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Think Flexible With Emerging-Market Asset Classes
By Morgan Harting A midyear sell-off in emerging-market stocks highlighted the challenges investors face in volatile times. We think a flexible approach that spans the asset classes can help. Equities dropped by about 25% between April and August, and volatility spiked to levels not seen since the mid-2013 “taper tantrum.” The cause: investors fretted about slowing Chinese growth, weaker commodity prices and looming US Federal Reserve rate hikes. It was particularly tough for passive equity investors whose exposure was concentrated in the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China. Don’t Pay for Beta in Emerging Markets This experience seemed to reinforce the notion that investors shouldn’t “pay for beta,” particularly in emerging markets. Passive equity strategies in that arena can be as much as 50% more volatile than in developed markets. The added return needed to justify a passive equity allocation requires a lot of conviction – or disregard for higher volatility. The good news is that emerging markets are still pretty inefficient. Active managers can add value by generating higher returns to justify higher risk, or by reducing the risk in passive strategies. We think the flexibility to tap multiple asset classes in one portfolio – including bonds – can be effective. It’s a compelling way to get more active, seeking to dampen volatility and improve risk-adjusted returns. Episodes like the taper tantrum – a global sell-off across asset classes – can disrupt things. But we think those are the exception, not the rule, in cross-asset diversification. In the recent downturn, multi-asset strategies did indeed outperform passive broad-market equity strategies. Multi-Asset: Newer to Emerging Markets Developed-market multi-asset strategies have been around for a while, but the emerging-market versions are relative newcomers. Many investors still prefer asset-class “pure” emerging-market strategies: all equity or all debt. As the thinking goes, it’s better for managers to focus on asset-class expertise than venture into other areas. We think high volatility in passive emerging-market equity changes the argument. Investors should use every tool to reduce risk and preserve returns. Multi-asset emerging-market approaches offer a tool that controls volatility better than just moving to lower-volatility stocks. The average volatility of emerging-market stocks? It’s 22% over the past decade. For bonds, it’s less than 5%, and with much less downside risk. The recent sell-off in emerging markets has made the volatility and downside risk-reduction benefits more evident, as these managers have outperformed meaningfully. The Case for Crossing Asset-Class Boundaries Granted, some active managers are very skilled in individual asset classes. But no matter which emerging-market asset class you’re in, the main return driver is broad emerging-market risk. The proof is in the return patterns. Over the past decade, the correlation between emerging-market stocks and bonds has been 0.7, much higher than the 0.1 between developed-market equity and debt. 1 With so many common return drivers among emerging asset classes, it seems to make more sense to manage emerging-market equity and debt together in a single portfolio than it does with developed markets. After all, the correlation between US and Japanese stocks is just 0.5, 2 but it’s hardly controversial anymore to suggest one manager for a global equity portfolio. Many investors want to take part in emerging-market growth and may see today’s attractive valuations as an enticing entry point. But they also might question whether it’s really worth it after factoring risk into the equation. We think multi-asset approaches offer a way to reduce some of that risk. Morgan C. Harting, CFA, CAIA Portfolio Manager – Multi-Asset Solutions 1,2 For the 10-year period ending September 25, 2015. Emerging-market stocks represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index; emerging-market bonds by the J.P. Morgan EMBI Global; US and Japanese stocks by their respective MSCI indices. Disclaimer: MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations, and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams.
2 Metal ETFs To Buy For Q4
Metal ETFs were clearly out of investors’ favor for much of 2014 and have been unloved so far this year. The combination of a stronger greenback, a slumping China, the oil price rout and the adverse demand-supply imbalance have put a hold over several industrial metals in recent times. Since the Chinese economy accounts for about half of the global consumption of the industrial commodities, a steep slowdown in the country’s economy and a protracted downturn in its manufacturing sector mean reduced demand for commodities. While the commodity market is yet to show any definite sign of recovery, a trend reversal seems to be playing on the horizon. A diminishing supply glut, multi-year low metal prices and production cuts in the face of loss-making might open up opportunities for some metal ETFs. Also, investors are increasingly wagering on hopes of a solid monetary stimulus in China which in turn will shore up the manufacturing sector and fuel metal prices and the related ETFs. Given this, investors may want to consider cycling into the industrial metal space in order to obtain a momentum play and profit out of a beaten-down space. How to Pick Right ETFs? First, fundamentals need to be favorable, then investors can look at our Zacks ETF Rank. This system looks to find the best ETFs in a given market segment based on a number fundamental and technical factors about the ETF and the Zacks forecast for the underlying industry or asset class. Following this technique we at Zacks revised our ETF ranks recently and found out that two metal ETFs have been upgraded from #3 (Hold) #2 (Buy). Below we highlight these two metal ETFs: Aluminum Aluminum consumption is likely to surge helped by the automotive and packaging industries. The boom in the airline industry is also another catalyst in driving the price higher. Also, policy easing in China should play a major role as the economy accounts for over 40% of global aluminum consumption. iPath Pure Beta Aluminum ETN (NYSEARCA: FOIL ) The product focuses on the Barclays Capital Aluminum Pure Beta TR Index. The index consists of a single futures contract but has a unique roll structure which selects contracts using the Pure Beta Series 2 Methodology. This strategy looks to limit the impact of contango while at the same time provides the collateralized return from U.S. T-Bills. The product has amassed about $1.6 million in assets and trades in paltry volumes of 500 shares a day. The product charges 75 bps in fees. FOIL was up over 4.5% in the last one month (as of September 25, 2015). Dow Jones-UBS Aluminum Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSEARCA: JJU ) This ETN delivers returns through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on aluminum and currently consists of one futures contract on the commodity. The product trades in a paltry volume of about 1,000 shares daily on average and has amassed $2.2 million in AUM. Expense ratio comes in at 0.75%. The product gained over 0.1% in the last one month. Nickel A fear of supply shortage could push up nickel price in Q4. Brazil’s giant producer expects the price to rebound in the last quarter brining about the ‘strongest performance’ since the start of 2015. GMK Norilsk Nickel PJSC, the world’s second-largest producer of nickel and Russia’s biggest mining company, ticked up its metal deficit forecast on a further cut in production. A significant reduction in LME inventory can be considered as a cue for a stable nickel market going forward. Plus, Indonesia’s decision to carry on the ban on exporting unprocessed ores would support the nickel price recovery. Notably, Indonesia is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of nickel, and accounts for 18-20% of global supply. iPath Pure Beta Nickel ETN (NYSEARCA: NINI ) This note seeks to match the performance of the Barclays Capital Nickel Pure Beta Total Return Index. Unlike many commodity indexes, this product can roll into one of a number of futures contracts with varying expiration dates, as selected, using the Barclays Pure Beta Series 2 Methodology. The ETN manages just $0.8 million in its asset base and sees light volume of about 1,500 shares a day, suggesting additional cost beyond the annual fee of 75 bps per year. The note was down 2.4% in the last one month (as of September 25, 2015). iPath Dow Jones-UBS Nickel Subindex Total Return (NYSEARCA: JJN ) This ETN tracks the Dow Jones-UBS Nickel Subindex Total Return. The index delivers returns through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on nickel and currently consists of one futures contract on the commodity. The product is a bit expensive as it charges 75 bps in fees per year. It trades in a paltry volume of nearly 5,000 shares daily on average that increases the trading cost in the form of a wide bid/ask spread. The fund is also unpopular and has attracted just $6.3 million in AUM. JJN lost 0.8% in the last one month. Original Post