Tag Archives: ttm

Tesla Motors Model 3 Launch Live Updates: Online Reservations Open

Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) will unveil its mass-market Model 3 soon, with the big reveal starting around 8:30 p.m. Online reservations began at 7:30 p.m. Earlier in the day, it dropped jaws. “There’s no lineup for vehicles in this day and age. Audi and BMW and Mercedes have to be awestruck — they just have to be,” Stifel auto analyst James Albertine told IBD in an afternoon phone interview. His team saw lines for Model 3 reservations stretching to the hundreds at some Tesla stores around Washington, D.C., and New York. He estimated about 30 to 40 reservations an hour in the spot checks. Back-of-the-napkin math would mean that if about 100 U.S. stores take 30 reservations an hour for nine hours a day, that’s 27,000 reservations representing $945 million worth of potential sales in the U.S. alone, and all before online reservations began. (But not all stores may have seen such traffic, nor may the traffic have flowed consistently through the day. And at a refundable $1,000 a pop, analysts say, reservations could see some attrition when the Model 3 finally starts to roll off the line in late 2017.) Launch Party Updates IBD is at the launch event at Tesla’s Los Angeles design studio, with a crowd of Tesla owners and journalists. CEO Elon Musk is expected to take the stage around 8:30 p.m. Pacific, along with a live webcast. Now taking online reservations! Order your Model 3 at https://t.co/8uVlhvzpu5 #Model3 pic.twitter.com/Rj1kn1CPol — Tesla Motors (@TeslaMotors) April 1, 2016 “Model 3 Unveil:  Watch live tonight at 8:30pm Pacific,” Tesla says on its website. “Reserve online during the event.” At a starting sticker price of $35,000 before incentives, the Model 3 will sell for half the cost of the Model S and the Model X. Albertine expects pre-orders to come in “very strong” and that the stock “is going to be OK,” despite lofty expectations already built in. Tesla stock closed up 1.3% Thursday at 229.77, though it traded up to 233.50 in late trading ahead of the reveal. (IBD doesn’t rank the company highly at the moment, giving it a Composite Rating of just 28 out of a possible 99. It’s trading around where it was at the beginning of the year, after surging 63% from a February low.) Albertine sees the Model 3 impressing. After Tesla excelled in higher price bands with its current lineup, he expects the company to have “a really easy time taking over share” from internal combustion engine car brands in this new lower-price category. “The (Tesla) S is outselling the S Class,” Albertine said as a case in point, referring to Daimler ’s ( DDAIF ) Mercedes-Benz flagship sedan, with seven decades of development behind it. In 2015, Tesla’s Model S also outsold individual models from Volkswagen ( VLKAY ) units Audi and Porsche, as well as BMW, Tata Motors ’ ( TTM ) Jaguar and Toyota Motors ’ ( TM ) luxury brand Lexus in the U.S. large luxury vehicle category. And Albertine says that electric cars planned by other makers are unlikely to “merit any concern,” as Tesla’s cars are “that much better.” How many reservations will Tesla tally from its first day? “It’s not certain that we’ll know,” Albertine said, noting that Musk “tends to give numbers when the numbers are really good” and that if he doesn’t cite a number, its absence would “probably be viewed negatively.” How many Model 3 reservations will Tesla get this week? Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry is a bull on that. He predicted in a research note Wednesday, “Tesla Model 3 will break all the records in consumer tech in dollar terms for pre-order bookings.” He says it is widely believed that bookings could reach 100,000 by the end of the weekend, amounting to “$3.5 billion worth of pre-orders.” But, Albertine notes, “(it’s) important to keep in mind what’s real is the Model S and X, and the Model 3 is many, many quarters away from being production-ready.”

Tesla Stock Guns It On Guidance, As Bears Sniff Model 3 Launch

Electric car maker  Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) surged 4.7% to close at 150.47 in the stock market today , on the strength of its 2016 car-sales guidance and plans to unveil the Model 3 design in March. But what-ifs looming over the revolutionary startup could take a toll soon, in the bear case for the stock, after Tesla’s surprise Q4 loss. The bull case considers Tesla EVs eventually capturing a decent chunk of the car market, with persisting brand cachet a la Apple ( AAPL ). Tesla CEO Elon Musk bottom-lined the big picture, as he sees it. “Tesla is approximately doubling its cumulative sales every year. I’m not sure if this has happened in the car industry for nearly a century,” he said on the company’s earnings conference call with analysts late Wednesday. Musk noted that Tesla sold more large luxury vehicles in the U.S. last year than the individual model of any other carmaker. Its $70,000-plus Model S sedan outsold, at 25,202 units nationwide, Daimler ’s ( DDAIF ) Mercedes-Benz S-Class and CLS-Class, the BMW 6-Series and 7-Series,  Volkswagen ’s ( VLKAY ) Audi A7 and A8 and Porsche Panamera, Tata Motors ’ ( TTM ) Jaguar XJ and  Toyota ’s ( TM ) Lexus LS. But in doing so, and in gearing up to launch the Model X crossover SUV while building a battery factory, Tesla logged a $2.30 per share loss in 2015. And its 87-cent loss per share for Q4 came as a big surprise — analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had on average expected 10 cents EPS. Revenue surged 59% to $1.75 billion for the quarter and reached $5.29 billion for the year, but that also missed estimates. ‘Bar Has Been Set High’ Tesla sold 50,658 vehicles in 2015, mostly its Model S. But can it grow car deliveries as fast as it forecasts — now and years into the future? Therein lies the rub, reflected in Tesla’s stock action. Investors and traders have sent Tesla stock plummeting 36% this year, after gaining 8% in 2015, jumping 48% in 2014, and rocketing 344% in 2013. That’s against the backdrop of an 11% decline this year in the S&P 500 index. Stifel analyst James Albertine said in a research note Thursday, “we expect disbelief in guidance and heightened cash flow scrutiny to weigh on Tesla shares, if not today, over the short term (next 1-3 months).” Tesla has delivered, and forecasts, strong unit-sales growth amid very ambitious long-term goals — it has also blown some deadlines and incurred costs getting its designs right. The tricky falcon-wing doors on the recently introduced Model X crossover SUV, for example, are among factors weighing on how fast the California automaker’s production can ramp up. “The bar has been set high, yet again,” Pacific Crest Securities analyst Brad Erickson said in a research note after Tesla delivered Q4 results, in which it forecast unit sales of 80,000 to 90,000 vehicles in 2016. The fourth quarter “highlighted the immense difficulty of Tesla’s overall task involved in ramping production so quickly,” said Erickson, who rates Tesla sector weight. “While we continue to believe the company can grow into several hundred thousand cars per year by 2020, we struggle with the upside scenarios.” Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters see Tesla back in black for all quarters in 2016, with full-year EPS of $1.67 forecast and then $3.89 in 2017, after a $2.30 loss last year that followed two years of positive results on a non-GAAP basis (but annual losses on a GAAP basis). Revenue is seen ramping 63% in 2016 to $8.62 billion, then rising 25% to $10.75 billion in 2017. When Will Tesla Model 3 Launch? Albertine, who rates Tesla a buy, suspects that Tesla’s smaller Model 3 design due to be unveiled March 31 “will impress, though will be met with questions of cost, launch timing and margins.” That’s the bear case he lays out, and others question how much of the car market the Model 3 can actually command. With production and deliveries beginning in late 2017, it’s meant to compete — at $35,000 before incentives — with the likes of the popular BMW 3 Series. In some places, federal and state green-car incentives could cut the cost as much as $10,000, however. “The ‘story’ is far from complete, and the risk is still high,” Albertine writes, but it drives “the best potential ‘reward’ (our $325 target price remains intact) among our automotive coverage.” His bull case sees regulatory restrictions on vehicle emissions and fuel economy continuing despite the low price of oil and gas now, driving interest in EVs and specifically Tesla, after its great strides in carmaking. “Tesla vehicles are hardly perfect, but in 3.5 short years since launching, the Model S have come further on safety/connectivity/autonomous driving/performance than gasoline vehicles have come in decades,” he writes. Customers want to buy innovative products, and the Model S and Model X are “the most innovative products,” Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry told IBD. At the moment the ability to innovate and show revenue growth is paramount, he adds, while down the road profit will be driven not only by the Model 3, but also other product lines beyond cars, such as Tesla Energy (the stationary battery division), Tesla’s cloud and machine-learning platform that now powers its Autopilot car-automation software, and Tesla’s supercharger network. GM Chevy Bolt Gets Preorders General Motors ‘ ( GM ) Chevrolet Bolt is seen as one competitor to Tesla’s Model 3. GM’s electric vehicle, with a driving range of 200-plus miles between recharges, was shown off last month at the CES show in Las Vegas and at the Detroit auto show. It won’t officially be on sale for a year, but already one Canadian dealership enthusiastic about EV sales has taken 93 preorders for the Bolt , according to an InsideEVs report. How much competition will the Model 3 face? “The timing of the Model 3 also concerns me because it’s at least a year after the Chevrolet Bolt arrives,” Karl Brauer, senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book, said in an email to IBD. “And additional pure electrics with a similar range could easily show up by late 2017. These competitors will have full sales and service support in every state and major market, putting the pressure on Model 3 to keep up in this rapidly expanding market.” With a late-2017 launch, the Model 3 may compete in the luxury segment, Albertine notes. “As a result of lessons learned from Model S/X launches, Tesla expects a steeper Model 3 ramp,” he said in his research note. “Management noted the Model 3 sedan will be 20% lighter and less complex to manufacture vs. both the Models S/X. Management expects another 30% of improvement from economies of scale and vehicle design, which equates to a 50% price improvement (to $35k base) vs. the Model S ($70k base).”

Tesla Motors Soars After Predicting Up To 90,000 Deliveries In 2016

Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) reported a surprise fourth-quarter loss late Wednesday but shares spiked as the electric car maker was bullish on deliveries and said it would unveil its Model 3 mass-market car on March 31. Analyst consensus in a Thomson Reuters poll had called for Q4 earnings per share of 10 cents excluding various items. But Tesla reported an adjusted loss of 87 cents instead, deepened from 13 cents a year earlier. Tesla revenue rose  59%  to $1.75 billion in Q4, short of the $1.79 billion Wall Street view. However, Tesla expects to deliver 80,000 to 90,000 new Model S and Model X vehicles in 2016. Stifel analyst James Albertine had said in a research note Sunday that guidance might come in lower than the 80,000-85,000 vehicles that Tesla had previously anticipated. Tesla delivered 50,658 vehicles in 2015. That includes 17,478 vehicles in Q4, with 206 of the new Model X crossover SUV. Albertine said in a research note late Wednesday that he was “positively surprised” by Tesla’s reiteration of guidance. He noted that “customer deposits ticked higher sequentially, perhaps suggesting demand intact.” Tesla stock spiked 9% to 156.50 in late trading. Shares had closed down 3.1% to 143.67 in Wednesday’s regular session. “I think these are very strong numbers,” Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry told IBD Wednesday after Tesla’s report. “The guidance is very, very strong: 80,000 to 90,000 of the new Model S and Model X will be delivered in this fiscal year … growth of 60% to 80% a year.” Tesla’s ‘Loss Is A Positive’ The reason, he says, is that customers “want to buy innovative products” — which Tesla excels at making. Chowdhry added: “The loss is a positive. Why? Because they are investing in the future.” A demand chart that Tesla provided with its shareholder letter, on sales of large luxury vehicles “bodes extremely well for the future,” Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on a conference call with analysts. “The Model S was the best-selling premium sedan in the United States of any kind last year. Our sales increased by 51% and everybody else declined.” The 25,202 Model S sedans sold in 2015 topped Daimler ’s ( DDAIF ) Mercedes-Benz S-Class, which sold 21,934 units. The rest on the list all sold under 10,000 units: The BMW 6-Series and 7-Series, Mercedes-Benz CLS-Class, Volkswagen ’s ( VLKAY ) Audi A7 and A8, Tata Motors ’ ( TTM ) Jaguar XJ, Toyota ’s ( TM ) Lexus LS and the Porsche Panamera. Many analysts have questioned Tesla’s ability to ramp up production. For the current Q1 analysts had forecast 8 cents earnings per share, swinging from a year-ago loss, on revenue up 69% to $1.87 billion. Tesla Motors isn’t highly rated by IBD now and has fallen lately, with several analysts cutting views. Tesla stock was down 40% this year through Wednesday’s closing bell, in a market now in correction on concerns about the world economy and falling oil prices. The S&P 500 has fallen 9%, Ford ( F )   20%, General Motors ( GM ) 19%, Toyota 13% and the biggest stock of all, Apple ( AAPL ) 10%. Ford, General Motors, Toyota and Apple shares all fell fractionally Wednesday. “For 2016, we are planning for even faster delivery growth than last year. We plan to be net cash flow positive and achieve non-GAAP profitability for the year, even after investing about $1.5 billion to add more production capacity, start cell production at the (battery) Gigafactory, and establish additional customer support infrastructure.  Moderate GAAP profitability is expected in the fourth quarter. These investments will help prepare the way for Model 3, which is on schedule to be unveiled on March 31st and to start production and deliveries in late 2017,” Musk said in a letter to shareholders. “Tesla is approximately doubling its cumulative sales every year, I’m not sure if this has happened in the car industry for nearly a century,” Musk said on the call. But not everyone is so bullish on Tesla’s future. “Tesla likes to bill itself as a tech company, not an automobile company, but even tech companies have to turn a profit eventually,” said Karl Brauer, senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book. “While volume and revenue are both growing, costs continue to outpace both. Tesla can keep positioning itself for rapid future growth, and its investments in the battery factory and Model 3 suggest it might happen. Someday. The timing of the Model 3 also concerns me because it’s at least a year after the Chevrolet Bolt arrives, and additional pure electrics with a similar range could easily show up by late 2017.” Image provided by Shutterstock . RELATED: 3 Keys To Tesla Earnings As $35K Model 3 A Go: Low Ride, Ramp, View