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Telecom Conglomerate AT&T Q1 Earnings Expected To Get DirecTV Boost

Telecom conglomerate AT&T ’s ( T ) first-quarter EPS is expected to rise 10%, with revenue up 24%, boosted by its acquisition of satellite broadcaster DirecTV last July. AT&T is slated to release earnings after the market close on Tuesday. Analysts expect that like Verizon Communications ( VZ ), which on Thursday reported Q1 revenue below views, AT&T’s results will be affected by fewer upgrades to new mobile phones. That trend improves wireless profit margins but lowers equipment revenue. Excluding AOL, acquired last June, Verizon said its Q1 revenue fell 1.5%, as wireless revenue fell 1.4% to $22 billion. “With installment payment plans becoming the industry norm, nearly 70% of AT&T smartphone subscribers are on unsubsidized plans,” said Jim Breen, an analyst at William Blair, in a research report Monday. “Customers are increasingly waiting longer to upgrade their phones. “This has a negative impact on revenue because AT&T records the entire value of handsets as revenue at the point of sale. We believe that AT&T’s wireless service revenue will be pressured throughout 2016 as more customers are migrated to new (installment payment) plans.” Analysts are looking for an update on AT&T’s success in selling bundles of wireless and video services to current DirecTV subscribers as well as to new customers. Another earnings call topic could be operating synergies with DirecTV. AT&T has been renegotiating programming contracts, lowering per-subscriber costs. DirecTV added 60,000 U.S. subscribers in Q1 2015. That quarter, AT&T added 331,000 postpaid wireless subscribers that are billed monthly, including tablet users, but lost 256,000 postpaid phone lines. AT&T has lost  postpaid phone subscribers for five straight quarters amid aggressive promotions by T-Mobile US ( TMUS ) and Sprint ( S ). In Q1, analysts estimate revenue of $40.48 billion, up 24% from the year-earlier period. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters estimate earnings per share of 69 cents, up 10%. Image provided by Shutterstock .

Verizon Revenue Miss Puts Advertising Push, Regulation In Spotlight

Verizon Communications ( VZ ) early Thursday reported Q1 revenue that missed Wall Street views, putting its recent acquisition spree — and its strategy to pursue growth from mobile video and advertising — in the spotlight on its earnings call. Verizon stock was down nearly 4% in afternoon trading Thursday, after the phone company reported EPS in line with analyst consensus estimates but revenue that missed views. High-dividend-paying Verizon and AT&T ( T ) were among top-performing large-cap stocks in Q1, but both have fallen in April. Verizon provided no update on its interest in acquiring struggling Web company  Yahoo ( YHOO ). Verizon said that AOL, which it acquired last June for $4.4 billion, had its best March quarter in five years; but Verizon did not break out the digital media company’s results. Nor did Verizon provide subscriber or other data for its ad-supported Go90 mobile video service, launched in late September. CFO Fran Shammo, on Verizon’s earnings conference call with analysts, defended Verizon’s acquisitions and investments in digital media firms that cater to young adults and teenagers. Verizon is turning to advertising as the next leg of wireless revenue growth, as growth from wireless data products slows amid fierce competition with AT&T, T-Mobile US ( TMUS ) and Sprint ( S ), says Craig Moffett, an analyst at MoffettNathanson. Shammo says that Verizon will provide more transparency later in 2016 on how its push into digital media is progressing. “On AOL performance, I think I’m not going to get into a lot of details on AOL, but they’ve had the best quarter in revenue in the last five years,” Shammo said. “We will, as I said before, open the box at some point in time to give you more visibility to this, and I continue to say that that will be midyear to maybe third quarter of this year where we’ll start to produce some numbers around some of these more specific platforms.” The CFO said that he expects more operating synergy between AOL and the Go90 service. Will Regulatory Moves Hurt Verizon’s Ad Ambitions? Along with AOL’s ad platform last year, Verizon acquired online brands such as Huffington Post, TechCrunch and Engadget. Verizon also snapped up ad firm Millennial Media for a reported $250 million. Verizon recently bought a 24.5% stake in DreamWorks Animation ’s ( DWA ) AwesomenessTV, a digital network for teenagers and young adults. Verizon also teamed with Hearst to acquire video website Complex Media, while Verizon-AOL acquired virtual reality studio RYOT for a reported $10 million to $15 million. Those deals followed Verizon’s 2014 acquisition of Intel ’s ( INTC ) Internet video business OnCue. In 2013, it also purchased EdgeCast Networks, a content delivery network. Amid the acquisition spree, some analysts worry about regulatory moves that could hinder Verizon’s ability to increase ad revenue.  Verizon aims to use wireless customer location data to support its advertising business, analysts say. The Federal Communications Commission in March proposed a rule that would require mobile and fixed Internet service providers to get customer consent to collect data for targeted advertising. Under the privacy rules, ISPs would need to tell consumers what information they are collecting, how they are using it and when they will share it. “Privacy and security has always been a priority for Verizon,” said Shammo. “The issue that we have right now is that the FCC’s proposed rules would apply to broadband (service) providers but not to companies like ( Alphabet ’s ( GOOGL )) Google or Facebook ( FB ). “If we’re going to have rules, we need to make sure we don’t single out certain industries. That’s something our legal department continues to work with the FCC on.” Verizon’s buyout of Vodafone Group ’s ( VOD ) 45% stake in Verizon Wireless for $130 billion in 2014 gave it more flexibility to use cash for acquisitions and pursue a new strategic direction.  Verizon had $104 billion in net debt as of March 31, down slightly from $109 billion in Q1 2015. On April 1, Verizon closed a deal to sell wireline assets in California, Florida and Texas to Frontier Communications ( FTR ) for $10.5 billion. The deal could lower Verizon’s debt, unless it acquires part or all of Yahoo. Verizon on Thursday reiterated guidance for flat full-year adjusted earnings. Verizon said that the strike of 39,000 wireline workers, which began April 13, could pressure current-quarter profit. Verizon said that its Q1 profit rose 4% to $1.06 from the year-earlier period, with revenue rising less than 1% to $32.17 billion. Analysts had modeled revenue of $32.46 billion. Excluding AOL, acquired in June 2015, Verizon said that its Q1 revenue fell 1.5%. Wireless revenue fell 1.4% to $22 billion. Wireless revenue from IoT (Internet of Things) products, mainly Web-connected cars, rose 25% to $195 million, Verizon said.

Goldman Sachs Calls 5G Winners: Verizon, Cisco, Intel, Broadcom

Verizon Communications ( VZ ) and AT&T ( T ) could shake up the U.S. residential broadband market by 2020 by deploying 5G wireless services to homes, challenging cable TV firms Comcast ( CMCSA ) and Charter Communications ( CHTR ), says Goldman Sachs. While 5G is expected to provide much faster data speeds, another market opportunity for AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile US ( TMUS ) will be applications that require always-on, low-data-rate connections, says Goldman Sachs in a new research report. The apps involve data-gathering from industrial sensors, home appliances and other devices often referred to as part of the Internet of Things. Simona Jankowski, a Goldman Sachs analyst, says that some chipmakers, network gear suppliers and software companies will see an upside in 5G deployment. Jankowski says that Broadcom ( AVGO ), Qualcomm ( QCOM ), Intel ( INTC ), Cisco Systems ( CSCO ), cell tower operator Crown Castle ( CCI ), and bandwidth service provider Zayo Group Holdings ( ZAYO ) could see upside from 5G deployment. “We expect pre-standard 5G commercial deployments to begin in the U.S. in 2017, when AT&T and Verizon plan to be first in the world to roll out fixed wireless 5G broadband to the home, followed by pre-standard 5G mobile networks in Korea in time for the 2018 Olympics,” wrote Jankowski in the report. U.S. regulators are focused on opening up high-frequency airwaves , also called millimeter wave spectrum, for 5G services. “Europe led the 3G transition, with industry giants such as Ericsson ( ERIC ) and Nokia ( NOK ) leading the way,” said Jankowski. “With 4G, the baton passed to the U.S., driven by a new group of industry leaders such as Qualcomm and Apple ( AAPL ). With China, Korea and Japan targeting 5G rollouts on par with or ahead of their Western counterparts, it bears watching whether the wireless industry’s center of gravity shifts once again (to Asia).” The Goldman Sachs analyst says that 5G also could have upside for Cisco, Intel, Zayo and Crown Castle. “We view Cisco’s market leading position in IoT as a strategic differentiator, given that 5G will likely be closely coupled with IoT,”  Jankowski added. “We expect Intel’s server and networking business to benefit from increased data traffic and greater demand for compute-intensive data analytics. “As the largest operator of small cell networks in the U.S. and one of the largest pure-play providers of dark fiber in large metros respectively, Crown Castle and Zayo look well positioned for this long-term investment cycle.”