Tag Archives: netherlands

Positioning From The United States Into The Eurozone

Summary The economy in the U.S. is deteriorating, while the Eurozone is prospering. The euro is about to take off due to fundamentals in current account and balance of trade. European stocks will be boosted due to good production and retail sales numbers. Investors are focused too much on the U.S., while they are totally ignoring what is happening in Europe. What they are missing is that Europe’s economy is actually improving. I will highlight some of the main key indicators of both economies and invite investors to jump into Europe and out of the U.S. First off, the trade balance, one of the most important indicators of export and import, has favoured Europe as the euro declined 20% against the U.S. dollar last year. Europe still has a positive balance of trade, while the U.S. has seen widening deficits. (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) This translates into a current account deficit in the U.S., while Europe has a current account surplus. A positive current account is typically good for a currency so we should see the euro prosper against the U.S. dollar. The only reason why the U.S. dollar is so strong is because it is still the reserve currency. (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) Second, the unemployment rate in Europe is really improving now, unlike the manipulated numbers in the U.S. The reason why the U.S. had such a major decline in unemployment rate is because a lot of people dropped out of the labor force (which we don’t see in Europe as more people actually have a job) and because the U.S. has seen a lot of part-time employment, especially in the low-paying service sector industry. (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) Third, as I already suggested, the U.S. manufacturing industry is collapsing with a manufacturing PMI dropping to 52 in November 2015. All the jobs are going into the service sector. In Europe on the other hand, the manufacturing PMI is on the rise to 54. These trends tell me that GDP growth in the U.S. will decline, while GDP growth in Europe will improve. That also means that government debt to GDP will go up more in the U.S. (103%) than in Europe (92%). (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) The trend in industrial production numbers confirms my previous statements. Year over year industrial production growth in the U.S. is flatlined at the moment, while Europe is improving. (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) As the industry collapses in the U.S., factories need less capacity and this results in a declining capacity utilization rate to a low of 77%. In Europe on the other hand, we see a continuing improvement with capacity utilization well over 80%. (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) Fourth, the consumer is also more confident in Europe as compared to the U.S. When we look at retail sales there is a huge discrepancy between the U.S. and Europe. In the U.S. we see a steady decline, while in Europe the retail sales are booming. Of course, a lot of these numbers depend on inflation and due to a strong decline in the euro, inflation in the Eurozone has been somewhat higher than in the U.S., boosting retail sales numbers. Nevertheless, it looks like the European consumer has more money in its pocket to spend than its U.S. counterpart. And keep in mind that the European savings rate is double (13%) that of the U.S. (6%). (click to enlarge) (click to enlarge) Conclusion: It looks obvious to me that Europe is the better deal here and investors should start looking to invest in Europe instead of the U.S. I believe the euro will be heading north soon due to improving current account surplus and industrial production. European stock markets will fare better due to higher GDP growth, manufacturing PMI, consumer sentiment and retail sales. An improving employment picture in Europe will boost the overall economy. Investors can choose out of a series of European ETFs, but the ones I recommend are the 4 largest: the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: HEDJ ), the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSEARCA: VGK ), the iShares MSCI EMU ETF (NYSEARCA: EZU ), the SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF (NYSEARCA: FEZ ). These ETFs are the closest in replicating the price and yield of equities in the Eurozone. Of these ETFs the highest return on equity is found in the Europe Hedged Equity Fund. The reason for this is because this ETF yields higher returns when the euro falls against the U.S. dollar, which is what we saw happening in 2014-2015. Now that the euro is going back up, the returns in this ETF will be lower. This ETF invests mainly in stocks from Germany (26%), France (24%), the Netherlands (17%), Spain (26%) and Belgium (8%). The second highest return is found in iShares MSCI EMU ETF which invests mainly in stocks from France (32%), Germany (30%), Spain (11%) and the Netherlands (9%). To a lesser extent this ETF has exposure to Belgian and Italian equities. The FTSE Europe ETF has the third highest return with interests mainly in the U.K. (29%), Switzerland (14%), Germany (14%) and France (14%). Although these are European countries, this ETF invests in global companies like Nestle ( OTCPK:NSRGY ), Roche ( OTCQX:RHHBY ), Novartis (NYSE: NVS ) and HSBC (NYSE: HSBC ). So we can’t really say that this is a pure European ETF. For more European exposure you should look at EZU and HEDJ. The last ETF is the SPDR Euro STOXX 50 ETF which has the lowest return. One of the reasons of this low return is because it has a pretty high exposure to France (37.44%) and we have seen France underperform this year, not only due to its high unemployment rate, but also due to the Paris terror attacks. Other holdings are mainly invested in Germany (30%).

The iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF: A Dutch Treat?

The fund heavily weights Netherlands’ premier global companies. The fund has a consistent positive total returns over its 19 year existence. The main drag on the fund might be due to the strong US Dollar and weak Euro. There’s nothing like getting away to a warm place in the dead of winter. Oh, the idea of heading south to the Caribbean to escape the slush, ice and snarled traffic. Perhaps, Aruba, Curaçao or Sint Maarten? On the other hand, you might get a puzzled look from your co-workers while they’re bundling up for their wintery trek home by announcing that you’re off to the Netherlands for holiday. The fact is you’re actually being quite accurate! Those aforementioned mentioned timeless, carefree, warm, sunny islands are actually autonomously governed members of the Kingdom of Netherlands . The country in northern Europe which might have first come to mind, Netherlands, is actually a forth constituent member of the Kingdom of Netherlands . The Kingdom’s reach doesn’t end there, either! Three other Caribbean islands Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba are special municipalities and its citizens actually have voting rights in Dutch and European election! There’re two details that often confuse people: what’s the difference between Netherlands and Holland ; and who are the people of Netherlands? First, Holland is located in the central region of Netherlands. Second, the people of Netherlands are Dutch ! To put this in perspective, the beautiful cities of Amsterdam, Rotterdam, the Hague, Delft, Leiden and Haarlem are located in Holland, which is in Netherlands. Lastly, Netherlands is governed by a constitutional monarchy, with a bicameral parliament. The monarchy isn’t just a formality, either! King Willem-Alexander actively mediates in Dutch parliamentary politics. At this point there’s a good chance that Netherlands suddenly seems like an interesting place. You might even be asking yourself whether it’s a worthwhile investment. If that is indeed the case, there’s a way you can invest your ‘dollars’ in Netherlands through the BlackRock’s (NYSE: BLK ) iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF (NYSEARCA: EWN ) . According to BlackRock … The iShares (NYSE: MSCI ) Netherlands ETF seeks to track the investment results of a broad-based index composed of Dutch equities. .. The underlying index is Morgan Stanley Capital International’s ( MSCI ) Netherlands Investible Market Index . According to MSCI this index … is designed to measure the performance of the large, mid and small cap segments of the Netherlands market. With 47 constituents, the index covers approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Netherlands… Although the complete list of holdings and weightings are proprietary information, does indicate the index sector allocation and it is charted below for comparison with the fund’s sector allocation. Data from MSCI The fund’s sector allocations are demonstrated in the pie chart below, and seem to emulate the index quite closely. Data from iShares This fund, like many of the iShares focused funds, has been long established having been incepted in 1996. The fund’s net assets total $169,880,091.00 in US Dollars. It should be noted here that Netherlands is a member of the European Union as well as a Eurozone member; hence the currency of Netherlands is the Euro. This is an important point. Without getting too sidetracked, it suffices to say that it’s likely that the US Dollar will strengthen against the Euro within the next few quarters. This means that the values of individual holdings will decline in dollar terms, even if the individual companies are doing well. This shouldn’t put off the long term investor, but its good practice to be aware of the currency risks, at least in the near term. The fund has 6.8 million shares outstanding, is marginable and has a reasonably good 20 day average volume of over 77,000 shares per trading session. The fund is passively managed and management fees are slight higher than the industry average 0.44%, totaling 0.48%. The present annualized yield is given as 2.47% and the fund is currently trading at a 0.48% premium to NAV. The fund’s P/E ratio is given as 23.64% and a price to book value multiple of 2.14. The total number of holding is 48, which includes a small cash/derivatives holding. A quick overview of the major holdings with some key metrics, in order of sector weightings is presented below, starting with Consumer Staples. Although there are several ways to measure a company’s financial stability, the ‘Quick Ratio’ is included when available. In brief, Investopedia defines the ” Quick Ratio ” as … an indicator of a company’s short-term liquidity… …a company’s ability to meet its short-term obligations with its most liquid assets … … a quick ratio of 1.5 means that a company has $1.50 of liquid assets available to cover each $1 of current liabilities… Ah! Before continuing, please note that you will often see the Dutch word ” Koninklijke” preceding the company name or brand. It’s equivalent to “Royal Dutch”, like in ‘ Royal Dutch Shell ‘ (NYSE: RDS.A ) Consumer Staples 32.0171% Exchange and Symbol Fund Weighting Dividend Yield Payout Ratio Market Capitalization (in USD Billions) Quick Ratio Primary business Unilever UL 19.074% 3.05% 41.40% $131.00 0.47 Personal care, foods, refreshments, home care with 400 brand names. Services over 190 countries globally. On par with other global giants, Nestles (OTC: OTCPK:NSRGF ), Proctor and Gamble (NYSE: PG ) and the like. Heineken OTCQX:HEINY 5.439% 1.49% 33.42% $52.321 0.55 Beer brewing with over 50 brand names and global distribution in 75 countries Koninklijke Ahold OTCQX:AHODF 4.7393% 2.50% 50.53% of EPS $14.54 0.65 Food retail brands and Supermarkets in the USA New England area, Netherlands, and Czech Republic; total stores number, approximately, 3200 Heineken Holdings OTCQX:HKHHF 2.0859 1.62% 33.33% $19.11 0.55 Holding 50.005% of Heineken; the holding company segments and manages the Heineken brands by geographical region. There are in addition, three smaller Consumer Staple holdings accounting for 0.6789% of the fund’s total holdings. They are Corbion ( OTCPK:CSNVY ) , 0.3648% of the fund, providing bio-based food additives, emulsifiers, frozen doughs and vitamin premixes; Koninklijke Wessanen ( OTC:KJWNF ) at 0.2069%, which manufactures and markets organic food products, spreads, honeys, cereals, and dietary solutions; Amsterdam Commodities ( OTC:ACNFF ) at 0.1072%, which trades, transports and distributes agricultural products. All three companies contribute to the fund’s overall dividend. There are 9 financial holdings. The smaller holdings: Wereldhave ( OTC:WRDEF ) at 0.6159%; Eurocommercial Properties (Amsterdam: SIPFC) 0.5529% ; Vastned Retail REIT ( OTC:VSNDF ) 0.231%; NSI ( OTCPK:NIUWF ) 0.1405%, all totaling 1.3998% of the fund’s total holdings, are REITS. Delta Lloyd ( OTCPK:DLLLY ) 0.4364% and Binckbank ( OTC:BINCY ) 0.1274% provide traditional banking services, annuities, manage pension funds and online banking. All of the above contribute to the fund’s overall dividends. The lion’s share of financial holdings, at 19.2501%, is summarized below. Financials 21.3515% Exchange and Symbol Fund Weighting Dividend Yield Payout Ratio Market Capitalization (in USD Billions) Quick Ratio Primary business ING Group ING 14.3798% 2.18% 35.20% $48.335 NA A global player in banking, providing global retail service, investing, insurance as well as commercial service Aegon AEG 2.8773% 4.10% 63.78% $11.42% NA Insurance, pension management, Europe, North, Central and South Americas, U.K.; Expanding into Central and Eastern Europe and Asia NN Group OTC:NNGPF 1.9903% 3.49% NA $9.17 NA Insurance, investment management, annuities, reinsurance. Europe and Asia The fund holds 13 industrials, however, the top four account for over 10% of the fund’s holdings and well over 75% of the total industrial holdings. Industrial 13.6886% Exchange and Symbol Fund Weighting Dividend Yield Payout Ratio Market Capitalization (in USD Billions) Quick Ratio Primary business Koninklijke Philips PHG 6.5413% 3.28% 154.09% $23.81 0.86 Called ‘Philips’ in the US: Imaging systems, diagnostic imaging, x-ray equipment. Consumer lighting, appliances personal care products. Randstad Holdings OTCPK:RANJY 1.9134% 2.39% 56.95% $8.963 NA Staffing service, temporary and permanent, payroll services, outplacement, and workforce solutions. Koninklijke Baskalis Westminster OTC:KKWFF 1.0719% 3.60% 27.42% $5.09 0.37 Dredging and earthmoving, maritime infrastructure; management of oil and gas terminals TNT Express OTCPK:TNTEF 1.0647% 1.04% NA $3.827 1.20 Express carrier for documents, parcels and freight. Offices in 60 countries with a delivery reach in 200 countries globally Four companies comprise the Information Technology allocation. The topmost are most significant ASML (AMSL) and Gemalto ( GTOFF) accounting for 9.8634% of the fund and over 90% of the IT holdings. The smaller holdings are ASM International, (ASMIY) at 0.5154%, a manufacturer of wafer processing equipment and BE Semiconductor ( OTC:BESVF ) at 0.1657%, a manufacturer of semiconductor back-end and packaging equipment. All four holdings pay dividends. Information Technology 10.5445% Exchange and Symbol Fund Weighting Dividend Yield Payout Ratio Market Capitalization (in USD Billions) Quick Ratio Primary business ASML Holdings ASML 8.5177% 0.79% 21.65% $41.945 1.77 Semiconductor lithography systems for integrated device manufacturing, flash and DRAM memory. Gemalto GTOFF 1.3457% 0.69% 19.53% of EPS $4.897 1.20 Digital security: mobile, machine to machine, transactions There are three significant holdings for the Consumer Discretionary and two smaller holdings. The smaller holdings are TomTom (TOMAF) , the well-known navigation equipment manufacturer, at 0.2914% and Accell Group ( OTCPK:ACGPF ) at 0.1167% of the fund, manufactures exercise equipment, particularly bicycles and bicycle components. Consumer Discretionary Exchange and Symbol Fund Weighting Dividend Yield Payout Ratio Market Capitalization (in USD Billions) Quick Ratio Primary business Relx RELX 4.5121% 2.62% 65.37% $17.592 NA Information Solutions for science, medical and technical for professionals and students Wolters Kluwer OTCPK:WTKWY 2.7013% 1.68% 48.17% $8.73 0.69 Information software and services legal, business, accounting, medical and healthcare Altice (classes A and B) OTC:ALLVF 2.1537% 0.00% 0.00% $15.92 0.56 Media provider and services, cable TV, broadband internet, telephony Only four companies comprise the Materials Sector holdings, the two most significant are Akzo ( OTCQX:AKZOF ) and Koninklijke DSM ( OTC:KDSKF ) . The two smaller holdings are OCI ( OTCQX:OCINY ) 0.5894% which seems to be as much an industrial by way of its infrastructure construction and project management as well as manufacturing materials, particularly fertilizers. It is a subsidiary of Orascom Construction (Cairo: OCIC) . The second is Koninklijke Ten Cate ( OTC:KNKCF ) 0.1908% manufactures advanced textiles and composite materials. Materials 7.71% Exchange and Symbol Fund Weighting Dividend Yield Payout Ratio Market Capitalization (in USD Billions) Quick Ratio Primary business Akzo Nobel AKZOF 4.4598% 2.24% 36.27% $14.74 0.90 Paints, coatings, specialty chemicals, marine coatings, metal coatings, vehicle finishes. Also food additives, detergents, cosmetics. Koninklijke DSM KDSKF 2.47% 3.32% 366% of EPS $8.21 0.97 Nutrition, vitamins and nutrients, carotenoids. Also performance materials plastics, resins, polymer materials There’s only one telecom holding, Koninklijke KPN (OTC: OTC:KKPNF ) at 2.9527%. KPN has a $12.61 billion market cap and pays a 3.51% dividend. The company is pretty much a broad based telecom service provider whose primary business is integrated information and communication technology for mobile, residential and business. The least weighted sector is in energy with three holdings each has a weighting of less than one percent. Energy 1.7472% Exchange and Symbol Fund Weighting Dividend Yield Payout Ratio Market Capitalization (in USD Billions) Quick Ratio Primary business Vopak VOPLY 0.7454% 2.29% 43.5% of EPS $4.57 NA Storage of oil products, liquid chemicals, bio-fuels and vegetable oils as well as shipping terminal to terminal. SBMO OTCPK:SBFFF 0.6601% 0.00% 0.00% $2.52 2.02 Offshore energy, floating production and mooring systems, terminals and service Fugro OTCPK:FURGF 0.3417% 0.00% 0.00% $1.37% 1.49 Geotechnical Interpretation services providing information of the Earth’s surface and subsurface. Geosciences and Surveys for the oil and gas industry The fund has a respectable track record, with a consistent distribution as well as positive annual returns since inception, the only exception to that is the -1.59% negative return over the past 52 weeks. Since inception the fund has a total return of 4.98%; over the past ten years, 4.74%; five years, 4.98% and three years, 9.98%. Hence, the fund has a pretty consistent positive return, over different time frames, over the life of the fund, with the exception of the past year. (click to enlarge) The fund has several real global heavy-weight champs with distribution in the world’s best performing economies, like the USA, the U.K. and Germany. Further, the fund is smartly structured to top-weight these premier companies. Hence, it’s not unreasonable to assume that the poor performance over the past year may be currency related , particularly when it comes to US Dollar strength combined with Euro weakness. Should the US Fed raise its benchmark rate, or the ECB weaken the Euro in the coming months this might present an excellent buying opportunity for the investor with a long term outlook.