Apple iPhone 7 Ramp To Slug Analog Devices On Declining Q2 Sales
Apple ‘s ( AAPL ) lukewarm iPhone 7 ramp may slug Analog Devices ( ADI ) early Wednesday, when the chipmaker is expected to report a 5% year-over-year revenue dip on a 40% sequential plunge in sales to Apple. But a “bright spot” of industrial and automotive sales will show a seasonal boost, outplaying rival Xilinx ( XLNX ), and wireless communication revenue will come off a trough to top competitors Nokia ( NOK ) and Cavium ( CAVM ), MKM analyst Ian Ing said Tuesday. In morning trading on the stock market today , Analog Devices stock was up a fraction, near 55.50. Shares are flat for the year vs. a 6% fall in IBD’s 38-company Electronic Semiconductor-Manufacturing industry group. Analog Devices stock hit a 2016 high on April 27 at 59.87, but it’s down 7% in the three weeks since then. In late April, Apple reported its first-ever year-over-year decline in iPhone shipments, in its March-quarter results. Analog Devices is expected to post $777.6 million in sales and 62 cents earnings per share ex items, down a respective 5% and 15% vs. the year-earlier quarter, for its fiscal Q2 ended on or near April 30, according to the consensus of 29 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. That would follow flat Q1 sales and Analog Devices’ first EPS decline in 11 quarters. Wall Street expects typically strong Q3 and Q4 sales to also decline — by 2% and 6%, respectively. Over the past two years, Q3 had risen an average 13.5%, and Q4 sales had gained an average 20%. Recent reports indicate Apple suppliers are getting fewer orders compared with the year-ago period. Credit Suisse analyst John Pitzer expects Analog Devices to report $30 million in Q2 sales to Apple, down 40% sequentially. For Q3, he models $80 million in sales to Apple vs. consensus views for $110 million. “We suspect modest downside to our Apple revenue estimate for (the second half of the year) offset by upside to (industrial, automotive and communications),” he wrote in a research report. Apple accounts for about 10% of Analog Devices’ sales, Pitzer estimated. Views for $200 million in Apple sales for the latter half of 2016 would be down 15% year over year, but they still “might be $20 million to $30 million too high,” he said. But $1.33 billion views for automotive, industrial and communications sales, up 2% vs. the year-earlier period, doesn’t reflect accelerating advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and communications infrastructure opportunities, he wrote. Pitzer retained his outperform rating and 72 price target on Analog Devices stock. Ing kept his neutral rating and 56 price target. Analog Devices’ messaging has tilted in favor of “analog utility” investors vs. momentum growth investors, Ing wrote in a report. Analog utility investors prefer business-to-business ventures over “volatile” portables exposure.