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Does Cotton Correlate To Oil?

Summary We compared the top oil and cotton ETFs; BAL and USO. Updated on global supply and demand. Events that could influence the short-term price of cotton. In this article on cotton we are going to focus on oil prices vs. cotton prices. Polyester is a competitor of cotton and lower oil prices allow for lower polyester prices. How much does cotton correlate to oil prices? That is a hard question to answer, especially given the large swings cotton has seen over the past decade. These swings skew correlation data and are caused by other events, namely China’s build out of cotton reserves in 2011. What I will seek to do is remove those years from the data and see if there is a correlation or not. For purposes of correlation we will take a look at January 2012 to present. Today we will focus our discussion around the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Cotton Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSEARCA: BAL ). BAL correlates perfectly to the price of cotton. For more information on BAL and its perfect correlation to the sub index in which it tracks, please view this article . With reasonable fees and proper tracking it is your best vehicle to use when trading cotton. Below is a table comparing BAL to the United States Oil ETF, LP (NYSEARCA: USO ): (click to enlarge) Chart obtained from buyupside.com An even more interesting take on the data is when you compare the two ETFs side by side in a single chart. Notice the large drop in oil prices beginning in July of 2014. Despite the continuing plunge in oil prices, cotton fared well over the last year. The following table from iPath provides other correlations to BAL. (click to enlarge) The results show that cotton correlates to the price of oil more than any other index. There are many variances and the correlation is far from perfect, but significant enough to point out. The Outlook for Cotton In previous articles we reviewed the 2015 outlook for cotton ( see here ). Last month we took a look at how the flooding in Texas was providing temporary price support to cotton ( see here ). I believe the flooding in Texas only delayed planting and shouldn’t cause any substantial decrease in supply. Pricing did respond to this event but has since trended back down. Last week the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) raised their midpoint average price received to 62 cents per pound, with a high of 70 cents and a low of 58 cents respectively. Now this does not provide much of an opportunity for investor as cotton is currently trading at around 65 cents per pound. Global Factors The global supply and demand estimates still indicate lower consumption and higher ending inventory (stocks). China has led the drop in consumption due to strong competition from polyester amid the low oil prices we talked about above. China continues to be a dominate force behind cotton prices. They have the world’s largest inventory of cotton and are the largest consumer followed by India. Both of these countries export the majority of cotton they consume after manufacturing it into various clothing and discretionary items. The global economy, especially that of the United States and other consumer nations, should remain on the watch list of any cotton investor. Consumption aids in the demand for cotton. Production (click to enlarge) Table retrieved from the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture Farmers around the world continue to choose more profitable crops over cotton, especially here in the United States. I predicted this in my 2015 outlook for cotton. It really is a no brainer if you think about it. If you have multiple businesses to choose from, you would pick the one you think would be the most successful; the same thing farmers do. Conclusion I would say the biggest catalyst for cotton in the short-term would be a rebound in oil prices. Other possible events include natural disasters such as a hurricane hitting Texas. On simply a supply and demand perspective current market conditions look slightly weak. I look forward to continuing coverage on BAL and will put together a 2016 outlook within the next several months. If anything changes you can expect an update about it here on Seeking Alpha. I am assigning a neutral rating on BAL going forward and I do not see any reasons, other than those mentioned about, to recommend it as a buy at this time. Going into 2016 I see a slight trend upward as farmers balance stocks and hopefully global consumption picks up. Thank you for reading and I wish you a profitable rest of 2015. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Comparing 2 Monthly Eaton Vance Income Closed End Funds EOS And EOI

Summary EOI has a steady monthly income ($0.0864) of 7.8%. EOS has a steady monthly income ($0.0875) of 7.6%. Total return for both funds beat the DOW average over the last 30-month test period. EOS Fund is higher than 30% in Tech companies. Moderate downside protection and income from covered call writing. This article compares the Eaton Vance Enhanced Equity Income Fund II (NYSE: EOS ) and the Eaton Vance Enhanced Equity Income Fund (NYSE: EOI ), for steady monthly income. The differences between these two funds and how each fund has its place in the investment world, will be shown by looking at total return, company allocation, the use of covered calls and the distribution break down of each fund. Both funds use covered calls on a different group of companies to smooth out some of the volatility of the market. The EOI fund and EOS fund both invest in large Cap and Mid Cap companies and would be a good addition to a portfolio needing more diversification in this category. The big difference between them is that EOS tries to model the Russell 1000 and EOI tries to model the S&P 500. Both of these funds would be good for a tax deferred account because of the large amount of long term and short term capital gain in the distribution amounts. If you need a similar fund for a taxable account please see my articles on the Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Opportunities Fund (NYSE: ETV ). Yearly Income percentage and Total Return Being in retirement, my goal is to have a steady monthly income, without the swings of dividends that are paid on a quarterly or yearly basis. The EOI fund distribution of 7.8% ($0.0864/Month) return in today’s low interest rate environment is fantastic. This distribution is slightly higher than the EOS yearly distribution of 7.5% ($0.0875/Month). I calculated the total return of EOS and EOI over a two-year plus six-month period starting with January 1, 2013 till July 2015 YTD, 30 months in total. I chose this time frame since it included the great year of 2013, the moderate year of 2014 and the moderate year of 2015 YTD. EOS outperformed the DOW average by over 18%. For the 30-month period, the DOW total return was 37.52% and EOS beat it at 56.13%. EOI total return was 46.18%, beating the DOW total return by 8.66%. Fund Symbol Total Return For last 30 months Yearly Distribution Difference from DOW Baseline Difference EOI 46.18% 7.8% 8.66 EOS 56.13% 7.5% 18.61 DOW Baseline 37.52% —— Company Allocation The Eaton Vance website gives a full list of the companies and percentage of each in the fund portfolios for the latest quarter. The table below gives the top ten companies for each fund and their percentage in their individual portfolios. Using price chart data, I calculated the total return of the EOI top 10 companies out of 61 that the fund owns. Seven outperformed against the DOW average in total return over the 30-month test period and three missed the total return baseline of 37.52%, Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM ) at 14.82%, General Electric (NYSE: GE ) at 36.9% and Exxon (NYSE: XOM ) at 4.56%. Similarly for EOS, all ten of the companies beat the DOW baseline total return. The total percentage of the portfolio for the top ten companies of each fund is shown at the bottom of the table. EOS Company Percentage In Portfolio EOI Company Percentage In Portfolio Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) 6.60% Apple 4.63% Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG ) 5.29% Google Inc. 4.08% Facebook (NASDAQ: FB ) 3.18% JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM ) 2.69% Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN ) 3.01% Exxon Mobil Corp 2.51% Visa (NYSE: V ) 2.74% Visa 2.36% Biogen Inc (NASDAQ: BIIB ) 2.70% General Electric Co. 2.36% Celgene (NASDAQ: CELG ) 2.69% Qualcomm Inc. 2.31% Medtronic PLC (NYSE: MDT ) 2.45% Amazon 2.27% Priceline Group Inc. (NASDAQ: PCLN ) 2.14% Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS ) 2.26% Walt Disney 2.13% Medtronic PLC 2.14% Total 32.93% Total 27.61% Source: Eaton Vance EOI pretty much follows its S&P 500 index while EOS is a bit heavy in tech compared to its Russell 1000 index at 31.77% of the portfolio Covered Calls Both funds sell covered calls for income and downside protection, but there is a difference in what they do. EOS sells covered calls against 48% of their individual company positions with an average duration of 26 days and 6.3% out if the money. EOI sells covered calls against 46% of their individual company positions with an average duration of 24 days and 5.4% out of the money. Covered calls provide both EOS and EOI fund portfolios some downside risk protection and extra income to smooth out the normal market gyrations. The management in using covered calls, has the time to use covered call exit methods, if the market price goes against them. The big difference is that EOS tries to follow the Russell 1000 and EOI tries to follow the S&P 500. For both funds selling covered calls on individual company positions provides a steady income that does well in total return in a strong up market and gives some downside protection in a moderate market. If you want to learn about covered calls, I recommend the books written by Alan Ellman on the subject. Distributions Each month, both funds issue a statement saying which part of the distribution comes from short-term capital gains, long-term capital gains, investment income and return of capital. It is best to have both funds in a tax-deferred account so that you do not have to handle the tax calculations for the different categories of the distribution and most of the income is taxable. The EOS distribution through June 2015 YTD was 7.9% investment income, 0.0% short-term capital gains, 65.0% long-term capital gains and 27.1% return of capital. The EOI distribution through June 2015 YTD was 17.1% investment income, 0.0% short-term capital gains, 60.8% long-term capital gains and 22.1% return of capital. This is typical with short-term and long-term gains being a significant part of the EOS and EOI distributions. The funds do really well in a strong up market and follows the market in an average market. The fund managers advise against drawing any performance conclusions from the distribution breakdown. They do manage the fund payouts to try and keep the monthly payment constant. For a full explanation of return of capital, please refer to the articles written by Douglas Albo (CEFs and Return Of Capital: Is It As Bad As It Sounds). Conclusion EOI does not perform (Total Return) as well as EOS so EOS gets the nod here. Both funds follow the market and provide steady income, with fund price muted both on the upside and down side swings. Both funds are a good income vehicle in a tax-deferred account. they give a high monthly distribution , which is steady and beats the DOW averages over the test period of 30 months. They also provide someone like me, who generally picks his own companies an easy means of buying a diversified portfolio of large Cap and Mid Cap tech companies, without having to research each company in detail. EOS and EOI are a good complement to individual company positions. The Good Business Portfolio has a 5.5% position in EOS because of its better total return and high technology component. This is the only fund in the Good Business Portfolio. Of course this is not a recommendation to buy or sell and you should always do your own research and talk to your financial advisor before any purchase or sale. This is how I manage my IRA retirement account and the opinions on the companies are my own. I am long on EOS, GE, DIS and ETV and do not own or intend to buy any other companies mentioned in the article. Disclosure: I am/we are long EOS, ETV, DIS, GE. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

AMG To Liquidate The AMG FQ Global Alternatives Fund

By DailyAlts Staff On June 26, the AMG Funds I trust filed paperwork with the SEC announcing its plan to liquidate the AMG FQ Global Alternatives Fund (MUTF: MGAAX ), a global tactical allocation fund, on or about July 31. The fund, which launched in 2006, has a one-star rating from Morningstar. Its -5.98% year-to-date returns through June 30 ranked in the bottom 2% of all funds in Morningstar’s Multialternative category. The decision to liquidate was made at a June 25 meeting of the AMG Funds I Board of Trustees. Effective the very next day, the fund stopped accepting most new investments and started selling its portfolio investments. Proceeds from the sales are being held in cash and cash equivalents and will be distributed to shareholders on the liquidation date. The fund sought to outperform the Citigroup 1-month T-bill index, but routinely failed to do so. Since launching on March 30, 2006, the AMG FQ Global Alternatives Fund has dramatically underperformed. In addition to ranking in the bottom 2% of all Multialternative funds in 2015, the fund generated negative annual returns in 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2014; and lagged the category average by 170 basis points in 2012. A $10,000 investment in the AMG FQ Global Alternatives Fund at its inception would have dwindled in value to $8,829.53 as of June 25, 2015, the day the fund’s Board of Trustees decided to liquidate. By comparison, a $10,000 investment in the average fund in Morningstar’s Multialternative category would have grown to $11,408.56 over that same time. As of June 30, the fund’s assets stood at slightly over $15.9 million. Investors with automatic investment plans through IRAs and 401(k)s may still buy shares until the liquidation date. Shareholders who don’t hold their shares in tax-advantaged accounts may have taxable gains or losses upon liquidation. Share this article with a colleague