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Alpha On Steroids, AKA ‘Microwave Alpha’

In the Paradox of Skill , author Brad Steiman accurately proclaims that ” confirming skill takes an investment lifetime, and you can never be fully confident that the alpha is not random. ” Alpha is the intercept in a regression of fund performance versus a benchmark. It measures success across time, and that is why it takes so long — you need a lot of observations (time periods) to gain significance. As shown in the following picture, it takes more than 140 years to identify the skill of a low-skill manager, and even an extraordinary manager will take 20 years to manifest statistical significance, and by that time the management might not be the same. Click to enlarge Nonetheless performance evaluators continue to use alpha as their skill barometer without ever questioning its meaningfulness. No one wants to wait decades, so we ignore the underlying theory. “Alpha” sounds like science, being a Greek letter and all, but there’s little science in its actual usage. But don’t despair. There is a new and better approach that can deliver statistical significance in a much shorter period of time. Call it alpha on steroids, or microwave alpha — shortening decades to years. The breakthrough determines statistically significant success in the cross-section rather than across time. I’ve written about this approach in Real Long-Only Due Diligence and Real Hedge Fund Due Diligence . A portfolio simulator creates all the portfolios the manager might have held, selecting stocks from a custom benchmark — thousands of portfolios. A ranking in the top 10% of this scientific peer group is significant at the 90% level, even if it’s for a short period of time, like a quarter. To state an extreme example, a return of, say, 1000% is significant, and you don’t have to wait 50 years to declare it significant. This process creates what I call “Success Scores. ” A statistician would call them “p values.” A ranking in this scientific peer group is the statistical significance of performance above the benchmark. Of course it’s still important to get the benchmark right, which means custom is highly advised. So you have a choice. You can continue to use alpha, but you really should wait the requisite time before you invest, or you can use Success Scores. An additional benefit of Success Scores is that they replace peer groups with their myriad biases, including “Loser Bias” caused by the fact that most members of peer groups underperform their benchmarks, creating a race against losers. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

What Makes A Stock Go Up (Or Down)?

When it comes to the stock market, one thing is for certain: stocks go up and stocks go down. The question is: what makes a stock go up or down? What makes a stock go up or down is determined by the recent operating results of a business and its future expectations. This means stock prices reflect both fundamentals (operating results) and emotions (future expectations). When either one or both of these change for a particular stock, its price will be affected. What Makes A Stock Go Up (Or Down)? It’s impossible to pinpoint exactly what makes a stock go up or down on a daily basis. To borrow a phrase from The Princess Bride , “Anyone who says differently is selling something.” On the other hand, it’s quite simple to see what makes a stock go up or down over time. Stock prices are based on how investors think a company will perform in the future compared to how the company is performing now. In any investment, investors are betting on the future. Because the future is uncertain, stocks cannot be priced based on a business’s current operating results alone. They must be valued by predicting future performance. Price Ratios In order to quantify these predictions, investors use price ratios. Price ratios are simple tools which show how a stock is priced compared to its recent operating results. For example, a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 10 says that a stock is valued 10 times higher than its current earnings. This does not mean that investors expect the company’s earning to increase by a multiple of 10 in the near future. It merely means that if the earnings were to stay constant, investors would break even on their initial investment after 10 years. In other words, the earnings yield on the principal is 10% (10/100 = 0.1). Say a stock has a P/E of 50 and investors still expect to receive an earnings yield of 10%. Paying 50 times earnings only makes sense if the company’s earnings are expected to increase substantially over time. Multiple Futures No matter how badly stock analysts pretend to be fortune tellers, no one can accurately forecast a company’s future performance (especially on a consistent basis). Charles Duhigg, in his book Smarter, Faster, Better: The Secrets of Being Productive in Life and Business , summarizes the reality of what the future is. Duhigg says, “The future isn’t one thing. Rather, it is a multitude of possibilities that often contradict one another until one of them comes true.” These multitude of possibilities are what cause price ratios to fluctuate so often for any one stock. Although there are countless numbers of possible futures when considering a stock investment, there are really only three general scenarios. Scenario #1: A company’s operating results will increase. Scenario #2: A company’s operating results will remain constant. Scenario #3: A company’s operating results will decrease. The level of a stock’s price ratios is determined based on which scenario investors anticipate will come true for that particular stock. Scenario #1: High price ratios. Scenario #2: Average price ratios. Scenario #3: Low price ratios. Operating Results Before getting too focused on price ratios, it’s important to remember that change in operating results is the second half to determining what makes a stock go up or down. Say a stock is reporting earnings per share (EPS) of $5 and has a P/E of 10. The stock would be valued at $50 per share ($5 x 10 = $50). Then, the company unexpectedly reports EPS of $5.50. If the P/E stays at 10, the stock is now valued at $55 per share. To summarize, stock prices go up or down depending on changes in operating results and the levels of its price ratios. The interesting thing is that changes in operating results most often trigger changes in price ratios. Because the future is hard to predict, operating results often differ (sometimes greatly) from what investors expect them to be. When a surprise like this happens, future expectations are reconsidered and price ratios are modified. Impact of Surprises In David Dreman’s book, Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Psychological Edge , he notes the impact of such surprises. Here is Dreman discussing the market’s reaction to unexpected results: Several researchers have found that when a company reports an earnings surprise (that is, a figure above or below the consensus of analysts’ forecasts), prices move up when the surprise is positive and down when it is negative.” It makes intuitive sense that stock price adjustments correlate with positive or negative surprises. Not only do the surprises reveal a change in operating results, but the change in operating results affect the future expectations of the company. This explains why value stocks (low price ratios) outperform growth stocks (high price ratios) over time. Value Goes Up, Growth Goes Down Low price ratios anticipate negative futures (decreased profits) and high price ratios anticipate positive futures (increased profits). Therefore, stocks with low price ratios have more upside potential. On the flip side, stocks with high price ratios have nowhere to go but down. In Contrarian Investment Strategies , Dreman references several studies which show that positive surprises impact value stocks greatly but only minimally affect growth stocks. The studies similarly show that negative surprises impact growth stocks greatly but only minimally affect value stocks. Here’s Dreman explaining the impact that both positive and negative surprises have on growth stocks: Growth Stocks: Positive Surprises Since analysts and investors alike believe that they can judge precisely which stocks will be the real winners in the years ahead, a positive surprise does little more than confirm their expectations.” Growth Stocks: Negative Surprises Investors expect only glowingly results for these stocks. After all, they confidently – overconfidently – believe that they can divine the future of a ‘good’ stock with precision. Those stocks are not supposed to disappoint. People pay top dollar for them for exactly this reason. So when a negative surprise arrives, the results are devastating.” And here’s Dreman explaining the impact that both positive and negative surprises have on value stocks: Value Stocks: Positive Surprises Those stock moved into the lowest category precisely because they were expected to continue to be dullards. They are the dogs of the investment world and investors believe they deserve minimal valuations. A positive earnings surprise for a stock in this group is an event. Investors sit up and take notice. Maybe, they think, these stocks are not as bad as analysts and investors believed.” Value Stocks: Negative Surprises Investors have low expectations for what they believe to be lackluster or bad stocks, and when these stocks do disappoint, few eyebrows are raised. The bottom line is that a negative surprise is not much of an event.” Fundamentals Change Expectations These scenarios explain why value stocks have nowhere to go but up, and growth stocks can only go down. If a value stock’s fundamentals unexpectedly increase, not only will its operating results improve, but investors’ future expectations will be raised as a result. Contrarily, a growth stock’s fundamentals are already expected to increase. Any improvement in operating results is already priced into the stock. Decreased operating results are already priced into value stocks but not growth stocks. Unexpected poor performances wreak havoc on growth stocks, but not value stocks. Buy Value Stocks Because human emotion plays a critical role in what makes a stock go up or down during the short term, investors are wise to invest where expectations are low and positive surprises are likely. To paraphrase a line from The Wolf of Wall Street, “It doesn’t matter if you’re Warren Buffett or Jimmy Buffett, no one knows if a stock will go up, down, or sideways.” We can know, however, which stocks are more likely to go up. Buying stocks with low price ratios is a time-tested approach to achieving superior investment returns.

Adapting The Bowser Game Plan

UNDERSTANDING THE UNDERLYING PHILOSOPHY TO HELP YOUR PORTFOLIO Aside from the in-depth, top-of-the-line analysis that The Bowser Report provides, there is another reason why subscribers have high returns: the Bowser Game Plan. This investment strategy has helped subscribers remain disciplined and realize profits for over forty years. For that reason, we always send new subscribers an explanation of the plan in some form. Still, we get a lot of questions and concerns. Sticking to a plan is essential for every investor. To succeed, you must either bring your own plan to the table or apply The Bowser Report’s. And, whatever the plan, it must align with your investment objectives, which vary from investor to investor. For example, some investors begin with a very limited amount of capital, restricting the size of their positions and their number of holdings. Therefore, these investors must develop or adapt plans to suit their needs and avoid losing money. While the Game Plan helps maximize profits and minimize risks for many subscribers, it is vital to understand the philosophy behind the strategy to better apply it directly or adapt its core strategies to fit your unique investment goals. BREAKING DOWN THE BOWSER GAME PLAN 1. DO NOT PAY more than $3/share for a stock. This is a fairly simple rule that we have always stuck to at The Bowser Report. Certain stocks are great buying opportunities at under $3 per share. Prior to publishing the first newsletter, founder Max Bowser noticed a trend that once a stock broke above the $3 threshold, it typically continued appreciating if the company’s fundamentals remained strong. The likely reason for this is that many institutions start taking positions when a stock surpasses $5 per share. Buying companies before institutional interest occurs increases the likelihood that fundamentally-sound, low-priced stocks will provide you with higher returns. 2. CREATE A PORTFOLIO of 12 to 18 stocks. Diversification is important. Diversification is essential when it comes to managing any portfolio. Most investors believe that investing in different stocks is how to diversify and minimize risk. However, this overlooks the fact that some of these stocks are within the same sectors, industries and even have similar sources of revenue. That’s why it’s always good to review our extensive analysis to ensure that our most recent stock pick doesn’t overlap with any of your current holdings. Another factor to consider when diversifying is how commissions can reduce your capital. A great free online brokerage is Robinhood, but if you use another broker, try not to over-diversify your portfolio. A simple rule of thumb is that if the commissions of buying and selling twelve stocks ($240 for the average broker) is more than 5% of your account value, then you should consider a smaller number of holdings. Regardless, we have found that holding twelve to eighteen stocks hedges against any potential big losses. The more stocks you own, the greater your chances of holding a winner, which will more than make up for the losers. 3. DO NOT SELL when a stock goes above $3/share and is moved to Page 5. Because I am also a day trader, the foundation of this rule is the backbone to my personal trading strategy. Never add to your losers, just your winners. That being said, a “winner” for The Bowser Report is a stock surpassing a share price of $3. By selling every time a stock breaks out of that price range, you are cutting your winner loose before it even has a chance to make you money. As you will later see, we emphasize taking your profits when your holdings double. If you take your profits as soon as it breaks $3, most of the time you’ll never give it the chance to double! 4. DO NOT SELL when a stock moves to a lower category. Just because a company isn’t performing well in the short term does not mean that it doesn’t have potential upside. If you are sufficiently diversified, you will have no problem with underperformers. The Bowser Report tries to focus on picking stocks that are going to be around for the long haul. That is why we focus on sales and earnings forming long-term trends, as opposed to just looking at the most recent quarterly results. By doing this, we are finding companies that will survive through short-term fluctuations in sales and earnings. All in all, try to avoid selling if you don’t have sound logic behind the decision. If you are not sure whether or not to sell, you can always refer to the next part of the Game Plan: the selling plan. 5. SELLING PLAN: Sell half of your holdings when the stock doubles from your purchase price. Sell the remainder after the stock drops 25% from its most recent high. If the stock drops 50% without doubling, sell all shares. This is easily the most important rule of the Bowser Game Plan. It highlights when to take profits and when to cut losses. Better yet, it has proven to work for Bowser subscribers for decades. Still, we’ve had subscribers deviate from the selling plan. Those who are successful outside of our selling plan find their success in thoroughly developed plans based on their own investment objectives. Investors deviating from the plan generally have vast investing experience, while individuals with little to no investing experience should stick to the Bowser Game Plan. An example of someone deviating would be an experienced investor who chooses to sell all his or her shares at one time as opposed to sizing out (i.e. selling half at one time and the other half later). There are countless other modifications to our selling plan, but those with no experience in developing a strict selling plan and sticking to it should use ours as a tried and true method. 6. RECORD proceeds from sales. It is important to always record your profits and losses in order to track performance. If you are only ever tracking your current holdings, you lose sight of where your portfolio began, and the profits it’s generated. Better yet, tracking buys and sells allows you to analyze your entries and exits. It also gives you the ability to see how well your plan is doing, and how well you are sticking with it. 7. PORTFOLIO EVALUATION = current value of portfolio + proceeds from sales. The same concept for #6 also applies to this rule. Value your portfolio and track your performance in order to better visualize your portfolio’s growth and your growth as an investor. ADAPTING THE GAME PLAN The big takeaway from breaking down the Bowser Game Plan is that disciplined investing generates profits. The Game Plan has been developed and fine-tuned over decades as a successful investment strategy. Those who are unfamiliar with strategy development or who tend to stray from self-developed strategies should absolutely stick to the rules of the Bowser Game Plan. However, no one situation is alike. Investment objectives vary depending on account size, risk tolerance, brokerage and other factors. That said, the Game Plan can and should be tweaked to suit your situation. Just make sure to do so in a regimented way! We touched briefly on brokerages in this article. We have our list of those we’ve had positive dealings within the past. Selecting which one is right for you is a whole other article in itself, but as long as the brokerage has stop orders, minimal commissions and good customer service, you should be fine. Overall, we would like to emphasize there is a need to have a structured game plan and to remain disciplined. If the Bowser Game Plan doesn’t fit your objectives, feel free to modify it in a structured and calculated manner if you have experience and are 100% comfortable doing so.