Tag Archives: scty

Can Tesla ‘Cousin’ SolarCity Hold Above Key Level Before Earnings?

After testing support at a key level in Tuesday’s session, SolarCity ( SCTY ) is trying to hold above that mark in the stock market today , ahead of its quarterly report next Monday. The stock rose nearly 5% Wednesday morning on a bullish analyst rating, but it reversed lower amid a market sell-off. SolarCity is now mostly unchanged, with the stock trading in quick turnover. A gain would end a four-session slide, with shares bouncing back from a test of support at their 50-day line. The stock is trading more than 50% below its 52-week high, as the shares have been scorched in recent months by Nevada’s new net-metering rules. Guggenheim initiated coverage on the solar panel installer with a buy rating and a price target of 38. On Monday, Credit Suisse cut its price target on SolarCity from 89 to 62 while maintaining its outperform rating. When it reports after the close next Monday, SolarCity is expected to report a 61% revenue rise, while its per-share loss widens to $2.34 a share from $1.52 a share last year. SolarCity’s “cousin company”  Tesla Motors ( TSLA ) — which is helmed by SolarCity Chairman Elon Musk — reports after the close tonight, Wednesday evening. Tesla shares are down nearly 2% intraday, falling just below their 50-day line but still just above their 200-day. Tesla is projected to show a widened bottom-line loss on sales growth of 45% as the automaker ramps up Model X production. Tesla’s Powerwall battery storage units are now beginning residential installations. SolarCity, whose founders are Musk’s cousins, is incorporating the Tesla batteries into its own energy storage system. Meanwhile, SolarCity rival Sunrun ( RUN ) reports earnings next Thursday. The August 2015 IPO’s sales are projected to come in at $83.4 million, down 16% from Q4, while its loss deepens from last quarter to 53 cents a share. Sunrun is up nearly 60% from its February low, but it is still nearly 50% below its all-time high reached in December. Sunrun rose fractionally Wednesday intraday. Elsewhere in the solar panel space, Solaredge ( SEDG ) fell 4.5%, and First Solar ( FSLR ) retreated by 1.7%. First Solar has lost 16% in five days since reporting weaker-than-expected revenue last week.

Could Sunrun-NRG Energy Pairing Topple No. 1 Rival SolarCity?

No. 2 residential installer Sunrun ( RUN ) could fortify against top rival SolarCity ( SCTY ) by acquiring NRG Energy ‘s ( NRG ) rooftop business, a Credit Suisse analyst suggested Monday. But both Sunrun and SolarCity stocks were torched by the analyst’s estimate cuts. In morning trading on the stock market today , SolarCity stock was down 4.5%, while Sunrun stock was down nearly 2%. SolarCity and Sunrun are slated to report Q1 earnings on May 9 and May 12, respectively. Installations appear to be tracking in line, but bookings are below guidance and will likely jeopardize the companies’ respective 44% and 40% growth guidance, said Credit Suisse analyst Patrick Jobin. Jobin cut his price targets on SolarCity and Sunrun stocks to 62 from 89, and to 18 from 21, respectively. In a research note, Jobin said he expects SolarCity to have installed 178 megawatts in Q1, up 18% year over year, vs. guidance for 180 MW. “We believe we are being very conservative, a necessary measure as the company has missed guidance (in) three of the last five quarters,” he wrote. Jobin expects Sunrun to hit installation views for 56 MW, down 17% vs. the year-earlier quarter, on the exclusion of 12 MW in Nevada. Nevada recently cut payments to solar customers for energy fed back into the grid, and it retroactively applied the new rules to existing customers, prodding solar companies to exit the state. That Nevada net-metering decision, complicated by “regulatory flux” — California and Massachusetts’ rule-making and the Investment Tax Credit extension — is the likely culprit behind slow Q1 bookings, Jobin wrote. For Q1, the consensus of 17 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters tips SolarCity to report $108.5 million in sales, up 61% year over year, and a $2.34 per-share loss minus items, widening from a $1.52 loss in the year-earlier quarter. Three months ago, SolarCity guided to a $2.55-$2.65 per-share loss minus items. Sunrun is expected to report $83.4 million in sales and a 53-cent per-share loss minus items. Sales would fall 16% from Q4, and losses would deepen from a 15-cent loss in the prior quarter. Sunrun made its IPO last August. Jobin cut his U.S. 2016 residential demand to 3 gigawatts, up 45%. Of that, he expects SolarCity to install 1.2 GW, and Sunrun to install 271 MW. NRG could prove a wildcard, Jobin said. A deal with Sunrun would make sense, given the firm’s platform model. “NRG’s residential business has been earmarked for a change — potentially an imminent sale or partnership,” he wrote. “Whatever happens will be critical, as it could enable a weaker player or strengthen an incumbent.”

First Solar Q1 Torched On ITC Extension; SunPower, Sunrun Burned

First Solar ( FSLR ) stock tumbled Thursday on its $100-million-plus Q1 sales miss late Wednesday and the “understandable” but likely-to-raise-questions resignation of CEO Jim Hughes, Credit Suisse analyst Patrick Jobin says. CFO Mark Widmar will succeed Hughes, effective July 1. Alexander Bradley, vice president of global project finance and treasurer, will step in for Widmar. Hughes led First Solar out of its rocky May 2012 “crisis,” Jobin wrote in a research report. “Polysilicon costs were plummeting and First Solar’s technology was becoming cost disadvantaged,” Jobin wrote. “He successfully regained First Solar’s position of strength, the company’s panel is close to multi-crystalline,” he wrote. The management shift was inevitable, but “changes always tend to raise questions,” Jobin noted. He kept his neutral rating and 72 price target on First Solar stock. In afternoon trading on the stock market today , First Solar stock was down 6.5%, leading a broad 3% tumble in IBD’s 20-company Energy-Solar industry group. Shares of No. 2 rival SunPower ( SPWR ) were down nearly 2%. Residential installers Vivint Solar ( VSLR ) and Sunrun ( RUN ) stocks were down 3.5% and 2.5%, respectively, but shares of No. 1 rival SolarCity ( SCTY ) were up a fraction. For Q1, First Solar reported 3% year-over-year sales growth to $848 million and $1.66 earnings per share, swinging from a 62-cent per-share loss in the year-earlier period. EPS topped views after First Solar sold a 15% stake in its Desert Stateline project to Southern Co. ( SO ) and gained a one-time $38 million cash boost from its module recycling program, Mizuho analyst James von Riesemann wrote in a report. But analysts called for $958.3 million in sales, up 106% year over year. Adjusting for the Stateline and one-time asset sale, First Solar’s EPS would have come in around $1.06, Jobin wrote, still beating the consensus of 21 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters for 93 cents. First Solar blamed shifting to lower-priced, module-only sales for the disappointing Q1 sales, von Riesemann reported. He reiterated his neutral rating and 67 price target on First Solar stock. “The key issue appears to be how First Solar’s customers re-sort the timing of projects, given the ITC (investment tax credit) extension and how those customers’ procurement projects will be built up,” he wrote. Hughes noted as much in his remarks on the the company’s late Wednesday earnings conference call. Congress extended the key solar subsidy in December, pushing its expiration date out five years from the initial Dec. 31, 2016, end date. Analysts had predicted a sharp drop-off in installations following the ITC expiration. “In the U.S., the ITC extension has led to an increase in overall opportunity, but customers continue to work through revisions to project timing,” he said. That “has led to some temporary delays in new contracted bookings.”