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Apple, Samsung Need Complex Chips, Antennas To Juggle Airwaves

Apple ( AAPL ), Samsung and other smartphone makers will need more advanced chips and antenna components as wireless service providers combine multiple radio-frequency bands to improve network capacity and data speeds, says a Citigroup report. AT&T ( T ), Verizon Communications ( VZ )and Sprint ( S ) are among the wireless firms turning to “carrier aggregation,” a term for combining two or more frequency bands to provide a single communications channel with more bandwidth. This juggling act requires more complex radio frequency chips, says Citigroup. It forecasts a growing market opportunity for chipmakers Qualcomm ( QCOM ), Broadcom ( AVGO ),  Skyworks Solutions ( SWKS ),   Qorvo ( QRVO ), Murata and others. Wireless firms are using carrier aggregation as mobile video traffic surges.  “Carrier aggregation is like adding more lanes to widen the highway and creating more space for more cars to travel on the highway at the same time,” says the report. While Apple designs its own antennas, there’s still a market opportunity for Amphenol and AAC Technologies to supply China-based smartphone brands, says Citigroup. Apple’s iPhone 6S series supports 23 frequency bands and the number is expected to keep growing in future devices, says Citigroup. Xiaomi’s new Mi 5 supports carrier aggregation to double its data download speeds, says the report. In the U.S., AT&T was the first to move to carrier aggregation for 4G LTE-A network upgrades, followed by Sprint and Verizon, analysts say. “According to Cisco ( CSCO ) (Systems), mobile data traffic is expected to grow more than 50% in the next five years,” said Citigroup. It expects more “world” phones to be built, with the ability to roam on 4G LTE networks as subscribers travel.

Could Intel Undercut Apple Supplier Qualcomm In iPhone 7?

Intel ‘s ( INTC ) dogged mobile pursuit — to the tune of “billions of dollars” lost — will pay off with an Apple ( AAPL ) iPhone 7 modem chip, a Barclays analyst wrote Monday as he downgraded modem rival  Qualcomm ( QCOM ). Radio-frequency systems supplier Qorvo ( QRVO ) wins in the Intel model, scooping rival Skyworks Solutions ( SWKS ), Barclays analyst Blayne Curtis wrote in a research report. But Intel’s Apple iPhone share will likely be a minority, with 10%-20%, as a second source. The No. 1 chipmaker  Intel hasn’t been used in an iPhone since the 2008 3G iteration. Apple last dual-sourced a key component — the processor — in the iPhone 6S, pitting Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ( TSM ) against Samsung. Samsung has since backed off the A10 processor, yielding to Taiwan Semiconductor, analysts say. Midday on the stock market today , Qualcomm stock was down more than 1.5%, while shares of Intel and Apple were little changed. Skyworks stock was up 0.8%, while Qorvo stock was down 0.4%. Figuring on 20% share of the iPhone 7, Intel would add 3 cents earnings per share ex items per quarter vs. a 13-cent Qualcomm decline, Curtis wrote. Curtis downgraded Qualcomm stock to equal weight from sector weight and cut his price target to 50 from 55. “We clearly underestimated Intel’s ability to lose billions of dollars in this pursuit of mobile, but we also thought Qualcomm would make a larger effort to monetize the modem business it still has,” Curtis wrote. Qualcomm likely won’t be able to innovate back to 100% share of the iPhone modem business, Curtis wrote. Its faster modem, the Snapdragon 820, comes with a lower average sales price and higher costs. “If Qualcomm can’t fix that problem, then this would be bad business for both companies unfortunately,” Curtis wrote. On the radio-frequency side, Qorvo wins in the Intel model, gaining 3% share vs. its iPhone 6S offerings, he wrote. In an 80%/20% Qualcomm-Intel split, Qorvo gets a pair of power amplifiers and the envelope tracking chip, undercutting Skyworks. Curtis forecasts Qorvo’s iPhone 7 share to rise 3% to $4.92 vs. $4.80 in the iPhone 6S. He boosted his price target on Qorvo stock to 50 from 46. But even at 50% penetration for Intel, which he calls unlikely, Skyworks still gains share, Curtis wrote. At the 80%/20% split, he expects Skyworks’ iPhone 7 chip content to rise as much as 20% to $6.82 per phone, up from $5.69 in the 6s. Curtis sees Broadcom ‘s ( AVGO ) contribution growing 27% in the iPhone 7 to $8.05 worth of content, vs. $6.35 in iPhone 6S. A three-year supply agreement between Broadcom and Apple will likely leave Qorvo, Skyworks and Japan’s Murata Manufacturing scrambling for share, he wrote.

Macom Leapfrogs Apple-Supplying Chip Rivals With Lasers, Radar

FAA and NOAA demand for weather applications will drive approximately $500 million in additional annual revenue over the upcoming five years for IBD Leaderboard stock  Macom Technology Solutions ( MTSI ), a Needham analyst said Friday following the chipmaker’s “upbeat” analyst day. Macom stock rose 5.8% on the stock market today , to 43.79 — nearing its all-time high of 44.15, achieved Monday — and extended 5.7% from a 41.42 buy point. IBD’s 41-company Electronics-Semiconductor Manufacturing industry group jumped 2.3% Friday, spurred by Macom. Shares of chip rivals Analog Devices ( ADI ),  Qorvo ( QRVO ) and Skyworks Solutions ( SWKS ) — all Apple ( AAPL ) suppliers — rose 1.2%, 2.2% and 3.5%, respectively. Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton reiterated his buy rating and 46 price target on Macom stock. Barclays boosted its price target on Macom stock to 44 from 41 and maintained an overweight rating. Macom Ogles Vast Growth Optical, gallium nitride (GaN) and active antenna radar could each double Macom’s approximately $500 million revenue over the next three to five years, “potentially driving up to $2 billion of annual revenue by 2020,” Bolton wrote in a research report. “While management was clear the team may not bat 1,000 and that timing of specific product ramps was difficult to accurately forecast, management has clearly set an objective to become a much larger company,” he wrote. Macom’s $2.3 billion market cap puts it distantly behind industry leader Intel ( INTC ) and Intel’s $150 billion market cap. Unlike its Apple-supplying rivals, Macom’s chips aren’t focused on consumer products but instead are used in commercial and industrial applications like cellphone base stations, military radar and lasers. Macom also is developing GaN-on-silicon chips, squaring off with privately held Transform, Infineon Technologies and Efficient Power Conversion (EPC). GaN transistors can turn on and off faster than silicon, can withstand a higher voltage and are markedly smaller. Could Gallium Nitride Take On Silicon? Last year, EPC figured out how to make them cheaper, too, EPC CEO Alex Lidow told IBD in February. Lidow used to head up International Rectifier, which Infineon acquired in 2014. Companies like EPC aim to use GaN in electronic components such as transistors. EPC grows a thin layer of gallium nitride on silicon wafers and, like Macom, it uses the chips in cellphone base stations. “GaN is being used in base stations, going up in Google balloons and Facebook ( FB ) drones,” Lidow said. Other applications include a swallowable colonoscopy pill, autonomous cars ( Alphabet ( GOOGL ) and Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) are among the competitors) and wireless charging. Lidow estimates a $370 billion total addressable market — $30 billion in power, $40 billion in analog and $300 billion in digital. Macom is trying to grab some of it. The company has been in talks with smartphone makers Huawei, Nokia ( NOK ) and Ericsson ( ERIC ) for over a year and just recently completed customer validation, Bolton wrote. “If the commercial contract negotiations go well, management believes the company could generate first production revenue for GaN-on-Si (GaN-on-silicon power amplifiers) by year-end 2016,” he wrote. Macom estimates that it can scoop 40%-60% of the base station power amplifier market over the next three to five years. RELATED: 5 Chip Stocks To Watch, Moving Up, With Apple’s Big Event March 21