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Comcast, Charter, Altice Cable Swaps Eyed After Deal Approvals

Charter Communications ( CHTR ) is moving closer to gaining federal regulators’ approval for acquiring Time Warner Cable ( TWC ) — a deal that could set the stage for assets swaps among cable TV firms, including  Comcast ( CMCSA ), analysts say. The Federal Communications Commission reportedly is set to greenlight the Charter-TWC merger, with conditions, though the deal is still being studied by California’s state regulators. Charter stock rose to just shy of a record high on the report. Regulators thwarted Comcast’s proposed purchase of TWC in early 2015. Europe-based Altice Group , however, expects to gain approval for its purchase of Cablevision Systems ( CVC ) in May, the company said. Altice earlier acquired Suddenlink Communications. If both the Charter-TWC and Altice-Cablevision deals sail through, cable TV firms are likely to explore asset swaps of cable systems in different markets, says a Barclays research report. “Post the completion of pending cable deals, there is some likelihood of potential asset swaps between the remaining distributors to align footprints more closely and extract more in synergies,” said Barclays. “While the regulatory push-back is fair to consider in this instance, we note that the FCC has concluded in the past that pro-competitive effects of clustering of cable systems tend to outweigh the negatives.” Even if the FCC approves the Charter-TWC merger, California’s OK might not come until late May, analysts say. Charter also plans to buy privately held Bright House Networks. Netflix ‘s ( NFLX ) support has smoothed the path for Charter’s deals, analysts say. Both TWC and Cablevision offer services in the New York City area, a big market. RBC Capital says the FCC might still be opposed to any sizable acquisitions by Comcast, the nation’s No. 1 cable TV firm. Comcast also owns NBCUniversal. “Comcast would be unlikely to be allowed to acquire a major cable firm or programmer, but could acquire long-distance assets, a wireless operator, or could engage in clustering and swaps with other cable operators,” RBC analyst Jonathan Atkin wrote in a recent research report. Charter stock rose 6% in the stock market today , to 198.16. Charter peaked at 199 last March. Time Warner Cable stock rose 3.3% Wednesday.

AT&T, Comcast Election Watch: Trump To Favor National Champions?

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump could favor large-scale telecom M&A to build national champions, while Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton would likely nominate a new FCC chairman with views similar to current FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler, who promotes competition. So says RBC Capital in an outlook report on the presidential election. Republican primaries in five states on Tuesday, including Florida and Ohio, are critical for Trump, who leads in delegates vs. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. On the Democratic side, Clinton has been unable to put away Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Under Wheeler, the Federal Communications Commission thwarted Comcast ’s ( CMCSA ) acquisition of Time Warner Cable ( TWC ), and snuffed out merger talks between Sprint ( S ) and T-Mobile US ( TMUS ). The FCC, though, did allow  AT&T ( T ) to buy DirecTV Group. Many of Wheeler’s regulatory policy changes, meanwhile, have targeted Internet service providers, such as Comcast, AT&T and Verizon Communications ( VZ ). Jonathan Atkin, an RBC Capital analyst, says that based on his research, Trump is a telecom wild card. “Trump, on this topic, is considerably less predictable and could be an advocate of large national champions to enhance competitiveness vs. foreign countries, and hence, in certain cases, more accepting of consolidation,” Atkin said in the research report. “Cruz’s, Rubio’s or Kasich’s stance on antitrust could likely be similar to those of Bush or Reagan,” Atkin added. “This does not mean that every merger would be supported, but it would be 10%-20% easier to get horizontal deals done under a Republican vs. Democratic administration, in the view of one regulatory contact,” Atkin wrote. In a new Democratic administration, Atkin speculates that Comcast could buy a wireless company but probably not more cable TV assets. Within the telecom industry, there’s a perception Wheeler has favored Silicon Valley and Internet companies such as Apple ( AAPL ), Alphabet ’s ( GOOGL ) Google and Facebook ( FB ) ( IBD ) vs. Internet service providers. Broadband service providers are currently challenging Wheeler’s “net neutrality” rules in federal court. Atkin’s view is that Sanders’ election would be the worst outcome for the telecom companies. “Clinton could end up bringing in as FCC chair someone who is similarly aligned as Mr. Wheeler,” Atkin said. “Sanders could select as FCC chair someone who is even possibly more consumer-oriented than the current chair, and may possibly attempt to rate regulate broadband.”

Comcast Ramps X1 Set-Top Boxes As FCC Plans Market Makeover

Comcast[ ticker symb=CMCSA] is pulling out all the stops marketing its Xfinity video service and its new set-top boxes, at a time when the FCC plans to stoke set-top competition. The nation’s No. 1 cable TV firm advertised its Xfinity video-on-demand service during Super Bowl 50, where the big game’s ad rates were quoted at $2.5 million-plus for 30-second slots. Moreover, Comcast this year launched a social media campaign targeting millennials. Comcast paid Twitter ( TWTR ) to co-develop short Web videos from 19 social media personalities based on their Xfinity product experiences. The social media personalities posted videos on platforms such as Instagram and Vine while Twitter promoted them in tweets. Meanwhile, Comcast says its field technicians are installing 40,000 advanced X1 set-top boxes per day in homes. Some 30% of Comcast’s video customers — more than 7 million — were using X1 set-top boxes as of Jan. 1. By year-end, Comcast expects at least half of its 22 million video subscribers will be using Internet-ready, X1 set-top boxes in their homes. Comast is getting pay-back for its Xfinity marketing push. Comcast added 89,000 video customers in Q4, its biggest quarterly net gain in TV subscribers in eight years. Some analysts forecast Comcast could see a net add in TV subscribers in 2016, despite a trend toward Internet video among young adults, some of whom have never subscribed to pay-TV. “We’ve got to play offense with things like X1,” Comcast CEO Brian Roberts said on the company earnings conference call this month. Comcast’s capital spending is expected to rise 8% in 2016 to $9.2 billion, driven by its X1 deployment and spending at NBCU Universal theme parks. Comcast Offering Short Web Video Clips The X1 entertainment platform provides access to live broadcast, on-demand video and DVR-stored content. In November, Comcast partnered with 30 broadcast and cable networks to bring short-form Web clips to X1 set-tops, as part of its video-on-demand (VOD) lineup. Internet search, Web browsing and a Netflix ( NFLX ) app are not, for now, part of X1. DVR-stored content is in the Internet cloud, not the set-top, providing more space. Customers can watch DVR content on mobile devices as well as TV sets. Analysts say Comcast has put a lot of work into developing a cloud-based TV channel guide and user interface, a voice-controlled remote, programming recommendations, on-screen sports app and social media features for sharing video. “X1 represents the industry’s best-in-class technology due to the volume of content available, the flexible cloud infrastructure and the simplicity of its user interface,” Nomura analyst Anthony DiClemente said in a recent research report. Comcast has a huge VOD library of movies and TV shows. It aims to take advantage of marketing opportunities, such as the Oscars. Comcast in February provided some 20 past Academy Award winners on X1 VOD  as well as content gleaned from past Oscar telecasts. With X1, one goal is to drive up subscribers’ average monthly spending, with VOD and other purchases. Aside from video subscriber gains, the company eyes ad gains. Comcast aims to use viewing data gleaned from set-top boxes for targeted advertising — inserting commercials for specific audiences into VOD and other programming. To protect privacy, set-top viewing data is aggregated and anonymous. Comcast has acquired two companies, FreeWheel and Visible World, to build up its targeted-advertising platform. The cable TV firm also has been working with content companies.  Amid falling TV audience ratings, they’re eager to obtain TV data on par with digital platforms. Advertisers have upped their spending on the Internet, where they can target individuals based on what websites they visit and what searches they conduct. FCC Wants More Set-Top Competition Amid Comcast’s big Xfinity push, federal regulators now aim to increase competition in the set-top box market. The Federal Communications Commission plans to make it easier for consumers to switch from set-top boxes leased monthly from pay-TV companies to new devices sold at retail by consumer electronics or Internet companies. Besides Comcast, the initiative could impact Charter Communications ( CHTR ), Time Warner Cable ( TWC ),   AT&T ( T ) and other pay-TV firms that lease set-top boxes for a monthly fee. The new set-top rules could be approved by year-end, though the pay-TV industry is waging a fight against them, with some support in Congress. The cable firms say the new rules aren’t needed in an arena where innovation sparks fast changes. In any case, it could take until 2019 before more of these set-top consumer products appear in the market, because pay-TV companies would have two years to comply with new regulations. By then, Comcast would have a big head start in rolling out X1 technology. Still, new entrants in the set-top box market could match many X1 features, says Joel Espelien, an analyst at the Diffusion Group. “X1 is nice, but I seriously doubt any of its features are defensible in the long run,” he said. Even features such as cloud-based DVR storage may not set X1 apart, he added. “We see declining interest in DVR among millennials,” added Espelien. “They don’t get why they have to ‘record’ things.”