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Ongoing Exit From Equity Funds Continues 20-Week Streak

“}); $$(‘#article_top_info .info_content div’)[0].insert({bottom: $(‘mover’)}); } $(‘article_top_info’).addClassName(test_version); } SeekingAlpha.Initializer.onDOMLoad(function(){ setEvents();}); By Jeff Tjornehoj Equity mutual fund investors withdrew an estimated $920 million net for the week. Not surprisingly, they pulled money from domestic equity mutual funds (-$2.2 billion)-for a twentieth consecutive week of net outflows for the group. Equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net inflows of $7.8 billion, although investors turned their backs on emerging markets products (-$346 million) to avoid excess risk. The week’s biggest equity ETF recipient was the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF ((NYSEARCA: SPY ) , +$3.0 billion), while modest selling hit the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ((NYSEARCA: EEM ) , -$342 million ) and the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF ((NYSEARCA: IVV ) , -$477 million). Bond mutual fund investors freaked out on High Yield Funds and pulled $1.7 billion net from that Lipper classification to send taxable bond funds as a whole to a negative $3.4 billion for the week. Mutual fund investors pumped some cash into Lipper’s Core Bond Funds (+$737 million) and Core Plus Bond Funds (+$271 million) classifications. Bond ETF investors pulled $1.8 billion from their accounts to create combined (mutual funds and ETFs) outflows of $5.2 billion-for the largest bond fund outflows since the last week of December 2014. The week’s top individual destination for bond ETF investors was the PowerShares DB USD Bull ETF ((NYSEARCA: UUP ) , +$89 million); outflows of $666 million hit the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: HYG ) . Municipal bond mutual fund investors pulled $421 million from their accounts for the seventh weekly net outflow in a row. Money market funds saw net outflows of $10.8 billion, of which institutional investors pulled $12.6 billion and retail investors added $1.9 billion. Share this article with a colleague

The 6 Best Passive Large-Cap ETFs

By Michael Rawson The S&P 500 outperformed 80% of active managers in 2014 and beat the small-cap Russell 2000 Index by more than 8 percentage points. Strong fund flows reflected investor preference for large-cap funds as the three exchange-traded funds with the strongest flows in 2014 each track the S&P 500, an index of large-capitalization stocks. While the S&P 500 is the most popular, it is not the only large-cap index that investors can choose. A total stock market index fund is usually the most efficient way for index investors to get exposure to the U.S. stock market because they offer comprehensive coverage of the market with very low turnover. However, there are at least two scenarios where it could make sense to hold separate size segment funds. They could be appropriate for investors who want to give an overweighting to certain size segments, such as small-cap stocks, when they believe that segment will outperform. However, it is very difficult to consistently get these calls right. Because different size segments tend to exhibit different risk and return characteristics, investors could also use these funds to exercise more control over their strategic portfolio allocations. In addition, investors may use size segment funds to balance out a portfolio of active managers. The chart below illustrates the annualized volatility and return for stocks sorted by market capitalization and grouped by quintile dating back to 1926. While smaller-cap stocks have generally offered higher returns over the very long term, there have been several market cycles that favored different size segments. The S&P 500 beat the Russell 2000 each year from 1994 through 1998, but that reversed in each year from 1999 through 2004. – source: Morningstar Analysts There is no industry-agreed-upon definition for large cap , so each index provider defines the large-cap universe in its own way. Morningstar defines large cap as all of the largest stocks, which in aggregate make up 70% of the market value of all stocks; this currently corresponds to stocks with a market cap larger than $17 billion. In terms of index performance, it’s a statistical dead heat. Because the indexes have similar risk and return profiles, the choice of which ETF to use largely comes down to factors such as fees, liquidity, tax efficiency, and personal issues such as which brokerage platform is used or how the other assets in the portfolio are positioned. There are 11 ETFs that track market-cap-weighted passive indexes, excluding mega-cap and total stock market funds that also land in the large-blend Morningstar Category. In terms of fees, they charge between 0.04% and 0.20%. While these fees are low relative to the average large-blend mutual fund, which charges 1.1%, there is no reason to pay more than necessary. We can eliminate the funds charging 0.20%. In fact, it is somewhat odd that iShares is willing to charge just 0.07% for iShares Core S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: IVV ) but charges 0.15% for iShares Russell 1000 (NYSEARCA: IWB ) , which offers similar exposure. The expense ratio is just one aspect of cost. Trading costs also have an impact on total return. While the underlying stocks in each of these indexes are mostly the same and are all liquid, some of the ETFs with fewer assets trade less and have wider bid-ask spreads. For example, the iShares MSCI USA (NYSEARCA: EUSA ) has just $57 million in assets and trades less than $1 million of volume a day. The average bid-ask spread of 17 basis points would quickly eat into the returns of a frequent trader. In contrast, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) trades more than $20 billion a day, and its bid-ask spread is frequently less than 1 basis point. U.S. equity ETFs tend to be tax-efficient because of their ability to transfer low-cost-basis shares out of the portfolio through in-kind redemptions. However, there have been instances where they have issued capital gains. This is more likely to happen to ETFs with a smaller asset base or trading volume or that happen to switch indexes. The only ETF in this group that has issued a capital gains distribution in the past 14 years is SPDR Russell 1000 ETF (NYSEARCA: ONEK ) . Personal factors also enter into the equation. Brokers such as Schwab, Vanguard, and Fidelity offer trading commission discounts for using certain ETFs (check with your broker). A $10 savings per trade can have a big impact for those investing small sums or making frequent trades. Investors should also consider how their choice will have an impact on their overall portfolio. Investors who already have assets with one index family may want to stick with that suite of index products. For example, if you have a Russell 2000 fund for small-cap exposure, you may want to use a Russell 1000 fund for large-cap exposure to avoid overlaps. After eliminating the higher-cost, less-liquid, and less-tax-efficient ETFs from the list of 11, we are left with IVV, SPY, IWB, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: VOO ) , Vanguard Large-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: VV ) , and Schwab US Large-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHX ) . These funds track the four market-cap-weighted indexes in the table below. S&P 500 Unlike the other indexes listed, the constituents of the S&P 500 are selected by a committee that has some discretion over which stocks make it into the index and has stricter rules regarding public float and profitability for new index additions. These rules do not have much of an impact for large caps but can have a bigger impact for small caps. In addition, S&P does not follow a set rebalancing calendar, which helps to keep turnover low. Of the four indexes, S&P has the highest average market cap and includes the fewest mid-cap stocks. The lower exposure to mid-caps explains why the S&P 500 slightly underperformed the other indexes. However, the S&P MidCap 400 outperformed most mid-cap indexes. Of the three ETFs tracking the S&P 500, we prefer IVV or VOO over SPY. While SPY is the most liquid, it is technically organized as a unit investment trust, a more restrictive legal structure, which prevents it from engaging in securities lending, reinvesting dividends, and using index futures. Consequently, SPY has lagged the S&P 500 by more than its expense ratio. CRSP US Large Cap Index This benchmark is more comprehensive than the S&P 500. It targets the largest 85% of the market and applies buffering rules to limit turnover. This sweeps in both large- and mid-cap stocks. VV adopted this index in 2013. Vanguard has a history of working with index providers to refine best practices and negotiate better fees. In fact, it previously switched some index funds to MSCI from S&P. Russell 1000 The Russell 1000 Index dips even deeper into mid-cap territory. The average market capitalization of its holdings is $54 billion compared with $72 billion for the S&P 500. The index includes all but six of the stocks that are in the S&P 500 as well as many more mid-caps. IWB is lower-cost and has better liquidity than the ETFs from Vanguard and SPDR that track the same index. Dow Jones US Large Cap Total Stock Market This index tracks approximately the 750 largest U.S. stocks and is available through SCHX. Schwab offers a suite of ETFs based on Dow Jones indexes. The Dow Jones Small Cap Total Stock Market Index includes the next largest 1,750 stocks, while the mid-cap index encompass 501st to 1,000th largest stocks. S&P acquired the Dow Jones indexes business in 2010. Schwab’s size segment funds have the lowest expense ratios in their respective categories, and liquidity has improved as these funds have gained assets. Disclosure: Morningstar, Inc. licenses its indexes to institutions for a variety of reasons, including the creation of investment products and the benchmarking of existing products. When licensing indexes for the creation or benchmarking of investment products, Morningstar receives fees that are mainly based on fund assets under management. As of Sept. 30, 2012, AlphaPro Management, BlackRock Asset Management, First Asset, First Trust, Invesco, Merrill Lynch, Northern Trust, Nuveen, and Van Eck license one or more Morningstar indexes for this purpose. These investment products are not sponsored, issued, marketed, or sold by Morningstar. Morningstar does not make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in any investment product based on or benchmarked against a Morningstar index.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF : Let’s Analyze It Using Our Scorecard System

Summary Analysis of the components of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) using my Scorecard System. Specifically written to assist those Seeking Alpha readers who are using my free cash flow system. Part II concentrated on “Main Street” while Part I in the series concentrated on “Wall Street” and this final Part III will combine everything into one final result. Back in late December I introduced my free cash flow “Scorecard” system here on Seeking Alpha, through a series of articles that you can view by going to my SA profile . My purpose in doing so was to try and teach as many investors as I could on how to do this simple analysis on their own as I believe in the following: “Give a person a fish and you feed them for a day, Teach a person to fish and you feed them for life” I have been very pleased with the positive feedback that I have received so far, but included in that feedback were many requests by those using my system, to see if they did their analysis correctly or not. Since the rate of these requests have been increasing with every new article I write, I have decided to start a new series of articles here on Seeking Alpha analyzing the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ), where I will analyze each of its components individually. That way those of you using my system will have something like a “teacher’s edition” that will give you all the correct calculations for each component. Obviously I couldn’t include the results for all my ratios in one article, so I will did a series of articles, (where this is the final part) where each ratio’s results for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF will have its own article devoted to it. Hopefully these articles can be used as reference guides that everyone can use over and over again, whenever the need arises. Having said that, I would suggest that everyone first read Part I by going HERE . There you will find the data on my “Free Cash Flow Yield” ratio which is one of three parts that I use it tabulating my final “Scorecard”. While free cash flow yield is a Wall Street ratio (Valuation Ratio), I also wrote an article that concentrated on my “CapFlow” and “FROIC” Ratios, which are Main Street ratios, which you can read by going HERE . In this article I will generate my Scorecard results for each component and basically combine all three ratio results to generate one final result. Once completed, my Scorecard should give everyone a clearer understanding on how accurate the valuation is that Wall Street has assigned each company relative to its actual Main Street performance. Before we show you the final results of my Scorecard, here is brief introduction to how it works: Scorecard The Scorecard is the final score for any company under analysis and this is done by combining the three ratio (listed below) final results into one analysis, we grade each company with either a passing score of 1 or a failing score of 0 per ratio where a perfect final score per stock would be a 3. The ideal CapFlow results are anything less than 33%. The ideal FROIC score is any result above 20%. The ideal Free Cash Flow Yield is anything over 10%. So in analyzing Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) for example, we get for TTM (trailing twelve months). For the conservative investor: CAPFLOW = 16% PASSED FROIC = 34% PASSED FREE CASH FLOW YIELD = 7.6% FAILED SCORECARD SCORE = 2 (Out of possible 3) For the aggressive or “Buy & Hold” investor, we get a Scorecard score of 3 as Apple’s 7.6% free cash flow yield would be classified as a buy. These are the parameters for the Free Cash Flow Yield. It is important before preceding to determine what kind of investor you are as determined by the amount of risk you are willing to take. Then once you have done that, then pick the parameter list below that fits your risk tolerance. So without further ado here are the final Scorecard results for the components that make up the SPDR S&P 500 ETF : What my Scorecard also achieves, besides telling you which individual stocks are attractive and which are not, is that it also allows you in “one shot” to see how overvalued or attractively valued the stock market is as a whole. For example, for the conservative investor now is the time to be extremely cautious as only these five stocks came in with a perfect score of “3” Affiliated Managers Group (NYSE: AMG ) Aflac (NYSE: AFL ) General Dynamics (NYSE: GD ) LyondellBasell Industries (NYSE: LYB ) Principal Financial (NYSE: PFG ) As you can see I only found 5 bargains out of 500 for the conservative low risk investor and that comes out to just 1% of the total universe being bargains! As for the aggressive investor, who is willing to take on more risk, we have only 30 stocks that are considered higher risk bargains. That comes out to only 6% being attractive and 94% being holds or sells. So as you can see as a portfolio manager I have to work extremely hard just to find one needle in the haystack, while in March 2009 there were probably 250 bargains for the conservative investor at that time. Thus this data clearly shows that we are at the opposite extreme of where we were in 2009 and are at an extremely overvalued level. Here is the same analysis using the Dow Jones Index where I actually analyzed that index for 2001, 2009 and 2015. You can view those results by going HERE . Here are also the 30 names that passed the “3” test for the more aggressive/buy & hold investor, from the list above. Affiliated Managers Group Aflac General Dynamics LyondellBasell Industries Principal Financial Accenture (NYSE: ACN ) Apple Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY ) Citrix Systems (NASDAQ: CTXS ) Coach (NYSE: COH ) CR Bard (NYSE: BCR ) Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL ) Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE: DNB ) Edwards Lifesciences (NYSE: EW ) Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: EA ) Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE ) Fossil Group (NASDAQ: FOSL ) H&R Block (NYSE: HRB ) IBM (NYSE: IBM ) Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT ) Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT ) NetApp (NASDAQ: NTAP ) PetSmart (NASDAQ: PETM ) Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM ) Rockwell Automation (NYSE: ROK ) Scripps Networks (NYSE: SNI ) Seagate Technology (NASDAQ: STX ) Teradata (NYSE: TDC ) VeriSign (NASDAQ: VRSN ) Western Digital (NASDAQ: WDC ) In getting back to the table the “TOTALS” you see at the end are the sum of each ratio divided by 500. The totals for both Scorecards are out of 1500 (1 point for each ratio result) as a perfect score were every stock would be a bargain. Therefore the conservative scorecard result is 384/1500 or 25.6% out of 100% and the more aggressive/buy & hold scorecard came in at 488/1500 or 32.5% out of 100%. Both clearly are not inspiring and could be a clear sign that the markets are ready for serious correction going forward. Always remember that the results shown above should not be considered investment advice, but just the results of the ratios. The system outlined in this article is just meant to be used as reference material to be included as just “one” part of everyone’s own due diligence. So in other words, don’t make investment decisions based on just my Scorecard results, but incorporate them as part of your own due diligence.