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Why Amazon’s World Domination May Come Sooner Than You Think

Loading the player… Amazon ( AMZN ) has solidified its position as an e-commerce leader, and its global takeover may happen sooner than you think. ‘Momentum’ Seen In Apparel A Cowen & Co. report out Wednesday forecasts Amazon displacing Macy’s ( M ) as the No. 1 U.S. apparel retailer by 2017, driven by selection, fulfillment and brand relationships. Amazon’s momentum in apparel is also seen leading to retailer mergers and acquisitions, as well as store closures. Cowen also projects that Amazon will displace Target ( TGT ), Walgreens ( WBA ) and CVS ( CVS ) to become the No.2 company in consumables, behind Wal-Mart ( WMT ), by 2018. The report calculates a compound annual growth rate of 27% for the e-commerce giant’s consumables market. Amazon Worth $3 Trillion? Meanwhile, Social Capital has set a very bullish $3 trillion, 10-year valuation on the stock, with the venture capital firm citing strength across retail and its Amazon Web Services segment. Amazon’s current market cap is about $314 billion, while Apple — the most valuable public company — has about a $515 billion market cap. IBD’s take: How does Amazon stack up vs. its peers? Find out at IBD Stock Checkup After gapping up on its strong earnings report last week, shares are now extended 10% from a cup-with-handle buy point initially cleared in mid-April. The stock is trading about 5% below its all-time high reached at the end of last year, and it was down 1.4% Thursday. Wal-Mart, Macy’s Stocks Lag Meanwhile, Wal-Mart recently plunged below its 50-day line and has yet to retake that level, as it slumped 0.6% in intraday trade. Shares are sitting 16% below their 52-week peak. And Macy’s shares are trading nearly 50% below their all-time high reached last July. They are on track to hit a nearly four-month low Thursday, falling 2.3%.

Regeneron Up As Eylea Beats Views; Merck Down As Lead Drugs Slip

Big-cap drugmakers Regeneron Pharmaceuticals ( REGN ) and Merck ( MRK ) were moving in opposite directions in Thursday trading after their Q1 earnings reports, though both companies raised guidance. Regeneron’s quarterly revenue rose 38% over the year-earlier period to $1.2 billion, beating analysts’ consensus by about $240 million, according to Thomson Reuters. Earnings of $2.57 a share were a penny short of estimates and down 11% from last year’s Q1. But on the crucial metric of U.S. sales of flagship drug Eylea, Regeneron reported 44% growth to $781 million, beating consensus by $11 million, and the company raised its full-year growth estimate to 20% to 25% vs. its previous 20%. The earnings miss stemmed from higher spending for selling, general and administrative costs, though spending guidance for the year remained unchanged. Also, cholesterol drug Praluent, which was launched last July, missed consensus again, but its numbers remained small ($13 million) as the company awaited the results of a cardiovascular outcomes trial of both Praluent and rival Amgen ‘s ( AMGN ) Repatha later this year. Regeneron said that payer coverage for Praluent is good so far, with 74% of the commercially insured and 91% of those on Medicare having access to the drug. Regeneron stock was up 5% in midday trading on the stock market today , near 380. Merck Reports Mixed Quarter Merck posted earnings of 89 cents a share, up 5% from the year-earlier period and beating consensus by 4 cents. Sales declined 1% to $9.31 billion, missing Wall Street’s number by $150 million. Merck stock was down 1.5% midday Thursday, near 54. Merck added a few cents to its 2016 EPS guidance range, now $2.65 to $3.77, and also raised the low end of its revenue guidance, now $39 billion to $40.2 billion. Echoing a number of global pharmas this earnings season, Merck cited improving foreign-exchange rates. The revenue shortfall was spread around a number of different drugs, including blockbuster diabetes drug Januvia and immunology drug Remicade. More interesting to analysts was up-and-coming cancer drug Keytruda, which missed estimates in the U.S. but beat slightly worldwide, especially after rival Bristol-Myers Squibb ‘s ( BMY ) Opdivo beat consensus  last week. Bristol-Myers also moved up its reporting date for a trial of Opdivo as a first-line treatment for lung cancer to Q3 from its previously guided Q4, eroding the advantage for Merck, which expects to report results for a similar trial of Keytruda at midyear. Both drugs are now approved only for previously treated patients, so first-line approval could significantly expand the market. Merck also reported $50 million in sales for its hepatitis C drug Zepatier, which just launched in late January. Although that’s tiny compared with the $2.1 billion reported by market leader Gilead Sciences ( GILD ), both Gilead and AbbVie ( ABBV ) said on their earnings calls last week that Merck’s aggressive discounting had affected their own businesses. Nonetheless, RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Yee wrote that this may not have been directly responsible for Gilead’s miss. “(Merck) suggested negotiations for important parity access remain ongoing, with the exception of the Veterans Administration (10% of the market), which they have good access on … but interestingly suggested many of the commercial payor access deals are for 2017 impact, since 2016 contracts were already completed,” Yee wrote in a research note. “So what Gilead said about their lower sales in U.S. (being) mostly due to just higher gross-to-net from healthier patients coming in (not so much from competition) could be true, realizing price competition is still ongoing and coming and needs to be watched.”

Fitbit Fails Q1 Physical, Stock Collapses On Q2 Guidance

Fitbit ( FIT ) stock tumbled Thursday after the maker of wearable fitness trackers said increased spending on marketing and R&D will cut into earnings near term. Fitbit shares were down 14%, near 14.50, in morning trading on the stock market today . The stock sliced through its 50-day moving average, a key support level, in touching a six-week low. Late Wednesday, Fitbit smashed Wall Street’s targets for the first quarter , but the company delivered mixed guidance for the current quarter. It earned 10 cents a share excluding items on sales of $505.4 million. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected 3 cents EPS and $444.3 million in sales. On a year-over-year basis, Q1 sales rose 50%, but earnings dropped 63%. For the current quarter, Fitbit is projecting earnings per share of 8 to 11 cents excluding items on sales of $575 million at the midpoint of guidance. Wall Street had been modeling Fitbit to earn 26 cents a share on sales of $531.3 million. Fitbit competes in the health and fitness wearables market with Apple ( AAPL ), Garmin ( GRMN ) and others. Battle Of Fitbit Bulls And Bears Oppenheimer analyst Andrew Uerkwitz reiterated his outperform rating on Fitbit stock with a 12- to 18-month price target of 25. The digital health market is showing strong demand, but Fitbit management “is struggling with the pushes and pulls of operating a rapidly growing business,” he said in a research report. Volatility in operating expenses is pressuring the stock, he says. Fitbit bulls say the company is “striking while the iron is hot” and ramping up marketing and R&D spending to capitalize on the growing market. But bears argue that if Fitbit “takes its foot off the gas, the ride will stop,” Uerkwitz said. FBN Securities analyst Shebly Seyrafi maintained his outperform rating on Fitbit stock but trimmed his price target to 22 from 25. S&P Global analyst Angelo Zino kept his hold rating on Fitbit stock with a price target of 20. “Fitbit is seeing good penetration for its newest devices, Blaze and Alta,” Zino said in a report. “But we are cautious about elevated second-half expectations and intense competitive pressures.” Edison Investment Research analyst Richard Windsor said Fitbit’s higher sales and marketing spending has placed “unrealistic expectations of profitability” in the second half of the year. “This is particularly worrying as there are clear signs that commoditization is forcing the company to increase spending, hitting profits,” he said in a report. To meet its EPS guidance, Fitbit will need to generate 83% of its net profit in the last six months of the year, he said. “Given the environment, this looks to be a very tall order and there is likely a heavy cut to full-year EPS guidance coming either in June or October,” Windsor said. Piper Jaffray analyst Erinn Murphy reiterated her neutral rating on Fitbit, with a price target of 16. “While we are pleased with the traction of new products, we are wary of the Q4-weighted guide and opt to remain on sidelines,” she said in a report. Fitbit Dominates Fitness Device Market On the company’s earnings conference call with analysts, Fitbit CEO James Park expressed confidence in the company’s ability to continue to lead the nascent digital health market. “Fitbit has had an incredible and consistent track record of creating and launching innovative devices and software that people love,” he said. “Over nine years of creating and leading this category, we’ve gained a deep and proprietary understanding of the market and our customers.” San Francisco-based Fitbit is putting a lot of “marketing muscle” worldwide behind its Blaze fitness watch and Alta activity tracker, which were both launched in March, Park said. Retail sales tracker NPD Group on Thursday reported that Fitbit remained the king of connected digital fitness devices in the first quarter. It said Fitbit accounted for 81% of the dollars spent in the category in the U.S. in Q1. Fitbit does most of its business in the U.S. In Q1, 70% of Fitbit’s revenue came from the U.S. Europe, Middle East and Africa contributed 15% of sales, followed by Asia-Pacific with 11%.