Tag Archives: nysearcadvy

Income ETFs, Funds And MLPs: Tide Going Out

Low interest rates, relentless central bank confidence pumps and a runaway investment sales machine have all served to herd income-searching investors into income-producing assets over the past 3 years. In the process, unit valuations that were already high in 2012 moved to outrageous by 2014. The trouble is that capital risk rises in lock step with price, even as income products have been sold to those who can least tolerate losses. The marketing mantra is that income/dividend paying securities are ‘defensive,’ ‘stable’ places to park savings. Just as in previous investment cycles, fund cos and issuers ramped up sales campaigns as prices rose, rolling out an ungodly barrage of artfully wrapped products. Sadly many customers who had bitten similar baits in 2005-08, lost heavily and swore off the risk-sellers for a few years after that. Then in the past couple of years as finance trolled for suckers, many hopefuls have been lured back in, just as the price cycle crested once more. Some of the most reckless financial advisers and firms (unfortunately, there’s lots of them) have been looking after their own sales targets by recommending that their customers borrow to “invest.” With loan rates so low, they argue it’s a no-brainer to use a lender’s money to increase buying power. In truth, the strategy is more typically a recipe for financial disaster. The fall out of this cycle is just starting to show as high yield debt, preferred shares and MLPs (Master Limited Partnerships) concentrated on the energy sector, have been selling off over the past 9 months. See: MLPs yield headaches for advisers who bought them for income. The capital tide is retreating. As usual it starts slowly at first; then all at once, as losses shock the hearts and minds of holders. See: Is this the beginning of the end for dividend funds? Dividend ETFs are on fire, and not in a good way. Exchange-traded funds that employ a variety of strategies to invest in dividend-paying stocks have been a no-brainer since the financial crisis, as income investors have confronted artificially low interest rates. But after years of inflows that swelled assets to $100 billion, dividend ETFs have seen an outflow of $2 billion this year.1 If that isn’t quite apocalyptic, it is scary, and if it keeps up, this will be the first year of outflows ever. The outflows aren’t from just one ETF or the result of one massive trade. It’s a slow and steady burn from most of the largest and most beloved dividend ETFs. (click to enlarge) When dividend products from the Big Three in ETFs – Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street – are hurting, it shows that no product is safe when investors anticipate a big change in the markets. Not even dividend ETFs.

3 Sectors To Watch In The Second Half Of 2015

Summary The tepid return in the major averages was generated by weakening in interest rate sensitive areas and continued strength in high growth leadership categories. Healthcare stocks were once considered a defensive area of the market, yet have transitioned to a more growth oriented phase. Conversely, utility stocks have been torched by rising interest rates that have eaten away at their returns. The S&P 500 Index was nearly unchanged in the first half of 2015, yet the divergences in underlying sectors told a very different tale. The tepid return in the major averages was generated by weakening in interest rate sensitive areas and continued strength in high-growth leadership categories. This tug-of-war style market has created a relative valuation chasm between several important sectors that warrants close attention. Leader: Healthcare Healthcare stocks were once considered a defensive area of the market similar to consumer staples and utilities because of their inelastic business models. After all, medical services and drug companies operate with little cyclical burden to their bottom line. Nevertheless, some believe that these stocks have transitioned to a more growth-oriented phase that has been driven by the biotech boom and continued advancements in the medical field. The Health Care Select Sector SDPR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLV ) has been a top performing area of the market over the last three- and five-year time frames and continues to lead as the No. 1 sector so far this year. There’s no doubt that this ETF has shown tremendous momentum and activity has been robust as XLV has gained 9.51% through June 30. While this area of the market has been one of the most resilient, I would be hesitant to chase performance and add near its recent highs. If XLV or a similar healthcare fund has been on your radar, I would be patient with respect to any future entry points and look to pick up shares on at least a modest dip. In addition, this sector should serve as a benchmark of momentum leadership. If we see XLV start to fall out of favor, it may signal that investors are looking to pair back on risk and potentially rotate into a more defensive stance. Healthcare stocks currently make up over 30% of the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (NYSEARCA: MTUM ), which screens its underlying holdings for recent performance characteristics. Laggard: Utilities On the flip side of the coin, utilities have been torched this year as a result of rising interest rates. Coming off a strong performance in 2014 where rising rates acted as a tailwind, the Utility Select Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA: XLU ) is down 10.70% through the first half of 2015. The price of XLU peaked at virtually the same time as interest rates bottomed and has been on a steady course lower ever since. For the moment, it appears that the fate of utility stocks is going to be closely tied to the price action of U.S. Treasury yields. This traditionally defensive sector has been eschewed for more growth-oriented positions in healthcare, consumer discretionary and technology stocks. From a relative value standpoint, I believe that utilities look attractive at these levels given the thesis that interest rates will remain stable or head lower over the next six months. The recent drop in price also has boosted the yield on XLU to a healthy 3.80%, which makes it the highest yielding sector in the S&P 500. Income investors should note that diversified dividend funds such as the iShares Select Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: DVY ) and First Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index Fund (NYSEARCA: FDL ) have outsized utility sector exposure. This asset allocation acted as a drag on returns in the first half of the year and should be noted as a key driver moving forward as well. Tweener: Financials Financial stocks have long been touted as the cure to beat rising interest rates, yet the Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA: XLF ) has been mired in a sideways malaise since the beginning of the year. XLF posted a net return of -0.61% through the first six months of 2015 and has failed to show inspiring price action to back up its reputation. XLF is an interesting fund because of the wide designation of financial-centric companies. This ETF includes large banks, REITs, brokerages and even diversified holding companies such as Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK.A ) (NYSE: BRK.B ). REITs are currently the third largest industry group within XLF at 14.20% and have dragged on returns since the beginning of the year. The iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA: IYR ) has experienced the same interest rate sensitive drag as utility stocks and is down 5.5% in 2015. Conversely, indexes that focus solely on banking stocks such as the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (NYSEARCA: KBE ) have gained 8.87% this year. Clearly these stocks are the true beneficiaries of the rising interest rate theme as it relates to a fundamental driver of industry returns. Ultimately, XLF appears to be experiencing its own internal tug-of-war based on this bifurcation between sub-sectors that has caused it to drift aimlessly for the last six months. The Bottom Line The information presented above can be applicable to both broad-based indices and individual sector investing. Investors that own diversified equity ETFs need to be cognizant of the underlying asset allocation and sector positioning as it relates to future risk and returns. Those who prefer to select more targeted ETFs may choose to shift their positions in order to take advantage of a specific theme or pair back on an overbought area of the market. Making small tactical changes of this nature can have a big impact on your performance and risk profile as we make our way into the second half of the year. I spoke in-depth about these topics and more in our recent mid-year teleseminar: Four Components Of A Successful Income Portfolio . Click here for the presentation . Disclosure: I am/we are long DVY. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: David Fabian, FMD Capital Management, and/or clients may hold positions in the ETFs and mutual funds mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell, or hold securities.

The 5 Funds – Q4 2014 Portfolio Review

Summary Reviews the performance of The 5 Funds Portfolios. The Vanguard REIT Index was the top performing ETF in the portfolios last quarter. Junk Bonds and International ETFs were the worst performers. Each quarter I plan to update my 3 portfolios: The Aggressive 5, The Moderate 5, and The Conservative 5 and show the performance from the previous quarter, as well as since inception. I’ll also give an update on why I’m making some of the changes and my quick market update. Hopefully this will be helpful for people either following my portfolios or creating their own ETF portfolio. The Conservative 5 Name Symbol Type Allocation Change Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF (NYSEARCA: VTI ) Large Cap Blend 25% +5% 1 iShares Select Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: DVY ) Mid-Cap Value 16% +1% 3 Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NYSEARCA: BND ) Intermediate Term Bond Fund 35% None PowerShares Senior Loan ETF (NYSEARCA: BKLN ) Short Term Bond Fund 0% -10% 2 SPDR Barclay’s High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: JNK ) High Yield Bond Fund 9% -1% 3 iShares Floating Rate Bond (NYSEARCA: FLOT ) Short Term Bond Fund 10% +10% 1 Cash Cash 5% -5% 2 Updated 1/4/2015 Add Allocation Reduce Allocation Investment Drift (No New Trades Required) Conservative 5 Performance* Conservative 5 SPY (S&P 500) Last Month -0.6% -0.3% QTD 2.0% 4.9% YTD – – Since Inception (10/1/2014) 2.0% 4.9% Std Dev. compared to SPY .31 1.0 As of 12/31/2014 Performance by ETF January 2015 Update The biggest update to the Conservative 5 Portfolio ​is the removal of PowerShares Senior Loan ETF and replacing it with the iShares Floating Rate Bond. The reason for the change is that I’m concerned with the amount of volatility in BKLN. As we saw, it took a few large dips in the 4th quarter of 2014. BKLN consists of a lot of lower quality bonds which is the reason for the volatility, FLOT is a more conservative, less volatile ETF which allows us to increase our position in VTI without adding much additional volatility to the portfolio. We continue to favor equities over bonds in 2015 and feel as rates rise and bonds are hurt, the equity market should outperform. We have also reduced the cash position in the account to 5% and moved that money over to Vanguard Total Stock Market Index. This move will add slightly more risk to the portfolio, but the overall risk of the portfolio should not be increasing significantly. The Moderate 5 Name Symbol Type Allocation Change Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF VTI Large Cap Blend 60% +5% 1 Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: VEA ) Large Cap International 5% -5% 2 Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: VWO ) Emerging Markets 0% -5% 2 Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF BND Intermediate Bond 20% None Vanguard REIT ETF (NYSEARCA: VNQ ) REIT 5% None PowerShares QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ ) Large Cap Growth 5% +5% 1 Cash Cash 5% None Updated 1/4/2015 Add Allocation Reduce Allocation Investment Drift (No New Trades Required) Moderate 5 Performance* Moderate 5 SPY (S&P 500) Last Month -1.1% -0.3% QTD 3.3% 4.90 YTD – – Since Inception 3.3% 4.9% Std. Dev compared to SPY .63 1.0 ​ As of 12/31/2014 Performance by ETF January 2015 Update We made 2 fairly large updates to The Moderate 5 portfolio during this reallocation, both of which focused on reducing our international exposure and increasing U.S. exposure. We have seen emerging markets really struggle lately because of the rising dollar and many EM countries, like Russia, are oil exporters, so the lower oil prices have weighed on their economy. We have replaced our Emerging Markets ETF with QQQ, which is a technology themed U.S. growth ETF. We believe that the tech sector will continue to grow in 2015 and this should be a good compliment to the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF already in the portfolio. We also reduced the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF because we are still concerned with international exposure and would prefer to have that money in the U.S. for now. That being said, we are keeping a close eye on Europe and Japan as we think both could do well this year. Don’t be surprised if we add back to our international position later in the year as Europe, Japan, and even China have promised to keep interest rates low and money pumping into these economies as the U.S. looks to rise rates as QE is now completed. The Aggressive 5 Name Symbol Type Allocation Change Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF VTI Large Cap Blend 66% +1% 3 Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF VEA Large Cap International 9% -1% 3 Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF VWO Emerging Markets 0% -5% 2 PowerShares QQQ ETF QQQ Large Cap Growth 10% None Vanguard REIT ETF VNQ REIT 5% None iShares Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA: IWM ) Small Cap Blend 5% +5% 1 Cash Cash 5% None Updated 1/4/2015 Add Allocation Reduce Allocation Investment Drift (No New Trades Required) Aggressive 5 Performance* Aggressive 5 SPY (S&P 500) Last Month -1.3% -0.3% QTD 4.2% 4.9% YTD – – Since Inception (10/1/2014) 4.2% 4.9% Std. Dev compared to SPY .92 1.0 Performance by ETF January 2015 Update Only 1 large change this quarter to The Aggressive 5 Portfolio which focuses on reducing our international exposure and increasing U.S. exposure. We have seen emerging markets really struggle lately because of the rising dollar and many EM countries, like Russia, are oil exporters, so the lower oil prices have weighed on their economy. We have replaced our Emerging Markets ETF with iShares Russell 2000 Index. We saw small cap companies struggle in 2014 and think that they could rebound in 2015 now that their valuations are more attractive than where they were a year ago. We believe 2015 will be a good year for the market and typically small company stocks outperform the S&P 500 in that type of environment. We didn’t make a change to the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF, but the allocation percentage dipped by 1% because of their under performance over the past quarter. As discussed above, we are keeping a close eye on Europe, Japan, and even China, as we think these economies could do well this year. *Performance is measure by Morningstar and assumes no trade commissions. Assumes trades were placed on 10/1/14 at the closing price on that day.