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FirstEnergy (FE) Charles E. Jones on Q1 2016 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

FirstEnergy Corp. (NYSE: FE ) Q1 2016 Earnings Call April 27, 2016 9:00 am ET Executives Meghan Geiger Beringer – Director-Investor Relations Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer Donald R. Schneider – President, FirstEnergy Solutions (NASDAQ: FES ), FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. Analysts Jonathan Philip Arnold – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Shahriar Pourreza – Guggenheim Securities LLC Neel Mitra – Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Brian J. Chin – Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC Kevin Prior – Evercore Group LLC Christopher J. Turnure – JPMorgan Securities LLC Stephen Calder Byrd – Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Ashar Hasan Khan – Visium Asset Management LP Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Capital (NYSE: USA ), Inc. Anthony C. Crowdell – Jefferies LLC Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs & Co. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Operator Greetings, and welcome to the FirstEnergy Corp.’s First Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ms. Meghan Beringer, Director, Investor Relations for FirstEnergy Corp. Thank you. You may begin. Meghan Geiger Beringer – Director-Investor Relations Thank you, Donna, and good morning. Welcome to FirstEnergy’s first quarter earnings call. Today, we will make various forward-looking statements regarding revenues, earnings, performance, strategies and prospects. These statements are based on current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by such statements can be found on the Investors section of our website under the Earnings Information link and in our SEC filings. We will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures are also available on the website. Please note that we have also provided a slide presentation that will follow this morning’s discussions. If you are currently on the Investor page of our website or plan to visit at a later time, you’ll notice that we have redesigned the site to provide a more user-friendly experience, particularly on mobile devices. Also based on your feedback, we created an Investor Materials section located on the Investor menu for easier access to information that you must frequently use. As for today’s call, those who are participating include Chuck Jones, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jim Pearson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Leila Vespoli, Executive Vice President, Markets and Chief Legal Officer; Donny Schneider, President of FirstEnergy Solutions; Jon Taylor, Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer; Steve Staub, Vice President and Treasurer; and Irene Prezelj, Vice President, Investor Relations. Now I’d like to turn the call over to Chuck Jones. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Thanks, Meghan. Good morning everyone. Thanks for joining us. We’re off to a strong start in 2016 and I’m pleased to share this update with you today. Yesterday afternoon, we reported solid operating earnings of $0.80 per share, which is at the midpoint of our first quarter guidance. On a GAAP basis, earnings were $0.78 per share. While Jim will review our financial results in more detail, I want to quickly mention that we produced quality results and met our operating earnings guidance, despite the impact of an unseasonably mild winter and low power prices. The successful implementation of our economic dispatch strategy was key to that outcome because the fuel savings that resulted from idling some units when market prices did not support them, helped to offset the other impacts of mild temperatures across the company, particularly in our Distribution business. In addition to meeting our financial commitments to you, we continue to implement our regulated growth strategies. We have several positive developments on that front, and we will provide more detail today on our next steps to ensure continued service reliability for our customers with appropriate recovery of our investments. Let’s start in Ohio, where the Public Utilities Commission completed a comprehensive nearly two-year review of our Powering Ohio’s Progress Electric Security Plan and unanimously approved the plan with certain modifications. The PUCO concluded that the approved plan promotes rate stability and retail competition and adds value for Ohio customers, communities and the environment. I would both like to compliment and thank our Public Utilities Commissioners and staff for their leadership and handling a very complex regulatory matter. I am proud of this ESP and of the entire team that worked on it. The plan helped to safeguard customers against rising energy prices in future years while preserving key power plants that serve Ohio customers ensuring fuel diversity and maintaining Ohio jobs. In addition, it outlined steps to support low income customers, reinstate energy efficiency programs, evaluate smart grid technologies, and includes a goal to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. It truly fulfills the principles that the Ohio legislature outlined for the Electric Security Plans when they moved the state toward retail competition. Currently, it’s been a long and conscientious process to get to this point and while PUCO approval is a critical milestone, there are still challenges at FERC. Our opponents have also expressed their intent to bring court challenges. I will quickly review our position on these issues and Leila can address your additional questions during the Q&A. First, we believe FERC should affirm the waiver that is already in place. You’ll recall that FES was granted authorization from FERC to conduct certain transactions with our Ohio utilities in 2008. Our Purchase Power Agreement is one of those transactions. It was carefully constructed from the beginning to comply with existing FERC rules that promote customer shopping for retail energy supply and it will not hinder the PJM markets ability to function and foster competition. A separate complaint asked FERC to impose a price for on the PPA units for the May 2016 PJM, RPM capacity auction. We don’t believe there’s any reason for our PPA units to be treated differently than any of the other regulated generation in PJM. It’s no secret that a significant amount of generation, both regulated and merchant has been offered into prior PJM options with price taking behavior. Some of these complaints are likely in that group of suppliers. What they are asking FERC to do is essentially have FirstEnergy protect them from themselves. We have filed a strong answer demonstrating that a price floor is not needed and challenging the economic theory behind the opposition’s price floor methodology. And we do not expect that FERC will impose a price floor on the PPA units for the upcoming auction. With regards to the other potential challenges, we believe that the PUCOs decision is well within the Commission’s authority and we expect it will withstand subsequent challenges. Furthermore, the notion of non-bypassable charges on Ohio utility bills is not new, as charges for programs such as energy efficiency, economic development and low income support, as well as cost to support the bulk Transmission System have been in place for years. Given that FERC could make an announcement on the issues before them very soon, we are holding off on providing a second quarter operating earnings guidance. Once we do have additional clarity from FERC, we expect to have a better picture of our full-year 2016 outlook, and we will offer you further details and guidance. I know this decision may seem inconsistent with our stated objective to improve transparency and disclosures. We remain committed to giving you the information you need to evaluate our company when we know it. DSP is simply too significant to speculate on its outcome. While we do anticipate filing for a rehearing on the ESP IV by May 2, to address a few items of clarification, we’re moving forward to implement the PPA that was entered into on April 1. As you know, our Regulated Generation Group has experienced selling the output for Mon Powers regulated units at Fort Martin and Harrison into PJM. They’re using that experience and have retained a leading industry consultant to help prepare strategies and offer formation for the Davis-Besse and Sammis Plants in advance of the May, PJM capacity auction. The regulated team plans to sell the output from Davis-Besse and Sammis into PJM as of June 1. We’re also laying the groundwork to meet the provisions outlined in the terms of the ESP IV. In late February, we submitted our grid modernization business plan, which outlined the menu of options for the PUCO. We also filed our Energy Efficiency Plan with the Commission earlier this month and by November 1, we will file a carbon reduction report that outlines our fuel diversification and carbon reduction strategies. In the ESP, we proposed a CO2 reduction goal of at least 90% below 2005 levels by 2045, building on the 25% reduction in CO2 emissions already achieved across our footprint. This goal represents a potential reduction of more than 80 million tons of CO2 emissions and is among the most aggressive targets in the utility industry. In support of our commitment to a cleaner energy future, we launched a branding campaign in February called The Switch is On. This campaign highlights our environmental achievements, transition to a cleaner energy sources, and our Green electricity options. Earlier this month, we entered into a unique Green energy pact with the Cleveland Indians to provide Progressive Field with 100% Green-e certified wind energy from FirstEnergy Solutions. We also introduced an Earth Day promotion inviting Ohio and Pennsylvania residents to sign up for 100% wind energy at the same price as the standard energy offer. Turning to other regulatory matters, our proposed Mid-Atlantic Interstate Transmission subsidiary known as MAIT, received FERC approval in late February. As we have discussed, this subsidiary would hold the transmission assets of Met-Ed, Penelec and JCP&L, and facilitate new investments that can improve service reliability for these customers. Earlier this month, the Pennsylvania ALJs issued an initial decision approving a settlement filed by the parties resolving all issues in this case. We anticipate final approval from the Pennsylvania PUC by mid-year. And last week, we made a supplemental filing in New Jersey seeking to transfer certain JCP&L distribution assets into MAIT, which we believe should satisfy the concerns regarding public utility status that were addressed by the BPU in February. We will continue to work with the BPU because we believe transferring these assets to MAIT is the right thing to do for our New Jersey customers. As we mentioned in February, we have passed the halfway point of the first phase of our Energizing the Future transmission investment program with $2.4 billion invested through 2015 on projects designed to make our system more robust, secure, and resistant to extreme weather events. This program remains on track, and we continue to view the Transmission business as our primary growth platform for many years to come. Over the past two years, we have been focused on removing regulatory uncertainty and positioning our regulated businesses for growth. Tomorrow, we plan to file rate cases for JCP&L and our four Pennsylvania utilities that are consistent with our goals of enhancing customer service and reliability, strengthening the distribution system, improving security, and adding resiliency and operating flexibility to our infrastructure, while providing stability and growth for the company. In Pennsylvania, our four utilities will file rate plans with the Public Utilities Commission aimed at extending the service reliability improvement efforts that have yielded significant results for more than 2 million customers. Since 2011, the number of power outage impacting our Pennsylvania customers has decreased by an average of about 27%, while restoration times have improved by an average of about 14% in that same period. In total, our request would result in an expected revenue increase totaling $430 million across four Pennsylvania utilities, and we’ve broken down the impact by operating company in the Appendix of our slide presentation. These changes would bring the average monthly bills in line with the typical residential bills for the other three major electric utilities in the state, while benefiting customers by modernizing the grid with smart technologies, increased vegetation management activities and continuing customer service enhancements. Pending PUC approval, we anticipate that the new rates will take effect in January of 2017. The new base rates at the Pennsylvania utilities would also include recovery of costs associated with our long term infrastructure improvement plans, which include a projected increase in capital investments of $245 million over five years to help strengthen, upgrade and modernize our Pennsylvania distribution systems. We expect to begin recovering the cost of those programs in July through the distribution system improvement charges that are currently pending Pennsylvania PUC approval. We also plan to file a rate plan with the New Jersey BPU that supports and builds on the significant service reliability improvements made by JCP&L in recent years. The planned $142-million rate request seeks to improve service and benefit customers by supporting equipment maintenance, vegetation management and inspections of lines, poles and substations, while also compensating for other business and operating expenses. The JCP&L plan is designed to extend the service reliability improvements and helped the utility achieve its best service reliability record in more than a decade last year. While JCP&L’s rates have remained stable and even declined over the past decade, our operating expenses have continued to increase. Since July 2012, JCP&L has invested $612 million in service-related enhancement projects. And even with the proposed 6% overall rate increase for the average residential customer, JCP&L would continue to offer the lowest residential electric rates among the four regulated electric distribution companies in New Jersey. You will remember that our last rate case in New Jersey, which was based on a 2011 test year, was complicated due to storm recovery expense issues and other items. In the upcoming proceeding, which satisfies the BPU requirement that we file a new rate case by April of 2017, we hope for a reasonable timeline in recognition of the significant investments we have made. Allowing for a thorough review of our filing, we will request the new rates to go into effect in January of 2017. We remain focused on continuing to position our company for growth and success to best serve our customers, communities, investors and employees. Now, I would turn the call over to Jim for his review of the quarter. And as always, we will have plenty of time for your questions at the end of his remarks. James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Thanks, Chuck, and good morning, everyone. I will remind you that detailed information about the quarter can be found in the consolidated report that was posted to our website yesterday evening. And as always, we welcome your questions during the Q&A or following the call. I’m sure you have also noticed that we did not publish a full FactBook this quarter. We hope to have greater clarity to regarding the PPA shortly, which would hopefully allow us to have an analyst meeting and provide full guidance for 2016. In place of the FactBook, we have included an Appendix to the slides for today’s call with certain regulatory and financial updates we would normally publish each quarter. Our first-quarter operating earnings of $0.80 per share compares to $0.62 per share in the first quarter of 2015. On a GAAP basis, we recorded earnings of $0.78 per share for the first quarter of 2016, compared to $0.53 per basic share during the same period last year. 2016 first quarter GAAP results include special items totaling $0.02 per share, which includes regulatory charges primarily related to economic development and energy efficiency programs associated with the Ohio ESP commitments, offset by mark-to-market gains on commodity contracts. A full listing of the special items can be found on page two of the consolidated report. In our Distribution business, results were impacted primarily by mild temperatures on distribution deliveries and lower rates in New Jersey that went into effect in 2015, partially offset by the benefit of Pennsylvania rates that were also implemented last year. Total distribution deliveries decreased 7.8% compared to the first quarter of 2015 with a 13.4% decrease in residential sales and a 5.1% decrease in commercial sales, reflecting heating degree days that were 25% below last year and 11% below normal. On a weather adjusted basis, residential deliveries were essentially flat while commercial deliveries decreased 1.6%. Sales to industrial customers decreased 2.8%. We do continue to see growth in shale gas sector but the rate has slowed dramatically in the past two years and is not enough to offset lower usage from steel and coal mining activity. First-quarter Industrial load was off nearly 110 gigawatt hours as a result of reduced operations at Republic Steel, which then announced an indefinite shutdown on April 1 and a permanent closure of Warren Steel. Overall, our sales are following the national trend that was noted by the Energy Information Association earlier this year. Whether-adjusted residential and commercial sales are each down more than 1% over the past four quarters while industrial load is down 3% in that timeframe. Drivers include the impact of more efficient lighting, appliances and equipment and slowing and shifting economic growth. In our Transmission business, operating earnings increased as a result of the higher rate base at ATSI, partially offset by the lower return on equity that was part of ATSI’s comprehensive settlement approved by FERC last fall. In our Competitive business, strong first quarter earnings reflect an increase in commodity margin, which primarily benefited from higher capacity revenues driven by increased capacity prices, as well as lower purchased power expense, higher wholesale sales and lower fossil fuel expense. These factors offset lower contract sales volume, which decreased in line with our hedging strategy. The decrease in fossil fuel expense relates to lower fuel rigs, and as Chuck indicated earlier, it also reflects the benefits for our economic dispatch strategy, which kept the Bruce Mansfield Plant offline for part of February and March. This strategy is the right approach at this time and we will continue to deploy it if markets don’t support plant operations. Clearly, this remains a very challenging business environment for our competitive units as prices continue to drop. Although we’re not updating our CES adjusted EBITDA guidance at this time. We know that a reduction of about $3 per megawatt-hour in the round-the-clock prices since the beginning of this year translates into a reduction of more than $50 million in wholesale revenue. Our committed sales are about 62 million megawatt-hours for 2016 with an additional 12 million megawatt-hours as part of the Ohio PPA. In 2017, we have 42 million megawatt-hours committed with an additional 20 million megawatt-hours for the Ohio PPA. We are reaffirming our expectations that the Competitive business will be cash flow positive each year through at least 2018. And finally, in Corporate, a higher consolidated income tax rate and other expenses reduced operating earnings by $0.02 per share compared to the first quarter of 2015. As Chuck said, we’re off to a very solid start in 2016, and we’re encouraged by the developments in Ohio and remain committed to providing customer-focused growth and creating long-term value for our shareholders. Now, I’d like to open the call up for your questions. Question-and-Answer Session Operator Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. Our first question is coming from Jonathan Arnold of Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question. Jonathan Philip Arnold – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Good morning guys. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Good morning. James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Good morning. Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer Good morning. Jonathan Philip Arnold – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Could you give us a sense of what the drivers for the rate increase – the rate request in Pennsylvania and New Jersey are? I hear the comment that your rates are going to be – and it’ll bring rates up to the average. But just what the big drivers are? And then maybe a sense of where the ROEs are tracking in the – to its various jurisdictions as you make these filings? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Jonathan, this is Jim. Let me take a shot at it and then I’ll let Leila get into more detail if we need. First off, we’re going to have an increase in our rate base. So, that will be part of it. We also have increased depreciation expense associated with our investments. We’re also rolling in the DISC rider as part of this increase. We have smart meters and also there has been a decrease in sales, so that’s going to be part of the driver there. So, those are primarily the major drivers. As I would say that there was not a defined ROE last year in the Pennsylvania case. So, it’s hard to say if we’re tracking to that. But, overall, I’d say our earnings in Pennsylvania are doing well, but because of these significant investments as well as the decrease in sales and the DISC rider, that is leading to the increase. And Leila, I don’t know if you have anything to add to that? Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer Just one further point of clarification with respect to the – on the depreciation comment, and we’re actually proposing a changed methodology in depreciation that’s just driving some of that change. Jonathan Philip Arnold – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Is that just in Pennsylvania or in both? Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer Correct. Correct. Jonathan Philip Arnold – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Okay. Is that a meaningful piece of it or just one of many? Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer With regard to depreciation, it’s roughly $31 million of the change. Jonathan Philip Arnold – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Okay. All right. Thanks. So it sounds like, in general, this is not about returns. It’s more about investments and the other things you listed. James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer That’s correct, Jonathan. Okay. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director And Jonathan I have said all along that as we continue to move this company more towards a regulated model and we prepare for growth in our T&D operations, you’re going to see more and more rate increases or rate cases in order to accommodate that growth. Jonathan Philip Arnold – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. So fair enough. I think I had a 6% number mentioned for New Jersey. Did you provide a percentage on the Pennsylvania jurisdictions? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer It’s – I think that’s included in the Appendix Jonathan and when we break down all four of the Pennsylvania companies you have that rate increase. Jonathan Philip Arnold – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Right, we’ll see that, and thank you. And then one final thing, you commented that you’re going to wait until you have clarity from FERC on giving Q2 guidance. But more broadly if, let’s say, FERC doesn’t act ahead of the upcoming auction and maybe there’s a longer delay there, how should we think about this in the context of when you might have an Analyst Day and a broader update to the outlook? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Well, I think that our game plan is to wait and see what FERC does. If it drags on too long, then my expectation is we’ll give you a guidance for 2016 without the ESP baked into it. That would be our plan. I don’t expect that this is going to drag on a long time. There’s a lot of speculation out there that they’ll make a decision before the May RPM. That doesn’t bother me so much if they don’t because a lot of the opponent’s cases suggesting that we’re going to do something inappropriate in how we bid these units. And once they see how we bid these units, then I think that would diffuse a lot of that argument. So if it waits until after the RPM, that wouldn’t bother me too much. But beyond that, I think if it continues to go on and we are going to give you guidance for 2016 without the ESP. Jonathan Philip Arnold – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. So we should probably anticipate by early summer, you’ll be doing that then in any event? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Yes. Jonathan Philip Arnold – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Okay, great. Thank you, guys. Operator Thank you. Our next question is coming from Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates. Please proceed with your question. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Good morning, guys. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Hi, Paul. James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Good morning. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Just a sort of follow-up on Jonathan’s question and your answer, should we – it seems to suggest that perhaps your bidding behavior would be the same with or without the PPA. Is that an accurate or that there wouldn’t be that big of a difference, how should we think about that? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Well, we’re not going to talk about our bidding behavior. But I think it is something that FERC can look at. If they just look at how we bid our West Virginia plants in the last RFP or actually in – since capacity performance, they could see a very good indication of how we bid units on the regulated side. We haven’t disclosed that bidding behavior and we don’t plan to. But my point is this. I don’t think that – I think there’s a lot of rhetoric going on about how these PPAs might affect the capacity market. It’s nothing, but rhetoric. This PPA has no impact on the PJM market whatsoever. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Okay. And then, in terms of your expectation that they will probably take action before the auction, which is coming right up, is that with respect to all three cases or – excuse me – to the both cases for you, or one in particular? Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer Hi, Paul, this is Leila. Given the high profile, I guess my view on this would be that they would be looking at both these cases before the Base Residual Auction. Just to give clarity, from the way I view the world, if you think about the affiliate waiver case, if I’m the chairman, he looks at things from a legalistic standpoint. I kind of view things that same way. And so I have a case in front of me where there’s strong precedence not to look behind the screen if you were to what the states are doing. He has – in the initial 2008 waiver, there was a claim by Nopak that non-bypassable charges should be looked at and should cause him to say that there’re not – not all the customers – that there are captive customers. They chose not to make that finding. So to go against this and grant the complaint, he would have to go against legal precedent. I don’t see him doing that and I think he would want to get that out of the way and that’s tied to Mon Power complaint because fundamentally they’re kind of looking to address, call it the same issue. And if you look at the Mon Power complaint, there are a lot of parties with – that wait in with a lot of different potential remedies. And I don’t think they’re going to fall prey to the hyperbole, especially out there by Dynegy that there is a burning platform that there is imminent danger. If they’re going to want to act and give clarity and take their time and look at this. So from my standpoint, I think they’re going to want to act on the waiver, I think they are going to deny the complaint because I think it’s – to do otherwise would be inconsistent with past precedent. They can take care of the issues supposedly involved in that complaint, in the Mon Power complaint, but they can do so in a very thoughtful way by addressing it through the stakeholder process what they are used to dealing with it and taking care of it in the next – for the next BRA auction in 2017. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Okay. Great. Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer I just wanted to give clarity to the market in that regard. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC That makes sense. And then just finally, I apologize if I missed this. The $0.09 charge – regarding the regulatory charge, what was that associated with? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer The regulatory charge, that was primarily the commitment we made under the ESP, and that’s associated with some energy efficiency commitments, as well as some low income and some economic development. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC And it’s a one-timer? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer It’s a one-timer. Since we committed to make those payments, so we’re required to recognize that at the time of the commitment. It is a liability to us. Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates LLC Thanks so much. Thank you. Operator Thank you. Our next question is coming from Shahriar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners. Please proceed with your question Shahriar Pourreza – Guggenheim Securities LLC Good morning. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Hi, Shahriar. Shahriar Pourreza – Guggenheim Securities LLC Could we just write-off just a couple of policy questions, here? Can we touch on what we’re hearing a little bit on Chairman Porter’s potential resignation? The timing is a little bit suspect and it’s a crucial period. Could we get some clarity there? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Well, I will give you my comments. I think that Chairman Porter showed outstanding leadership during the time he was at the Commission. You know, he got a very important docket moved forward. Hate to see him go, but as you know how it goes. When job opportunities present themselves, you don’t get to pick the timing of them. So he called me the other day and we had a good conversation, and I don’t think you should read anything into it other than what was said. Shahriar Pourreza – Guggenheim Securities LLC Got it. Okay, that’s helpful. And then maybe a question directed to Leila. So the Supreme Court ruling in Maryland obviously net-net most saw it as a negative, but obviously some of the Justices gave some guidance around what would be from a legal standpoint possible. They clearly drew some distinctions between Maryland and New Jersey versus what you’re proposing in Ohio. So I’d like to get maybe your opinion here on what you thought of the Supreme Court ruling. Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer So net-net, I actually think it’s quite positive. So you may recall the Maryland case was out there when we first constructed the PPA. So we knew we were kind of threading the needle with regard to that, and I think that the Supreme Court’s decision confirms that we did a good job of that. The decision in and of itself does not negatively impact it. In fact, if you look at one of the footnotes, they go into a long detailed description of the traditional bilateral contract, which mirrors directly our PPA. So from a structure standpoint, if you think about it, through that footnote, they signaled that the structure of the PPA is something that is out there in the market and that they feel comfortable with. So structurally, I think it meets the test. And then if you go back to the EPSA case, albeit (33:57) they made a statement that insulating retail customers from price fluctuations is something that fell under state authority. So if what the Commission’s purpose was was appropriate per EPSA and the structure is appropriate per the Hughes decision, I think again those two together present us a very strong case with regard to any Federal District Court case that might be brought our way. Shahriar Pourreza – Guggenheim Securities LLC Got it. So it’s just fair to say that if something if you get a negative outcome at FERC and this does gets taken up by the Supreme Court, it’s a pretty good standing. Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer I think it’s an excellent standing. Thank you. Shahriar Pourreza – Guggenheim Securities LLC Excellent. Okay good. And just one last question, Chuck, on, sort of, having had an update on the equity. But if FERC decides to take up this case, and this, sort of, gets drawn out a little bit, how should we, sort of, think about your equity needs? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director I think you should think about it the way I have been answering it for the last year-and-a-half. And that is we can’t make a determination until we have all of these answers, and I don’t expect that it’s going to be a lengthy FERC process. So – and my position from the beginning has been – it’s our obligation to structure this company and operate it in a way where we could get our credit issues behind us without having to use equity to do that. We’re talking to you about a lot of growth opportunities on the regulated distribution and transmission side. Assuming we get successfully done with MAIT, that opens up more transmission investment. And I’m not going to be embarrassed to tell you we want to use equity to help grow this company going forward. But the amount and the timing – I’m not ready to discuss. Shahriar Pourreza – Guggenheim Securities LLC Excellent. Thanks so much. Operator Thank you. Our next question is coming from Neel Mitra of Tudor, Pickering. Please proceed with your question. Neel Mitra – Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Hi. Good morning. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Good morning. Neel Mitra – Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. I had a general question on the distribution strategy going forward. With lower sales growth, is the strategy to continue to file regular rate cases to compensate you for the increased spend or, in some jurisdictions are you looking to implement some sort of formula rate plans like you are with the DISC mechanism in Pennsylvania? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Well, I would answer that we have five different distribution strategies. We serve in five states. They all have different regulatory treatments. Under the Ohio ESP, we have an extension of the DCR through the term. We also have a new treatment for smart grid and smart meter type investments. So there is a different regulatory strategy in Ohio than in Pennsylvania. In Pennsylvania, we’ve got the LTIP and the DISC. And, obviously, we’re filing for rate cases there and in New Jersey. In West Virginia, we had a case last year where, if we get to a position where we need another case, we’ll file it. And in Maryland, quite frankly, the growth in load has been commensurate with our investments. And there has been no need to file a case there. So I think it’s five different strategies. Overall, though, I would tell you the strategy is to start making the investments needed to improve the service to our customers beyond where we’re at, to provide more security to the distribution network, and, basically, make investments to serve our customers better, and then do them in a way where we can communicate to you how we’re going to get the returns. Neel Mitra – Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Got it. And then my second question was on the competitive generation side and the sensitivity to the open position. Can you remind us roughly how many terawatt hours or what percentage of your expected generation that you plan to keep open in any given year? Donald R. Schneider – President, FirstEnergy Solutions ( FES ), FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. Yeah. This is Donny, Neel. Without the PPA, we have – our FactBook would show we have about 17 terawatt-hours open for 2016. I think Jim talked about the fact that a $3 move on that 17 terawatt-hours would be about a $50-million impact. With the PPA, if the PPA goes forward, we actually chew up some of that open position, as we look through the end of 2016. Neel Mitra – Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Okay. Okay. Got it. And then just last point of clarification on Pennsylvania. You say you’re going to implement the DISC structure with this rate case. Would that help basically lengthen out the period between rate cases? Or is that just for a small portion of the distribution spend going forward? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Actually the DISC – we have filed for the DISC effective July 1 to start treating the first investments in our Long Term Infrastructure Plan. And under this rate case, any DISC expenditures after that point would be rolled into the base rates, and then we have the option going forward to then use the DISC in real-time to recover investments in the Long Term Infrastructure Plan in the outyears. So, we file to invest $245 million over the next five years. So, we’re going to use both. Neel Mitra – Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Got it. Thank you. Operator Thank you. Our next question is coming from Brian Chin of Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question. Brian J. Chin – Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc. Good morning. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Good morning. Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer Hey, Brian. Good morning. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Good morning. Brian how are you doing? Brian J. Chin – Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc. Very good. Very good. I just wanted to follow-up on the early equity issuance question just in a little bit more specific way. Can you provide your latest thoughts on timing or amount with regards to equity issuance just for Transmission purposes? And particularly if FERC is going to be delaying its response to the PPA question, does it make sense to potentially separate your equity issuance for transmission and not make that contingent on timing for FERC? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Well, so I’ve talked about in my comments the fact that we’re halfway through energizing the future; we’ve invested $2.4 billion in our Transmission over the last two years with no equity. And during a time that we were working to kind of strengthen our cash flows in order to improve our credit metrics. We’ve got two more years of that program at about $1 billion a year. I don’t see any equity needed to fund that Transmission growth. Going forward, if we plan to expand our Transmission investment program or expand significantly what we’re doing in the distribution, then any equity needs would be associated with increased investment in T&D. So, I answered the same way we’re not prepared to say what that amount is, but I don’t think you need to be worried about energizing the future being taken off-track in any case. Brian J. Chin – Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc. Very good. Thanks. That’s all I’ve got. Operator Thank you. Our next question is coming from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of UBS. Please proceed with your question. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC Hi. Good morning. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Hey, Julien. Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer Good morning. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC Hey. So, following up perhaps where we started on the rate cases, can you remind us where we stand on earned ROEs in kind of a trailing basis for 2015? Just I suppose speaking to the rate case filing itself for whatever you have out there, both New Jersey and Pennsylvania. And perhaps on a prospective basis, the purpose for the case, at least New Jersey, seems to be recovering O&M, and then separately Pennsylvania seems principally driven by the implementation of the DISC and spending investments there, is that kind of good (42:21) them respectively? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Julien, this is Jim. I would say that in Pennsylvania, it’s primarily driven by somewhat the decrease in the load. It’s part of the DISC filing that we have. There’s also additional investments that we’ve made there. We’ve got a very large smart meter implementation program going on over there. So that’s primarily what’s driving that in Pennsylvania. You’re also able to file on the forward-looking test year. When I look at New Jersey, it’s primarily driven by a significant amount of investment that we’ve made since the last test year in New Jersey, and that was 2011. And as we said in our remarks since July of 2012, we’ve had a significant amount of capital investment. And why we say partway through 2012, because in the test year New Jersey you’re allowed to claim in-service amounts for six months after the in-service date. So we’ve had a significant amount of investment in New Jersey, so that’s what’s driving that. Again, as far as our overall return on equity within each of the states, I would say that we’re probably tracking right around where we should, based on the last rate proceedings. However, as you know, in Pennsylvania, they did not publish what the ROE was in the settlement. Leila L. Vespoli – Executive Vice President, Markets & Chief Legal Officer Julien, this is Leila. The only thing that I would add when you’re thinking about Pennsylvania, think about aggressive energy efficiency measures and no lost distribution recovery. So when Jim was talking about the lower revenue, those factors play into that. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC Got it. And then, turning to the equity piece of the equation, just to be clear on setting expectations, we shouldn’t expect to hear from you on equity until you get a definitive decision to either reject or accept the waiver – well, not the waiver, but the decision outright from FERC, and no action from the credit rating agencies correspondingly until that’s well (44:46). Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Correct. I would say, yes. Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Securities LLC Okay, great. Thank you, guys. Operator Thank you. Our next question is coming from Greg Gordon of Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question. Kevin Prior – Evercore Group LLC Hi. This is actually Kevin. Other than the PPA, are there any other uncertainties or hurdles that would prevent you from giving guidance in the early summer? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director No. Kevin Prior – Evercore Group LLC Okay. And if the FERC was to uphold the contracts, but it ended up going to the Ohio Supreme Court, would you still plan to implement the contracts on June 1, or would it then be delayed? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director We plan to implement them on June 1. Kevin Prior – Evercore Group LLC No matter what challenges there. Okay. That’s all I have. Thanks. Operator Thank you. Our next question is coming from the Chris Turnure of JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question. Christopher J. Turnure – JPMorgan Securities LLC Good morning. I was wondering if we could talk a little bit about the supply side of the business. And ex the PPA, if you just look at the performance over the past couple of quarters, I think specifically, excluding the change in capacity prices and excluding the change in the volume. You’ve had a pretty noticeable improvement there, despite decline in commodity prices. Maybe you could just flush that out a little bit more and give us a color there. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director So, I’ll start and then I’ll let Donny add to it. During 2015, we talked with you about our cash flow improvement program. Much of that was focused on the Competitive business. And much of that was focused on getting our Competitive business to the point where it continues to be cash flow positive and it has no need for any cash from the parent through 2018 at current energy prices as we know them. So part of that was also targeted at the FFO from the Generation business. So we reduced O&M expenditures, which contributed to some of what you’re seeing there. So that’s kind of from an operational perspective, the thing that Jim Lash and his Generation team have done to improve the competitiveness of that business. I will let Donny talk a little bit about the Commodity side. Donald R. Schneider – President, FirstEnergy Solutions ( FES ), FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. Yes, I’d just add, obviously we have taken a position starting after the polar vortex in 2014 to derisk the business and to move away from weather sensitive load. You’ll recall in the first quarter of 2015 we had what’s been referred to as the Siberian Express and while it was not nearly as significant of an impact to FES as the polar vortex, it’s still have some impact. I’m happy to report this past quarter, although we had very mild weather, the fact that we have much less weather sensitive load, are results were pretty much in line with our expectations from a sales perspective. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Donny and his team are doing a fantastic job running the business too. Back in February when we had Mansfield off for two weeks, the entire plant off, there were several seller side notes that suggested that, meant that load was down and we’re going to have a bad quarter. In reality, that’s part of how we’re dispatching is those units differently. So we don’t run them when we can’t make money with them. So I talked in my remarks about that save this fuel. So Donny is doing a great job at looking at every day, every hour, how do we maximize that business under some very difficult economic times. Christopher J. Turnure – JPMorgan Securities LLC Okay. I mean, to that point is there anything that we should think about historically that’s forced you to run units that were uneconomic, such as mandatory take-or-pay coal contracts or something of that nature that would be rolling off this year or in the future, to kind of provided a tailwind for your numbers all else equal or I might barking up the wrong tree there? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Go ahead Donny. Donald R. Schneider – President, FirstEnergy Solutions ( FES ), FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. Yeah. I mean, we’ve had coal contracts in place for a lot of years. It gives us significant flexibility. This isn’t really something new for us. I think the degree is much greater now, but you’ll recall back in – I believe it was 2012 – around August 2012, we took the entire Sammis Plant down and kept it offline through December. So it’s not really new. I think the difference is with the weak – incredibly weak forward day ahead market that we are seeing, it calls in more economic dispatch than perhaps what we had seen in the past. Christopher J. Turnure – JPMorgan Securities LLC Okay, great. And then shifting gears to transmission again, the rejection by New Jersey of your utility status for that MAIT request would seem on the surface to be a significant setback. But your comments have indicated that you’re going to continue to push forward, and you think it’s very important. Could you maybe characterize how important the New Jersey part of MAIT program is to the overall transmission spend kind of levels going forward and growth going forward, and the timing now that you have had this setback, if it’s been adjusted at all in New Jersey (50:18)? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Yes. So, first I would say, I think MAIT is very important to our customers in New Jersey. And we have to do a better job of helping the BPU understand why it is important. We’ve done that in our latest filing and will continue to work with them to get it across the finish line. If we don’t, then we’ll look at options to implement MAIT in Pennsylvania potentially. But as far as your real question in terms of how does it affect or transmission investment strategy, we’ve got two more years of energizing the future. We’ve got projects beyond that inside ATSI and TrAILCo that we can continue to move forward with. I don’t see MAIT been crucial at all to our transmission investment strategy. I see it as a way to implement that transmission investment strategy in a way where we can lower the cost of capital and do it in a way that’s better for customers and create more transparency for our investors. That’s how I see it. Christopher J. Turnure – JPMorgan Securities LLC Great. Thanks, Chuck. Operator Thank you. Our next question is coming from Stephen Byrd of Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question. Stephen Calder Byrd – Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Hi. Good morning. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Good morning, Stephen. Stephen Calder Byrd – Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Most of my questions have been addressed. I just wanted to focus on the Pennsylvania revenue request. When I look at the Appendix, it looks like the customer bill impacts can be relatively significant. I think one of the jurisdictions, it’s about 18%, if I’m reading the page correctly. Is there a way to phase that out in order to otherwise lessen the overall bill impact, and are there other precedents we can look to in Pennsylvania in terms of just how to think about that, that it looks like a fairly sizeable rate impact? James F. Pearson – Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Stephen, this is Jim. I would say that, as we said earlier in our comments and Chuck said, it is that this will bring the average residential bill in Pennsylvania up to – about what’s average within the state. You’ll recall we went a number of years without increasing our rates in the State of Pennsylvania. It’s also being offset by a – from a customer perspective, it’s being offset by a reduction in their overall energy component of the bill. So, I don’t view this as something it’s going to be what would be described as a rate shock issue. As far as your earlier request, no I don’t – we don’t see any mechanism out there where we would phase this in. This is just a normal type of request that we would have. And again as Leila pointed out earlier, there is very stringent energy efficiency requirements in the State of Pennsylvania, which is decreasing the usage. So we’re required to go in and file for these rates. So that’s the way we’re looking at it. Stephen Calder Byrd – Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Understood. And in terms of the magnitude of the benefit from lower energy costs, is there a way for us to get a sense for the magnitude of that benefit? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director I think you could probably look at where wholesale power prices have gone over the last few years. And as Donny mentioned, wholesale power prices have fallen $3.00 already this year. So I think there was a period of time when around-the-clock power prices were in the $50-plus range, and if you look at the forwards out there right now, over the next three years, they’re probably closer to the $30 range. Stephen Calder Byrd – Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Understood. Great, thank you very much. Operator Thank you. Our next question is coming from Ashar Khan of Visium. Please proceed with your question. Ashar Hasan Khan – Visium Asset Management LP Good morning, and congrats. One thing I was just wanted to help in terms of trying to measure these rate cases in terms of earnings potential. Is there some way you could give us what the increase in kind of rate base would be from kind of like what you have in your numbers this year versus – because it’s a forward test year next year, could you signify the increase in rate base for the two jurisdictions? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director I will answer it at a high level, and if you want details, then I’ll let Leila and Jim fill in. But as filed, in effect January of next year, the JCP&L case is about $0.20 a share and the Pennsylvania cases combined are about $0.40 a share. Ashar Hasan Khan – Visium Asset Management LP Okay. That’s very helpful. And that was my question. Thank you so much. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Okay. Thanks Ashar. Operator Thank you. Our next question is coming from Angie Storozynski of Macquarie. Please proceed with your questions. Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Capital ( USA ), Inc. Thank you. I have only one question. So when I look at the plans covered by the PPA, say, in 2016, can you tell us if the assets the plans have a positive EPS contribution without the PPA? Donald R. Schneider – President, FirstEnergy Solutions ( FES ), FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. Angie, this is Donny. Let me make sure I understand your question. So you’re asking if Sammis and Davis-Besse have a positive earnings contribution without the PPA? Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Capital ( USA ), Inc. Yeah. So basically, when you showed us the EBITDA and then a bridge to net income or EPS, for SES – or CES without the PPAs, can you tell us the assets of those three plans or two plans that are covered by PPAs, so without the PPA would they have a positive EPS impact? Donald R. Schneider – President, FirstEnergy Solutions ( FES ), FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. Yes. For 2016, Sammis and Davis-Besse would definitely both have positive earnings per share impact. Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Capital ( USA ), Inc. How about 2017 or 2018 based on the current forwards on capacity payments? Donald R. Schneider – President, FirstEnergy Solutions ( FES ), FirstEnergy Solutions Corp. I don’t think we’re giving any guidance on forward years, Angie. Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Capital ( USA ), Inc. Because I mean, we are all struggling I think with the impact of your PPAs on your bottom line because we just don’t know what’s the offset from the current earnings power of these assets. That’s why I am asking? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director I understand you are struggling with it, and I understand that the estimates are all over the board for what this ESP means. And believe me, as soon as we can give you clarification, we plan to do that. Once we have an answer from FERC, we will tell you what the value of this company is going forward with the ESP. If we don’t have an answer, then we’re going to give you 2016 guidance without the ESP. And I apologize that we’re leaving you hanging out there, but it’s just too big a moving part for us to speculate on the outcome. Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Capital ( USA ), Inc. Okay. I understand. Thank you. Operator Thank you. Our next question is coming from Anthony Crowdell of Jefferies. Please proceed with your question. Anthony C. Crowdell – Jefferies LLC Hey, good morning. Just – most of my questions have been answered. Just want to follow-up as the company is looking to transition more to a regulated utility, thoughts on maybe rate basing or getting some type of cost of severance return on Pleasants, on other power plants, particularly Pleasants or Mansfield? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Well, first of all, we are a regulated utility. 90%-plus of our earnings today come from our regulated operations. What we’re talking about is growth and investment inside that regulated utility. We filed our integrated resource plan with West Virginia. I think later this year, they’ll start taking a look at it seriously, and it’s up to the West Virginia Commission to decide would Pleasants be the appropriate solution. Obviously, we have a model in place already with Harrison, and we think that is something they ought to look at. Anthony C. Crowdell – Jefferies LLC In Pennsylvania, is there a similar filing or similar thought process, or just West Virginia? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Just West Virginia. Anthony C. Crowdell – Jefferies LLC Great. Thank you. Operator Thank you. Our next question is coming from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question. Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs & Co. Hey, guys. Real quick, do you ever put or can you discuss what you think the scale of the MAIT investment could be over a multi-year time? I mean, should we think about it similar to the size and scale of what ATSI and TrAIL have been? Now, I know lots of TrAIL was just one big project, but ATSI was a series of projects. Is it something that could be significantly smaller or significantly bigger? Just trying to get arms around how you’re – I don’t know how you are thinking about the size, scale and scope of MAIT could be? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director So, first of all, let me clarify again. We’ve told you we have over $15 billion of Transmission projects that our teams already identified on our existing 24,000 miles of Transmission System. Those projects can be executed with or without MAIT. MAIT is a vehicle to improve the recovery mechanism from a transparency perspective for investors and lower the cost of capital to make those investments more efficient for customers. That’s all MAIT is. It doesn’t stop us from moving forward with the transmission investment program. As far as the scale of the program, we’ll talk to you about that once we know the base of the company that we’re operating on after we get a resolution on this ESP, because it’s more driven by our capability of raising the cash and likely some equity to fund it. So we’ll tell you about that once we know those answers. Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs & Co. Got it. Okay. I was just trying to get my arms around MAIT. The transmission in the Eastern part of your service territories seems like a huge opportunity in terms of the rate base growth there. And just trying to get my arms around kind of the magnitude of the impact over time. One other question for you. O&M, where do you see the greatest opportunities across your businesses to manage O&M further down and you’ve done a really good job over the last year or so in doing so. Where do you see the incremental opportunities and where potentially are their headwinds? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Well, I don’t think of it necessarily as managing O&M down. I think about it as spending the appropriate amount of O&M to serve our customers the right way. And as we invest in new equipment, O&M is going to trend down. In the Transmission System, we’re replacing 60-year and 70-year old equipment with brand new equipment, that as I’ve shared before we’re basically buying with 30-year warranties from the manufacturer – full warranties where we don’t have to do any O&M on them. So we’re going to spend the appropriate O&M as long as we’re having rate cases and we’re having timely recovery of our expenses, I think the shareholders are immune to how much O&M is involved. And so when you think about it, it’s more about where do we spend it, how is it being recovered and is this the right amount for customers. Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs & Co. Got it. Thanks Chuck. Much appreciated. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Okay. Take care Michael. Operator Thank you. We’re showing time for one additional question today. Our last question will be coming from Praful Mehta of Citigroup. Please proceed with your questions. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Hi, Thank you. Most of… Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Good morning. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) …my questions have been answered. Just quickly on strategic direction in M&A, I guess if the Ohio PPA goes one way or the other, does that change your view around how you think about M&A in general? There’s clearly a lot of M&A that happened last year, it continues to be top of M&A this year. So, if you could just broadly – now that you’re going more towards the regulated platform and clearly as you said, you are a regulated utility, how are you thinking about strategic direction in M&A in that context? Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Of all the things I’ve been thinking about a CEO the last 16 months, M&A is not high on that priority. That’s how I would answer that. We’re trying to strengthen the company that we know. We’re a big company; we have 6 million customers to serve. We’re going to do that the right way. Praful Mehta – Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Fair enough. Thank you. Charles E. Jones – President, Chief Executive Officer & Director Okay. Before we leave, I have one final announcement that I’d like to make. Many of you know Rey Jimenez, Rey has been part of our IR team at FirstEnergy since 1997, and he has decided that he would rather spend his time in retirement than talking to all of you in the future. So, he is going to be retiring after 39 years with the company. He will be in the office until early June and I’d encourage you – I know many of you have worked with him, to get a chance to wish him the best as we will for a healthy and happy retirement. So, just wanted to make that announcement. Thank you all again for your support and confidence, and we’ll be talking to you again as soon as we have an answer from FERC. Operator Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. And have a wonderful day. Copyright policy: All transcripts on this site are the copyright of Seeking Alpha. However, we view them as an important resource for bloggers and journalists, and are excited to contribute to the democratization of financial information on the Internet. (Until now investors have had to pay thousands of dollars in subscription fees for transcripts.) So our reproduction policy is as follows: You may quote up to 400 words of any transcript on the condition that you attribute the transcript to Seeking Alpha and either link to the original transcript or to www.SeekingAlpha.com. All other use is prohibited. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HERE IS A TEXTUAL REPRESENTATION OF THE APPLICABLE COMPANY’S CONFERENCE CALL, CONFERENCE PRESENTATION OR OTHER AUDIO PRESENTATION, AND WHILE EFFORTS ARE MADE TO PROVIDE AN ACCURATE TRANSCRIPTION, THERE MAY BE MATERIAL ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR INACCURACIES IN THE REPORTING OF THE SUBSTANCE OF THE AUDIO PRESENTATIONS. 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The Stock Buyback Conundrum: Will Companies Keep It Up Much Longer?

Some facts are more interesting than others. For example, Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist and perma-bull at Charles Schwab, recently acknowledged that “…there has not been a dollar added to the U.S. stock market since the end of the financial crisis by retail investors and pension funds.” Let the reality sink in for a moment. “Mom-n-pop” investors as well as pension funds have not added to their U.S. equity positions during the seven-year-plus bull market. That includes the last three months in which major bank clients (e.g., hedge funds, private clients, institutional investors, etc.) have been net sellers. Since every buyer has a seller (and vice versa), what group or groups had enough of a buying presence to push the S&P 500 14.2% off of the February closing lows? Corporations. Click to enlarge The notion that corporate share buybacks have been influential in propping up stocks is nothing new. On the flip side, the extent of the influence may be much greater than previously realized. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index constituents acquired roughly $182 billion of stock in the first quarter of 2016 alone. Even today, with real yields ticking up from 0.0% to 0.4%, companies may not wish to pass up the perceived opportunity to fund share acquisitions through ultra-cheap debt issuance. Unfortunately, debt-funded buybacks present a number of challenges. First of all, total debt levels for U.S. companies have doubled since the Great Recession. While many analysts focus solely on the current ability for companies to service their debt obligations, the capacity for companies to do so changes when borrowing costs increase, free cash flow sinks and/or net income declines. Consider free cash flow after dividends. This refers to the cash flow from operating activities excluding fixed capital expenditures and dividends paid. In Q4 of 2015, companies spent 101.7% of free cash flow after dividends. 101.7%! Not only was that a sizable year-over-year jump from Q4 2014 when the ratio chimed in near 81%, but it demonstrates that S&P 500 corporations (in aggregate) are now spending every free dollar on the support of stock prices. If they continue to spend every dime to support stock prices, rather than growing respective businesses via capital expenditures, the inevitable stagnation would hinder long-term profit prospects. A second significant challenge to the buyback game? Companies that have spent more on stock buybacks are underperforming relative to those that have spent less on buybacks. At some point, buyback activity may be reined in by executives who become cognizant of the underachievement, particularly if there are cash flow concerns. It follows that the stock market’s only buyer would require another major group to step up its participation, or the selling pressure would overwhelm current prices. There is a third, more ominous complication associated with debt-funded buyback activity. Specifically, what would happen if credit conditions tightened? Even a modest tightening similar to what transpired in the first few months of 2016 would lead to trouble for corporations looking to finance and acquire shares. Whether spreads between treasury bonds and corporate bonds (e.g., investment grade, high yield, etc.) widen, or whether global growth concerns slam the world’s financial institutions again, it is not far-fetched to imagine easy money access becoming a little less easy. One way that a few folks are evaluating the current climate for stocks as well as the liquidity of corporations is by addressing the “Buyback to Free Cash Flow Ratio.” The higher the ratio, the more troublesome the environment. Unfortunately, at the current moment, the ratio is dangerously high – near the highest levels since the Great Recession ended (58.3%). And since corporations haven’t really slowed their insatiable appetite for buybacks just yet, the rising ratio represents aggregate free cash flow (S&P 500) dropping 9.5% on year-over-year basis. Translation? Stocks could fizzle out from their effervescent levels. Click to enlarge Total debt levels rising, net income declining, free cash flow falling, CEO realization of stock underperformance, higher borrowing costs/credit access issues. Any combination of these items is likely to inhibit the buyback support to overvalued S&P 500 equity prices. Granted, there are eternally bullish advocates like Liz Ann Sonders who claim that retail investors and pension funds will pick up the slack when corporations stand down. (Really? These groups will suddenly add substantially to their stock allocations after seven years?) Ms. Sonders also believes that a softening in buybacks would simply morph into capital expenditures, and thereby boost corporate growth prospects going forward. The problem with that assumption? “Core CapEx” has rarely looked worse at a time when the Fed is not considering additional emergency easing measures. Click to enlarge For roughly one year, our tactical approach to asset allocation has called for a defensive bias. We downshifted our moderate growth-and-income clients from 65%-70% diversified growth (e.g., large-cap, small-cap, foreign, etc.) to 45%-50% high-quality stock. Appropriate ETFs in this arena include iShares MSCI Quality Factor (NYSEARCA: QUAL ), PowerShares S&P 500 Quality (NYSEARCA: SPHQ ) and/or iShares MSCI Minimum Volatility (NYSEARCA: USMV ). We lowered moderate clients from 30%-35% diversified income (e.g., investment grade, higher yielding, foreign, etc.) to 25%-30% investment grade bonds. Appropriate ETFs for investment grade assets include SPDR Nuveen Municipal Bond (NYSEARCA: TFI ), iShares 7-10 Year Treasury (NYSEARCA: IEF ) as well as Vanguard Total Bond (NYSEARCA: BND ). The resulting 20%-30% cash/cash equivalent allocation has buffered against several volatile 10%-plus corrections (i.e., August-September and January-February). We anticipate putting the cash back to work at lower prices when the S&P 500 reaches a bearish low-water mark (1705) and/or the Federal Reserve announces a fourth iteration of quantitative easing (QE4) . Indeed, we concur with the assessment that the expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has been responsible for 93% of stock gains since the bull market inception in March of 2009. Click here for Gary’s latest podcast. Disclosure: Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial, Inc, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds, and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. 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Active Power’s (ACPW) CEO Mark Ascolese on Q1 2016 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Active Power, Inc. (NASDAQ: ACPW ) Q1 2016 Earnings Conference Call April 26, 2016 08:30 AM ET Executives Mark Ascolese – President and CEO Jay Powers – CFO and VP, Finance Analysts Craig Irwin – ROTH Capital Partners Amit Dayal – Rodman & Renshaw Operator Good morning, everyone. Thank you for participating in today’s conference call to discuss Active Power’s Financial Results for the Frist Quarter Ended March 31, 2016. With us today are Mr. Mark A. Ascolese, President and Chief Executive Officer of Active Power; and Mr. Jay Powers, Chief Financial Officer and Vice President of Finance. Following their remarks, we will open up the call for questions. Any statements made by management on this call that relate to future results and events are forward-looking statements based on Active Power’s current expectations. Actual results and the outcome of future events could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements because of a number of risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in the company’s filings with the SEC and in the cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements in the company’s press release. Active Power assumes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. On today’s call, the company will be referring to adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP financial measure. Adjusted EBITDA is reconciled to GAAP net loss in the company’s press release, which we encourage you to review. I would like to remind everyone, that this call will be available for replay via Active Powers’ website at www.activepower.com. Also please note that information presented on today’s call, speaks only as of today April 26, 2016. Any time sensitive information provided may no longer accurate at the time of the webcast replay. I would now like to turn the call over to the President and Chief Executive Officer of Active Power, Mr. Mark A. Ascolese. Sir, please go ahead. Mark Ascolese Good morning everyone. We issued a press release earlier today, announcing results for our first quarter ended March 31. There’s no way to dress up our results in the first quarter. We anticipated going in, but based on our low bookings in the fourth quarter that we turned in a poor sales performance. Our fourth and first quarters have been impacted by deferments in delivery for orders already in backlog that are anticipated to ship until later period, and buyers scrutinizing their capital investment spending during this downward cycle. Delaying orders being awarded. As disappointing is the results for us in the quarter, other trends we’re seeing in the cade are refined value proposition and activities that support this effort are having a positive impact. I’d like to take a few minutes to discuss where we’re seeing an increased interest for our products, specific actions we’ve take to support our sales organization, and early results from taking our story to the market. We’re generating interest from those customers who want to do more with less; that is less capital and operating spending, less downtime and less carbon emissions. This interest is particularly gaining momentum among healthcare and industrial operators where our technology is uniquely suited. In fact bookings for non-IT applications experienced double-digit growth in both total number and total dollar values than the first quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2016. Our success rate is also far better in these non-IT applications that in datacenter markets where a bias towards battery energy storage still exists. The concept to Total Cost of Ownership or TCO has been emerging at the forefront of business decisions as the market continues to be cost sensitive. This was certainly the sentiment of some of the largest product reserves of electrical infrastructure equipment for datacenters that we spoke with prior to our recent TCO thrust. It is important to note, these changes we are now addressing are not changes that we’ve driven our customers to make. The changes we are making are addressed to shift in demand and the questions being asked of us by our customers. In other words, as you might expect, customer are driving changes to industry dynamics and we are responding to highlight how our technology the same as we have been offering does a much better job of addressing their current and future needs as they might have previously perceived. These are profound advantages to working with Active Power solutions and now we have our TCO proposition front and center to make our case known. As we discussed on our last call, we’re now sharing at the very outset with perspective customers, how we can significantly lower their TCO, reduce our carbon footprint and improve their operations resiliency. We have been and continue to focus our efforts on tools to support our value proposition of 40% less cost, 12 times less likely to fail and nine times less carbon emissions by deploying our technology. These tools included tailored presentations for key vertical markets, a revamp TCO calculator, new white papers that back our TCO reliability claims and refinements to our web page. Our home page now places front and center the three industries we are pursuing; datacenter, healthcare and industrial manufacturing, enabling visitors to quickly get to where they need to go for more information. Each industry page is tailored to their respective audience and appeals to the customers’ strongest decision making drivers. These pages are chalked full of relevant case studies, solution guides, white papers and industry articles. I’d now like to share recent feedback from the field, where early indications point to our refined value proposition resonating with perspective customers. Earlier this year, we presented to our global foods producer to support one of the cardboard manufacturing plants in Central America. We led with our TCO story and demonstrated compelling cost savings versus conventional products due to our systems high efficiency, permanent energy storage and lower cooling requirements. With an approximately 4% UPS energy efficiency improvement over the competition in this scenario, and utility rates at an average of $0.21 per kilowatt hour, TCO savings are even more magnified particularly over a 15 year period. What keeps me excited is knowing the large datacenter market from which we generate roughly 50% of our revenues is increasingly up for grabs. Now more than ever, the legacy decision making for sticking with battery based solutions is seemingly yet gradually being second guess. By way of example, one of the leading e-tailers is coming to see us in the next few weeks because of our TCO. Also one of the world’s largest datacenter co-location provider is coming to see us because of our TCO. We anticipate these being really good sized deals and they are more out there. These developments have taken shape within the past few months since we repositioned our TCO and went to market with it and made a 15% decline in the three phased UPS market we serve. Put plainly, we aren’t concerned with the size or growth of the overall datacenter market. But we are concerned with significantly increasing our share of it and I like our chances of succeeding in that mission. We believe our success on the datacenter side of the market will be complemented by our success from the non-datacenter market. We’ve had productive discussions with three system designer integration firms to sell in the bottling companies to bundle their critical power equipment in support of their customers’ facilities. These firms manufacture filling lines and packaging equipment for the beverage industry. We have a proven track record in selling in to the bottling market having to deploy more than 45 wheels in UPS system and productions facilities in nine countries operated by one of the largest brewers in the world. We believe our experience and success in this market, coupled with a compelling value proposition has been well received. On the healthcare front, our value proposition is being embraced by the facilities and engineering networks we have been engaged with over the last few months. We’ve booked a UPS order earlier this month for medical research organization on the east coast as a direct result of our TCO story, which is anticipated to ship later this quarter. These efforts have also led us to a sales opportunity with a large healthcare operator in the Southeastern US that manages multiple hospitals. I recently returned from a trip to Singapore to meet with a large telecom company that is constructing a large co-location datacenter in the region. I was inspired by their response to our value proposition, specifically our TCO and sustainability advantage as interlines with their mission to provide resilient and energy efficient facilities that are reliable and cost efficient. As one of the leading datacenter developers in Asia, our stated mission represents the overall state of the industry for the foreseeable future and validates our TCO and value proposition. Further to these issues, the government of Singapore signed the Paris agreement on climate change on April 22, which will see the city state pledge submissions intensity by 36% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. According to industry media source datacenter dynamics, datacenters there consume approximately 7% of the total energy used in the country, despite accounting for just 1% of the total land area. These factors favor Active Power and we’ve been aggressively building out our arsenal to make our presence more pronounced in Singapore and throughout the Asia-Pacific region. I’m excited to share that we received an order for four CleanSource HD UPS systems from the Singapore based telecom company, which was booked in the first quarter and is anticipated to ship this quarter. We anticipate building our future project phases with this new customers as well as targeting new prospects in the country. I’m also encouraged by the reception of our shift in sales strategy from these customers and by the marketing assets we’ve deployed and placed in the hands of our sales organization to go out and win business. We believe these are all positive steps that will enable field sales to clearly and distinctly demonstrate to perspective customers how we can save their money and reduce their impact on the environment. As I mentioned earlier, it is the customers who are driving change. Although they may seek change that addresses one purchasing decision be it TCO reliability or sustainability, they are increasingly open to change, they are also learning that beyond the primary reason for their change, we have to other main reasons to support their selection of Active Power. With our new sales and marketing strategy intact, our first quarter bookings include large follow-on UPS orders for an international brewer and a global technology company, both anticipated to ship in the second quarter. We also booked an order for CleanSource HD UPS for a shipment to western Africa later this year to support a production facility. We received a follow-on order for two of our modular prior products from a long standing customer for their co-location datacenter market in the mid-west. The two imposers will be deployed later this year and will make our CleanSource power systems onsite. Shipments in the quarter include two CleanSource HD unit for a healthcare facility in Florida which was awarded to our OEM partner Caterpillar. We also fulfilled orders for co-location datacenter in the UK, a pharmaceutical production farm based in Japan and a children’s hospital in Missouri. Before we go further, I’d like to turn the call over to Jay to give us more financial details about the quarter. I’ll then come back to provide some closing comments. Jay? Jay Powers As we anticipated and as Mark mentioned earlier, first quarter sales performance was driven by low bookings in the fourth quarter. Despite these challenges, bookings improved 25% to $10 million compared to the previous quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.77. Bookings amount represent an anticipated revenue from products orders received during the period that are believed to be firm and from signed contracts for service works. Please refer to the supplemental information in our press release for more details regarding bookings. As we state, our business is inherently variable from quarter-to-quarter, so we longer term trends to be more meaningful as we access performance. First quarter revenues were $5.7 million down 56% compared to the first quarter of 2015 to 54% in the previous quarter. The decrease in revenue from both periods is due to lower product sales and service sales. We were impacted by both recent booking performance as well as customer project delays, resulting in deferral revenue to future periods. As a reminder, inherent variability in demand for our products contributes to quarterly fluctuations and mix as orders can range from multi-dollar MIS or UPS shipment to a single module UPS shipment for less than $100,000. One large MIS order in the quarter for example can have a significant impact in the business in a particular period. By region, revenue for the first quarter was $3.8 million in the Americas, a decrease of $6.1 million from the year ago period. In EMEA revenue was $900,000 down 2.1 million, in Asia revenue was $980,000, an improvement of $740,000. Please refer to the supplemental information in our press release for more detail on our revenue split by product and geography. The dollar amount of backlog was approximately $35.1 million at March 31. Of our total backlog, approximately $9.6 million is not expected to be filled in the following 12 months which includes long term service contract in UPS product orders. Backlog represents the amount of anticipated revenue from prior bookings at the end of period. Gross margin this quarter was 14% compared to 33% in the first quarter of 2015, and 25% in the previous quarter. The decrease in gross margin from both periods is primarily related to under absorption of fixed overhead cost to manufacturing against substantially lower product revenue and the decline in volume and service revenue which traditionally has higher margins. Total expenses were $4.7 million for the quarter, down $1.1 million from the first quarter of 2015 and 1.2 million from the previous quarter. The decreases were primarily due to lower payroll expenses, lower emissions and management’s focus on disciplined spending. In fact, the expenses are down 8 of the last 10 quarters. As we mentioned last quarter, we remain vigilant managing our expenses and identifying ways to improve operational efficiencies in light of current market conditions, while continuing to support the growth of the business. It is also worth noting, as we did last quarter, that problematic spending incurs through the regular course of business which can fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter and includes variable sales optimization, employee incentive compensation and product development activities for example. Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was a loss of $3.4 million compared to a loss of $864,000 in the year ago period. This compares to a loss in adjusted EBITDA of $2.2 million in the previous quarter. The decrease for both periods is primarily due to lower revenue resulting in higher net loss for the first quarter of 2016. Now turning to the balance sheet; we ended the first quarter with $11.2 million in cash, a decrease of $1.1 million from the end of the fiscal 2015. Cash requirements to fund any future working capital increases are expected to be funded through a revolving credit facility with Silicon Valley Bank, our outstanding borrowing amount at March 31 was $5.5 million. As a reminder and as we mentioned last quarter, we’ll not provide guidance, however we will continue to provide perspective and market trends that impact our business and growth prospects. This completes the financial portion of our presentation. I’d now like to turn the call back over to Mark. Mark Ascolese As we stated last quarter, we believe we will benefit from key industry drivers in 2016 as we emphasize our value proposition. Those market drivers include an increasingly cost conscious environment, a reduction in UPS run-time specifications, and a growing acceptance of modular design built. Our products and solutions can deliver significant capital and operating expense savings that reduces TCO by up to 40% over 15 years. Our products are 12 times less likely to fail compared to competitive offerings. Lastly and most importantly, our flywheel technology uses nine times less carbon than competitive offering over their use for life. Regardless of the overall market and the market size, we believe we can win an increasing share as our TCO sales strategies continue to gain traction. Although we have experienced two consecutive quarters of challenging business conditions, we remain focused on the depth of our fundamental long term planning. Our priorities remain unchanged and our aim is increasing bookings and backlog, improving operational efficiency and controlling cost. Expense and cash management is one that we will continue to emphasize from a strategic level, as initiatives on these fronts are particularly important in light of our performance and the condition of the markets we serve. We believe we’ll be in a position to capitalize on our earnings potential with an improved operating efficiency and meaningful leverage in our model as we continue to aggressively lead with our refined value proposition and as market conditions steadily improves. Now with that, we’ll be happy to open the calls to your questions. Question-and-Answer Session Operator [Operator Instructions] our first question comes from Craig Irwin of ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead. Craig Irwin – ROTH Capital Partners Mark can you may be discuss a little bit more the outlook for 2Q, how you see both your revenue and order progression taking shape? Mark Ascolese Okay, you know we don’t discuss specifics here, but we see a slightly improving market environment coupled with the fact that large customers, our large perspective customers are in fact engaging with us in this discussion of sustainability and cost. So we think, generally speaking, that bodes well going forward. Obviously our last two quarters you have to go back many years to see a performance at these levels. We do not expect for that to continue and we have shown progress in controlling expenses here and managing the cash. We expect that to also continue. Craig Irwin – ROTH Capital Partners My second question is related to the pipeline, could you may be give us some color on how you see the pipeline which changed since you reported your fourth quarter results, and update us on the potential for large orders to potentially materialize in the next quarter or two. Mark Ascolese Yeah, so we talked about this last quarter on our call. We’ve seen over the last let’s call it 15 months, a nice increase in opportunities coming in to the pipeline. And as we discussed on our last call, over the last 12 months, we have seen an increase in the number of jobs of over $1 million. We believe, especially since the fourth quarter of last year, we believe a portion of those opportunities are showing up because of the emphasis and the repositioning of the value proposition that we brought forth to the market. It will take time for deals that over $1 million to close, but we are feeling good at this point about the fact that there are more opportunities setting in the pipeline and that we are getting a favorable response to the discussions we have with prospects relative to our value proposition and relative to their interest in these technologies. Craig Irwin – ROTH Capital Partners My last question is related to expenses; so your bottom line number, I guess with the revenue was a big accomplishment, I mean that’s some pretty rigorous expense controls. Can you talk about whether or not this was more of a variable item or a timing or if there was anything one-time in there, and are you likely to add back expenses if we see the rebound in activity in the second half of the year. Mark Ascolese On a fundamental basis, we have for a company our size an inordinate amount of fixed overhead cost especially related to our factory. Those are costs that we can’t do a lot about in the short term. Every other cost in the company from headcount to salaries to any type of spending is a target for us to figure out how to manage and control. We’ve been doing that quite honestly for the last two and a half years. We got much more aggressive after the fourth quarter of last year with the bookings results and we do not plan on a short term to be adding cost back in to the business. I would have to see a couple of quarters of upward growth, let’s say the bookings number to do that. We would add variable direct labor cost in to the shop if need be obviously, which is not hard for us to do. So that would definitely be on the cards. Craig Irwin – ROTH Capital Partners Great, thank you for that and I guess strong execution given the revenue run in the quarter. Operator Our next question comes from Amit Dayal of Rodman & Renshaw. Please go ahead. Amit Dayal – Rodman & Renshaw Last quarter you indicate that the drop in revenue is more of a push-out versus loss of customers. Do you still believe these levels of revenues are not indicated with customer’s losses, could you just clarify the sharp drop in the year-over-year revenues from at least the product side? Mark Ascolese Yes. So I think what I said last quarter was that we did not lose some of the bookings you would anticipate in the fourth quarter. The customer didn’t go away, they didn’t cancel projects. As a matter of fact I think we lost one deal to the competition that we thought we were going book in the fourth quarter. That has continued in the first quarter of this year. Like you I am concerned that if that continues over some period of time there’s always a possibility the projects may get cancelled. We did experience in the first quarter the push-out of some of our backlog that we had anticipated shifting in the first quarter that has moved to the second quarter. Again, orders were not cancelled but product and inventory that we fully expected to ship did not and is moving to the second quarter. So we were not seeing cancellation of backlog at this point and we’re not seeing a loss of especially large projects that we anticipated wining. We are merely seeing a longer decision cycle, more protracted decision cycle in this environment. Not surprising, I just came out with their figures for 2015 and the North American market for example was down 15% last year in the prior ranges we participate in, and globally it was down double-digit. So it’s not surprising to see that kind of behavior in a market that is contracting like that. But we still have as I mentioned, we still see lots of opportunity in our pipeline and we still have additional opportunities coming into the pipeline every quarter, especially of opportunities above $1 million. Amit Dayal – Rodman & Renshaw So the revenues that were recognized in the first quarter were these sales generated in the first quarter or were they part of the backlog from previous quarters? What I find like how much of the revenues are coming in the in-quarter sales versus from previous backlogs. Jay Powers Amit, it really is a combination, throughout the quarter we routinely get book bill, for example in our service business. Our service business does often get – the repair and spare parts opportunity will rise within the quarter. The hot bed was the third was backlog that we had entering in to the quarter that we anticipated shipping within the quarter that customers notified us they’d be to reschedule for a variety of reasons including delays at the site and their build-out schedule. So like any quarter, it’s a mixture of stuff that came in from backlog and book-to-bill. Amit Dayal – Rodman & Renshaw And on the margin, once we sort of get back on historical levels of revenue should we expect margins to sort of bounce back to those levels. Is it just from the additional overheads that were not absorbed because of the lower revenues, is that the key driver for the lower margins this time. Jay Powers It absolutely is, as a matter of fact here, we continue to take cost out even within the gross margin area, some of the variable costs and other things. I would anticipate that when volume returns to more normal levels that I think we could actually enjoy higher gross margins as we don’t replenish on those costs and we continue to work hard on projects that cost reduce the product. We continue to look at the product and look at our supply chain for opportunities to take private cost out. So the margin is not an indication of price changes in the market. It’s really due to the amount of those fixed cost of people and overheads that were not able to absorb the significant decline in the volume in the quarter. Amit Dayal – Rodman & Renshaw Just one last question, backlogs improved slightly, is it more MIS or UPS products that’s stronger for you in terms of backlog. Jay Powers It also is a combination, we did have one large order for an MIS opportunity that was in Mark’s comments, a repeat customer that ordered two of our power house units which will contain our UPS system with inside the power house. So there was an increase in the MIS area, but the predominant number would be increase in UPS side of the business. Operator [Operator Instructions] our next question comes from John [Fanning] of [Coast Capital]. Please go ahead. Unidentified Analyst I want to dig a little bit deeper in to your non-datacenter projects. You’ve mentioned within the call that your pipeline’s getting better. In fact I think you mentioned a couple of firms are coming to see you soon. Why are you wining these projects over competitors and just from your perspective to the extent you can share, what do you think your success rate is for wining these projects maybe a little bit better than your datacenter projects. Mark Ascolese Well number one, we don’t have to overcome the issue of electrochemical storage with these customers. They are not pre-disposed to deploy those types of system, as a matter of fact they don’t like those type of systems because they really – if you’re talking about a shop full of production facility, they really don’t have the wherewithal to build special rooms and air conditioning and special environments to protect all that stuff. So first of all we don’t have that argument. Secondly when you look at our footprint and you look at our efficiencies and you look at the design life of the product and the cost to maintain it, we are head and shoulders above a double conversion battery based solution or even the drugs products that are out there. So it is just all around an easier sale for us to make, and the value proposition and the cost is really significant to the customer. And in these cases the customer may only be looking for 10 or 15 or 20 seconds of [life] through time where in datacenter applications they may be looking for more than that. So our solution to choose up with 15 second or 18 seconds also meets their design spec for that and we’re much more cost effective for example that super caps or some of these other technologies that are out there for bridging times in that order. Unidentified Analyst Mark, just if I can expand on this just a little bit more, for your non-datacenter versus datacenter deals from initial engagement to deal closing, I’m just asking kind of on the sales cycle, is it a little bit quicker, is it a little bit longer? Just give me some idea of what the sales cycle would be? Mark Ascolese So for a new customer last quarter we experienced 25% to 28% new customers again. For a new customer when we enter the project and early on when they’re just starting to figure about designing sector that can take a year in that market. If there’s an existing customer that we have supplied product to in the past, from the time we hear about a project to the time that we actually ship product can be half that time or even less. Sometimes we’ll hear about a product in the industrial space, a project that’s four months or five months out. We had one of those in the fourth quarter of last year, brand new customer. I think we talked about it on our last call. Where the opportunity came up and it was shipped within the quarter, they had a mean, we had a solution. They bought obviously our TCOs story and we were able to ship and commission the product for them. So it’s a little bit less than datacenters and the projects tend to be lower in value. Okay, so a typical datacenter project with a large datacenter operator can be a couple of million dollars or better. A very large opportunity in the industrial space could be a 1.2 million or 1.3 million. So difference in size generally speaking. Unidentified Analyst And just as a follow-up to my last question is, on your healthcare and industrial verticals the two that you’re going after can you give me some idea of kind of the market size and the dynamics that are shaping these two verticals and how you’re attacking both of these. Mark Ascolese So within the UPS market space, the UPS market that we address is around $1.6 billion, $1.7 billion. Within that space, first of all, datacenter is the largest vertical. Healthcare and industrial are the next two largest vertical and they happen to be growing at this point within the mix, where the datacenter space is not. And so they are significant markets in the $300 million to $400 million range that we are playing in they are growing. And forgot the second part of your question, you’re going to have to remind me. Unidentified Analyst Sure, it was the market size and kind of the dynamics, what’s driving growth within these markets. Mark Ascolese It’s a little bit different than a datacenter where they kind of have obviously an organized shutdown of the computer system that can take 30-40 seconds; they got to get generators up online. Typically in a manufacturing environment they want to have an organized shut down of a production line and that is normally counted in seconds. So they just want to stop the production line in an organized fashion and they want to stop the flow of raw material to the production line in an organized fashion, so that they don’t have to go in and clean out all their tubs and vessels and pipes. If they don’t do it in a realized fashion especially if it’s a glass operation where you break a lot of glass in a process, you also have to go and clean out everything and that could take a day, just to reset. So they are trying to solve the typical non-power anomalies that we resolve, but they are trying to do it in an organized fashion should there be an outage and they typically don’t to go to generators. And so they typically wanted to have a process that could be automated, that if there is an issue of power outage within a matter of let’s say 10 or 12 seconds, our equipment and their equipment working together and communicating together could have a very soft shutdown of their production line and then bring it back up online when the power comes back. And we fit what they are looking for obviously from a technical perspective. You add to that fact that we’re 60% smaller than a competitive solution and that are our maintenance requirements are de-minimus compared to the other solutions, and it’s just a very good solution for the customer. Operator Our next question comes from Tim [Macquarey] of Shardain Capital. Please go ahead. Unidentified Analyst Can you talk a little about pricing trends in the major product areas, and I think that’s it. Mark Ascolese In this industry there are four large multinational companies that compete and three of them sell battery based solutions, one of them sells a diesel rotary UPS system, and the guys that are selling the battery based solutions have over time learned to get all the cost out or a significant amount cost out of the upfront cost of their solutions. And the fundamental reason for that is because they have huge operating costs, after the first couple of years of an installation and that operating cost comes in the form of the requirement to check out the batteries every quarter and requirement to replace those batteries. Sometime between your three and your six, those are significant cost to a customer. Their systems also tend to be a little bit more less efficient. So let’s put it another way, we may use and do use less electricity in the fulfillment of our filling up of the power than they do. So when a customer is buying a product, they tend to look at upfront cost. And they will compare our cost to the upfront cost of the battery based solution and the mindset in many cases especially for large purchasers are, they were a little bit more expensive on the front end. This discussion we’re having about TCO is the education of those customers to show them that we’re really a cost parity at the front end and we can save them 40% over the life of the installation. And quite honestly money does talk in the industry and it’s a matter of showing those facts, it’s a matter of delivering the TCO calculator and letting the prospect apply all their known costs in to that model and to calculate the results for themselves and determine whether or not the packs that we present them are correct. And so that is the discussion we’re having with prospects and it is resonating obviously because these are hard dollars we’re talking about. We’re talking about what you pay for electricity every month, we’re talking about what you pay for maintenance every month, we’re talking about not having to replace massive bags of batteries and battery cabinets every so many years, over a 15 year life of a datacenter. Unidentified Analyst I get, I’m asking something a little bit differently is that even includes accounting for that discussion that you’re having and the lower total cost of ownership, what pricing trends are you seeing for your products. Have they been relatively flat, down at some normal price decline, increase, that’s what I’m trying to get at. Even accounting for those discussions what price experience have you had over the past let’s call it 6 to 12 months. Mark Ascolese Let’s talk about the US market first; we actually have kind of maintained price and we’ve done that mainly due to this TCO discussion. We’ve also done a lot of work on the margin side in some instances on large opportunities for we have to get a little more aggressive on price. We’ve got aggressive cost out programs going on within the company. In places like Europe where the euro has declined so much in value, it’s a very big issue for us, and we’re still selling at premium over there. We’ve not been able to raise prices over there, obviously we’ve had to lower our prices somewhat, and we’ve had to make concerted effort on the TCO story to offset what’s going on with the euro currency valuation. Plus our major competitors in Europe, people like Piller, Eurodiesel, and Hitec are all European based companies, and so in that market we tend to have a harder time against those guys than we do in other markets. But we’ve been, at least in the last 2.5 years, we’ve been able to maintain pricing good here. We’ve not been able to raise price, but we’ve been able to maintain price and we’ve been able to get cost out of the product. Operator This concludes the question and answer session. I’d like to turn the conference back over to the management team for any final remarks. Mark Ascolese Thank you for being on our call this morning. On behalf of the entire senior management team, our employees and our Board, I would like to express our appreciation for your continued interest in and support of Active Power. We look forward to speaking to you again next quarter. Operator Thank you, sir. This now concludes today’s call. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect. Copyright policy: All transcripts on this site are the copyright of Seeking Alpha. 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