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Seeking Alpha Globally

Summary Today, investing ideas outside of the US are underrepresented. Seeking Alpha should adopt a more international focus. Opportunities abound from Russia, to China and South Korea. I love my country. I have had family members fight, bleed, and die in every one of America’s wars since the founding. While I enjoy travelling as much as possible, I am always grateful to come home (okay except from New Zealand, but almost always grateful to come home). StW members come from around the world; so should our investments. As much as I love America, fixating on the US market when it comes to investing can be an expensive mistake. Additionally, since launching Sifting the World , I have gotten to know dozens of members from around the world who would be interested in discussing more international investing ideas. Today Seeking Alpha is US-centric in terms of editorial focus and technological ability to, for example, accept foreign tickers. A more global aperture is one of the exciting new directions that it can grow in under the new leadership . America in Context In terms of the opportunity set, it is worth placing the US in context. It represents about 2% of Earth’s surface area and 7% of its land. We are 5% of the population. The market cap is between a third and a half of the world equity market cap. But the gross domestic product is only about a fifth of the world’s combined GDP. So in terms of the pursuit of investing ideas, it might be reasonable to look for at least half abroad. In fact, it might make sense to go for the 80% that is proportionate to the non-US GDP of the rest of the world. There are opportunities there today. Also, country share of the world GDP is hardly static. So having a geographically diverse portfolio can avoid overweighting dominant markets when they eventually decline, as they all eventually have done in the past. Home Country Bias Investors around the world overweight exposure to companies in their home countries. This lack of diversification is caused in part by the preference to be exposed to the familiar. But investors should try to be rational and the home country bias is ubiquitous but not rational. Like the children in Lake Wobegon, we cannot all be “above average”. This illusory superiority results from a dangerous and expensive cognitive bias. Comparing countries I compare country markets on the basis of economic freedom, corruption, currency, courts, and legal systems. These are the factors that form my basis of an opinion on whether my rights as an investor will be protected. When I invest, I actively engage with boards and managements to ensure that they are maximizing shareholder value. Often, this is a collaborative, mutually beneficial process. Occasionally, it is confrontational and litigious. So, it is important to know ahead of time whether my rights can be enforced. I analyze transparency before fundamentals, because there is little use in finding a bargain if the numbers are false. For example, as recently as 2011, over 60% of my short ideas were Chinese. Had their numbers been real (they were fraudulent), they would have been among my favorite long ideas. But before one valued them, it was worth a deep investigation into the fact that they were lying in their financials and that there was little that an American investor could do about it. Once country markets are weighted by the above attributes, I turn to fundamental valuation metrics. I blend a combination of price relative to earnings, cash flow (with an emphasis on cash flow from operations), book value, and sales. I also look at dividend yield and the cyclically adjusted PE ratio/CAPE. None of these metrics gives me an answer, but a blend gives me a bracket in which to place individual countries. International Opportunities What recent opportunities have arisen? I would start by answering that question by saying that the answer based upon transparency and fundamentals had little overlap with my intuition. One measures in part because intuition is so often faulty. I have shorted equities in countries that I love (I am a lifelong Sinophile with an admiration for Chinese history and culture that surpasses most of my Chinese friends) and bought equities in countries where I have deep reservations (Russia’s government has horribly persecuted friends of mine). I subjected each country around the world to analysis, isolating a number of promising candidates for extra scrutiny. Additionally, I have spent more time on countries with equities at particular bargains. In the course of this analysis, I moved beyond my daily focus on securities in North America ( Canada , a market that I love, being so close and familiar that it hardly feels foreign). Three that particularly stood out were Russia, China, and South Korea. Over the course of the past year, I have dedicated extra research to those three. Russia Russia has been a favorite long idea of mine since last December. My primary tool for implementing this thesis has been shorting the leveraged inverse Russian ETF RUSS . I discussed the idea in December and again in February . To date, it is down over 70% and will probably decline further over time. Specific actionable securities Prospectively, what is the best way to get Russian exposure? My current favorite is EOS Russia (ISIN-code: SE 0002016261). Shares of this fund, which are primarily dedicated to Russian electric distribution, cost 1.4x EV/EBITDA, 1.8x P/E, and 10% of book value. China China has been a favorite short idea of mine since April . I shorted the leveraged ETF, YINN . It has declined by over 30% since then but could fall further as Chinese companies allow halted securities to trade freely. Specific actionable securities In addition to shorting YINN via equity or options, you may consider a long in one of the more promising Chinese ADRs with takeover offers as a YINN hedge. My favorites include Taomee (NYSE: TAOM ) and YY (NASDAQ: YY ). South Korea My favorite country market is South Korea . For Korean exposure without having to pick through individual securities, I have a high level of confidence in Weiss Korea Opportunity Fund ( OTCPK:WISKF ). Specific actionable securities A favorite South Korean equity of mine which might be worth your consideration is Ilsung Pharma (003120). Ilsung is a small but profitable pharma company with a pile of cash and 2% ownership in Samsung C&T (000830 KS). It cost about two-thirds the value of its liquid cash and securities and about half of its book value. It is worth book. Samsung C&T is part of the Samsung chaebol which owns stakes in various businesses, the most valuable of which is Samsung Electronics. The Lee family that controls Samsung is trying to merge Cheil Industries with Samsung C&T. Elliott Associates owns over 7% of Samsung C&T and opposes the deal. The vote is on Friday July 17 and it will be a close one. If it goes through, it will strengthen the hand of heir apparent Lee Jae-yong. Based upon his position as Vice Chairman of Samsung Electronics and his economic stakes in the chaebol’s components, he is likely to emerge as the family leader in the future. Elliott’s concerns appear to be wholly valid. The transaction appears to be a form of self-dealing that massively understates the value of Samsung C&T in absolute terms and relative to Cheil. The key question is whether or not Elliott’s form of activism will work in Korea this time. The vote requires the support of two-thirds of votes cast. The National Pension Service, which owns eleven percent, has dutifully closed ranks in favor of the deal. Elliott will probably need to convince another fifteen percent to vote against the deal in order to block it. As of today, the deal and Samsung generally appear to be firmly in Lee control. But if that changes, there could be additional value for Samsung C&T holders. Whether or not Elliott wins (and I hope that they do as their victory would enrich all fellow Samsung C&T holders and further open up Samsung and Korea generally to shareholder scrutiny), Samsung C&T is quite cheap at a discount to NAV of over 40%. Conclusion We can each be as patriotic about our home as we like, and while it can be a strong feeling, patriotism is an emotion. Investing is about thinking. The marketplace should be a meritocracy in which the best ideas, products, and investments win. To that end, we should constantly search the world for foreign opportunities that are better than what we have at home. Disclosure: I am/we are short YINN. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: Chris DeMuth Jr is a portfolio manager at Rangeley Capital. Rangeley invests with a margin of safety by buying securities at deep discounts to their intrinsic value and unlocking that value through corporate events. In order to maximize total returns for our investors, we reserve the right to make investment decisions regarding any security without further notification except where such notification is required by law.

Shorting China Based On GDP Growth Rate Projections Is Highly Risky

Summary China is looking at record trade surpluses in 2015, which should boost GDP growth. Many China shorts assume GDP growth moves in one direction instead of up and down. Shorting based on projections is risky, especially when there are many factors that can throw off these projections. China’s trade surplus is currently trending up. After a relatively quiet first quarter in 2014, the balance of trade improved drastically throughout the remainder of the year. In fact, the country recorded a record monthly trade surplus of $54.5 billion last November . For the whole of 2014, the trade surplus soared by 47 percent over the previous year and wound up at a record $382.46 billion. (click to enlarge) What’s driving the trade surplus and why they may continue The drastic change in the balance of trade is not all that surprising when the fall in commodity prices is taken into account. Since China is the biggest importer of many commodities, it makes a big difference when it is able to pay less. To illustrate the drop in commodities, the Continuous Commodities Index is down by almost 14 percent over the last 12 months and continues to go down. Crude oil, the most important commodity, is down by more than half. The drop occurred in the second half of the year and accelerated by late November. This will have an impact since China imported 6.17 million barrels per day in 2014, an increase of 9.5 percent over the prior year. With commodities going the way they are, China can expect continued bumper trade surpluses. Trade surpluses should be especially high for at least the next two quarters due to the high base of the preceding year. Barring a drastic rebound in commodity prices, the trade surplus in 2015 is very likely to be substantially higher than the one in 2014, which was already a record setting number. Why China’s trade surplus matters Trade surplus matters because it influences GDP growth. In fact, one of the main components of GDP calculated using the expenditure approach is net exports. The difference between exports and imports, can be a trade surplus or trade deficit. Therefore, a large or increasing trade surplus will boost GDP growth assuming all else remains the same and can help offset weaknesses elsewhere to a certain extent. GDP growth in China is in turn one of the most closely watched metrics by many people. The reason why is simple. As the second largest economy, China is one of the most important markets for many companies around the world. Certain sectors such as commodities are especially sensitive to whatever goes on in China. (click to enlarge) For the fourth quarter of 2014, GDP growth rate came in at 7.3 percent. GDP growth rate for the whole of 2014 was 7.4 percent. The expectation was for 7.2 percent and 7.3 percent respectively. The target set by the Chinese government at the beginning of the year was for “about 7.5 percent” annual GDP growth. China shorts assume that China’s growth rate will go down However, despite GDP growth beating expectations, there are many who remain bearish when it comes to China. For instance, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects GDP growth to come in at 6.8 percent for 2015 and 6.3 percent the following year. There are others who are even more bearish. With so much negative sentiment around, it’s no wonder that some may be tempted to short China. The thinking is that a slowing economy will have a negative impact on company earnings, which in turn should affect their valuation. Shorting makes sense in such a situation. However, since there is no one who can accurately predict the future, it’s not possible to say for certain what will happen in the future. It may or may not be true. In other words, expectations that China’s growth rate will continue to go down may be misplaced. (click to enlarge) China shorts will point out that the current growth rate is much less than the double digit growth in previous years. However, contrary to what is often reported, double digit growth in China is actually the exception and not the norm. GDP growth rate does not move in a straight line, but goes up and down along the way. There are many factors that can throw projections off course Record trade surpluses are just one factor that can result in China’s growth rate coming in above expectations. For instance, the IMF originally expected China’s GDP growth for 2014 to come in at 7.2 percent early in the year. They later raised this to match the official government target. In other words, the projections for 2015 could be adjusted upwards in the coming months just like the IMF did the previous year. Furthermore, the Chinese government is a wild card as it has several options available to influence GDP growth. For instance, the one year benchmark lending rate is at 5.6 percent, which is quite high in an era where low interest rates are common. Besides interest rates, reserve requirements for banks is at 20 percent. China also has fiscal reserves that could be used. Depending on what target the Chinese government sets for 2015, it may deploy some or all of the available options. All of which can throw projections way off course, which would have negative implications for shorts that are banking on projections coming true. Shorting China based on GDP growth expectations is therefore highly risky and not recommended.