick around to figure it out,” McInnes told IBD via email. “But common to so much else in life, Twitter cannot remain in stasis just simply to placate the most vocal and motivated. How Twitter works must change, and employing an algorithmic timeline feels like a big, important shift to test out.” Earlier reports said that the social network was mulling upsizing its tweet limit to 10,000 characters from the current 140. Snappy, short tweets have been Twitter’s calling card since the company started in 2006. Twitter stock was up 5% in afternoon trading in the stock market today , near 15. Facebook stock was up 3%, near 103. Growth concerns have depressed Twitter stock, which sunk to a new all-time low of 14.31 on Tuesday. Twitter is down 79% from its all-time high of 74.73, touched in late December 2013. Twitter stock dropped 7% on Friday as business social network LinkedIn ( LNKD ) crashed almost 44%  after low guidance given with a quarterly report. Twitter sank more than 5% Monday and more than 3% Tuesday on difficult days for tech stocks, with Internet review site Yelp ( YELP ) dropping about 11% Monday after a midday earnings report . LinkedIn was trading up about 3% Wednesday afternoon.

LinkedIn Implodes, Twitter Erupts Over Report It’ll Blow Itself Up

LinkedIn ( LNKD ) shares lost nearly half their value on the stock market today after the professional networker announced grim 2016 forecasts. Then a report that  Twitter ( TWTR ) would radically revamp its service triggered outrage from core users. Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey on Saturday denied major changes were imminent. Twitter can help make connections in real-time based on dynamic interests and topics, rather than a static social/friend graph. We get it. — Jack (@jack) February 6, 2016 That was in response to a late Friday  Buzzfeed report  that Twitter would adopt a new algorithmic timeline, as soon as next week. The new system would order tweets based on what Twitter thinks you want to see, rather than the current reverse chronological order. The goal would be to make Twitter more attractive to new and casual users so they can see more targeted tweets, eliminating the unwanted posts. It was unclear if Twitter would make the change optional or mandatory, Buzzfeed said. The latter would greatly upset power users such as journalists, who use the chronological timelime to spot and follow breaking news. Twitter was abuzz with angry posts Friday night and Saturday morning, with #RIPTwitter quickly trending and complaints that Twitter would be become like Facebook ( FB ). Twitter staff meeting: ‘Our stock is crashing. How do we fix Twitter?’ ‘Make the user experience worse every week?’ ‘Crazy enough to work!’ — Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) February 6, 2016 Facebook has used algorithms for years so people see posts from their favorite friends or sources. Facebook’s ongoing efforts have worked for the company, with more than one billion daily users — and still growing. Twitter’s growth, meanwhile has basically stalled, though revenue has swelled due to higher ad revenue and other monetization. Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, since returning to the company late last year, has signaled a desire to shake up the company. Twitter reportedly is mulling an end to its 140-character limit on tweets. That’s another rumored move that would move Twitter in the direction of Facebook. LinkedIn also is going through a strategy shift. Late Thursday, LinkedIn reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings. But it gave 2016 revenue and earnings targets far below Wall Street views. Part of the reason was LinkedIn’s decision to shut its Lead Accelerator business, which had technology aimed at helping marketers better target prospects. LinkedIn said the project wasn’t worth the time and money, but analysts said they may have to rethink LinkedIn’s prospects. Twitter reports earnings on Wednesday, with analysts expecting a 48% revenue rise to $709.9 million, with earnings per share ex items flat at 12 cents. #SuggestedTwitterAlgorithims Posting “your an idiot” takes you to a grammar basics cheat sheet. — Renna (@RennaW) February 6, 2016 Twitter shares fell 7% on Friday to a record closing low. LinkedIn crashed nearly 44% to a 3-year low. Facebook skidded nearly 6% on Friday and more than 7% for the week, despite hitting a record high on Tuesday.