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Quant Strategies: Q1 2016 Performance

Here are the Q1 2016 total return and max drawdown numbers for the various quant strategies I track. For explanations of the various quant strategies see the portfolios page. All equity portfolios consist of 25 stocks and were formed at the end of 2015. No changes in the holdings since that time. In the table below, I list various quant strategies along with their YTD performance and drawdowns. Also, listed are various benchmark indices. Overall, the start of 2016 is working quite well for the various quant strategies. The utility strategy is leading the pack with a huge Q1. Only the microcap strategy is underperforming the relevant benchmarks. And that is after a great year in 2015. So not a big surprise. The staples value strategy continues to perform very well in almost every environment. I have been consistently surprised by this strategy. It’s probably due for a period of underperformance but not yet it seems. More aggressive versions of these strategies are also doing quite well. Ways to get more aggressive with these strategies are to run more concentrated portfolios, re-balance and check the portfolios more often, and in most portfolios the use of trailing stops enhances returns. A good stock and portfolio tool like portfolio123.com lets you do any of these quite easily. Also, for traders, the quant portfolios are fantastic idea generating lists for potential trades. I use them for this purpose every so often. In general, a great start to 2016 for quant strategies and much better than overall stock indexes and also the TAA strategies.

Q1 Asset Class Returns

The first question we had to ask ourselves after looking at the returns in March was, “Are the asset classes becoming increasingly correlated?” Here’s what happened in March by the numbers: 7 of the 8 Asset Classes recorded positive returns in March 4 of the 8 Asset Classes posted significant returns in March (Above 4%) 10.32% – The return of Real Estate in March 4 – Number of slots Real Estate moved up in the asset class scoreboard after March 2nd place – Where Managed Futures currently ranks despite a down month in March Real Estate: A double-digit return in a month is something you cannot ignore. What’s with Real Estate? The ETF we use (NYSEARCA: IYR ) tracks 100 different real estate companies , but the rebound could have something to do with another asset class… bonds (interest rates). Bonds: Depending on what Bond Market you watch, it was a big month. With the ETF we use is only up around 3% on the year, but the High Yield bonds cracked the Top 25 for best all-time monthly performance {Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results}. For those that have been following along the low interest rate environment we’ve been living in for almost a decade, low interest rates are good for people looking to purchase a home or refinance their mortgage. World Stocks, U.S. Stocks, and Commodities: Is the fact that these three asset classes all moved in tandem in March a coincidence or are these markets showing their true colors or being highly correlated? Last Week, we charted the current rolling 30 day correlation of the S&P 500 has to Crude Oil and not only has the correlation been increasing, 2016 has shown the highest correlation over a two year period. Managed Futures: Finally, Managed Futures had a tough month with the U.S. Dollar experiencing a choppy downward market. Combine that with the $VIX returning to the lows we saw constantly throughout 2014 and some of 2015 , and it was a struggle for managers to capture trends in choppy markets. We know the managers that we work with were long commodities but late reversals in the markets took away any gain made earlier in the month. The good news is that combined with the strong first two months of 2016 is enough to keep Managed Futures in 2nd place, despite a down March. Here’s the full look at the Q1 performance of 8 asset classes. Click to enlarge Click to enlarge (Disclaimer: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.) Source: All ETF performance data from Morningstar.com Sources: Managed Futures = SGA CTA Index, Cash = 13 week T-Bill rate, Bonds = Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NYSEARCA: BND ), Hedge Funds= IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy (NYSEARCA: QAI ) Commodities = iShares GSCI ETF (NYSEARCA: GSG ); Real Estate = iShares DJ Real Estate ETF ( IYR ); World Stocks = iShares MSCI ACWI ex US Index Fund ETF (NASDAQ: ACWX ); US Stocks = SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY )

Considering Alternative Investments? First, Know What You Want

By Richard Brink Alternative investments have an impressive long-term track record, but different strategies can perform in different ways – especially when markets are volatile. It’s critical to know what you want from an alternative strategy before you buy. Alternative strategies typically invest in a wider universe of assets. They also give managers more flexibility in structuring their investments. As a result, market movements or beta tend to have less influence on returns than they do on traditional “long only” stock and bond returns. What’s more, not all alternative strategies are alike . The combination of more flexibility and less market risk creates tremendous dispersion among managers within different categories, such as long/short equity, global macro, credit/relative value and so on. It’s important to know which strategy or combination of strategies is right for you. Risk and Reward: Getting the Balance Right Most investors who choose alternatives say they’re looking for a non-correlated source of high returns with strong downside protection. That’s fine – but it’s vague. After all, a bank CD provides all of these – it’s federally insured, with 100% downside protection and its predetermined returns are uncorrelated with the broad market. But for most investors CD returns in today’s era of low interest rates aren’t that compelling. That’s why it’s critical to have specific requirements and characteristics in mind. 1. Downside protection : Investors might start by asking themselves how much protection is enough. If the S&P 500 Index falls 20% but your portfolio is down 10%, is that a win? Or is a relative victory not really a victory at all? Maybe you can only stomach losses of 5% or less in any given year, irrespective of what the broader market does. 2. Returns : It helps to be specific about your return expectations, too. How much participation in up markets are you looking for? The stronger the downside protection, the more you’ll likely have to give up in returns when markets rise. If an investor knows she needs to earn at least 6% a year over time, she can save time and focus on the strategies and managers most likely to meet that goal. 3. Non-correlation : This one’s tricky. Having zero correlation to the S&P 500 or another benchmark index isn’t a prerequisite for success. Most alternative strategies have some degree of positive correlation to the broad market or index. Many have fairly high correlations. It’s a manager’s individual security selection or alpha, along with the downside protection, that often determines a strategy’s success. Outpacing Traditional Strategies In recent years, alternative strategies have struggled. That had a lot to do with very specific market conditions . Over the long run, though, those who invested in and stuck with an alternative strategy came out ahead. Alternatives have provided better returns than a typical “60/40” portfolio of stocks and bonds over the past 25 years (Display) – and they’ve done it with less risk. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of risk, was 1.09 for alternatives and 0.66 for the “60/40” portfolio. Click to enlarge That’s important, because the global financial backdrop has become more conducive to alternative strategies over the past year. The beta trade – simply chasing an index – that worked while stock markets were booming probably won’t be as effective in the years to come. So how have alternative investment managers on the whole been able to outpace a traditional mix of stocks and bonds over time? The secret of this outperformance can be found in a little appreciated but very effective investment metric known as the “up/down capture” ratio. We’ll dig more deeply into that in future posts. The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams. Richard Brink – Managing Director – Alternatives and Multi-Asset