Facebook Revs Engine On Multibillion-Dollar Market Opportunities
A series of announcements by Facebook ( FB ) at its conference for developers this week puts the company on a solid path toward adding billions to its revenue stream. CEO Mark Zuckerberg set a 10-year strategy for Facebook on Tuesday that emphasized pushing its Messenger chat platform deeper into the business world with chatbots and by enhancing Live video with virtual reality. Zuckerberg presented his vision in a keynote speech at the start of Facebook’s two-day F8 Developer Conference on Tuesday in San Francisco. Analysts say the monetization strategy of Messenger will closely follow that of Instagram, with both platforms seen becoming multibillion-dollar businesses. That will be followed by its Oculus Rift virtual reality business and its WhatsApp messaging platform. “We see Facebook’s revenue growth visibility being enhanced by Instagram this year, Messenger in 2017, and more mass-market virtual reality and maybe WhatsApp by 2018,” wrote Rosenblatt Securities analyst Martin Pyykkonen in a research note Wednesday. He estimates Instagram’s ad revenue will reach $1 billion this year. “It’s still very early, but Messenger could become that single app interface for multiple mobile payments and be a competitive issue for the likes of PayPal ( PYPL ), Square ( SQ ) and credit card companies,” he wrote. Cowen analyst John Blackledge wrote in a research note that, given Messenger’s sheer user scale, it could potentially be another transformational platform for Facebook. Messenger has 900 million users, up from 800 million in January. “Facebook will continue to follow its proven playbook of building great products, achieving scale and then building ecosystems around those products/apps in order to monetize,” Blackledge wrote. Facebook Messenger Can Be Added Feature For Ads Facebook provided a glimpse as to how it might monetize Messenger at the F8 conference. Examples included businesses placing an ad on Facebook and then, when the ad is clicked, the user is taken over to Messenger, where that user can communicate with the company and transact on the platform. As widely expected, Zuckerberg announced a program for developers to write apps that are powered by artificial intelligence, known as chatbots. The digital assistants will help Messenger users communicate with businesses for services, perhaps to fix a problem or to buy goods. Demonstrations on how bots will be used by businesses included ordering flowers through the chatbot of 1-800-Flowers ( FLWS ). Facebook highlighted over 40 existing partnerships that included Shopify ( SHOP ) and Hyatt Hotels ( H ). While ads and promotions are not currently allowed in the bot platform, Facebook has begun testing “Sponsored Messages” in small groups. Facebook also said it will be able to earn revenue through “Click to Message” links in News Feed ads. Another major focus at the F8 conference is on live video streaming, which generates 10 times more comments than regular videos. Facebook is already pumping up revenue from standard video ads placed on its website. The addition of Facebook Live video will accelerate that opportunity. Blackledge estimates Facebook video revenue will hit $10 billion by 2021, up from $1.8 billion last year. Facebook Live is comparable to the Twitter ( TWTR ) Periscope app, which launched last year and has logged more than 100 million broadcasts. Twitter has integrated Periscope into the Twitter app feed. The vast majority of Facebook revenue comes from ads on its main website, but the company is looking to build on that with Instagram, Messenger and Live. “Messenger is clearly increasingly important, in our view, but its vision of the post-app world will be a challenge to pull off,” wrote Pacific Crest Securities analyst Evan Wilson in a research note. “It has a real opportunity with Live video in the near term.” Facebook stock was down more than 2%, near 108, in early afternoon trading in the stock market today . Facebook is set to report Q1 earnings after the market close on April 27. Analysts expect revenue will rise 48% from the year-earlier quarter to $5.25 billion, while earnings per share minus items also are expected to rise 48%, to 62 cents.