December Update – ETFReplay.com Portfolio
The ETFReplay.com Portfolio holdings have been updated for December 2015. I previously detailed here and here how an investor can use ETFReplay.com to screen for best performing ETFs based on momentum and volatility. The portfolio begins with a static basket of 14 ETFs. These 14 ETFs are ranked by 6-month total returns (weighted 40%), 3-month total returns (weighted 30%), and 3-month price volatility (weighted 30%). The top 4 are purchased at the beginning of each month. When a holding drops out of the top 5 ETFs, it will be sold and replaced with the next highest ranked ETF. The 14 ETFs are listed below: Symbol Name RWX SPDR DJ International Real Estate PCY PowerShares Emerging Mkts Bond WIP SPDR Int’l Govt Infl-Protect Bond EFA iShares MSCI EAFE HYG iShares iBoxx High-Yield Corp Bond EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets LQD iShares iBoxx Invest Grade Bond VNQ Vanguard MSCI U.S. REIT TIP iShares Barclays TIPS VTI Vanguard MSCI Total U.S. Stock Market DBC PowerShares DB Commodity Index GLD SPDR Gold Shares TLT iShares Barclays Long-Term Trsry SHY iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasry Bnd Fd In addition, ETFs must be ranked above the cash-like ETF (NYSEARCA: SHY ) in order to be included in the portfolio, similar to the absolute momentum strategy I profiled here . This modification could help reduce drawdowns during periods of high volatility and/or negative market conditions (see 2008-2009), but it could also reduce total returns by allocating to cash in lieu of an asset class. The cash filter had been in effect since July 2015, but this month four new positions will be added. The top 5 ranked ETFs based on the 6/3/3 system as of 11/30/15 are below: 6mo/3mo/3mo PCY PowerShares Emerging Mkts Bond VNQ Vanguard MSCI U.S. REIT LQD iShares iBoxx Invest Grade Bond TLT iShares Barclays Long-Term Trsry SHY Barclays Low Duration Treasury (2-yr) Thus, the portfolio will purchase PCY, VNQ, LQD, and TLT. In 2014, I introduced a pure momentum system, which ranks the same basket of 14 ETFs based solely on 6-month price momentum. There is no cash filter in the pure momentum system, volatility ranking, or requirement to limit turnover – the top 4 ETFs based on price momentum are purchased each month. The portfolio and rankings are posted on the same spreadsheet as the 6/3/3 strategy. The top 4 six-month momentum ETFs are below: 6-month Momentum TLT iShares Barclays Long-Term Trsry VNQ Vanguard MSCI U.S. REIT PCY PowerShares Emerging Mkts Bond LQD iShares iBoxx Invest Grade Bond This month SHY will be sold and the proceeds used to purchase LQD. The updated holdings for the pure momentum portfolio is below: Position Purchase Price Purchase Date Percentage Gain/Loss Excluding Dividends PCY 27.65 8/31/2015 0.94% LQD 115.91 11/30/2015 0.00% VNQ 79.89 10/30/2015 -0.63% TLT 122.74 10/30/2015 -1.05% Disclosure: None