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Best S&P 500 Utility Stocks According To A Winning Ranking System: A Look At Exelon
Summary Ranking the top twenty S&P 500 utility stocks according to a winning ranking system. Explanation and back-testing of the “ValueSheet” ranking system. Description and a buy recommendation for the first-ranked stock of the system: Exelon Corporation (EXC). S&P 500 utility stocks have given, on average, a similar return to that of the S&P 500 index over the last year. The average return of the 29 S&P 500 utility stocks that are included in the S&P 500 index (included dividends) in the last 52 weeks has been 10.51%, while the S&P 500 index has returned 9.77%. The table below shows all S&P 500 utility companies, ranked according to their 52 weeks return. A Ranking system sorts stocks from best to worst based on a set of weighted factors. Portfolio123 has a ranking system which allows the user to create complex formulas according to many different criteria. They also have highly useful several groups of pre-built ranking systems, I used one of them the “ValueSheet” in this article. The “ValueSheet” ranking system is quite complex, and it is taking into account many factors like; valuation ratios, growth rates, profitability ratios, financial strength, asset utilization, technical rank, industry rank, and industry leadership, as shown in Portfolio123’s chart below. In order to find out how such a ranking formula would have performed during the last 16 years, I ran a back-test, which is available by the Portfolio123’s screener. For the back-test, I took all the 6,651 stocks in the Portfolio123’s database. The back-test results are shown in the chart below. For the back-test, I divided the 6,651 companies into twenty groups according to their ranking. The chart clearly shows that the average annual return has a very significant positive correlation to the “ValueSheet” rank. The highest ranked group with the ranking score of 95-100, which is shown by the light blue column in the chart, has given by far the best return, an average annual return of about 18%, while the average annual return of the S&P 500 index during the same period was about 3.5% (the red column at the left part of the chart). Also, the second and the third group (scored: 90-95 and 85-90) have given superior returns. This brings me to the conclusion that the ranking system is very useful. After running the “ValueSheet” ranking system on all S&P 500 utility stocks on August 09, I discovered the twenty best stocks, which are shown in the table below. In this article, I will focus on the first-ranked stock; Exelon Corporation (NYSE: EXC ). (click to enlarge) On July 29, Exelon reported its second quarter 2015 results and narrowed its full-year operating earnings guidance to $2.35 to $2.55 per share. Exelon achieved earnings above its guidance range in the quarter, led by a strong financial performance at Constellation. The company beat EPS expectations in the last quarter by $0.05 (9.3%). The major drivers for the beat were reduced outages at ExGen’s nuclear plants and lower uncollectibles at Baltimore Gas & Electric. Revenue grew 5.1% to $6.51 billion in the period. Exelon showed earnings per share surprise in its last two-quarters after missing estimates in the previous quarter, as shown in the table below. Source: Yahoo Finance Despite low power prices and challenging market conditions in the wholesale power markets, I see healthy growth prospects for the company. The proposed all-cash acquisition, pending approvals, of Pepco (NYSE: POM ), will help to boost Exelon’s earnings growth rate. The merger continues to be conditioned upon approval by the Public Service Commission of the District of Columbia. Exelon expects the merger to be completed in the third quarter of 2015. On the regulated side, the forthcoming Pepco merger should bring opportunities for investment and operational improvement, as well as an additional regulated earnings stream to support the dividend. Also, the coming industry coal plant retirements will lower future reserve margins and would lead to higher electricity prices. In another development, the company plans, in September, to decide what nuclear plant will be retired due to uneconomic operational conditions. Exelon continues to evaluate the viability of three of its nuclear plants in Illinois (Byron, Quad Cities, and Clinton) given that the Illinois legislative session ended without a resolution on the low carbon portfolio. Valuation EXC’s stock has underperformed the market in the last few years. The stock is down 12.5% year-to-date while the S&P 500 index has increased 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index has gained 6.5%. Moreover, since the beginning of 2013, EXC’s stock has gained only 9.1% while the S&P 500 index has increased 45.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index has risen 67%. However, In my opinion, EXC’s stock is a clear value with the stock having faded more than its fundamentals and key catalysts. (click to enlarge) Chart: TradeStation Group, Inc. Exelon’s valuation metrics are excellent, the trailing P/E is very low at 11.97, the forward P/E is low at 13.40, and its price-to-sales ratio is also very low at 0.95. Furthermore, its Enterprise Value/EBITDA ratio is very low at 6.76, the lowest among all S&P 500 utility stocks. Source: Portfolio123 Exelon is paying a generous dividend. The forward annual dividend yield is pretty high at 3.82% and the payout ratio is at 45.8%. However, the annual rate of dividend growth over the past five years was negative at -10%. Summary Exelon delivered better than expected second quarter results and narrowed its full-year operating earnings guidance to $2.35 to $2.55 per share. Exelon achieved earnings above its guidance range in the quarter, led by a strong financial performance at Constellation. Despite low power prices and challenging market conditions in the wholesale power markets, I see healthy growth prospects for the company. The proposed all-cash acquisition, pending approvals, of Pepco, will help to boost Exelon’s earnings growth rate. Exelon has compelling valuation; its EV/EBITDA ratio of 6.76 is the lowest among all S&P 500 utility stocks. In my view, the recent retreat in its price offers an excellent opportunity to buy the stock at a cheap price. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Exelon Cements Credentials As A Long-Term Stock
Summary Growth investments directed at improving generational assets and growing regulated asset base will ensure rate base growth and earnings stability for the company in the long run. Recent POM acquisition approval is signaling that EXC’s regulated EPS growth will improve in coming quarters. Future cash flows remain strong due to EXC’s efforts to have a large, regulated asset base. I reiterate my bullish stance on Exelon Corporation (NYSE: EXC ); the company is making good progress on its plan to have an extended regulated asset base through acquisitions and investments. EXC’s ongoing capital investments in several infrastructure development projects will add value to shareholder wealth, which will portend well for the stock price. Moreover, the company’s nuclear operation divesture plan is still under consideration; the plan, if approved, will strengthen EXC’s competitive position in the long run. The company’s rapidly growing regulated asset base provides a foundation for stable earnings and cash flow base, which will support dividend growth in future years. EXC currently offers an attractive dividend yield of 3.9%. Attractive Long-Term Growth Path Since the start of 2015, the volatile interest rate environment has weighed on utility stocks, and the utility sector underperformed the broad market in 1H’15. Owing to improving economic conditions in the U.S., the Fed is likely to increase short-term interest rates in 2H’15, which will put pressure on the stock prices of utility companies, including EXC. Despite the fear of a rise in interest rates, I believe EXC’s performance in the coming quarters will stay strong, mainly supported by the correct strategic efforts of the company. EXC, along with other utility companies in the industry, including American Electric Power (NYSE: AEP ) and PPL Corp. (NYSE: PPL ), have a robust capital spending outlook, which will support earnings growth in the next five years. EXC is following the industry norm by making hefty growth investments and acquisitions in regulated business to secure its long-term growth. During 2014, EXC spent almost $1.78 billion on several infrastructural growth-related projects, up 46.6% year-over-year. As per its recent sustainability report, the company has invested around $3.1 billion for electric and gas utility infrastructure, which includes a $500 million investment in the installation of smart meter technology during 2015. I believe the company’s recent approach to provide safe and reliable energy is bringing convenience for customers in a way that creates value for it over the long term. Another important area of investment has been EXC’s increased focus on improving its power generation capacity through the expansion and improvement of the gas business. In this regard, the company’s previously acquired 6 natural gas power plants in Maryland have started operations from June 28. The 128MW power plants will benefit EXC by improving its natural gas production capacity in the Maryland state and will ultimately add towards its rate base growth and positively affect the stock price. Moreover, the company has recently received approval for the much-awaited PEPCO Holdings (NYSE: POM ) merger from the Delaware Public Service Commission (PSC); the $6.8 billion merger is expected to complete in 2H’15, which will strengthen the company’s regulated operations and will positively affect the stock price. The upside of this merger rests in improving the EXC business and financial risk profile, as its regulated operations will increase; the company’s management expects that the merger will add nearly 15 cents-to-20 cents to EXC’s EPS during the first full year of operation. In fact, a rate base of nearly $26 billion has been projected for the combined entity, which indicates significant upside for its future ROE and cash flows. Moving ahead, under its plan of making strategic investments in diversifying the power generation portfolio, the company is planning to spend around $16 billion over the next five years, which I believe will enhance EXC’s future financial performance. On the other side, the company’s plan to shut down its loss making, Illinois-based 6 out of 11 nuclear power plants is still on hold. Recently, five of these nuclear units have failed to clear PJM’s base residual auction; despite the inability of its nuclear units to qualify for the PJM rate base auction, analysts are hoping that EXC will generate $150 million more in capacity revenue during 2017-2018 than it would have attained if all of its capacity had cleared the auction. However, the failure to qualify for the PJM auction has strengthened the company’s case before legislatures to shut down the nuclear plants. So, either the FERC should support them or LCPS standards should be changed to support its nuclear operations. While EXC is still in talks with the FERC to lower LCPS standards, I continue to believe that the closure of nuclear power plants is positively affecting the company’s performance in the long term, and will allow the company to focus more on stable regulated operations. EXC has an attractive dividend payment plan, which is strongly backed by its healthy cash flow base. Thus far, its healthy dividend payments have earned the company a decent dividend yield of 3.9% and a modest payout ratio of 48% , which indicates that there is significant room left for further dividend hikes, if the company opts to increase the payout ratio. Given EXC’s strong commitment to having a large, regulated asset base, I continue to believe in the security and sustainability of EXC’s future cash flow base, which ensures dividend stability and dividend growth in the years ahead. I recommend investors to keep track of the upcoming 2Q’15 earnings, as the company will provide an update on its capital expenditure outlook and will discuss its plans to increase regulated operations, which could have a significant impact on the stock price. According to the company’s guidance, EXC is expected to report EPS in a range of $0.45-$0.55 for Q2’15. In contrast, analysts are anticipating EPS of $0.51 for 2Q’15. The following table shows analysts; EPS forecast for EXC’s 2Q’15. Consensus EPS Forecast Low EPS Forecast High EPS Forecast 2Q’15 $0.51 $0.48 $0.55 Source: Nasdaq.com Risks The company continues to face operational and financial risk from its nuclear energy generation assets. Moreover, uncertainty about regulatory rate approvals, changes in national energy demand, stringent environmental standards and unforeseen negative economic changes are key risks that might hamper EXC’s future stock price performance. Conclusion I am bullish on EXC and believe the company will deliver a healthy performance in the long term. The company’s growth investments directed at improving its generational assets and growing its regulated asset base will ensure rate base growth and earnings stability in the long run. Furthermore, the recent POM acquisition approval is signaling that EXC’s regulated EPS growth will improve in the coming quarters. Moreover, the company’s future cash flows remain strong due to its efforts to have a large, regulated asset base, which will support dividend growth and make dividends more stable. Analysts have also projected a healthy next five-years earnings growth of 4.9% for EXC, as shown below in the chart. Source: Nasdaq.com Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.