Tag Archives: nysejpm

Bullish Banking Earnings Drive Up These ETFs

The financial sector, which accounts for around one-fifth of the S&P 500 index and started off 2015 as an average performer, has set an upbeat tone this earnings season. Several factors including fewer litigation charges, effective cost control measures and modest improvement in core businesses has given Q2 earnings a boost and sent shares to the positive territory. The Zacks Earnings Trend also bears evidence to this burgeoning trend especially on the earnings front. Total earnings for 41.1% of the sector’s total market capitalization (reported so far) are up 11.7% on flattish revenues (down 0.1%) with beat ratios of 68.8% and 50%, respectively. The performance bettered what we saw from this group of Finance sector companies in other recent quarters. Overall, higher investment banking activity thanks to solid deals in the U.S. ranging from mergers and acquisitions to IPOs along with loan growth, sound trading business and cost containment efforts seem to be holding the key to the recent success. Let’s take a look at the big banks’ earnings which released early this week and in the last: Big Bank Earnings in Focus JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM ) reported earnings of $1.54 per share beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.44 and improving from the year-ago earnings of $1.46. JPMorgan recorded revenues of $24.5 billion, which was marginally ahead the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $24.4 billion. However, the top line compared unfavorably with the year-ago number of $25.3 billion. Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC ) earned $1.03/share in Q2 which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny. However, the reported figure was above the year-ago number $1.01/share. The quarter’s total revenue came in at $21.3 billion, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.6 billion. But, revenues rose 1% year over year. Goldman (NYSE: GS ) earned $4.75 per share in Q2 (excluding provisions), beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.70. Net revenue declined 1% year over year to $9.1 billion but surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.8 billion. Morgan Stanley’s (NYSE: MS ) second-quarter adjusted earnings from continuing operations of 79 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 73 cents but fell from the year-ago number of 89 cents. Net revenue (excluding DVA adjustments) surged 12% year over year to $9.6 billion. Moreover, it came ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.97 billion. Citigroup Inc.’s (NYSE: C ) adjusted earnings per share of $1.45 for the quarter outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.35. Further, earnings compared favorably with the year-ago figure of $1.24. Adjusted revenues of Citigroup declined 2% year over year to $19.16 billion. Including credit valuation adjustment (CVA) and debt valuation adjustment (DVA), Citigroup revenues remained relatively stable with the prior-year period at $19.47 billion. However, the revenue figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $19.16 billion. The true star was Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC ) which turned around this season. Its second-quarter earnings of 45 cents per share outdid the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 36 cents and were way above 19 cents gains earned in the prior-year quarter. Net revenue of $22.1 billion was up 2% year over year and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.3 billion. ETF Impact Thanks to a spate of pretty decent earnings from banks last week, the related ETFs got a boost. All the aforementioned companies have considerable exposure in funds like iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF (NYSEARCA: IYG ), iShares US Financials ETF (NYSEARCA: IYF ), PowerShares KBW Bank ETF (NYSEARCA: KBWB ), Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA: XLF ) and Vanguard Financials ETF (NYSEARCA: VFH ). All these U.S. financial ETFs were in green and returned in the range of 1.1% to 3% in the last five trading sessions (as of July 20, 2015). Sluggish revenues were a drag on the banking earnings scorecard this season thanks to a still-low interest rate environment, which is however likely to tail off sometime later in 2015 as the Fed is preparing for an interest rate lift-off. Original Post

‘Wisdom Of Experts’ Portfolio: Mid-Year 2015 Update

Summary Over the past 6 months the “Wisdom of Experts” Portfolio outperformed S&P500, 5.1% vs 1.1% in an equity market that largely traded sideways. AAPL and the pharma companies were the primary drivers of the outperformance of the portfolio for the past 6 month period. After a mid-year adjustment, Apple continues to be the largest component of the portfolio at 13%. Technology, finance, and large pharma comprise 90% of the updated portfolio vs 48% of these 3 sectors in the S&P500. In December 2014 we introduced a “Wisdom of Experts” portfolio based on the top picks of the 33 large cap funds scored by Morningstar as “5-star” funds. The concept we are testing is whether a top-performing portfolio can be constructed based on the top picks of the top fund managers. We won’t know the answer to this question for many years since we need to test the portfolio through bull and bear markets. But the journey has started and for the first 6 months of its existence, the portfolio has had the opportunity to perform in a market that traded sideways – and, for this short period of time, the portfolio outperformed the S&P500 based on total return, 5.1% vs 1.1%. Background – Portfolio Construction Morningstar ranks mutual funds with a star rating, with the very best funds rated with 5-stars. When we started the portfolio in Dec 2014 Morningstar rated 33 US-based large cap equity funds as 5-stars. From these 33 funds we took their top 10 holdings and scored the top holding as a “10,” the second as a “9” and so forth down to the tenth holding, which received a “1” score. We then added up all the scores and included the top 25 companies in our portfolio (the initial portfolio contained 27 companies since 3 tied for position 25). The percentage component for each holding was based on the overall score each company received. The current 5-star large cap US equity funds are presented in the table below. Over the past 6 months Morningstar downgraded 8 funds from 5-star to 4-star, so these funds are no longer included as we adjust our portfolio. On the other hand, 5 funds were upgraded to 5-star, so we now have 30 funds to re-adjust our 2Q15 portfolio. The updated portfolio, which we present at the end of the article, was generated from the top 10 holdings of these 30 funds using the same scoring system as outlined above. During the first half of 2015 the composite total return of these 30 funds was 2.7 % which slightly outperformed the S&P500 (1.1% total return). Morningstar 5-Star Large Cap US Equity Funds (date 6/30/2015) Fund Name Ticker Fund Category 2014 Performance % 2015 Performance to June 30 Alger Capital Appreciation ALARX Large Growth 11 7.3 Becker Value Equity Retail BVEFX Large Value 7 1.6 DFA Core Equity DFEOX * Large Blend 7 — Fidelity Advisor Large Cap FALIX Large Blend 6 3.0 Fidelity Puritan FPURX Mod Alloc 9 2.8 Fidelity Blue Chip Growth FBGRX Large Growth 12 6.5 Fidelity Growth Company FDGRX Large Growth 11 6.6 Fidelity Large Cap Stock FLCSX Large Blend 7 3.2 Fidelity OTC FOCPX Large Blend 14 4.8 First Trust Value Line Div FVD Large Value 12 -1.4 FPA Crescent FPACX Mod Alloc 5 0.1 Franklin Income A FKINX * Cons Alloc 1 — Guggenheim SP500Pure Growth RPG Large Growth 11 3.0 Janus Aspen Balanced JABLX Mod Alloc 6 1.0 JP Morgan US Equity JMUEX Large Blend 11 2.9 Mairs & Power Balanced MAPOX * Mod Alloc 6 — Mairs & Power Growth MPGFX * Large Growth 4 — Oakmark Large Blend OAKMX Large Blend 8 0.1 Parnassus Core Equity PRBLX Large Blend 11 -0.8 Powershares Buyback Achievers PKW Large Blend 8 2.6 Powershares Dynamic Large Cap Value PWV Large Value 8 -0.4 Powershares FTSE RAFI US 1000 ETF PRF * Large Value 8 — PrimeCap Odessey Growth POGRX Large Growth 12 4.5 Schwab US Fundamental Large Co SFLNX * Large Value 8 — Sequoia SEQUX Large Growth 5 11.2 TR Price Blue Chip Growth TRBCX * Large Growth 7 — TR Price Cap Appr PRWCX Mod Alloc 11 4.3 Vanguard Cap Opportunity VHCOX Large Growth 17 3.8 Vanguard Equity Inc VEIPX Large Value 8 0.3 Vanguard High Div Yield VYM * Large Value 10 — Vanguard Prime Cap Core VPCCX Large Growth 18 0.2 Vanguard Prime Cap Inv VPMCX Large Growth 18 1.3 Vanguard Wellington VWELX Mod Alloc 8 0.7 New 5-Star Funds in 1H2015 John Hancock Disciplined Value JVLIX Large Value — 0.6 JP Morgan Equity Income Select HLIEX Large Value — -0.3 JP Morgan Value Adv Inst JVAIX Large Value — 1.7 Laudus US Large Cap Growth LGILX Large Growth — 6.8 TR Price Value TRVLX Large Value — 1.8 Average 9 2.7 S&P 500 Index SPY 10 1.1 * Denotes funds that were downgraded from 5-star to 4-star in the past 6 months. Six-Month Performance of the “Wisdom of Experts” Portfolio The performance of the “Wisdom of Experts” portfolio since inception in Dec 2014 is presented in the Table below. Over the past 6 months the portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500, 5.1% vs 1.1%, based on total returns that include dividends. (Total returns are based on data from Morningstar). “Wisdom of Experts” Large Cap Portfolio – 1H2015 Performance (data from 12/31/2014 through 06/30/2015) Comments on 1H2015 Performance Two of the three top holdings of the portfolio had strong gains, AAPL and JPM, while MSFT fell slightly. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) justified its selection as the #1 holding of the portfolio and was a key reason for the outperformance vs SPY. AAPL advanced 15% for the first half of 2015. Coupled with an 11% component of the portfolio, AAPL contributed to about one-third of the 5.1 % portfolio gain. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT ) lost 3% over the first 6 months of the year, mostly treading water with the rest of the overall market. JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM ), the third largest holding at 6.4%, contributed to overall gain of the portfolio with a solid 11% gain over the first half. The top performer of the portfolio over the first half of 2015 was Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN ), advancing 41%. Healthcare comprised 26% of the portfolio but accounted for half of the 5.1% gain for the portfolio in 1H2015. Top performers included GILD, LLY, BIIB, and ACT (now AGN). Gilead (NASDAQ: GILD ) advanced 24% for 1H2015, helped by a sell off right before the end of 2014 when ABBV launched Viekira Pak and made a deal with Express Scripts to exclusively use Viekira Pak. GILD countered with several exclusive deals of its own and the launch of Harvoni in the US topped most analyst expectations in 1Q. Interestingly, however, GILD has dropped out of our portfolio (see below) in the mid-year update as the top funds have perhaps questioned the sustainability of HCV revenue and earnings moving forward. Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY ), up 23% in 1H15, continues on a roll after a total return of 40% in 2014. LLY is included as a top 10 holding in only 5 of the 30 funds, but is one of the top 4 holdings in each of these funds, which is the reason for the overall high ranking of the company in our portfolio. Hopes are high for two drugs in development, evacetrapib, to lower cholesterol, and solanezumab, for Alzheimer’s. Leerink predicts a 50% probability of success for evacetrapib and a 20% to 30% probability of success for solanezumab. Biogen (NASDAQ: BIIB ) gained 19% in 1H2015 as excitement grew over its drug candidate that showed cognitive improvement in Alzheimer’s patients, the first drug candidate to do so in a meaningful way. As reported in a New York Times article , 166 patients with early stage disease participated in the study. While plaque was cleared and cognition was improved, the drug candidate caused brain swelling at the highest dose. Actavis, now renamed as Allergan with ticker AGN, gained 19% for 1H2015. This company has been built on acquisitions and is now a leader in both generics and proprietary drugs. In July 2014 Actavis acquired Forest Labs in the largest pharma M&A deal of 2014. In March of this year, Actavis completed the acquisition of Allergan to create a diversified global pharma company with $23 billion in annual sales. Dragging down the performance of the portfolio was LUV (-20%), perhaps expected after a run up of 121% in 2014, as well as the large oil stocks XOM (-9%) and CVX (-12%). PG also declined 10% as this large consumer staple company is shedding unprofitable brands and hoping to rekindle growth based on its most innovative products. Investors are perhaps wondering if this company continues to deserve its high P/E (20). As discussed below, both CVX and PG have dropped out of our portfolio at the 2015 mid-point portfolio re-adjustment. “Wisdom of Experts” Portfolio Adjustments, 2Q2015 As discussed in the background paragraph, the portfolio is comprised of the top holdings of 5-star large cap funds. These funds adjust their portfolios on a routine basis and report their holdings and percentage composition once per quarter. In addition, Morningstar has made several changes to their 5-star ratings. Nonetheless, the adjusted portfolio, as presented below, has not changed that drastically over the past 6 months. Mid-2015 Wisdom of Experts Portfolio Rank Ticker % of Portfolio Jun2015 % of portfolio Dec 2014 Dividend Yield %* Forward P/E* Beta 1 AAPL 13.0 11.2 1.5 13 1.07 2 JPM 6.4 6.4 2.3 11 1.37 3 WFC 6.3 4.4 2.5 13 0.83 4 GOOGL 6.0 5.0 0 17 0.86 5 MSFT 5.5 10.3 2.7 16 0.73 6 BIIB 5.1 3.5 0 25 0.58 7 FB 4.6 3.1 0 34 0.77 8 AMGN 4.5 4.6 1.8 15 0.63 9 AMZN 4.4 2.4 0 91 1.48 10 LLY 4.1 2.8 2.3 24 0.40 11 PFE 3.7 2.9 3.2 15 0.86 12 MRK 3.5 0 3.1 15 0.40 13 GE 3.1 2.8 3.4 17 1.56 14 JNJ 2.9 4.3 2.9 16 1.03 15 C 2.9 1.7 0.1 10 1.41 16 BAC 2.8 4.1 1.1 11 0.84 17 AGN 2.5 2.1 0 14 0.74 18 V 2.4 0 0.7 23 0.83 19 XOM 2.4 5.2 3.3 16 1.11 20 DHR 2.2 0 0.6 17 1.09 21 MA 2.1 0 0.6 23 1.36 22 RHHBY 2.1 2.7 2.8 26 0.78 23 LUV 2.1 2.2 0.7 10 0.86 24 TXN 1.8 0 2.5 17 1.16 25 IBM 1.8 0 2.8 10 0.86 Composite 1.6 19 0.93 SPY 1.9 18 1.00 *Dividend yield and forward P/E source: Morningstar. Companies in bold are new additions at mid-year readjustment. Apple remains the top holding of the portfolio, with its composition increasing from 11% to 13%. AAPL is the #1 holding in 8 of the 30 5-star funds and is a top 10 holding in 15 of the 30 funds. AAPL continues to be attractive to both value and growth fund managers. While MSFT is a significant component of the portfolio at 5.5%, its popularity among these top-rated fund managers has declined from 10% at the end of 2014. Eight companies dropped out of the portfolio: CVX, T, GILD, ORCL, PG, HD, TGT, and VZ. New additions included large pharma blue-chip Merck, industrial conglomerate Danaher, the credit card companies Visa and Mastercard, and the technology companies Texas Instruments and IBM. As shown below these changes increased the concentration of the portfolio, with 90 % of portfolio now comprised of technology, healthcare, and financial services vs 48% for SPY. Sector weighting of “Wisdom of Experts” Portfolio vs S&P500 Sector Wisdom Of Experts Portfolio Dec2014 Wisdom Of Experts Portfolio Jun2015 SPY Dec2014 SPY Jun2015 Technology 34 37 18 18 Financial services 17 24 15 15 Healthcare 26 29 15 16 Industrials 3 5 11 11 Consumer Cyclical 2 2 10 11 Consumer Defensive 5 0 10 9 Energy 8 2 8 8 Communication 5 0 4 4 Utilities 0 0 3 3 Basic Materials 0 0 3 3 Real Estate 0 0 2 2 Other Statistics of Portfolio Dividends Dividend yield of the portfolio has declined from 2.0% at inception in Dec2014 to 1.6% at mid-year and is now below the 1.9% yield of S&P500. Five companies in the portfolio have no dividend: GOOG, FB, BIIB, AMZN, and AGN. Beta Beta, a measure of volatility and risk, is slightly lower than S&P500 at 0.93 vs 1.00 for the benchmark. For this short period of time, then, the investor is benefiting from increased gains with no increase in risk. P/E The forward P/E for the portfolio is 19, very close to the S&P500 (18). Timeliness of Portfolio Adjustments One major drawback to this approach to portfolio construction and adjustment is that we do not receive real time updates of a fund’s holdings. Our portfolio cannot be nimble in making changes, as opposed to the funds which can buy or sell on real time news. Most of the funds update their holdings quarterly so we are always going to be a step behind the actions of the fund managers. As an example, our December portfolio had reasonable holdings of ExxonMobile and Chevron. Now XOM has dropped from 5.2% of the portfolio to 2.4% and CVX has completely dropped out. Fund managers may have made these changes early in 2015, but we are just now making the change to our portfolio. Nonetheless, 19 of the 27 companies that were included in the Dec 2014 portfolio are still represented today, so the portfolio does not have as much turnover or churn as might be expected. Summary The “Wisdom of Experts” is an eclectic collection of large cap companies which represent the best ideas of the best fund managers. For the first 6 months of its existence, an admittedly very short time frame, the portfolio has outperformed SPY, 5.1% vs. 1.1%. To compare to other averages, the Dow Jones Industrials, as represented by the ETF DIA, was flat for the first half of 2015. The Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ ) was up 4.0% over this time frame and was also aided by a large 14% holding in AAPL. Finally, only 5 of the 30 5-star funds had a better 1H performance than the “Wisdom of Experts” portfolio. But again, the journey is just beginning for testing if crowdsourcing the best ideas from the best fund managers is a viable investing approach. Going forward we plan to update the portfolio on a quarterly basis to capture changes made by fund managers in a more timely manner. Disclosure: I am/we are long GILD, AAPL, GE, JNJ, WFC, MRK, VZ, CVX. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Thinking And Worrying Are Not The Same Thing!

Skeptical investors usually do well, cynics do not. A high market capitalization to GDP ratio indicates capital inefficiency. Bond markets are becoming increasingly dangerous. A cynic is someone who is negative ahead of the evidence and will who only, if ever, grudgingly admit to reality. Financial markets have always been afflicted by cynical perma-bears and detractors who simply refuse to acknowledge the power of the market’s relentless upward drift in equity prices over the past two centuries. The data is unassailable. The prophets of doom are ever ready to announce the imminent collapse of the entire financial system and predict that yes, this time is truly different! In other words, they want to short civilization- a view perhaps best expressed by selling all financial assets and hoarding real property such as gold (NYSEARCA: GLD ) . Personally, I subscribe to a more optimistic Whig historiography, which while conceding setbacks, believes in the inexorable march of progress. The most fundamental aspect of successful investing is to recognize that more wealth has been created by investing in evolution and growth than has been saved by preparing for Judgment Day. However, I am paid to worry and to question my chief premises. That is my job. The U.S. equity market has had a great five-year Bull Run, but there are now clear signs of exhaustion. Maybe today’s lofty equity prices are indeed just a reflection of a highly manipulated monetary system and are due for a big correction. Is it wise to reduce exposure now that both U.S. and European equities seem to have broken out on the upside? Here are some facts: S&P 500 company year over year sales growth was 3.1% in 2014 and is forecast to decline by .2% in 2015. More troubling, year over year earnings growth looks set to rise by just 2.4% in 2015 after a 7.2% rise in 2014. Of course, the energy sector is pushing estimates down, but even some of 2014’s best performing sectors such as Heath Care (XLV ) and Utilities (XLU ) , are forecast to have big percentage earnings declines, although profit margins seem set to remain at near record highs. As always, it is certainly possible that estimates get revised up or down as 2015 plays out. Everyone knows the S&P 500 Index has doubled in price over the past five years, yet U.S. real GDP has only grown by a cumulative 12% during the same period. Admittedly, the S&P 500 index is more than a reflection of the U.S. economy, but world GDP has only grown by only 15% since 2009, not outpacing the U.S. by any noticeable margin. The much-maligned market capitalization to U.S. GDP ratio now stands at 124% – meaning that the S&P 500 is collectively worth more than all the output of the U.S. economy. An illustrative equivalence may be in order here. Individually, many companies have a single year sales or revenues far in excess of their capital. For example, Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT ) had 2013 revenues of $56bn with capital of $21bn. Similarly, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) had $183bn in sales on $112bn of capital in its latest annual report. In other words, it’s reasonable to assume that one-year sales exceed capital for many companies, yet overall capital exceeds sales for the entire S&P 500! One must wonder why so much capital is needed in aggregate to produce so little in sales. The TMC or Total Market Cap to GDP ratio is tainted by the largest banks such as JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM ) , which held $211bn of equity in 2013 to generate just $96bn is sales. Now I understand that JPM and the other banks are forced to hold much more capital that they would like to in an ideal post-2008 world. Regardless of the reasons, it is fair to conclude that the S&P 500 is too highly capitalized, in aggregate, given the sales and earnings metrics of its constituent companies in relation to overall capitalization. It simply means that on average, the return on one unit of capital will be less than if the capital was more prudently deployed. The current situation can only resolve itself in one of the five ways listed here: Sales and earnings grow at a much faster pace than forecast Companies decrease capital by increasing dividends and share buybacks There is a sudden burst in productivity, allowing companies to extract greater units of earnings from the current stock of capital The overall equity market sells off Nothing changes and GDP eventually catches up with the market cap of the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY ) I am not in the habit of making bold predictions. Each of the five outcomes listed above are possible, but the last two options, a market sell-off or no change, requires the least amount effort to succeed in bringing the TMC ratio back to a more sustainable level. The main fault with my argument here and indeed with many notions about lofty valuations needing to decline is that equities, even U.S equities, offer compelling value on a relative basis compared to bonds. At a multiple of 20x, the S&P 500 offers an earnings yield of 5% and when coupled with the dividend yield of 2%, offers investors an expected return of around 7%. That compares favorably with U.S. 10y government bonds that now offer about 2.10%. Regrettably, investors cannot spend expected returns and must wait for real returns to materialize. Nonetheless, bonds, as an asset class, are becoming increasingly dangerous. Little noticed during this past month was the doubling of Japanese 10y yields from 20 bp to 40 bp. Sure, Japan’s yields are still extraordinarily low, as are yields in Germany, the UK and, of course, here in the U.S. Volatility in the bond markets is on the rise too. See (CBOE: VXTYN). If U.S 10y government bond yields were to double from 2.10% to 4.20%, admittedly a very low probability scenario, investors would be looking at a near 18 full point loss on their holdings (200 bp * modified duration of ~9). Now I know active traders would never remain idle in the face of such a selloff, however, many passive investors, housed deep inside index funds, will see real losses mount as bond yields rise. So I think it too soon to underweight U.S. equities for the simple reason that there is nothing worth over weighting right now. Holding a reasonably diversified portfolio, suited to an investor’s goals and risk preferences, remains the best means to build real wealth and avoid the pitfalls of over-reacting to high valuations and volatility. Expanding the investable universe, both in geographic and asset class terms, will enhance a portfolio’s risk and return characteristics. Diogenes of Sinope is credited with being the world’s first great cynic. He famously said, “I am Diogenes the Dog. I nuzzle the kind, bark at the greedy and bite scoundrels.” According to legend, he carried a lamp by day in his cynical search for an honest man. Today, investors are hunting for decent returns while hoping to avoid catastrophic draw downs. That is a job for a skeptical optimist, not a scoffer of the most ordinary kind. What about the search for an honest man? I am convinced they do exist. You just need to know where to look. Disclosure: The author is long SPY. (More…) The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it. The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.