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Hedge Fund Conversations: Dane Capital On Investment Strategy, Finding New Ideas, And More (Video)

SA Author Dane Capital Management discusses investment strategy and finding new ideas with Hedge Fund Conversations. Among topics discussed are semiconductor consolidation, shorting strategies, and informational edges. The interview also goes deep on Dane Capital’s thesis for Lindblad Expeditions. ( Editors’ Note: This interview is republished with the permission of Hedge Fund Conversations . It features an interview with Seeking Alpha Contributor Dane Capital Management, LLC, a.k.a. Eric Gomberg.)

S&P 500 Valuation Dashboard – December Update

Summary 5 key fundamental factors are calculated across sectors. They are compared to historical averages. It results in a value score and a quality score for each sector. This article is part of a monthly series giving a valuation by sector of companies in the S&P 500 index (NYSEARCA: SPY ). I follow some fundamental factors for every sector and compare them to historical averages, so as to create a synthetic dashboard with a Value Score (V-score) and a Quality Score (Q-score). The choice of the valuation ratios has been justified here . The Q-score uses the Return on Equity (see why here ). In this series you can find numbers that may be useful in a top-down approach. There is no individual stock analysis or recommendations. You can refine your research reading articles by industry experts here . Methodology The median value of 4 valuation ratios is calculated for S&P 500 companies in each sector: Price/Earnings (P/E), Forward Price Earning for the current year (Fwd P/E), Price to sales (P/S), Price to free cash flow (P/FCF). It is compared to its own historical average Avg. The difference is measured in percentage (%Hist). For example, %Hist= 10 means that the current median ratio is 10% overpriced relative to its historical average in the sector. The V-score of a sector is the average of %Hist for the 4 factors, multiplied by -1, so that the higher is the better. The Q-score is the difference between the current median ROE (return on equity) and its historical average. Why and how using median values Median values are simpler than capital-weighted averages or aggregate ratios on each sector considered a mega company. They are also better reference data than averages for stock-picking. Each number in the table below is the middle point of a sector data set, which can be used to separate the good elements and the bad ones for the sector and the factor. Median values are also less sensitive to outliers than averages. A note of caution: for ETF investors, the most relevant valuation ratio would be the result of an aggregate calculation, neither a median value nor a capital-weighted average of individual stock factors. Example The next chart shows an example: the median P/E for all S&P 500 companies (updated on the week of publication). (click to enlarge) The latest value is compared to the average of the reference period to calculate %Hist. Sector valuation table on 12/14/2015 The next table reports the median valuation ratios. For example, the P/E column gives the current median value of P/E in each sector. The next “Avg” column gives its average between January 1999 and August 2015, which is my arbitrary reference of fair valuation. The next “%Hist” column is the difference between the historical average and the current value, in percentage. So there are 3 columns relative to P/E, and also 3 for each ratio. The first column “V-score” shows the value score as defined above. V-score P/E Avg %Hist Fwd P/E Avg %Hist P/S Avg %Hist P/FCF Avg %Hist All -18.48 21.15 19.18 10.27 16.6 14.83 11.94 2.16 1.58 36.71 28.41 24.7 15.02 Cons.Disc. -19.48 20.07 18.7 7.33 15.99 14.56 9.82 1.61 1.12 43.75 27.52 23.52 17.01 Cons.Stap. -31.01 25.6 20.48 25.00 19.57 16.27 20.28 2.33 1.54 51.30 50.06 39.28 27.44 Energy -7.36 20.31 17.8 14.10 25.89 14.38 80.04 1.48 1.94 -23.71 18.05 30.59 -40.99 Financials -36.60 18.19 16.16 12.56 14.77 12.38 19.31 2.81 2.03 38.42 21.59 12.26 76.10 Healthcare -6.04 27.92 23.76 17.51 16.3 16.85 -3.26 3.38 2.93 15.36 28.41 30.04 -5.43 Industrials -10.82 18.66 18.75 -0.48 16.15 14.52 11.23 1.47 1.24 18.55 29.25 25.66 13.99 I.T. & Tel. 2.22 24.79 27.16 -8.73 16.47 19.29 -14.62 3.17 2.72 16.54 25.48 26.02 -2.08 Materials -19.35 22.41 19.74 13.53 16.92 14.36 17.83 1.37 1.15 19.13 34.94 27.53 26.92 Utilities -27.66 17.63 15.21 15.91 15.81 13.15 20.23 1.63 1.11 46.85 Energy: P/FCF Avg starts in 2000 – Utilities: P/FCF not taken into account because of frequent outliers in this sector. V-score chart Sector quality table The next table gives a score for each sector relative to its own historical average. Here, only one factor is accounted. Q-score (Diff) Median ROE Avg All -0.50 14.43 14.93 Cons.Disc. 3.99 21.33 17.34 Cons.Stap. -2.86 21.2 24.06 Energy -14.14 0.75 14.89 Financials -2.38 9.93 12.31 Healthcare -4.71 12.89 17.6 Industrials 2.90 19.85 16.95 I.T. & Tel. 1.88 14.99 13.11 Materials 4.85 18.74 13.89 Utilities -2.25 9.1 11.35 Q-score chart Interpretation The S&P 500 looks overpriced by about 18.5% relative to the historical reference period. Since last issue’s statistics (11/10): SPY is down by more than 2.5%. Overpricing has increased by about 1%. Quality is stable globally and for every sector. 4 sectors have improved in valuation: Energy, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples and Industrials. The only attractive sector regarding these metrics is Technology (including Telecom). It looks underpriced and has a median ROE above the historical average. The least overpriced sector among the rest is Healthcare. The most overpriced sector is Financials. For Materials, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary, a quality factor better than the historical average can justify at least a part of the overpricing. If you want to stay informed of my updates on this topic and other articles, click the “Follow” tab at the top of this article. Data: portfolio123

Even After Recent Drop, PGP Is A Sell

PGP trades at a large premium, putting it at risk for a steep decline. When rates rise, high premium and highly leveraged funds will suffer. Friday’s drop is a sign of how risky the fund truly is. The purpose of this article is to evaluate PIMCO Global StocksPLUS & Income Fund (NYSE: PGP ) as an investment option. To do so, I will evaluate the fund’s characteristics, recent performance, and trends within the industry as a whole to attempt to determine if PGP will be a profitable investment going in to 2016. First, a little about PGP. PGP’s stated objective is to seek a total return comprised of current income, current gains, and long-term capital appreciation. The fund attempts to achieve this objective by building a global equity and debt portfolio and investing at least 80% of the fund’s net assets in a combination of securities and instruments that provide exposure to stocks and/or produce income and by utilizing call and put options to generate gains from options premiums and protect against swift market declines. Currently, the fund is trading at $16.91/share, after Friday’s decline of 8.62%. The fund pays a monthly dividend of $.18/share, which translates to an annual yield of 12.77%. While the fund has come under pressure over the past few trading sessions, performance in the past few months has been strong, with the fund up almost 15% in the past three months, excluding dividend payments. Given that performance, and its high yield in this low rate environment, PGP may seem like a sound investment. However, there are a few reasons, which I will outline below, why I would avoid PGP going forward. First, and probably most important, PGP trades at an enormous premium to Net Asset Value (NYSE: NAV ), currently at 56.24%. This in and of itself is a red flag for any fund, as it indicates investors are paying well above the fair market rate for future performance. PGP has been able to maintain this high premium because it has a history of reliability for its dividend payout, which is high, and investors have flocked to PGP and other similar funds to earn this yield while interest rates have remained at record lows. While this strategy may have paid off during that environment, once rates start to rise, investors will shift out of riskier funds and in to safer asset classes that will begin to pay more. Funds that demand a high premium, such as PGP, will be most at risk. This was evident during Friday’s drop, as credit markets were rattled over Third Avenue’s decision to suspend redemptions on one of its credit mutual funds. This decision hit many Pimco funds hard on Friday, but funds that trade at large premiums were hit the hardest. For example, PHK, which also trades at a premium (albeit at only 10%) dropped over 7%, which was similar to PGP’s drop. Meanwhile , PCN, which trades at a 7.62% discount to NAV, dropped only 2.44% and PCI, which trades at an almost 16% discount to NAV , dropped only 1.18%. While this is just a snapshot of one trading day, it demonstrates how funds with high premiums are more sensitive to market swings and are riskier for the initial principle investment. Second, interest rates are likely to increase this week, as 92% of economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal are predicting a December rate hike to be announced during the Fed’s meeting this week. If Yellen announces a hike, and lays out the groundwork for future hikes in 2016, investors may begin to exit riskier funds like PGP, as yield on safer investments, such as Treasury bills, will begin to be higher. Again, due to its large premium, PGP will probably suffer more than most and the drop could be steep. In the past month, as expectations for the first rate increase became more pronounced, PGP has suffered, down about 5% (excluding dividends). With the rate hike becoming more evident, I expect this decline to continue. Third, while PGP has traded at an ultra-high premium for quite some time, historically the fund has traded at NAV, or at a discount. It wasn’t until the depths of the of the financial crisis and the near zero interest rates in 2009 that PGP began to sell at a premium. Investors have irrationally bid up this fund to the point where owning it now sets up the investor for a very quick, steep drop in principle. When rates rise, I expect PGP to return to pre-recession valuations, which would mean a dramatic decrease in share price from where it stands today. Of course, avoiding PGP has risks of its own. The fund has traded at a premium successfully for years, and its high yield, along with capital appreciation, has rewarded investors handsomely. If Yellen announces that the Fed will yet again delay raising rates, or lays out a dovish stance for future increases in 2016, funds like PGP could rally, as that could indicate the low rate environment will be around for longer than anticipated. Additionally, PGP’s yield of almost 13% could be enough to entice investors to stay the course throughout 2016, even with rising rates. While rates rising seems to be an almost certainty, those rates will most likely still be at historically low levels. Investors may decide that the high yield and below investment grade credit sectors that compose PGP could be worth the risk. However, I expect the Fed to follow through with the December rate hike, and lay a groundwork for a few rate hikes in 2016. This albeit slow rate of increases will gradually steer investors out of high-yielding closed-end funds, and PGP should fall quicker than others. Bottom-line: PGP has paid a reliable, high-yield during a period of ultra-low interest rates, rewarding investors with high income during a time when such income was hard to come by. The fund has also performed strongly from its 2009 lows, more than doubling in share price. However, this performance has priced PGP well above NAV, and has shown itself prone to dramatic losses when the market gets rattled, such as on Friday. With volatility expected in the credit markets in the coming months as interest rates are set to rise, the risk-reward of PGP is just not there. While the yield is high, and PGP has proven to pay it reliably, there are other Pimco funds available with similar yields, that won’t expose investors to such a large potential loss in principle. Heading in to the new year, I would caution investors away from PGP at this time.