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State Of Disunion: Safer Haven Investments Diverge From Stocks

The appetite for risk has been changing before our eyes. Large-cap U.S. stocks in the S&P 500 still rocketed mightily. Safer haven assets were every bit as desirable as the Dow and the S&P 500 in 2014. Is that uncommon for a late-stage bull market? Not particularly. On the other hand, the landscape may be changing. The S&P 500 soared 29.6% and 11.4% in 2013 and 2014 respectively, pushing the broad market benchmark to unimaginable heights. Net inflows into U.S. stock funds, including ETFs, also set records. Unfortunately, that is not always a positive sign for the asset class. The increased participation by the world’s investors in U.S. stocks may not be inordinately alarming. What might be far more ominous? The remarkable performance of safer haven assets over “stuck-in-place” stock assets since the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing (QE3) on October 31. Specifically, the 30-year treasury yield has plummeted from roughly 3.0% to 2.4%, sending a proxy like the PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index ETF (NYSEARCA: ZROZ ) up more than 20%. Similarly, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TLT ) has pocketed nearly 14%, while the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD ) has rallied about 10%. The appetite for risk has been changing before our eyes. Remember the success of riskier equities in 2013, as investors ran from treasury bonds and gold? Indeed, 2013 was only one of two negative years for total bond returns across two decades. Equally staggering, gold appeared to many as if it might collapse altogether. The nature of risk shifted in 2014. Large-cap U.S. stocks in the S&P 500 still rocketed mightily. Yet the clear preference of stocks over safer holdings evaporated; treasuries rallied throughout the year, in spite of the near-unanimous sentiment that interest rates would fall. (Note: I am not opposed to tooting my own horn on this one – I recommended pairing large-cap stock ETFs with long duration treasury ETFs like the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA: EDV ) and ZROZ 13 months earlier.) Safer haven assets were every bit as desirable as the Dow and the S&P 500 in 2014. Some of them like TLT and ZROZ were more desirable. At least for a calendar round-trip, the ownership of historically divergent asset classes produced harmony and indivisibility. Is that uncommon for a late-stage bull market? Not particularly. On the other hand, the landscape may be changing. The perceived need for safety has risen appreciably since the Federal Reserve ended its electronic money printing in October. For example, in 2015, each of the 10 components of the FTSE Custom Multi-Asset Stock Hedge Index has gained ground, whereas the S&P 500 has drifted lower. Those component assets include long-maturity treasuries, zero-coupon bonds, munis, inflation-protected securities, German bunds, Japanese government bonds, gold, the Swiss franc, the yen and the dollar. Granted, the European Central Bank (ECB) intention to create $50 billion euros monthly for a year could reward risk-taking in the same manner that the Federal Reserve’s $85 billion per month had. On the flip side, the $600 billion euro figure that is floating on newswires may come off as underwhelming, as the Fed’s QE3 had been open-ended upon its announcement. Moreover, the “stimulus” amount ran beyond the trillion-and-a-half level. Keep in mind, you do not need to run from stock risk if you have a plan to minimize the severe capital depreciation associated with bear markets. My approach in latter stage bull markets involves pairing lower volatility stock ETFs like the iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility ETF (NYSEARCA: USMV ) and the iShares S&P 100 ETF (NYSEARCA: OEF ) with safer haven ETFs like the Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: BLV ) and EDV. If popular stock benchmarks breach 200-day trendlines, I reduce equity exposure and/or employ multi-asset stock hedging by investing in those assets with a history of performing well in moderate-to-severe stock downturns. Click here for Gary’s latest podcast. Disclosure: Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial, Inc, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds, and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial, Inc. or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert web site. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships.

How Do Fidelity’s New Bond Exchange-Traded Funds Stack Up?

A version of this article was published in the November 2014 issue of Morningstar ETFInvesto r. Download a complimentary copy of ETFInvestor here . On Oct. 9, Fidelity launched three active-bond exchange-traded funds: Fidelity Total Bond (NYSEARCA: FBND ) , Fidelity Corporate Bond (NYSEARCA: FCOR ) , and Fidelity Limited Term Bond (NYSEARCA: FLTB ) . The table below shows the lead managers of each fund as well as their mutual fund analogs. All six funds charge 0.45%. Fidelity follows PIMCO in launching active-bond ETFs, inviting comparison between the two. Are these new funds better than existing PIMCO ETFs? Or passive funds? Fidelity Versus PIMCO Fidelity is more known for its equity funds, but Morningstar analyst Sarah Bush writes that its bond team is “among the industry’s best.” PIMCO is synonymous with fixed income, and analyst Eric Jacobson writes that the firm “[boasts] world-class practitioners and intellects across the board.” So investors have two good options. One big difference between the firms is that PIMCO makes big macroeconomic calls, whereas Fidelity’s bond funds won’t. Most Fidelity bond funds keep their durations close to their benchmarks and focus on making security- and sector-level credit bets. As a consequence, some of Fidelity’s bond funds failed to sidestep the subprime crisis and the financial crisis and suffered sharp losses relative to their benchmarks. PIMCO’s funds, however, sailed through relatively unscathed, having avoided subprime exposure. On the other hand, PIMCO suffered sharp losses in 2011 when it incorrectly bet against Treasuries; Fidelity’s bond funds made no such dramatic calls. Historically, PIMCO’s extensive use of factor timing meant that its fund’s patterns of excess returns relative to their benchmarks were less predictable than Fidelity’s bond funds, which tend to do well when credit does well. Fidelity Total Bond Ford O’Neil is lead manager of both FBND and its mutual fund counterpart, Fidelity Total Bond (MUTF: FTBFX ) . Naturally, the ETF itself can’t be assessed with confidence, but we can make reasonable inferences about its prospective behavior by looking at the mutual fund version of the strategy. O’Neil has spent almost 10 years running the mutual fund, so we have a lot of data to work with. Here’s how Bush describes Fidelity Total Bond’s process: This wide-ranging fund has a variety of tools at its disposal. As at other Fidelity bond funds, duration (a measure of interest-rate sensitivity) is kept close to that of the fund’s bogy, the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. Instead, manager O’Neil seeks to beat this benchmark over a three-year period by identifying relatively underpriced sectors of the market and segments of the yield curve, and through individual security selection. This is primarily an investment-grade portfolio–think high-quality corporate bonds, agency mortgages, and Treasuries–livened up with a mix of junk bonds, floating-rate bank loans, and developed- and emerging-markets debt. The fund gets its bank-loan and mortgage exposure from internally run Fidelity “central” funds run by other managers; bank loans are relatively illiquid, so the central-fund approach helps control cash flows, while O’Neil argues that there are significant advantages of scale in the mortgage portfolios. Since O’Neil took over, the fund beat its benchmark by 0.48% annualized as of Sept. 30, 2014. Of course, you can’t own the index. When compared against Vanguard Total Bond Market Index (MUTF: VBMFX ) , O’Neil looks a bit better, extending his edge to 0.61% annualized. However, we care about returns in excess of risk taken. The next chart shows Fidelity Total Bond’s cumulative wealth ratio versus Vanguard Total Bond Market Index. When the line slopes up, Fidelity’s fund is outperforming the Vanguard fund; when it slopes down, it’s underperforming. Total Bond did outperform over O’Neil’s tenure, but at the cost of a nasty drawdown that showed up during the financial crisis. We can get a fuller picture of O’Neil’s record by examining his tenure at Fidelity Intermediate Bond (MUTF: FTHRX ) , which covered July 13, 1998, to Oct. 29, 2013. It is the oldest and longest U.S. bond fund track record of his that we have. The second chart shows cumulative wealth of the fund against its benchmark, the Barclays Intermediate U.S. Government/Credit Index. We see benchmark-matching performance punctuated by a nasty drawdown during the financial crisis. What accounted for these drawdowns? First, O’Neil kept a slug of his fund in an internally managed ultrashort bond portfolio that had substantial exposure to subprime mortgages, which led to the fund’s lagging in late 2007. Second, the fund also had a junk-bond sleeve going into the crisis, but the index excludes them. Despite O’Neil’s mixed record versus his benchmarks, Fidelity Total Bond outpaced most of his category peers, landing in the top 22% for the 10 years ended Sept. 30. The Fidelity Total Bond mutual fund has a Morningstar Analyst Rating of Gold, which indicates Morningstar believes the fund will beat its category peers on a risk-adjusted basis over a full market cycle. There is only one other actively managed ETF of note benchmarked against the Aggregate Index: PIMCO Total Return Active (NYSEARCA: BOND ) , which serves as my default broad bond exposure. The only sensible way to assess investments is through the lens of opportunity cost. Am I giving up space that could be devoted to a better fund if I stick with BOND? I’m about as confident as can be that BOND can beat its benchmark over a full interest-rate or credit cycle, without taking on much more risk. The next chart shows PIMCO Total Return’s cumulative wealth ratio versus the benchmark juxtaposed with Fidelity Total Bond’s cumulative wealth ratio. The different performance patterns reveal the distinct processes driving each fund. PIMCO Total Return is willing to make big macro calls–market-time, in other words–hence its sidestepping much of the carnage of the financial crisis, riding the mortgage-backed securities wave, then getting clobbered in 2011 on its big short Treasury bet. Fidelity Total Bond mostly makes security- and sector-level calls without varying its duration or taking too much risk off the table. The result is the fund that took a beating during the crisis but has steadily earned excess returns as credit exposure has done well. Fidelity Corporate Bond Michael Plage and David Prothro comanage this fund. Although Plage is lead manager of FCOR, Prothro is lead of the mutual fund Fidelity Corporate Bond (MUTF: FCBFX ) . Neither Plage nor Prothro have O’Neil’s long track record. Plage joined Fidelity in 2005 as a fixed-income trader before switching to a portfolio-management role in 2010. Prothro has been with Fidelity as a fixed-income analyst since 1991, but his oldest pure U.S. bond mandate also begins in 2010. Plage and Prothro have done very well with Fidelity Corporate Bond. They’ve beaten their benchmark, the Barclays U.S. Credit Index, by more than 1%. So far it seems as if Plage and Prothro have what it takes. But we haven’t gone through a full credit cycle, so I’m not willing to assign a high degree of confidence that their fund will outperform. There is no other actively managed bond ETF also benchmarked to a similar index or in the corporate-bond category. Fidelity Limited Term Bond FLTB, led by Robert Galusza, begs natural comparisons with the mutual fund Fidelity Limited Term Bond (MUTF: FJRLX ) , also managed by Galusza. The mutual fund’s track record is utterly misleading. A closer look reveals that Fidelity Limited Term Bond until very recently was the Fidelity Advisor Intermediate Bond Fund, which was benchmarked to the Barclays U.S. Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Index. Its lead manager was also O’Neil, who began managing the fund the same day he took over Fidelity Total Bond and ended his tenure on Oct. 29, 2013. Now we have another angle to assess Fidelity Total Bond. Unfortunately, during O’Neil’s tenure, Fidelity Advisor Intermediate Bond underperformed its benchmark with much more volatility. A more relevant mutual fund equivalent for Fidelity Limited Term Bond is Fidelity Short-Term Bond (MUTF: FSBFX ) , which Galusza joined on July 12, 2007. However, Andrew Dudley managed the fund until Feb. 21, 2008. In order to give Galusza the benefit the doubt, I’ll assess his performance the month after Dudley left. The chart shows how he did against the fund’s benchmark, the Barclays U.S. 1-3 Year Government/Credit Bond Index. Like Fidelity Total Bond, Fidelity Short-Term Bond took a big hit during the financial crisis due to its subprime mortgage exposure. Of all three funds, this one is the least appealing from a historical risk/return perspective. It’s also going up against extremely stiff competition in the form of high-yield, low early withdrawal penalty five-year bank CDs that offer 2% yields as of this writing. No ETF offers anywhere near as favorable a risk/reward trade-off. I’ve been consistent in pointing out that low-duration funds are a bad deal, including the two other active ETFs benchmarked to the Barclays U.S. 1-3 Year Government/Credit Bond Index: AdvisorShares Newfleet Multi-Sector Income (NYSEARCA: MINC ) and PIMCO Low Duration Active (NYSEARCA: LDUR ) .

Adaptive Asset Allocation: Which Is Better – Quarterly, Monthly, Or Weekly Trading?

Summary The performance of adaptive asset allocation is sensitive to the look back period, as well as to the frequency of market monitoring. The best performance is obtained by monthly monitoring, which significantly outperforms quarterly or weekly monitoring. For the SPY+TLT pair over the 2004-2014 time interval, the highest CAGRs are as follows: 14.70% for monthly monitoring, 12.93% for quarterly monitoring, and 11.74% for weekly monitoring. The best look back periods are 2 to 7 months, 10 to 20 weeks, and 1 quarter. The relative performance of the adaptive allocation strategy is consistent for ETFs and related mutual funds. We obtained similar effects on (SPY, TLT), (VTI, AGG), (FSTMX, FTBFX), and (VTSMX, VBMFX). In a couple of recent articles , we demonstrated that a very simple and well-diversified portfolio may be made up of two instruments – one representing the total stock market, and the other representing the total bond market. These portfolios are quite robust, and achieve decent returns using simple strategies such as rebalancing and momentum-based adaptive allocation. At the suggestion of some readers, we investigate the sensitivity of the adaptive allocation strategy to the frequency of market monitoring and the duration of the look back period. As in our previous articles, we considered the following four portfolios: one built with the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF ( SPY) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: TLT ) , the second with iShares and Vanguard ETFs, the third with Vanguard mutual funds, and the fourth with Fidelity mutual funds. ETFs portfolio: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF and SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF. ETFs portfolio: iShares Core US Aggregate Bond Market ETF (NYSEARCA: AGG ) and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA: VTI ). Mutual funds portfolio: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (MUTF: VBMFX ) and Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (MUTF: VTSMX ). Mutual funds portfolio: Fidelity Total Bond Market Index Fund (MUTF: FTBFX ) and Fidelity Spartan Total Stock Market Index Fund (MUTF: FSTMX ). For purposes of comparison, we simulate these portfolios from December 2003 to December 2014, a total of eleven years. The time period of the study was selected based on the availability of historical data of the investment instruments; AGG was created in September 2003. The data for the study were downloaded from Yahoo Finance, using the Historical Prices menu for the eight tickers: SPY, TLT, AGG, VTI, VBMFX, VTSTX, FTBFX, FSTMX. We use the weekly and monthly price data from September 2003 to December 2014, adjusted for stock splits and dividend payments. The article has two parts. In the first part, we discuss the effect of the frequency of market monitoring. The second part presents the effect of varying the look back period. Part I: Quarterly, Monthly, and Weekly Market Monitoring The first study was done on the SPY+TLT. We compare the results obtained by monitoring the market quarterly, monthly, or weekly in the following manner. Quarterly monitoring is done at market closing on the last trading day of each quarter. Monthly monitoring is done at market closing on the last trading day of each month. Weekly monitoring is done at market closing on the last trading day of each week. The portfolio is at all times invested 100% in either SPY or TLT. All the funds are invested in the instrument with the highest return over the current look back period. The following look back periods were utilized in our simulations: 1 to 4 quarters for quarterly monitoring; 2 to 20 months for monthly monitoring; 5 to 50 weeks for weekly monitoring. The data below show the best investment results over 11 years, from January 2004 to December 2014. The first line is for quarterly monitoring with a 1-quarter look back period; the second is for monthly monitoring with a 3-month look back period; the third for weekly monitoring with a 13-week look back period. It is apparent that monthly monitoring delivers significantly better results than weekly or quarterly monitoring. Table 1. SPY+TLT quarterly, monthly, and weekly monitoring of portfolios January 2004-December 2014 Total Return% CAGR% Max DD% Number of trades Quarterly 281.1 12.93 -19.59 22 Monthly 347.0 14.70 -17.13 29 Weekly 141.1 11,74 -17.37 60 Part II: The Effect of the Look Back Period The effect of the look back period is presented separately for quarterly, monthly, and weekly monitoring. For quarterly monitoring , the look back period was varied from 1 quarter to 4 quarters. The results obtained for the SPY+TLT portfolio are shown in Table 2. It is apparent that a look back of one quarter is significantly better than any other period. Table 2. SPY+TLT quarterly, look back periods from 1 to 4 quarters January 2004-December 2014 Look back [quarters] Total Return% CAGR% Max DD% Number of trades 1 281.1 12.93 -19.59 22 2 77.2 5.20 -29.80 17 3 77.6 5.21 -31.54 14 4 56.4 4.15 -36.75 12 For monthly monitoring , the look back period was varied from 2 months to 20 months. The first two figures show the scatter of the compound annual growth rate (CAGR). A few observations can be made from analyzing these results: The SPY+TLT portfolio is the most sensitive to a change in the look back period. A look back period between 2 and 4 delivers the highest returns. VTI+AGG, as well as the mutual fund portfolios are little sensitive to changes in the look back period. Still, a look back period in the 2-6 month range delivers higher returns. (click to enlarge) Figure 1. CAGR for monthly monitoring with look back periods from 2 to 20 months. Source: This chart is based on Excel calculations using the adjusted monthly closing share prices of securities. (click to enlarge) Figure 2. CAGR for monthly monitoring with look back periods from 2 to 20 months. Source: This chart is based on Excel calculations using the adjusted monthly closing share prices of securities. (click to enlarge) Figure 3. Maximum drawdown (DD) for monthly monitoring with look back periods from 2 to 20 months. Source: This chart is based on Excel calculations using the adjusted monthly closing share prices of securities. (click to enlarge) Figure 4. Maximum drawdown for monthly monitoring with look back periods from 2 to 20 months. Source: This chart is based on Excel calculations using the adjusted monthly closing share prices of securities. For weekly monitoring , the look back period was varied from 5 weeks to 50 weeks. The first two figures show the scatter of the compound annual growth rate . A few observations can be made from analyzing these results: The SPY+TLT portfolio is the most sensitive to a change in the look back period. A look back period between 10 and 21 weeks delivers the highest returns. VTI+AGG, as well as the mutual fund portfolios are not very sensitive to changes in the look back period. (click to enlarge) Figure 5. CAGR for weekly monitoring with look back periods from 5 to 50 weeks. Source: This chart is based on Excel calculations using the adjusted weekly closing share prices of securities. (click to enlarge) Figure 6. CAGR for weekly monitoring with look back periods from 5 to 50 weeks. Source: This chart is based on Excel calculations using the adjusted weekly closing share prices of securities. (click to enlarge) Figure 7. Maximum drawdown for weekly monitoring with look back periods from 5 to 50 weeks. Source: This chart is based on Excel calculations using the adjusted weekly closing share prices of securities. (click to enlarge) Figure 8. Maximum drawdown for weekly monitoring with look back periods from 5 to 50 weeks. Source: This chart is based on Excel calculations using the adjusted weekly closing share prices of securities. Conclusions The performance of adaptive asset allocation is sensitive to the look back period, as well as to the frequency of market monitoring. The best performance is obtained by monthly monitoring, which significantly outperforms quarterly or weekly monitoring. The optimal look back period varies with the type of assets that make up the portfolio. For the assets considered in this study, the best look back periods are 2 to 7 months, 10 to 20 weeks, and 1 quarter. The author prefers a look back period of 3 months in conjunction with monthly monitoring.