Did Xilinx’s 2021 Forecast Undercut Intel’s $17 Billion Altera Buy?
Broadly, Xilinx ‘s ( XLNX ) analyst day Monday was an acknowledgement that the field programmable gate array (FPGA) industry will grow less than 10% in the long term, which could hurt the $16.7 billion bet placed last year by No. 1 chipmaker Intel ( INTC ) on FPGA-maker Altera, a William Blair analyst said Tuesday. Late Monday, stand-alone FPGA maker Xilinx reiterated its fiscal 2017 guidance for growth of 4%-8% for sales and 7%-9% for operational expenses. Through 2021, Xilinx expects $750 million in incremental opportunity, but that only represents a 6% compound annual growth rate. FPGAs are chips which customers can program “in the field,” after manufacture, according to their needs. The overall tone Monday was positive “but lacked conviction,” William Blair analyst Anil Doradla wrote Tuesday in a research report. Commentary regarding Xilinx’s bread-and-butter wireless and wireline segments was limited, leading Doradla to say demand “continues to be muted.” “We believe the company is working hard to diversify away from its traditional markets as the company’s core markets continue to face structural shifts and increasingly pose headwinds to the company,” he wrote. Asian product makers are unlikely to pay premium dollars for Xilinx’s high-end FPGAs, and the company’s aerospace and defense spending opportunities are highly exposed to volatile government funding, Doradla wrote. But he kept his outperform rating on Xilinx stock. Xilinx’s commentary Monday centered on growth opportunities within cloud computing, embedded vision, industrial Internet of Things (IoT) and 5G markets. There, Xilinx faces FPGA competition from Intel/Altera and an IoT rivalry with Nvidia ( NVDA ) graphics chips. In morning trading on the stock market today , Xilinx stock nudged up 1%, above 45. Shares have climbed incrementally on seven of the past eight trading days. But Tuesday’s rise underperformed IBD’s 41-company Electronic Semiconductor-Fabless industry group, which was up more than 2% Tuesday morning. Intel stock was up 2.5%, near 31. Xilinx Viewed As Possible Takeover Target Xilinx’s fiscal 2017 investments could lead to greater market share gains against Intel/Altera, Rosenblatt analyst Kinngai Chan wrote in a report. Xilinx sees its 28-nanometer and 20-nm market share at 65% and 80%, respectively. And Xilinx forecasts a one-year lead on Altera in the 16-nm market. This refers to the width of the circuitry etching in chips, so the smaller the manufacturing capability, the more electronics that in theory can go onto a chip. The investments should lead to “robust” growth for patient investors in 2021, MKM analyst Ian Ing says. The competitive landscape vs. Intel looks “benign,” and Xilinx’s uniquely re-configurable chips are ideal for data center acceleration, he wrote in a report. But “we do not foresee Xilinx’s investment time frames shortening from the four-five years from initial investments to material revenues,” he wrote. “Specialty FPGA chips are unique, given that they must go through two complete design and development cycles before volume.” That could drive off potential investors, he wrote, reiterating his belief that Xilinx could benefit from an acquisition by Apple ( AAPL ) suppliers such as Qualcomm ( QCOM ) or Broadcom ( AVGO ). William Blair’s Doradla noted as much — Xilinx remains the singular merchant player in the FPGA market, he said. Ing kept his neutral rating and 45 price target on Xilinx stock.