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ServiceNow May Settle Some Patent Litigation With BMC Software

ServiceNow ( NOW ) stock rose Tuesday, with word out that it might be able to settle some of its patent litigation with privately held BMC Software, avoiding a trial scheduled to start Friday. A cloud-based business software rival of SAP ( SAP ) and Salesforce.com ( CRM ), ServiceNow shares were up more than 4% in afternoon trading in the stock market today , near 60.70. William Blair analyst Justin Furby suggested the possible settlement may “be a mild positive, as the prospect of a jury trial and the potential appeals process … would have likely created overhang on the stock. “More importantly, until this point, we believe the litigation has not affected ServiceNow’s sales cycles,” Furby wrote in a research note Tuesday. But the increased public attention of a trial “could have delayed sales for SerivceNow, particularly if the court would have ruled in BMC’s favor. “Lastly, BMC had sought injunctive relief, and had the lawsuit and subsequent appeals process gone against ServiceNow, it could have faced the prospect of discontinuing or rewriting certain of its applications,” Furby said. BMC sued ServiceNow in September 2014, claiming seven patent violations. Courts dismissed two claims, and BMC withdrew a third. But last month, BMC filed a second lawsuit against ServiceNow, claiming infringement of five patents, two of which were included in the original litigation, Furby said, adding that he didn’t know if the proposed settlement included this second case. He said he spoke with someone at ServiceNow who told him that “all matters in controversy between the parties have been settled, in principle.” ServiceNow did not immediately respond to IBD’s request for comment. The four remaining claims of the original lawsuit involve “managing a computer network via hierarchy,” collecting performance management data, determining the root cause of a problem, and “spotlight visualization” for IT service models, Furby noted. Hewlett Packard Also Suing ServiceNow As for separate litigation filed against ServiceNow in February 2014 by the former Hewlett-Packard Co. — now represented in the action by  Hewlett Packard Enterprise ( HPE ) — claiming eight patent infringements, the court threw out four claims, stayed litigation on two, and scheduled an April 29 hearing and a May 22, 2017, trial date for the remaining two claims, Furby said. “The BMC settlement has yet to be finalized, and we are unclear what the amount will be and whether ServiceNow will be paying ongoing licensing fees to BMC as part of a potential settlement,” Furby wrote. ServiceNow has not been accruing reserves for damages but has been “expensing significant ongoing attorney fees … incorporated into guidance,” he said. Furby put the company’s net cash pile at about $700 million and estimated $325 million in free cash flow in 2016 prior to any settlement. ServiceNow stock is trading 34% off a record high 91.28 set Dec. 4. Its stock plunged 15.7% on Jan. 28 after reporting billings below expectations, although fourth-quarter non-GAAP EPS was up 533% to 19 cents, doubling analysts’ consensus, and revenue was up 44% to $285.6 million, also topping Wall Street. The IBD Computer Software-Enterprise industry group, led by SAP and Salesforce.com, has fallen 18% from its November highs. With $91.9 billion in market cap, SAP leads the group, followed by Salesforce’s $46.8 billion market value. ServiceNow’s market cap stands at $9.6 billion. Shares of SAP and  Salesforce were up a fraction Tuesday afternoon, but Hewlett Packard Enterprise stock was down 2.5%.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Rockets On Q1; Could It Reign In Cloud?

While investors applauded Hewlett Packard Enterprise ‘s first quarterly performance as an independent company — beating Wall Street estimates and driving its stock up more than 13% Friday — some analysts and owners are pushing CEO Meg Whitman to compete harder. That means more aggressively taking on cloud enterprise leaders Amazon ( AMZN ) and Microsoft ( MSFT ), and buying up software  rivals such as  Workday ( WDAY ) or Salesforce.com ( CRM ), rather than directing cash to shareholders. “I think we need to give Meg a chance to see if she can take advantage of the opportunities in servers with the cloud migration led by Amazon Web Services, Alphabet ‘s ( GOOGL ) Google and Microsoft on the service and software side,” said Daniel Morgan, vice president of Synovus Trust, which holds 251,971 shares of HPE, in a Friday interview with IBD. “Further, the 54% year-over-year growth in the Q1 2016 quarter in networking allows HPE to build more momentum in this space” vs. rivals Cisco Systems ( CSCO ) and Juniper Networks ( JNPR ), he said. “And finally as we discussed before, the huge opportunity to expand the software unit with its 17%-plus operating margins (enables) a large acquisition in the cloud space. Right now software is just 8%-10% of total HPE revenues.” Buying enterprise software rivals Salesforce or Workday specifically is “a chance to make that unit significant by bringing it up to 20%-25% of revenues,” he said. “Post-split, Hewlett Packard Enterprise was supposed to be the growth portion of the Hewlett-Packard Co., (creating) a reinvigorated growth company.” Nevertheless, happy with HPE’s earnings performance issued after Thursday’s market close, investors bid up its stock up 13.5% to close at 15.44 in the stock market today . That’s less than 3% below its Dec. 1 high since splitting from its parent Nov. 1. For now, HPE stockholders interested in growth of any kind will need patience because the company is still shrinking, despite the slight Q1 beat. Hewlett Packard Enterprise reported earnings of 41 cents per share in the fiscal Q1 ended Jan. 31, on sales down 3% to $12.72 billion vs. pro forma figures from a year earlier. The results slightly beat the average view of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, which called for EPS of 40 cents on sales of $12.68 billion. The non-GAAP 41 cents EPS is down from 47 cents a year earlier. (However, if HPE had been a standalone company at the time, Q1 2015 adjusted EPS would have been 44 cents, the company said in a March 1 note.) That’s pretty much as planned, with HPE not projecting much growth until fiscal 2018. For Q2 ending in April, HPE expects EPS ex items of 39 cents to 43 cents.  Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected Q2 EPS ex items of 42 cents on sales of $12.297 billion before Thursday’s earnings release, but on Friday, the revenue consensus was revised up to $12.332 billion. For the entire fiscal 2016 ending Oct. 31,  analysts  polled by Thomson Reuters projected $1.87 EPS ex items for fiscal 2016 ending Oct. 31, on revenue revised up Friday to $50.805 billion. HPE earlier had modeled $50.81 billion in revenue in fiscal 2016, down 2.5% from a $52.12 billion pro forma in fiscal 2015. The slightly smaller half of the old Hewlett-Packard Co., now called HP Inc. ( HPQ ), kept the legacy PCs, printers and ticker. HP Inc. lifted 0.6% to 11.18 Friday. Hewlett Packard Enterprise kept the enterprise software, servers, networking and financial services businesses. “Backing Up The Truck” To Buy HPE Stock To encourage patience among Hewlett Packard Enterprise shareholders, CFO Tim Stonesifer said HPE will “return at least 100% of our free cash flow outlook to shareholders” in fiscal 2016, after devoting $1.3 billion to share repurchases and dividends in Q1. In “addition,” Stonesifer said, shareholders will receive a “majority” of proceeds from the sale of a 51% stake in its Chinese server and storage business to Tsinghua Holdings, valued at $2.3 billion at the time the deal was announced last May. The transaction was supposed to be done by February, but Whitman said regulatory delays have pushed back closing to May, after which the cash will flow to shareholders. To UBS analyst Steve Milunovich, who complained in the post-earnings-release conference call that HPE shares were priced too low, Whitman chuckled: “We appreciate that, which is why we’re backing up the truck” to buy back more shares, which helps boost the price. Avoiding “Frankenstein Of Architecture” Whitman advised analysts that by investing internally and encouraging organic growth “you don’t end up with a Frankenstein of architecture” as the company would risk doing by  growing through acquisitions. She cited HPE for pursuing both paths. “Our innovation engine is firing on all cylinders, and you’re going to see some amazing new introductions in the coming quarters in key areas of the portfolio, including servers, cloud, high-performance computing, IoT (Internet of Things), all-flash storage, Aruba and converged systems.” Aruba Networks is a networking leader in mobile enterprise that the old Hewlett-Packard agreed to buy last March for about $3 billion, strengthening the new HPE’s rivalry with Cisco Systems and Juniper Networks. As for “taking advantage of the disruption in the marketplace,” Whitman said, “we learned a lot about how to do this in the context of IBM’s ( IBM ) sale of their server business to Lenovo. … We have a big opportunity to go take (merging) Dell and EMC ( EMC ) business, much as we took a lot of the Lenovo business that would have gone to Lenovo.” She told CNBC on Friday that “in the last quarter, we had about 107 deals that we actually took from Dell/EMC.” She also told analysts that HPE has become the “leading infrastructure provider for SAP ( SAP ) HANA (application server) with nearly twice the number of shipments over the next competitor.” In the cloud, she said, “following a major wave of product releases across our HPE Helion portfolio in the second half of 2015, we are seeing strong customer traction. In fact, since separation, Helion has gained over 200 customer wins, including some of the world’s largest banks, service providers and industrials.” It just wasn’t enough for Needham analyst Richard Kugele, who chided the company in a research note issued Friday, arguing that the $2.3 billion windfall from Tsinghua should be spent on organic or M&A growth, not shareholders’ short-term benefit. “We had hoped that post-split, HPE would be able to focus on getting its house in order and leverage its cash and balance sheet to buy/invest in solutions that solve their product gaps,” Kugele said. “Instead, the company seems intent on continuing financial engineering by doubling its cash return to shareholders (including the pending Tsinghua cash). In our view, this creates no sustainable value for the company or its investors but merely provides a floor for the stock during a period of poor enterprise spending. “With no material growth, revenue improvement or product strategy to build a buy thesis around, we reiterate our hold rating on the stock.” Said Morgan, the Synovus Trust portfolio manager who wants to give Whitman time to execute: “I did hear HPE management touting its share repurchases and FCF (free cash-flow) generation capability on the call. And this is very reminiscent of when Mark Hurd was leading HPQ  (the former Hewlett-Packard Co.) and grew the share price through financial engineering and not new product growth.” Hurd is now co-CEO of Oracle ( ORCL ), one of HPE’s toughest software rivals, and another legacy giant growing slowly.  

Google Seen Slashing Cloud Pricing Vs. Amazon, Microsoft

The next round of price cutting in public cloud computing services could come from Alphabet ’s ( GOOGL ) Google, just as Amazon.com and Microsoft show some restraint, says a Goldman Sachs research report. Amazon Web Services (AWS), part of  Amazon.com ( AMZN ) , is the biggest provider of infrastructure as a service (IaaS), where customers rent computer servers and data storage systems via the Internet. Microsoft ( MSFT ) and Alphabet’s Google are the next biggest. The new boss of Google’s cloud business, Diane Greene, will make her debut at that unit’s user conference March 23 to 24, notes the Goldman Sachs report. Greene, a Google board member since January 2012, founded virtualization leader VMware ( VMW ), which she led as CEO until she was forced out in 2008. In November, Google acquired Greene’s startup, Bebop, for $380 million. While AWS has been the biggest IaaS price-cutter of the last decade, Google Cloud Platform (GCP) has been aggressive since moving into the market. Google slashed prices in March 2014, October 2014 and May-June 2015, Goldman analyst Heather Bellini said in the report. “Another 20% to 30% across-the-board price cut from Google in 2016 would not be surprising,” wrote Bellini. “This could be announced as early as their GCP Next conference in San Francisco on March 23-24. Similar to behavior in 2015, we do not expect Amazon and Microsoft to follow suit.” Goldman Sachs says that the top three service providers are gaining share as Verizon Communications ( VZ ), Hewlett Packard Enterprise ( HPE ) and others exit the public IaaS market and focus on private clouds. Goldman Sachs estimates that AWS’ revenue will hit $12.5 billion in 2016, up from $7.88 billion last year. “If AWS surpasses $10 billion in 10 years, it would be the fastest-growing software business,” surpassing Microsoft, Oracle ( ORCL ), and SAP ( SAP ),” Bellini wrote.