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Bullish Banking Earnings Drive Up These ETFs

The financial sector, which accounts for around one-fifth of the S&P 500 index and started off 2015 as an average performer, has set an upbeat tone this earnings season. Several factors including fewer litigation charges, effective cost control measures and modest improvement in core businesses has given Q2 earnings a boost and sent shares to the positive territory. The Zacks Earnings Trend also bears evidence to this burgeoning trend especially on the earnings front. Total earnings for 41.1% of the sector’s total market capitalization (reported so far) are up 11.7% on flattish revenues (down 0.1%) with beat ratios of 68.8% and 50%, respectively. The performance bettered what we saw from this group of Finance sector companies in other recent quarters. Overall, higher investment banking activity thanks to solid deals in the U.S. ranging from mergers and acquisitions to IPOs along with loan growth, sound trading business and cost containment efforts seem to be holding the key to the recent success. Let’s take a look at the big banks’ earnings which released early this week and in the last: Big Bank Earnings in Focus JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM ) reported earnings of $1.54 per share beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.44 and improving from the year-ago earnings of $1.46. JPMorgan recorded revenues of $24.5 billion, which was marginally ahead the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $24.4 billion. However, the top line compared unfavorably with the year-ago number of $25.3 billion. Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC ) earned $1.03/share in Q2 which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny. However, the reported figure was above the year-ago number $1.01/share. The quarter’s total revenue came in at $21.3 billion, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.6 billion. But, revenues rose 1% year over year. Goldman (NYSE: GS ) earned $4.75 per share in Q2 (excluding provisions), beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.70. Net revenue declined 1% year over year to $9.1 billion but surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.8 billion. Morgan Stanley’s (NYSE: MS ) second-quarter adjusted earnings from continuing operations of 79 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 73 cents but fell from the year-ago number of 89 cents. Net revenue (excluding DVA adjustments) surged 12% year over year to $9.6 billion. Moreover, it came ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.97 billion. Citigroup Inc.’s (NYSE: C ) adjusted earnings per share of $1.45 for the quarter outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.35. Further, earnings compared favorably with the year-ago figure of $1.24. Adjusted revenues of Citigroup declined 2% year over year to $19.16 billion. Including credit valuation adjustment (CVA) and debt valuation adjustment (DVA), Citigroup revenues remained relatively stable with the prior-year period at $19.47 billion. However, the revenue figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $19.16 billion. The true star was Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC ) which turned around this season. Its second-quarter earnings of 45 cents per share outdid the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 36 cents and were way above 19 cents gains earned in the prior-year quarter. Net revenue of $22.1 billion was up 2% year over year and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.3 billion. ETF Impact Thanks to a spate of pretty decent earnings from banks last week, the related ETFs got a boost. All the aforementioned companies have considerable exposure in funds like iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF (NYSEARCA: IYG ), iShares US Financials ETF (NYSEARCA: IYF ), PowerShares KBW Bank ETF (NYSEARCA: KBWB ), Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA: XLF ) and Vanguard Financials ETF (NYSEARCA: VFH ). All these U.S. financial ETFs were in green and returned in the range of 1.1% to 3% in the last five trading sessions (as of July 20, 2015). Sluggish revenues were a drag on the banking earnings scorecard this season thanks to a still-low interest rate environment, which is however likely to tail off sometime later in 2015 as the Fed is preparing for an interest rate lift-off. Original Post

Market Beginners Portfolio – July Update

Summary The Market Beginners Portfolio has had a difficult time over the past few months. The portfolio has significant potential for future growth. I chose to invest in Frontier Communication Corporation because of the future opportunity it provides. Introduction As many of my subscribers know, I have written a large number of portfolios talking for a variety of different goals. However, the original Market Beginners Portfolio represented my first attempt at creating a portfolio designed for someone incorporating multiple different points of view. The overall goal of this portfolio is to create a sample portfolio for someone with $100,000 to invest. The portfolio will be composed of both ETFs and Individual Stocks designed to maximize both safety and income for the portfolio. However, rather than focusing on just income for the portfolio, I will also be focusing on overall stock growth. This portfolio is centered towards overall growth and that involves growth both in the form of income and portfolio value. Rules Discipline is the backbone of any major portfolio. As a result, any good portfolio requires at least a few rules to help keep things in balance. This portfolio has two. The first rule is no new money may be added to the portfolio. While this is not a restriction most people generally face, it is helpful for managing a portfolio and as a result is a rule I include in most of my portfolios. The second rule is that no stock or ETF may make up more than 20% of the portfolio. While having different ETFs or secure stocks may help with the portfolio’s safety, minimizing your positions in different stocks helps to maintain your portfolio’s security. Portfolio Stock Name (Ticker) Number of Shares Purchase Price Current Price Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ ) 100 $100.55 $100.09 Chevron (NYSE: CVX ) 100 $107.70 $93.14 Pimco Strategic Income Fund (NYSE: RCS ) 1000 $9.19 $8.49 Bank of America (NYSE: BAC ) 1000 $16.47 $18.10 Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON ) 100 $118.25 $107.07 Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA: VTI ) 100 $108.73 $109.96 Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (NYSEARCA: VIG ) 200 $81.18 $80.77 Original Portfolio Value: $85,430 Total Cash: $14,570 Current Portfolio Value: $83,770 Current Cash: $14,570 Change In Portfolio Value: -1.94% Portfolio Discussion The portfolio has had a relatively difficult time – it has lost 1.94% over the past few months. Much of this loss is due to a decrease in the prices of Chevron, Pimco Strategic Income Fund, and Monsanto Company. However, the portfolio has done an impressive job in Bank of America seeing that position increase by almost $2000. This helped offset some of the other more significant losses for the portfolio. As for decisions, I am choosing to keep the portfolio relatively simple. However, at this time I am making a 1000 share purchase in Frontier Communications Corporation (NASDAQ: FTR ) at $5.14 per share. That takes the cash position of the portfolio down to $9430. Frontier Communications Corporation is a solid company that has had a difficult time dropping from $8.42 earlier in the year. However, management at the company is solid and the company offers a 8.17% dividend at current prices. Cash I continue to hold a significant cash stake in the portfolio amounting to almost 10% of its assets. Future dividends should help to increase the portfolio’s cash position. The market is currently near all time highs and I am hoping to be able to let the portfolio’s cash position grow until better opportunities can be identified. Conclusion The portfolio has had a difficult time recently losing almost 2% of its value. Despite significant losses in other regions, the portfolio managed to make some of the losses back due to a significant increase in the value of Bank of America. I also chose to invest in Frontier Communications Corporation this month. The company has had a difficult time in recent months and as a result now offers a significant dividend amounting to over 8%. I hope to see this portfolio recover and continue growing in future months. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Up 20% In 3 Months Since My Recommendation, Sell EUO Stakes Now

The ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO) ETF is up 20% over the three months since I recommended it, but I’m suggesting investors close their stakes here. The factors that came against the euro are about to reverse, and I see the euro gaining strength against the dollar near-term. A favorable Greece resolution is imminent in my opinion, and the European economy is steadying. The dollar is overextended versus the euro and against other currencies and should give way now, and thus the EUO ETF’s success should end here. In mid-November, I suggested investors buy the ProShares UltraShort Euro (NYSE: EUO ). Today I’m suggesting investors close the position and take the 20% profit earned over the 3 month period. I see the factors that have worked against the euro about to reverse, so sell the EUO ETF and take your gain. Holding Period Chart of EUO +20% at Seeking Alpha If you agreed with my investment thesis on the EUO ETF shared on November 19, 2014 when I suggested investors buy the ProShares UltraShort Euro , well then you have generated a 20% paper profit in the three month holding period through the February 13 close. It’s now time to close the stake, as I am anticipating the euro will strengthen against the dollar from here. My main thesis in the aforementioned report was keyed on a potential Russian rebuttal to Europe’s hand in sanctions against it. However, the curiously timed and perhaps not coincidental drop in oil prices that occurred this winter handcuffed Russia, in my opinion. It seems to have effectively kept the cash-strapped, energy based Russian Federation from acting in the manner I anticipated it might. I speculated Russia could cut off the flow of energy into Europe in the middle of winter and harm the euro’s value against the dollar. While this is still possible, the also curiously timed recently stepped up effort by European leaders to drive a peace initiative between Ukraine and the Russian backed rebels in the East of the country is serving the same purpose, again keeping Russia from acting against Europe. Importantly, in my November report, I also said that a weakening European economy and the potential for European Central Bank (ECB) extraordinary action had been serving the dollar versus the euro and should continue to add support to the dollar. This proved to be a continuing driver against the euro, assisted by the critical political developments in Greece that later followed. In essence, the Greek issue took the place of my Russian factor and drove the euro down versus the dollar, and led the ProShares UltraShort Euro up 20% over the three month period. Intensifying fear of a Greek exit from the euro-zone has been the booster of the dollar against the euro year-to-date, and affected a great deal more than just the currencies in my opinion. In the uncertainty, demand for U.S. treasuries drove U.S. interest rates down, and thus major U.S. financial sector issues in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC ), J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM ) and others. The stronger dollar has played an important role in the fall of oil prices along with supply issues in my view. And the uncertainty around Europe and how it might affect the United States economy worked against U.S. equities this year in my view. But all this is about to change. I anticipate a favorable resolution between Greece and its European partners is imminent. The removal of the palpable fear that has gathered around this issue should serve a U.S. market rally in my opinion. Improving expectations have already begun to drive U.S. interest rates higher, and the dollar recently gave way a bit to the euro. European economic expectations are also improving in my opinion and Japan just exited recession . As the euro gains its strength back against the overextended dollar, the EUO ETF, which is a bet against the euro, should give way. Thus, while still ahead of the announcement of a Greek deal, you have time momentarily to close the investment I suggested in November. If you need a place to invest your gains from the EUO play, on the same thesis, I have recently suggested investors look to: the UDN ETF contra-dollar investment; or a short of the UUP ETF ; and a short of the iPath S&P VIX (NYSE: VXX ); or long investments in financial sector beneficiary Bank of America , which should rise on higher U.S. interest rates. Also, I’ve suggested Greek issues including the National Bank of Greece (NYSE: NBG ) and the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK ). Readers may review my column for more. Disclosure: The author is long GREK, NBG, BAC. (More…) The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: I’m short VXX and UUP.