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Here’s Why IBM Is Falling Despite A Solid Q1 Earnings Beat

IBM ( IBM ) was trading down Tuesday, following a first-quarter earnings report late Monday that beat estimates but still left room for concern. IBM has been undergoing a major transition, shedding older technologies while making a concerted push into growth areas such as cloud computing, Big Data analytics, security and mobile computing — areas it calls strategic imperatives. The transition helps explain why revenue growth has declined each quarter for the past four years. In its Q1 earnings results, IBM reported revenue of $18.7 billion, down 4.6% from the year-earlier quarter but edging the Wall Street consensus estimate of $18.3 billion. Revenue from strategic imperatives rose 14%. Total cloud revenue rose 34%. Earnings per share ex items of $2.35 easily beat views of $2.09, as polled by Thomson Reuters, but were down 19% and marked the fourth quarter in a row of EPS declines. IBM stock was down more than 6%, near 143, in afternoon trading in the stock market today , presumably on the view that Q2 expectations are below estimates. IBM does not provide formal quarterly guidance, but its implied EPS guidance of $2.85 for Q2 is below the consensus estimate of 3.01. Despite the Q1 beat, IBM did not increase but instead maintained its full-year earnings outlook. IBD’s Take: How healthy is IBM’s stock and how does it stack up vs. rivals? Find out at IBD Stock Checkup RBC Capital Markets analyst Amit Daryanani maintained a sector perform rating on IBM stock, and a price target of 155. “We believe the competitive challenges are emerging from companies seeking to build a business model similar to IBM’s, notably Hewlett-Packard Enterprise ( HPE ), Cisco ( CSCO ), Oracle ( ORCL ), EMC ( EMC ), and Dell,” he wrote. Of these competitors, he said, Hewlett-Packard is the closest. Another is Cisco. ‘Attempting To Recreate The IBM Model’ “Beyond Hewlett-Packard and Cisco, there are also others attempting to recreate the IBM model,” he wrote. A harsher report on IBM came from Credit Suisse analyst Kulbinder Garcha, who reiterated an underperform rating and a price target of 110 on IBM stock. “We believe the quality of earnings was again low and the manner in which IBM has chosen to manage its business seems unsustainable,” Garcha wrote. “We believe the secular and structural challenges facing IBM remain, and specifically see limited improvement in Services and Software margins.” UBS analyst Steven Milunovich maintained a neutral rating on IBM but raised his price target to 150 from 132. “The quarter was mixed with revenue and EPS beating due to currency improvement, acquisitions, and the Japan tax rebate,” he wrote. “We give IBM credit for changing the narrative,” with an emphasis on becoming a leader in the new category of Cognitive Computing, which includes its Watson computer business, he wrote. Drexel Hamilton raised its revenue forecast, maintained its EPS projection and raised the price target to 166 from 160.

No Slouch, But Manhattan Associates’ EPS Growth May Have Eased To 15%

Investors are hoping fast-growing supply-chain software developer Manhattan Associates ( MANH ) will say something Tuesday to help re-accelerate growth. Not that Manhattan is any slouch, but the 15% improvement in first-quarter earnings that it’s expected to disclose after Tuesday’s market close would be its slowest year-to-year growth rate in 15 quarters. Six of those 15 quarters have topped 30% earnings growth, including Q3 and Q4 2015, and all but two of the last 15 topped 20%. While still 25% off a record high 77.75 set Dec. 7, Manhattan Associates stock was up more than 1.5% in afternoon trading in the stock market today , near 58 and 31% above its 44.27 nadir hit Feb. 8 during this year’s software slump. Most of its bigger enterprise-software rivals have been faring better, with the biggest, Oracle ( ORCL ) up fractionally, 9% off recent highs. Enterprise software maker SAP ( SAP ) was also up fractionally and just 2% off a recent high, while Salesforce.com ( CRM ) was up more than 1%, just 7% off its recent high. The entire IBD Computer Software-Enterprise industry group, which does not include Oracle as a member, is about 9% off its Nov. 9 high. Oracle is a member of IBD’s Computer Software-Database group, which is 22% off an August high. Among the re-accelerants that management might discuss Tuesday is just how much its new distribution management (DM) tools announced last week might contribute to revenue. Its new DM Mobile platform gives users “the ability to address any operational issues, including inventory issues, directly from the floor via their tablet devices, increasing mobility and driving productivity and efficiency,” the company announced at the MODEX supply-chain management show in Atlanta. On Feb. 3, just before Manhattan stock tanked more than 20% in three trading sessions, William Blair analyst Matthew Pfau said in a research note that “the 2016 EPS guidance that management provided is conservative, and through a combination of revenue growth, operating expense leverage and share repurchases we expect Manhattan to continue to increase its EPS in excess of 15% over the next several years. “We recommend shares to long-term investors looking for a midcap software company with a strong record of execution and sustainable earnings growth opportunity.” By consensus, Pfau and four other Wall Street analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect Manhattan to deliver Q1 earnings up 15% to 39 cents per share minus items, on revenue up 8.9% to $145.5 million. That would be a record quarter in hard dollars, but the year-over-year rate would be only slightly better than Q4’s 8% growth to $141 million and only the third time in 15 quarters that its sales growth had slipped into single digits. Over the past five years, it’s averaged 14% sales growth annually and 15% earnings growth. Manhattan guided full 2016 non-GAAP EPS to a range of $1.69 to $1.72, the midpoint slightly below analysts’ $1.71 consensus, or up 12.5% from 2015. It guided 2016 sales to a range of $609 million to $615 million, its midpoint coinciding with analysts’ $612 million consensus, up 10% from 2015. “Although the retail environment remains challenging, Manhattan has not seen a material change in IT purchasing trends from retails and the pipeline is still strong,” Pfau said. “However, we believe that management’s guidance takes into account a cautious retail IT spending environment for 2016.” While Manhattan’s core software manages warehouse inventory, its visualization tools allow users to see everything from the manufacturer’s supplies to the consumer’s purchase at the checkout counter. Pfau noted that 70% of its total license revenue comes from its basic warehouse management systems (WMS) license revenue, so WMS is a “leading indicator for sales of Manhattan’s other solutions.” License revenue, however, amounts to only 14% of its total revenue. Most of its sales, 77%, come from services related to its software licenses. “We will continue to be a serial investor in innovation,” Manhattan CEO Eddie Capel said in February.  

Adobe Systems Transition Earns Price-Target Hike From FBR

With its stock trading within shouting distance of its all-time high, Adobe Systems ( ADBE ) earned a price-target hike on Tuesday from investment bank FBR Capital Markets. Adobe stock was up a fraction to above 93 in midday trading on the stock market today . The provider of cloud-based media and marketing software hit a record high of 98 on March 18. It sports a good IBD Relative Strength Rating of 85, putting it among the top 15% of all stocks in performance the past 12 months. FBR analyst Samad Samana raised his price target on Adobe stock to 115 from 110 and reiterated his market perform rating. He predicts Adobe will see 20%-plus revenue growth and 30%-plus EPS growth for the next two years. Adobe has shifted its business from perpetual license software to software-as-a-service delivered over the Internet. “We believe the transition to a subscription model has yielded a more attractive business model,” Samana said. “We expect this to be reflected in fiscal 2016 and beyond.” Adobe has three cloud computing businesses: Creative Cloud, Marketing Cloud and Document Cloud. The biggest is Creative Cloud, which includes software for creative professionals such as Photoshop, Illustrator and InDesign. Marketing Cloud provides online marketing and advertising services. Document Cloud leverages Adobe’s popular online document-sharing product Acrobat and its ubiquitous PDF format. The company’s Creative Cloud business earns most of the attention, but its Marketing Cloud is maturing at the right time, Samana said. “Digital marketing is at or near the top of the priority list for enterprises, and Adobe appears well positioned to help companies transform their businesses to be more engaging with end customers,” he said in a research report. Adobe should be able to continue posting healthy growth in the digital marketing business despite competition from Alphabet ( GOOGL ), Oracle ( ORCL ), Salesforce.com ( CRM ) and others, he said. RELATED: Adobe Driving Third Wave Of Enterprise Software Disruption