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6 Seeking Alpha Series

Summary Where Can I Find Safe Income For Retirement? The Future Of Seeking Alpha and Seeking Alpha On Day 1 & 2. 7 Fat Years Of Event-Driven Investing. Preparing For A Market Collapse. The #1 Stock In The World. Some topics require more than one article on more than one day. In some cases, reader comments drive a series in a new, unexpected direction. In order to make sure that you can find these series in their intended order, I am posting them here for your consideration. Thanks to Seeking Alpha for publishing them and to the readers for reading them and offering (oftentimes) thoughtful feedback. Where Can I Find Safe Income For Retirement? Executive summary This 3-part series attempts to answer the following question: what do you do if you do not want to rely on a paycheck? This is for anyone looking for safety who does not want to overpay in order to get steady investment income. The Future Of Seeking Alpha Executive summary This 2-part series explores the big changes taking place at Seeking Alpha, including new management and new premium services such as Sifting the World . Seeking Alpha On Day 1 & 2 Executive summary How should a new investor begin? How can you get the fullest use out of Seeking Alpha? This is what I have learns over my years of writing on SA and my lifetime of investing. 7 Fat Years Of Event-Driven Investing Executive Summary What have I done at Rangeley Capital for the past seven years? I focus on the annual investment ideas that I have disclosed publicly for the subsequent year. I discuss the results of those ideas as well as similar opportunities available in today’s market. Then I switch gears to consider the prospective opportunities for the next seven years. The commonality between these ideas is that they do not depend upon any tailwind from the overall equity markets. I expect no such tailwind in the years ahead. Preparing For A Market Collapse Executive summary In an uncertain world, you can protect yourself with cash savings and disciplined position sizing. The key to being prepared is to have redundancy in each of the systems that you rely upon. For some investors, shorting expensive, risky, and precarious stocks can add to safety. In addition to a number of individual securities, I offer my best ideas for a country, sector, and asset class to short. The series concluded with a discussion of key metrics to help reveal when the best time to short might be. The #1 Stock In The World Executive summary At today’s prices, what is the world’s best stock? This 2-part series explores counterparty selection, volatility, how I find ideas and what I do with them, as well as my top three current favorites. Share this article with a colleague

What If Everyone Indexed?

People generally think that more indexing will make the markets function less efficiently. I don’t think this is true at all. The fact that most index funds and ETFs are more tax- and fee-efficient than mutual funds does not mean they are necessarily less “active”. Most passive investing means there will be greater demand for active managers in the form of market makers and arbitrageurs. If everyone indexed, then that much more active market making would be required. I see this question more and more as indexing grows in popularity. People generally think that more indexing will make the markets function less efficiently. I don’t think this is true at all. Unfortunately, the question and its answers are usually shrouded in misunderstandings about how assets are priced and myths about what it means to invest “passively”. So, let’s think about this from an operational perspective. An index fund is not really an “index”. They are portfolios managed every day trying to track an index. These funds are managed actively, and involve hundreds, if not thousands, of decisions every year. The simplest example is the modern-day ETF, which is essentially a real-time version of what most people think of as an index fund. When you buy shares in an ETF, there is someone who is actively managing the allocation of funds (the same is true for an index mutual fund, though it’s less apparent in real-time, since the fund is not traded on an exchange). For instance, if the market price of an ETF were to deviate from the intraday indicative value, then the market makers would either buy/sell the ETF or buy/sell the underlying securities. So, while there doesn’t appear to be much activity on the surface, the very act of buying an index fund could actually force some active management in the underlying securities markets. In other words, your “passive” investment is the other side of the active management of the market maker or fund administrator.¹ It’s not a coincidence that high-frequency trading firms and big banks are making huge gobs of money during the rise of passive indexing. After all, passive indexing means that there is a greater need for those alternative forms of what is nothing more than “active” management. Unfortunately, the studies blasting active management usually include mutual fund managers and not the most active managers of them all – market makers and HFT firms. And make no mistake – these “active” operations are hugely profitable because they are essentially making “passive” portfolios available.² The kicker here is that index funds really aren’t passive at all. When you look at the underlying components of how the funds are actually managed, you realize that there’s a lot of activity in all of this. The fact that most index funds and ETFs are more tax- and fee-efficient than mutual funds does not mean they are necessarily less “active”, though. People misuse the term “passive indexing” on a near-daily basis now. And it’s the result of this desire to create a black-and-white view of the world, which is usually nothing more than a marketing pitch (something along the lines of – “We’re passive, so invest with us, because the misleading academic studies show that ‘active’ managers are dopes.”). The reality, however, is that there is really only active management and its varying degrees. Literally no one replicates a pre-fee and pre-tax index. Not a single investor. And your purchase and maintenance of a “passive” strategy will require a good deal of active upkeep. The bottom line is, most passive investing means there will be greater demand for active managers in the form of market makers and arbitrageurs. The ease of passive investing is made possible thanks to these active underlying elements. And that’s great, because it’s a win-win. Indexers get a low-fee and easy way to access markets. But they also bear the cost of their laziness (in numerous unseen ways), which is why making markets in index funds is hugely profitable. So, if everyone indexed, then that much more active market making would be required. End of story. ¹ – Read this fun paper on how ETFs work. ² – E.g., ever wonder how a big bank like Bank of America (NYSE: BAC ) can be profitable on 100% of its trading days in a quarter ? It’s thanks, in part, to passive indexers like me! “During the three months ended March 31, 2013, positive trading-related revenue was recorded for 100 percent, or 60 trading days, of which 97 percent (58 days) were daily trading gains of over $25 million.” (click to enlarge) Related: The Myth of Passive Investing

Greenblatt On Value Investing

Earlier this year Wharton released a video where Howard Marks interviewed Joel Greenblatt . It was a short interview packed with wisdom from the two value investors. Greenblatt first came across value investing after reading Ben Graham, which offered him a new perspective on investing. He defines value investing perfectly: Figure out what something is worth, pay a lot less, leaving a large margin of safety. He repeated this definition several times during the interview. Most people never get past the first part, but he offers two guarantees to those that do the work. “If they do good valuation work, the market will agree with them. I just don’t tell them when.” “In 90% of the cases for an individual stock, two or three years is enough for the market to recognize the value they see if they’ve done good work.” So good work and the conviction to wait a few years is required. This is why most people fail before they get started. Bad behavior creeps in. They expect too much, too soon, and quit before they get rewarded. The hardest part about investing is waiting. Indeed, Greenblatt’s students regularly tell him – but it was easier to make money when you started then it is today. He has two responses to this. The first is for special situations (Greenblatt literally wrote the book on special situations, titled You Can Be A Stock Market Genius – the worst title ever according to the author). These special situations are built for the small investor because most situations are too small to move the needle for large investors. People who get very good at analyzing businesses with special situations make a lot of money. Because of that, they get too big to play in that obscure area of the market, making room for new investors. His second response is toward technology and why value investing still works in an “efficient market”: Let’s go look at the most followed market in the world. That would be the United States. And let’s go look at the most followed stocks in the most followed market. That would be the S&P 500 stocks to a large extent…Take a look at the S&P 500. From 1996 to 2000, it doubled. From 2000 to 2002, it halved. From 2002 to 2007, it doubled. From 2007 to 2009, it halved. From 2009 till today, it’s basically tripled. That’s my way of saying people are still crazy. And that’s really an unfair thing to say because the S&P 500 is an average of 500 stocks. There’s huge dispersion going on within that average between stocks that are in favor, that people love emotionally, and stocks that people hate. So it’s really much worse than what I just described. There’s a huge dichotomy between things people like, people don’t, things that are out of favor…All this noise is going on within that average. That average is smoothing things . The S&P 500 offers a nice measure of “the market”. But we can’t forget it’s only a small subset of the total market, and mostly representative of large cap stocks. Being too reliant on the bigger picture, means you overlook everything not included in the index and miss what’s really going on in the market. Investing seems as though it’s harder today than the past, but investing was never easy. Investors’ behavior is the same as it ever was. If anything, technology has only made it easier to add a new layer of complexity to strategies and it definitely compounds the short-term mindset driving the market. If anything, that combination should make it easier for the most disciplined investors. Marks added this gem at the end to put it all into perspective: If you want to be exceptional as an investor you have to dare to be great…But to be great, you have to be different because if you think the same as everybody else you’ll take the same actions. If you take the same actions, you’ll have the same performance. You certainly can’t be exceptional if you follow the common course. So to be exceptional, you have to be different. You also have to dare to be wrong.