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CyberArk, FireEye Q4 Sales Expected To Brake; But Stocks Rebound

CyberArk Software ( CYBR ) and FireEye ( FEYE ) stocks lent themselves to a security recovery Wednesday, both climbing ahead of their late-Thursday quarterly earnings reports after a four-day downtrend pounded IBD’s Computer Software-Security industry group. The 26-company group rose 1.7% Wednesday after hitting a one-year low on Tuesday, with shares of Qualys ( QLYS ),  Imperva ( IMPV ) and Proofpoint ( PFPT ) leading the way, up 15.2%, 6.3% and 5.6%, respectively. CyberArk stock rose 2.3%, while FireEye stock jumped 3.7%. Still, the Computer Software-Security group ranks a mere 176 out of 197 groups tracked by IBD. But CyberArk and FireEye are expected to report sales, for Q4, that will have decelerated for their third- and sixth-consecutive quarters, respectively. CyberArk EPS Seen Falling For Q4, the consensus of 15 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters sees CyberArk reporting $43.9 million in sales and 20 cents earnings per share ex items, up 21% and down 5%, respectively. It would be the first time in six quarters that CyberArk’s earnings have fallen year over year. Three months ago, CyberArk guided to $43 million to $44 million in sales and 18-20 cents EPS minus items. CyberArk is expected to report a 49% year-over-year jump to $153.3 million in sales for the year. EPS is seen climbing 53% vs. 2014 to 81 cents. CyberArk previously guided to $152.3 million to $153.3 million in sales and 80-82 cents EPS minus items. Will FireEye’s Billings Recover? FireEye is expected to report $185.3 million in Q4 sales and a per-share loss ex items of 37 cents. On a year-over-year basis, sales would grow 30% and losses would shrink by a penny. In November, FireEye guided to $182 million to $190 million in sales, 36-38 cents per-share losses minus items and $240 million to $260 million in billings, which for the latter would be up 18% at the midpoint. For 2015, the consensus of 34 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expects FireEye to report $623.4 million in sales, up 46%. Losses per share ex items of $1.62 are expected to lessen from $1.97 in 2014. The company previously guided to $620 million to $628 million in sales and losses per share ex items of $1.61 to $1.63. Billings guidance for $780 million to $800 million would be up 34% at the midpoint.

Could ‘More Nimble’ Security Rivals Swipe Qualys’ Market Share?

DA Davidson analyst Jack Andrews likened Qualys’ ( QLYS ) disappointing Q4 to the 1994 action flick “Speed.” And even Keanu Reeves and Sandra Bullock would struggle to pilot this speeding vehicle. “Qualys reminds us of an automobile driver who is trying to simultaneously replace critical engine parts while maintaining an appropriate speed limit on a busy road,” Andrews wrote in a research note Tuesday. “There are simply too many moving parts to fully support a buy rating.” Andrews downgraded Qualys stock to neutral and cut his price target to 25 from 51. At least three other analysts slashed their price targets on Qualys stock after the cloud security vendor late Monday reported Q4 and 2015 sales that missed Wall Street views. Its Q1 guidance also lagged the consensus. Qualys stock was down 23% in afternoon trading in the stock market today , hitting a 30-month low near 17. For Q4, Qualys reported 21 cents earnings per share ex items on $44.4 million in sales, up 40% and 21.5%, respectively, from the year-earlier quarter. EPS topped expectations for 17 cents, but sales missed the consensus of 16 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters for $44.6 million. Qualys ended the year with $164.3 million in sales and 70 cents EPS ex items. Current-quarter sales guidance for $44.7 million to $45.4 million would be up 20% at the midpoint, but that’s more than $1 million short of the consensus. EPS guidance for 14-16 cents missed Wall Street views for 18 cents. New Products Could Buoy Growth Last quarter was Qualys’ slowest in more than two years, Pacific Crest analyst Rob Owens noted in a research report. Owens rates Qualys stock as sector weight. Vulnerability management (VM) comprises 78.7% of Qualys’ Q4 sales and grew 18% vs. the year-earlier quarter and 19% for the year, Credit Suisse analyst Sitikantha Panigrahi wrote in a report. Noncore products — Web application scanning, policy compliance and Web application firewall — rose 35% year over year in Q4, but decelerated sequentially from 40% growth in Q3 and 50% in Q2, Panigrahi wrote. Panigrahi reiterated his outperform rating on Qualys stock but cut his price target to 35 from 45. But Summit Research analyst Srini Nandury reiterated his buy rating on Qualys stock but dropped his price target to 35 from 50. Nandury expects at least 20% near-term sales growth on new product launches this month. The new series will be based on Qualys’ ElasticSearch capabilities and Cloud Agent platform, Qualys CEO Philippe Courtot said in the company’s earnings conference call. “Many businesses are yet to deploy VM solutions in any meaningful way,” Nandury wrote in a report. “Upcoming products are expected to contribute meaningfully by year-end.” Security Stocks Hit In High-Tech Sell-Off Yet, Pacific Crest’s Owens questioned whether Qualys could maintain its VM leadership in a tough market. IBD’s 41-company Computer Software-Security industry group closed down nearly 7.2% Monday, after falling 7.4% Friday. The group was down another fraction midday Tuesday and touched its lowest point since June 2014. “We continue to believe that Qualys is beginning to cede share to smaller, more nimble competitors in their core VM space, and that others may offer a stronger value proposition with their complementary solutions and messaging,” Owens wrote. Smaller rivals include Rapid7 ( RPD ) — a $408 million market value to Qualys’ $609 million — and privately held Beyond Security, Critical Watch, Core Security, SAINT, Tenable Network Security and Tripwire. Owens added: “While everything is ‘on sale’ in this bear market, we prefer names that could offer more upside should things stabilize.” The unstable stock environment got no help last week from weak   quarterly reports from LinkedIn ( LNKD ) and Tableau Software ( DATA ). Cybersecurity competitors Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ) and  Proofpoint ( PFPT ) were recovering somewhat Tuesday, both up 1% Tuesday afternoon, but   FireEye ( FEYE ) stock was down 2.5% Tuesday afternoon, after falling 9.5% Monday.

Qualys Slammed On Q4, 2015 Sales Miss, Sluggish Q1 Guidance

Cloud-securer Qualys ( QLYS ) more than doubled its losses from the regular stock-trading session after-hours on Monday, as it missed the consensus analyst view on Q4 and 2015 sales and offered Q1 guidance that lagged Wall Street expectations. In extended trading Monday, Qualys stock plunged 6.7% after wrapping the day down 6.1% at the closing bell. High-tech stocks toppled Monday on continued pressure following LinkedIn ( LNKD ) and Tableau ‘s ( DATA ) poorly received forecasts late last week. And stocks were widely slammed by global worries , with the price of oil again dropping to about $30 a barrel. IBD’s 41-company Computer Software-Security industry group closed Monday down 7.2% after ending Friday down 7.4%. Shares of Proofpoint ( PFPT ), FireEye ( FEYE ), CyberArk Software ( CYBR ) and Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ) also suffered Monday and closed the day down 10.3%, 9.5%, 9% and 9.3%, respectively. For its Q4 ended Dec. 31, Qualys reported $44.4 million in sales and 21 cents in earnings per share excluding items, up 21% and 40%, respectively. EPS minus items easily topped the consensus of 16 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters for 17 cents, but sales were slightly short of Wall Street expectations for $44.6 million. Qualys wrapped the year with 70 cents EPS ex items on $164.3 million in sales, up 52% and 23%, respectively, year over year. Sales fell short of the consensus view for $164.4 million, but EPS minus items topped projections for 66 cents. In both cases, Q4 and 2015 sales were in line with Qualys’ prior guidance, but EPS minus items topped the high end of earlier views. Current-quarter guidance for $44.7 million to $45.4 million and 14-16 cents EPS ex items would be up 20% and flat, respectively, at the midpoints of the outlook. But both views missed the consensus model for $46.3 million and 18 cents. Qualys stock hit an all-time high of 55.47 on May 4, 2015, but plunged nearly 33% the next day after missing Q2 expectations. Since then, shares have fallen another 39%.