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A Pleasant Surprise Among Emerging Market ETFs

Broadly speaking, these are not the best of times for emerging market exchange traded funds. India large-cap ETFs have been significantly better or less bad than other single-country and diversified emerging markets ETFs over the past month. In the near term, India ETFs could pullback following the Reserve Bank of India’s decision Tuesday to hold interest rates at 7.25 percent. By Todd Shriber, ETF Professor Broadly speaking, these are not the best of times for emerging market exchange traded funds. Things are so bad that 22 emerging markets funds hit 52-week lows on Monday. Since the star of the current quarter, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA: EEM ) has bled nearly $2.5 billion in assets. However, there is some light among the darkness and it comes courtesy of Indian small-caps. India large-cap ETFs have been significantly better or less bad than other single-country and diversified emerging markets ETFs over the past month, but funds such as the Market Vectors India Small-Cap Index ETF (NYSEARCA: SCIF ) , the EGShares India Small Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: SCIN ) and the iShares MSCI India Small Cap Index ETF (BATS: SMIN ) have legitimately impressed . While the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has tumbled 5.6 percent over the past month, the aforementioned trio of India small-cap ETFs posted an average return of almost 5.5 percent. This is not unfamiliar territory for India ETFs, which were the shining stars of the BRIC quartet last when emerging markets equities slumped. In the near term, India ETFs could pullback following the Reserve Bank of India’s decision Tuesday to hold interest rates at 7.25 percent, but the central bank has obliged with three rate cuts earlier this year, at least two of which can be considered surprises. Interestingly, the gains for Indian small-caps over the past month arrived as investors pulled $35 million from Indian stocks last month, still a scant percentage of the $7.1. billion that has flowed into stocks in Asia’s third-largest economy this year, according to Bloomberg . Divergent Returns Significant differences between the India small-cap ETFs tell the story of divergent returns. For example, the Market Vectors India Small-Cap Index ETF features a 21.2 percent to consumer discretionary stocks, leveraging the ETF to India’s burgeoning consumer story. SMIN, the iShares offering, is also a play on India’s resurgent domestic economy with a 44.3 percent allocation to financial services and industrial names. The EGShares India Small Cap ETF devotes over half its weight to financial stocks and industrials. A BlackRock fund manager recently sounded a bullish tone on Indian non-bank financials and select sub-sectors of the industrial space. Though the fund manager did not mention the ETFs highlighted here, institutional support for Indian small-caps should drive the likes of SCIF, SCIN and SMIN higher. Indian small-caps are not a bump-free ride. For example, SCIF has a three-year standard deviation of almost 32 percent, or 2 1/2 times that of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. However, Indian small-cap, at least as measured by SCIF and SCIN, are not excessively valued. SCIF sports a price-to-earnings ratio of just 11 , while SCIN’s price-to-book ratio is just 1.16. Disclaimer: Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Buying The Dip In Apple? You’re A Market Timer

The last time Apple pulled back 10%-plus from its peak and fell below its 200-day trendline, the stock went on to lose 33% from that moment forward. In a market where the median U.S. stock sports its highest P/E and P/S ratios ever, Apple is a relative “bargain.” However, I am not particularly interested in writing about the merits of Apple as a buying opportunity. I am far more intrigued by discussing the hypocrisy of the buy-n-hold community. One of the media’s biggest financial stories this week involves the curious fall of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ). Specifically, the largest company in the world by market capitalization has entered correction territory – a 10%-plus fall from a high-water mark. Not surprisingly, few analysts have soured on shares of the culture changer. Even fewer are discussing the technical resistance near $133 per share let alone the drop below a 200-day moving average. The last time Apple pulled back 10%-plus from its peak and fell below its 200-day trendline, the stock went on to lose 33% from that moment forward. Obviously, history rarely repeats itself in identical fashion. What’s more, in a market where the median U.S. stock sports its highest P/E and P/S ratios ever, Apple is a relative “bargain.” Heck, Apple even offers an attractive dividend that you wouldn’t be able to count on from most companies in the white hot biotech space. On the other hand, I am not particularly interested in writing about the merits of Apple as a buying opportunity. On the contrary. I am far more intrigued by discussing the hypocrisy of the buy-n-hold community. In particular, “don’t try to time the market” pretenders are the first in line to discuss the benefits of buying Apple as it trades at a 10% price discount from its highs. If you’re a buyer of stock at a particular time at a specific price, you are timing the market. If you rebalance when you perceive your allocation is out of whack, you are a market timer as well. You are selling some assets at one price and buying other assets at another price. There’s also the hold-n-hope claim that one sticks to his/her asset allocation mix through thin and thick. If that is so, then where does the 60%-40% stock-bond asset allocator suddenly have more cash to buy more Apple shares? Retirees with rollovers sure wouldn’t have it from work income. Even for the buy-n-hold asset allocator who claims he would use the income from dividends and interest or “work” to buy more Apple is being disingenuous. If you have no intention of timing the market, all of the monies would be reinvested immediately; you would not be waiting for an opportunity. The whole idea of a buying opportunity is, by definition, a market timing endeavor. And yet, people only scream bloody murder about market timing when someone suggests selling assets . It does not matter if you adhere to fundamental rules (e.g., extreme overvaluation versus undervaluation) and technical trends (e.g., deteriorating breadth/market internals versus improving breadth/market internals). When the stock market is on a six-year bull run, anything that resembles risk reduction is regularly panned. My tactical asset allocation strategy for reducing exposure to riskier assets involves reducing (not eliminating) exposure to riskier assets when valuations are hitting extremes, technical internals are deteriorating and economic indicators are weakening. When valuations are fair, internals are improving and economic signs are strengthening, we raise exposure to riskier assets back to a client’s target mix. Market timing? Sure, in the same way that opportunistic rebalancing activity and opportunistic efforts to buy quality stocks like Apple at lower prices fit the bill. Indeed, the staunchest advocates of buying-n-holding, including the wonderfully talented Warren Buffett, have a plan for when and what to buy and when and what to sell. Mr. Buffett’s decision to sell all of his Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM ) shares in the wintertime demonstrated that there are opportunities to reduce perceived risks, just as others may view the acquisition of more Apple shares today as sensible risk. Just be honest, Mr. Buy-the-Apple-Dip Advocate. Your attempt to acquire shares of Apple at a 10% price discount today is an effort to time the market for when to acquire more of the stock. And more power to you! However, let’s imagine that I dared to opine that overall risks in the stock market are exorbitantly high. And that I put forward a notion that if Apple represented 15% of a portfolio, perhaps one might wish to reduce the exposure to 7.5%. (Remember, I am asking one to imagine this proposition.) Immediately, there would be calls for my “market timing” head. The mere suggestion of selling or rebalancing based on fundamental, economic and technical analysis would be deemed blasphemous. Not surprisingly, the loudest screams about the evils of market timing come during the height of bull market euphoria. Ironically, near the lowest ebb of bear market distress – whether it is with individual shares of Apple (10/2012-7/2013) or with broad market benchmarks like the S&P 500 (e.g., 2000-2002, 2007-2009, etc.), those screams turn to whimpers. The facts that I have been presenting for several months still remain. The U.S. economy has been showing signs of strain, regularly missing expectations and estimates. Corporate revenue has now declined year-over-year for two consecutive quarters, pushing valuations on stocks to higher extremes. Meanwhile, market breadth has shown no signs of recovering since May, when the S&P 500 Bullish Percentage Index straddled 75% (today closer to 50%) and the NYSE Advance Decline (A/D) Line hit its last peak. Disclosure: Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial, Inc, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds, and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial, Inc. or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert web site. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships.

Mutual Fund Investors Take Wait-And-See Approach Ahead Of FOMC Meeting

By Tom Roseen Despite the flight to safety and what many market pundits might have expected-a subsequent uptick in flows to money market funds, for the second week in three investors were net redeemers of fund assets (including those of conventional funds and exchange-traded funds [ETFs]), withdrawing a net $6.2 billion for the fund-flows week ended, Wednesday, July 29. Investors pulled money out of all four of Lipper’s major macro-groups, redeeming $3.5 billion from taxable bond funds, $1.8 billion from equity funds, $0.9 billion from money market funds, and $73 million from municipal bond funds. Weak earnings reports from bellwether stocks such as American Express (NYSE: AXP ), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT ), and 3M (NYSE: MMM ), accompanied by a hangover from China’s market meltdown, outweighed a drop in weekly applications for unemployment benefits to the lowest level since 1973. Investors shrugged off a better-than-expected earnings report from Amazon and ignored the Anthem (NYSE: ANTM )-Cigna (NYSE: CI ) M&A news and the announcement that Greek officials had approved a second set of austerity measures. Instead, investors focused on the continued decline in oil, the selloff in commodities, concerns over a decline in global economic growth, and a housing report that showed the largest slowdown in single-family-home sales in seven months. Ho-hum economic data and sketchy guidance from U.S. firms during the flows week initially led investors to safe-haven plays, especially after the Shanghai Composite’s largest one-day slide (-8.5%) since February 2007. Despite a better-than-expected June durable goods report, investors took a wait-and-see approach ahead of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting, leading to a small rally in U.S. Treasuries. However, in the last two days of the flows week U.S. stocks rallied after China stocks showed a more tempered decline and oil prices rose for the first time in five sessions. On Wednesday, July 29, the Dow marked its fifth straight session of triple-digit moves, this time to the upside after the Federal Reserve left itself wiggle room to raise rates as early as September, citing a continuation of solid gains in the job market. Investors cheered Citrix’s better-than-expected earnings report, Chinese stocks moved higher, and crude oil had its second biggest one-day gain for July, with futures rising 1.7% for the day. Nonetheless, the Dow Jones Industrial Daily Reinvested Average still finished the flows week down 0.56%. (click to enlarge) Source: Lipper, a Thomson Reuters company Interestingly, fund investors collectively kept their foot on the gas pedal for a few risk-on plays, injecting net new money into international equity funds (+$0.9 billion), health/biotechnology funds (+$0.6 billion), mid-cap funds (+$0.2 billion), and science & technology funds (+$0.1 billion). Except for small net flows into government/Treasury funds (+$0.4 billion) during the week, the typical safe-haven plays didn’t attract net new money as investors appeared to be waiting on the policy statement by the Fed to plan their next steps. Year to date, international equity funds (including traditional funds and ETFs) have attracted $135.1 billion of net new money, while their domestic equity counterparts have suffered net redemptions to the tune of $54.7 billion.