Tag Archives: portfolio-strategy

Value Stocks Are Still Not Attractive

There is no mystery in the ongoing behavior of value stocks against growth. It reflects a combination of low 10-year yields and a strong dollar, both of which are positive for growth stocks. As long as U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar will remain negatively correlated, value stocks may not outperform. Since the Fed started mentioning tapering, the relationship between the relative performance of value against growth and U.S. Treasury yields has broken down at least twice (see chart below). Episodes of higher yields should have benefited value stocks but did actually not. Yet, taking a long view, the long lasting underperformance of value is not really surprising – value stocks have suffered from the long decline in U.S. Treasury yields: conundrum, great recession, secular stagnation… Contrary to the late 1990s, the outperformance of growth is not linked to any bubble (Internet stocks in 98/99). From this perspective, only a significant reversal in U.S. long term yield would call for a structurally long position on value against growth. Once again the arbitrage for value when yields are going up is not linked to the growth expectations embedded in long term yields (which would call for growth stocks to outperform) but rather on the yield arbitrage (growth stocks have a much lower E/P hence a required price adjustment that is much significant than that of high E/P value stocks). The ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar also explains the relative strength of growth stocks. As can be seen below, bullish trends for the USD are generally positive for growth sub-indexes. On a three-month basis, the recent behavior of the USD would yet suggest either that growth-stock outperformance is overdue or that stocks are pricing a sharp rebound in the U.S. currency. Bottom Line: There is no mystery in the ongoing behavior of value stocks against growth. It reflects a combination of low 10-year yields and a strong dollar, both of which are positive for growth stocks (at least on a relative perspective). The question is therefore not about any “weird” behavior of value stocks but rather about the nature of the relationship between 10-year yields and the USD: how long will U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar remain negatively correlated? The chart below suggests that the correlation break is close to be the longest ever. As long as it lasts, value won’t be attractive. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Share this article with a colleague

Volatility Is An Asset Class That Can Be Sold As Well As Bought

By DailyAlts Staff The CBOE Volatility Index more than tripled during the course of trading on August 24, 2015 – an all-time record. On that same day, the S&P 500 fell nearly 4%, while the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gained a miniscule 0.03%, demonstrating the ineffectiveness of the standard two asset class portfolio diversification model. Puny bond yields provide little cushion for broad market selloffs, which has led many investors to turn to alternative strategies and asset classes, including volatility itself. This is the subject of a new white paper from Allianz Global Investors (“Allianz GI”): Volatility as an Asset Class . Volatility: Realized vs. Implied The paper’s author, Dr. Bernhard Brunner, is Allianz GI’s Head of Analytics and Derivative. He begins by discussing the difference between realized volatility – the standard deviation of logarithmized returns; and implied volatility – that which is measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). Realized volatility is typically less than implied volatility, and this means buying implied volatility, such as through VIX futures, comes with a volatility risk premium . Thus, while the negative correlation between equities and equity volatility makes buying implied volatility seem like a good portfolio diversifier, the consistent volatility risk premium makes it even more attractive to sell volatility, according to Dr. Brunner. Variance Swaps In addition to taking short positions in VIX futures or ETPs that track volatility, investors can also sell volatility through so-called variance swaps . Variance swaps are traded “OTC” (“over the counter”), but swaps on equity indexes such as the S&P 500 and EuroStoxx 50 are highly liquid nonetheless. And while VIX futures may have considerable variance from realized volatility, variance swaps can be structured so their payoff is exactly equal to the difference between realized and implied variances, thereby constituting a more precise definition of the volatility risk premium. Allianz GI’s Approach Allianz GI has developed an index to earn the volatility risk premium by systematically selling variance swaps on the S&P 500 and EuroStoxx 50. Its investment approach is governed by specific rules and based on the following characteristics of volatility as an asset class: (click to enlarge) Volatility always reverts to its long-term mean; Volatility tends to bounce briefly when the stock market slumps, followed by lengthier downward trends; and Volatility forms volatility clusters. Volatility offers a lot of promise as an asset class, based on its portfolio-diversification advantages. Most notably, volatility has what Dr. Brunner describes as an “immunity to interest trends,” which makes it virtually unique among investible assets, and particularly attractive in the current investment environment. For more information, download a pdf copy of the white paper . Share this article with a colleague

When To Deploy Capital

One of my clients asked me what I think is a hard question: When should I deploy capital? I’ll try to answer that here. There are three main things to consider in using cash to buy or sell assets: What is your time horizon? When will you likely need the money for spending purposes? How promising is the asset in question? What do you think it might return versus alternatives, including holding cash? How safe is the asset in question? Will it survive to the end of your time horizon under almost all circumstances, and at least preserve value while you wait? Other questions like “Should I dollar cost average, or invest the lump?” are lesser questions, because what will make the most difference in ultimate returns comes from the above three questions. Putting it another way, the results of dollar cost averaging depend on returns after you put in the last dollar of the lump, as does investing the lump sum all at once. Thinking about price momentum and mean reversion are also lesser matters, because if your time horizon is a long one, the initial results will have a modest effect on the ultimate results. Now, if you care about price momentum, you may as well ignore the rest of the piece and start trading in and out with the waves of the market – assuming you can do it. If you care about mean reversion, you can wait in cash until we get “the mother of all sell-offs” and then invest. That has its problems as well: What’s a big enough sell-off? There are a lot of bears waiting for rock-bottom valuations, but the promised bargain valuations don’t materialize, because others invest at higher prices than you would, and the prices never get as low as you would like. Ask John Hussman . Investing has to be done on a “good enough” basis. The optimal return in hindsight is never achieved. Thus, at least for value investors like me, we focus on what we can figure out: How long can I set aside this capital? Is this a promising investment at a relatively attractive price? Do I have a margin of safety buying this? Those are the same questions as the first three, just phrased differently. Now, I’m not saying that there is never a time to sit on cash, but decisions like that are typically limited to times where valuations are utterly nuts, like 1964-65, 1968, 1972, 1999-2000 – basically, parts of the go-go years and the dot-com bubble. Those situations don’t last more than a decade, and are typically much shorter. Beyond that, if you have the capital to spare, and the opportunity is safe and cheap, then deploy the capital. You’ll never get it perfect. The price may fall after you buy. Those are the breaks. If that really bothers you, then maybe do half of what you would ultimately do, but set a time limit for investment of the other half. Remember, the opposite can happen, and the price could run away from you. A better idea might show up later. If there is enough liquidity, trade into the new idea. Since perfection is not achievable, if you have something good enough, I recommend that you execute and deploy the capital. Over the long haul, given relative peace, the advantage belongs to the one who is invested. If you still wonder about this question you can read the following two articles: In the end, there is no perfect answer, so if the situation is good enough, give it your best shot. Disclosure: None.