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Palo Alto Networks’ Q3 Seen Hitting 2014 Trough Levels Amid Slowdown

Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ) is expected late Thursday to report fiscal Q3 sales and earnings that decelerated to mid-2014 trough levels, with further sales-growth slowing expected in fiscal Q4, according to the consensus of 43 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. In early afternoon trading on the stock market today , Palo Alto Networks stock was up a fraction, near 145. The rise underperformed IBD’s 26-company Computer Software-Security industry group, which jumped 1.6%. A weak April-quarter earnings report by the company could stoke further questions of a broad cybersecurity slowdown . This month, investment bank Piper Jaffray noted slowing demand for Palo Alto Networks products, citing its own checks of the sales channel. Palo Alto’s results come after soft Q2 and fiscal 2016 guidance from security vendors  Check Point Software Technology ( CHKP ) and FireEye ( FEYE ). Imperva ( IMPV ) and Proofpoint ( PFPT ) likewise missed with their Q2 guidance, and Barracuda Networks ‘ ( CUDA ) and Fortinet ‘s ( FTNT ) full-year views lagged. For fiscal Q3, Palo Alto Networks is expected to report $339.5 million in sales and 42 cents earnings per share minus items, up a respective 45% and 83% vs. the year-earlier quarter. A company faces the prospect of lower percentage growth when it gets bigger, but Q3 sales would decelerate for the fourth consecutive quarter and would dip below 50% growth for the first time since June 2014. For the current fiscal Q4, the analyst consensus calls for 37% year-over-year growth, lagging the 53% growth average Palo Alto has enjoyed the past three years. Q3 EPS, as modeled, would break a five-quarter streak of triple-digit growth and touch a seven-quarter low. But analysts model 79% EPS ex items growth in fiscal Q4, which would top the 55% growth average for Palo Alto’s past three July quarters.

Salesforce, Palo Alto, Red Hat In Race To $100 Billion Market Cap

A bullish Morgan Stanley reports calls Salesforce.com ( CRM ) the most likely software company to next hit the milestone of a $100 billion market valuation, though it says security firm Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ) is also in the hunt. Salesforce.com, a top provider of cloud-based software-as-a-service, has a market cap of $56 billion, while Palo Alto’s valuation is nearly $13 billion. “With the most customer data in the cloud and multiple solutions targeting over 62 million users, we see Salesforce.com as the clear leader in SaaS-based applications and well on their way to a $100 billion market cap,” Keith Weiss, a Morgan Stanley analyst, said in a research report. Salesforce.com stock has rallied since early February, after plunging at the start of 2016. Salesforce stock was up nearly 2% in midday trading in the stock market today , near 83. Salesforce.com has an IBD Composite Rating of 99, the highest possible. IBD Take: How does Salesforce.com rate a 99 CR? Find out with IBD Stock Checkup. As for Palo Alto Networks, Weiss wrote that “to achieve the revenue scale necessary to become a $100 billion market cap company, Palo Alto must successfully expand their focus from the network security segment to the broader pool of overall security spending.” Weiss says Red Hat ( RHT ) is also well positioned in the cloud market but might not reach the $100 billion valuation mark. It’s now less than $14 billion. As for a couple of other fast-growing SaaS providers, Weiss points to stiff competition. “In our view, the problem with Qlik Technologies ( QLIK ) or Tableau Software ( DATA ) becoming the next $100 billion company is the competitive environment,” he wrote. Salesforce.com will remain strong in SaaS, Weiss says, despite cloud competition from the likes of  Amazon.com ( AMZN ), Google parent  Alphabet ( GOOGL ) and Microsoft ( MSFT ). San Francisco-based Salesforce.com garners mainly subscription revenue from on-demand software delivered via the Internet cloud. It’s the No. 1 provider of customer relationship software. “With SaaS-based applications’ faster innovation cycles and easier integration of new functionality, it becomes harder for vendors to sustain differentiation and enables (broad product) vendors to garner broader ecosystems and higher market share — as seen by Salesforce.com’s 40%+ share of the sales force automation market,” Weiss wrote.