Tag Archives: seeking-alpha

Lipper U.S. Fund Flows: Large Seasonal Outflows

By Tom Roseen During the fund-flows week ended December 16, 2015, investors became somewhat bipolar ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, while oil prices continued to slide to lows not seen since 2009. OPEC’s report showed the cartel’s oil output had risen to its highest level since 2012, perpetuating the global glut in supplies. Also, new applications for U.S. unemployment benefits jumped to their highest levels in five months. At the beginning of the flows week, investors learned of a meltdown in Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund , a high-yield mutual fund; it began blocking investors from making redemptions, weighing heavily on other high-yield offerings as investors began to wonder if the related selloff might extend into other funds in the group. A two-day turnaround in oil prices and anticipation that the Fed would pull the trigger to raise its short-term lending rate in December pushed stocks higher in the middle of the flows week, with many investors believing conditions for a Santa Claus rally were beginning to take shape for the latter half of December. On Wednesday, December 16, investors appeared to shrug off reported weakness in November’s industrial production numbers and another slump in oil prices and cheered the decision by the Fed to raise its key interest rate for the first time in almost ten years. Also, the commitment to a gradual pace of increases over the future was seen as an attempt to ease investors’ worries about the change in ultra-low interest rates, which have been attributed by many to be a catalyst for the recent multi-year equity rally. Despite some late-week optimism, investors were net redeemers of fund assets (including those of conventional funds and exchange-traded funds [ETFs]), withdrawing a net $39.6 billion for the fund-flows week ended December 16. Investors turned their back on equity funds, fixed income funds, and money market funds, redeeming $13.2 billion, $15.4 billion, and $11.3 billion net, respectively, for the week, but they padded the coffers of municipal bond funds (+$0.3 billion) ahead of tax season. (Keep in mind, however, that year-end distributions can play a factor in the weekly flows calculations, if they fall on a Wednesday, along with the impact of tax selling at year-end. So, some of the big swings we witnessed this past week may be offset next week.) For the tenth week in a row equity ETFs witnessed net inflows, taking in $4.1 billion for the week. Despite initial concerns over the FOMC announcement, authorized participants (APs) were net purchasers of domestic equity ETFs (+$2.8 billion), injecting money into the group for a fifth consecutive week. They also padded – for the fourth week running – the coffers of nondomestic equity ETFs (to the tune of +$1.3 billion). As a result of the wild swings in oil prices and conviction about the Fed interest rate hike during the week, APs turned their attention to some out-of-favor issues, with Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLE ) (+$1.3 billion), iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (NYSEARCA: EFA ) (+$1.1 billion), and iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: IVV ) (+$0.6 billion) attracting the largest amounts of net new money of all individual equity ETFs. At the other end of the spectrum, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) (-$0.8 billion) experienced the largest net redemptions, while WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: DXJ ) (-$0.5 billion) suffered the second largest redemptions for the week.

All I Want In Life Is A Small Unfair Advantage

New business ventures often face the challenge of how to be truly innovative and use that in a way that gives them an advantage in the marketplace. For investors, an unfair advantage can come from a number of sources, including inside information (the legal kind, not the kind that will land you in jail). Don’t settle for the conventional wisdom when it comes to making investment choices. Hank “Ace” Greenberg, former chairman of insurance giant AIG (NYSE: AIG ), once said “All I want in life is a small unfair advantage.” As it turns out, he had one – and it was a whopper. Do you have one? Yes, you do. But you may not be aware of it. “Having the time, willingness, and ability to do original research is a true unfair advantage. Unfortunately, very few individual investors are able to pull it off.” – Jesse Livermore New business ventures often face the challenge of how to be truly innovative and use that in a way that gives them an advantage in the marketplace. In his book Running Lean, Ash Maurya offers a new take on the idea by introducing the concept of a small unfair advantage. A true unfair advantage is one that cannot easily be copied, stolen or bought. Anything that is worth copying will be copied, so how do you establish an advantage? By building something that is difficult or impossible to be copied. For investors, an unfair advantage can come from a number of sources, including inside information (the legal kind, not the kind that will land you in jail). The way to gain access to this kind of information is by networking with people who are experts in the area that you’re interested in. Here’s an example of what I mean. The last time I bought Starbucks’ (NASDAQ: SBUX ) stock was right after I heard my barista talking about how the company was going to make a special contribution to the employee retirement plan. Hmmm… Why would they do that unless they knew they were going to have a very profitable year? That was legal inside information, and my small unfair advantage was that I was able to recognize the significance of what that barista had told me. Comments like this, and other sources of objective, unbiased, and timely information are threads that weave your unfair advantage as an investor. By the time a news story hits the media, it’s too late to profit from that information. The price of the stock has already moved, thanks to the action of other investors who may not be smarter than you, but they are much quicker to act. Here’s another example. A well-connected blogger who specializes in junior gold mining shares often has access to people inside that industry who are more likely to speak the unvarnished truth, instead of repeating the talking points that were prepared for them by the Investor Relations Department. There are other skills you can learn, that are part of your unfair advantage. Take problem solving, for example. If you take the time to write down your thoughts regarding an investment idea, and list the possible solutions, you’re more likely to choose the one that advances your goal in the most cost-effective and meaningful way. A single-minded, uncompromising commitment to following through on your strategic plan is an unfair advantage in and of itself. All institutional investors, and most wealthy individual investors, have a strategic plan in place. But following through on it is another matter. If your plan is well-written, it can save you from making costly mistakes that can ruin an otherwise great year. Your Dream Team is another source of unfair advantage. This is your “inner circle,” your private network of contacts and experts who make up your Brain Trust. Highly successful investors have a small group of advisers who are all specialists in their fields. They understand the value of paying for expert advice because they recognize that they will never have enough time and energy to learn more than an expert about that one particular thing. Critical Thinking is an unfair advantage, because so few people practice it. This is the process of detaching yourself from the emotions of the moment, and examining the facts about the decision at hand. It takes patience and discipline, but it’s not rocket science. It’s simply a clearly defined and well-executed procedure. When you put all these things together, you can see that the common thread is independent thinking. Don’t settle for the conventional wisdom when it comes to making investment choices. Look for unbiased expert opinion, even if that means paying someone to advise you about a specific issue. The essence of your small unfair advantage is that nobody can copy, steal, or buy your investment ideas if you think for yourself.

Low Risk, High Return, A Dream Come True: SPLV

Most active managers fail to beat their indices. Passive management is systematic and delivers expectations over the long term. Stock-picking is lucrative, but time consuming. SPLV facts make it attractive. When it comes to investing in equities in North America, the S&P 500 is one if not the most popular index used as a guideline and benchmark. There are various exchange-traded funds that replicate the composition and the return of the S&P 500. Best known ETFs in this space are: State Street SPDR, SPY iShares, IVV Vanguard, VOO This index has delivered an annualized return of approximately 7.48% (depending on month calculated) in the past ten years with an annualized standard deviation of approximately 15.05%. This performance is certainly not rock star, but is respectable and relatively consistent. On a longer time period (since 1928), the S&P 500 has averaged around 10% annualized. So what is the S&P 500? The S&P 500 is an index composed of 500 companies in the U.S., considered leaders in their respective industries. Companies in this index are mostly of large capitalization and together they represent around 80% of the economy. Therefore, this index is considered a representation of the U.S. market. Some companies in this index are Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ ), and General Electric (NYSE: GE ) . Knowing this index represents the U.S. market and that it has performed relatively well, we ask ourselves if we can make a better index. Like all changes, there may be something to sacrifice. Second, what do we seek in an investment? It turns out two and only two things are priority. First, we want our investment to appreciate the most be in terms of capital appreciation, income (dividend or interest), or both. Second, we want our investment to be as less risky as possible. We measure risk as continuous change in value (standard deviation) and loss of permanent capital. How do we minimize risk? Our first action is to diversity; this way we eliminate diversifiable risk known as unsystematic risk (company going bankrupt or not meeting expectations). Second, we invest in strategy that has delivered expected returns over an expected holding time period. Meet the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index. This index is a stripped version of the S&P 500, by selecting 100 constituents with the lowest volatility over the trailing 12 months from the S&P 500 and rebalancing the index quarterly. What is so great about this index? The risk-adjusted returns are impressive. Here is a graph of the index performance: (click to enlarge) As can be seen, the returns in the graph demonstrate adequate upside and safer downside risk in comparison to the S&P 500. How about the performance and the standard deviation of the index? (click to enlarge) Source: SP Indices The return table shows that on all periods except 3 years, the Low Volatility Index performs better than the S&P 500. Also, the Low Volatility Index demonstrates that it has been less risky than the S&P 500 in the trailing 3, 5, and 10 year periods. Before you get excited, I have talked about this index and the returns and risk it has provided over the previous 10 years but the index is not an instrument to invest in. So where can you invest in a fund that replicates this index? PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio (NYSEARCA: SPLV ). This ETF has over $5 billion in assets under management and charges a total expense ratio of 0.25%, making liquidity and fees manageable. In terms of performance, the ETF has delivered an annualized return of 13.33% since inception versus 12.59% for the S&P 500 Index. The funds top ten holdings currently are Plum Creek Timber (NYSE: PCL ), PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP ), Republic Services ‘A’ (NYSE: RSG ), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG ), Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB ), Stericycle (NASDAQ: SRCL ), McCormick (NYSE: MKC ), Paychex (NASDAQ: PAYX ), Ace (NYSE: ACE ), and XL Group (NYSE: XL ). Source: PowerShares Currently, this ETF is the only investment option in this index (per my research). There are other low-volatility ETF’s out there, but their methodology differs. It is clear SPLV is an attractive position to be considered for any portfolio.