ETFs Driving Big Gains For Oil Shorts
Summary Money moving in and out of long and short oil ETFs, as low oil price visibility creates more uncertainty. Retail investors should focus on only holding for a very limited time period if they go short. There is nothing to suggest oil prices can rise to sustainable levels in the near future. Traders with a high tolerance for leveraged risk have been making a killing by shorting oil in 2015, led by a number of ETFs that have been, in some cases, up well over 200 percent on the year. There has been a lot more volatility than usual in these types of instruments, as headlines contradicting one another on the movement of the price of oil have money moving in an out of ETFs catering to short and long outlooks for oil. Some large players have been short oil all year, but for the retail investor, it would be wise to take a position in these ETFs for a very short period of time. Some ETFs even suggest and encourage that to their investors, saying in many cases they’re built to hold a position for only one day. All the volatility and inflows and outflows reinforce the fact no one really knows where the price of oil will go, with some like Goldman Sachs saying it could plunge to as low as $20 per barrel, and OPEC recently saying it’s looking at it rebounding to $80 per barrel. In the case of OPEC, that’s primarily because it believes a decrease in American production will begin to offset excess inventory, and start to drive up prices. That is based upon its assessment it has beaten down a lot of the tight or shale oil drillers, which it believes will be a sustainable event. I disagree with that because of the plethora of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells, which can quickly and inexpensively be brought online in response to an increase in the price of oil. The truth is, as the market is showing, it could go either way. ETF oil shorting products Before getting into a couple of products and some interesting facts about their performance and why money has been changing hands, it’s worth looking at a couple of elements related to these types of ETFs. As already mentioned, most if not all retail investors should be thinking very limited holding periods for ETFs that short oil. They are extremely volatile, and can move up or down very quickly. If using leverage to make the trade, when including daily rebalancing, the short term movement can be very different than what is expected of the long-term performance data of the ETF or ETN. At this time risk/reward is worth the plunge for those that have some spare capital and a high tolerance for risk. There has to be the belief the price of oil will continue to go down to enter this play. I’m not in this particular play at this time, but I’ve done it with other commodities, and there is a lot of money to be made if you’re right in your assessment of the market. That said, leverage is becoming more of a risk as things get murkier, as conflicting outlooks suggest the underlying catalysts for either direction are no longer as sure – at least in the mind of traders – as they were earlier in the year. That’s one of the major reasons, even as oil has remained under pressure, a lot of money has been taken off the table. VelocityShares 3x Inverse Crude Oil ETN (NYSEARCA: DWTI ) Since DWTI has been one of the top performers in the sector in 2015, we’ll take a look at it first. DWTI offers 3x or 300% exposure to how the S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index ER performs on a daily basis. It does have a fairly high annual fee of 1.35 percent. Since this and others are so volatile, I’m not going to even attempt to look at how much it’s up for the year. It changes significantly in a very short period of time, as you can see in the chart below. Its prospectus states it’s “suitable” to be held by most investors for one day. This is a short-term play where it simply doesn’t matter. Again, larger investors can hold longer if they believe the trend will remain down, but now that the price of oil has fallen so much over the last year, leveraged players are under increasing risk if things surprisingly and abruptly turn around. Daily average volume is a solid 1.8 million shares, but as with its share price, its asset base can be very volatile. (click to enlarge) source: YahooFinance PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short ETN (NYSEARCA: SZO ) Since SZO doesn’t use leverage, it is probably one of the safer instruments in this space, if the term ‘safe’ can be applied. It offers inverse exposure to WTI crude, tracking the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index, which covers how well a group of oil futures contracts are performing. Over the last three months it is up about 30 percent, and has an expense ratio of 0.75 percent. It trades far less than DWTI, with a 3-month daily average of approximately 35,000 shares. Not nearly as popular as DWTI, it only has net assets of about $28.59 million. (click to enlarge) source: YahooFinance ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (NYSEARCA: SCO ) My final short to look at is SCO; its goal is to attempt to provide double the daily inverse return of the performance of the Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil Subindex. Over the last three months it has generated a return of about 56 percent. Total expenses amount to 95 basis points. I wanted to highlight SCO because it has been one of the top performing ETFs this year, and yet over $175 million has been removed from assets, according to Bloomberg. That points to growing skittishness over the uncertainty the price of oil is going to go. (click to enlarge) source: YahooFinance The United States Oil ETF (NYSEARCA: USO ) Since USO is a long play on oil it is included to confirm there is a lot of money moving in and out of the long and short ETFs, and not all of it is intuitive. With USO, it has enjoyed near $2.75 billion in new cash investment, even though it has lost over 50 percent of its value so far in the last twelve months. There is no doubt this represents investors believing there is going to be a rebound in oil prices; at least in the short term. This, combined with the outflows from SZO, reiterate concerns over the risk associated with using leverage to short oil, and having no visibility on where the price of oil is going. (click to enlarge) source: YahooFinance Conclusion Shorting oil using ETFs has been very lucrative this year, and my thought is there is a more room to make money for those shorting oil within a limited time frame. For myself, I wouldn’t use leverage any longer because of the low visibility factor concerning oil prices, and I wouldn’t stay in longer than a day. I’m primarily speaking to retail investors here, although until there is more clarity in the short term, larger investors will likely play by similar rules, if they continue to use a shorting strategy in oil at all. My final thought concerning oil is a lot of the headlines are misleading because of the fact OPEC know larger shale producers can put production on hold if the price of oil continues to fall, and if it rebounds, can quickly respond within less than a month with its DUC wells. So the idea it can shut down a competitor like it has in the past, in my opinion, is a misguided one. Shale oil isn’t Russian oil or other types of oil that may take a lot of time to get back into production once it has been shut down. Companies with shale exposure can simply bide their time and wait until the price of oil moves up, and they can almost immediately start production. OPEC can do nothing to stop the larger shale companies. And even if the smaller capitalized companies go out of business, it doesn’t take away the fact the oil is still there. Larger companies will acquire the assets. OPEC has signaled it will continue to produce oil in order to maintain market share. While that has resulted in U.S. companies cutting back on production, there is so much supply out there, it will take a lot more to provide support for oil prices. There is a message being sent, but OPEC doesn’t have the teeth it had before shale, and going forward it has to deal with the fact that once production is lowered and prices start going up, shale companies will simply ramp up production and the cycle will continue. That means eventually OPEC will have to lower production if oil price are to increase at sustainable levels. With Russia so dependent on its oil for revenue, it’s not going to do so, which means this is a long-term trend that at this time, doesn’t have an answer outside of OPEC losing market share. For that reason these ETFs built to take advantage of low oil prices, will make money for those willing to take the risk and holding for very short periods of time. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.