Tag Archives: time

Dual ETF Momentum March Update

Scott’s Investments provides a free “Dual ETF Momentum” spreadsheet which was originally created in February 2013. The strategy was inspired by a paper written by Gary Antonacci and available on Optimal Momentum. Antonacci’s book, Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk , also details Dual Momentum as a total portfolio strategy. My Dual ETF Momentum spreadsheet is available here and the objective is to track four pairs of ETFs and provide an “Invested” signal for the ETF in each pair with the highest relative momentum. Invested signals also require positive absolute momentum, hence the term “Dual Momentum”. Relative momentum is gauged by the 12 month total returns of each ETF. The 12 month total returns of each ETF is also compared to a short-term Treasury ETF (a “cash” filter) in the form of the iShares Barclays 1-3 Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: SHY ). In order to have an “Invested” signal the ETF with the highest relative strength must also have 12-month total returns greater than the 12-month total returns of SHY. This is the absolute momentum filter which is detailed in depth by Antonacci, and has historically helped increase risk-adjusted returns. An “average” return signal for each ETF is also available on the spreadsheet. The concept is the same as the 12-month relative momentum. However, the “average” return signal uses the average of the past 3, 6, and 12 (“3/6/12″) month total returns for each ETF. The “invested” signal is based on the ETF with the highest relative momentum for the past 3, 6 and 12 months. The ETF with the highest average relative strength must also have an average 3/6/12 total returns greater than the 3/6/12 total returns of the cash ETF. Portfolio123 was used to test a similar strategy using the same portfolios and combined momentum score (“3/6/12″). The test results were posted in the 2013 Year in Review and the January 2015 Update . Below are the four portfolios along with current signals: Return Data Provided by Finviz Click to enlarge As an added bonus, the spreadsheet also has four additional sheets using a dual momentum strategy with broker specific commission-free ETFs for TD Ameritrade, Charles Schwab, Fidelity, and Vanguard. It is important to note that each broker may have additional trade restrictions and the terms of their commission-free ETFs could change in the future. Disclosures: None

The Fox And The Hedgehog

“The fox knows many things while the hedgehog knows one big thing.” Click to enlarge Photo: Jeremy P. Gray The Greek poet Archilocus noticed this almost 3,000 years ago. We often see two different types of people. Some people go everywhere and study everything – pursuing contradictory ideas. They’re eclectic, diffused, and omnivorous. On the other side are souls who pursue a singular, unitary vision, an all-embracing organizing principle that gives the world coherence. We see this all around us. In literature, Dante was a hedgehog: he wanted to give the world a great poem about heaven and hell. Shakespeare, on the other hand, was a fox. He wrote plays about everything and everybody. In history, George Washington was a hedgehog – with the simple idea of American greatness – while Thomas Jefferson was a fox. And in modern life, outstanding business leaders are hedgehogs: think of Steve Jobs with his focus on design and functionality. And superior investors are often foxes: Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, John Templeton. Both approaches are necessary. In business, a company needs a singular vision to cut through the clutter and make the main thing the main thing. It’s too easy to get distracted by the crisis of the day and never spend time or energy on what’s crucial. Hedgehogs get things done and keep their teams focused. But with investing, foxes rule. A portfolio needs to be diversified, limiting its exposure to any single area – reducing risk – while spreading its assets among an array of industries that generate new products and ideas – improving return. Investors need to be fox-like and flexible. And they have to be interested in everything, from genomic sequencing to quantum computing to chain-store sales to bitcoins and block chains. Investors should leave no stone unturned when searching for value. Foxes and hedgehogs each have an important role to play. A lot of times, they end up married to each other. Which one are you?

Why Equity Outperforms Credit

In my new paper on asset allocation I go into quite a bit of detail about why certain asset classes generate the returns they do. Understanding this is useful when thinking in a macro sense and trying to gauge why financial assets perform in certain ways in both the short-term and the long-term. It’s important to understand the fundamental drivers of these returns in order to avoid falling into the trap that these assets generate returns due to the way they’re traded in the markets. One of the more common misconceptions I see in the financial space is that credit traders are smarter than equity traders. This is usually presented with charts showing how credit “leads” equity performance or something like that. One of the more egregious offenders of this is a chart that has been going around in the last few days from Jeffrey Gundlach’s presentation showing credit relative to equity: One might look at this and conclude that these lines should necessarily converge at some point. As if the credit markets know something that the equity markets don’t. This is usually bandied about by bond traders who are convinced that stock traders are a bunch of dopes.¹ But this is silly when you think of things in aggregates because, in the long-run, the credit markets generate whatever the return is on the instruments that have been issued and not because bond traders are smarter or dumber than other people.² For instance, XYZ Corporate Bond paying 10% per year for 10 years doesn’t generate 10% for 10 years because bond traders are smart or stupid. It generates a 10% annualized return because the issuing entity pays that amount of income over the life of the bond. In fact, the more traders trade this bond the lower their real, real return will be. Trying to be overly clever about trading the bond, in the aggregate, only reduces the average return earned by its holders as taxes and fees chew into that 10% return. The “bond traders are smarter than stock traders” myth is hardly the most egregious myth at work here though. The bigger myth is the idea that equity must necessarily converge with credit over time. For instance, let’s change the time frame on our chart for a bit better perspective: If you’d bought into this notion that credit and equity converge starting in 1985 you would still be waiting for this great convergence. The reason for this is quite fundamental though. Corporate bonds only give owners access to a fixed rate of income expense paid by the issuing entity. Common stock, however, gives the owner access to the full potential profit in the long-term. If we think of common stock as a bond then common stock has essentially paid a 12% average annual coupon over the last 30 years while high yield bonds have only paid about a 8% coupon. In the most basic sense, credit and equity are different types of legal instruments giving the owner access to different potential streams of income. Equity, being the higher risk form of financing, will tend to reward its owners with higher returns over long periods of time. Why equity outperforms credit is hotly debated, but it makes sense that equity outperforms because the return on financing via equity must be higher than the potential return an investor will earn on otherwise safe assets. That is, if I am an entrepreneur who can earn 5% from a low risk bond it does not make sense for me to invest my capital in an instrument or entity that might not generate a greater return. In this sense, equity generates greater returns than credit because it’s not worth the extra risk to issue equity if the alternative is a relatively safe form of credit. Of course, it doesn’t always play out like this in the short-term, but if you think of equity as a sufficiently long-term instrument then it will tend to be true over the long-term because it’s the only rational reason for equity to be issued in the first place.³ ¹ – As an advocate of diversified indexing I can rightly be included as a “dope” about both asset classes. ² – This return could actually be lower due to defaults, callability, etc. ³ – “Long-term” in this instance has been calculated as at least a 25 year duration for equity. This is a sufficiently long period during which we should expect to see equity consistently earn a risk premium over credit.