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The Timeless Wisdom Of Sir John Templeton

By Tim Maverick Sir John Templeton (1912-2008) may be gone, but he’s still remembered as one of the greatest investors of all time. For one, Sir John popularized the idea of investing globally for U.S. investors. He launched his flagship Templeton Growth Fund when most didn’t even think of investing outside U.S. borders . That pioneering fund racked up an enviable track record, returning an average of 13.8% annually from 1954 to 2004. To this day, many of Templeton’s timeless investing principles still apply. Indeed, some of his principles have shaped how I approach investing. Below are a few of them. They come courtesy of the Franklin Templeton website and the Templeton Foundation. #1: Buy Low Seems obvious, right? But in reality, many investors do the opposite. They chase hot sectors after dramatic moves higher. Sir John always scoured the globe for bargains. He told investors to buy when everyone else is selling, when things look darkest, when all the experts say a certain investment is too risky. Templeton advised us to “buy when others are despondently selling and sell when others are avidly buying.” He would often say, “People are always asking me where the outlook is good, but that’s the wrong question. The right question is: Where is the outlook most miserable? The obvious application of this concept in practice is to avoid following the crowd.” I wonder what Sir John would think of today’s market, where the elite tech and biotech stocks are loved and everything overseas and commodities-related is detested? #2: Invest for the Long Term Hand in hand with value investing is investing for the long term. Templeton said, “Experience teaches us that one of the most common errors in selecting stocks… is the tendency to emphasize only the most obvious factor – namely, the temporary outlook for sales and profits of the company.” In other words, ignore Wall Street’s emphasis on quarterly earnings reports. Too many investors spend too much time looking at the short-term market outlooks and trends. #3: Diversify Sir John didn’t believe that one specific investment is always best – although over the long term, stocks do outperform. More importantly, no one can predict the future. If you’re focused too much on one company, sector or country, your portfolio is at risk. Sir John advised us to diversify by risk, industry, and country. He would say, “In stocks and bonds, as in much else, there is safety in numbers.” #4: Learn From Past Mistakes Everyone makes mistakes investing, even Sir John. As he said, “The only way to avoid mistakes is to not invest – which is the biggest mistake of all.” Instead, Templeton advised us to not become discouraged by loss and especially not to take even greater risks and try to recoup our losses all at once. He believed that the difference between successful and unsuccessful investors is that successful investors learn from their mistakes and the mistakes of others. Relatedly, you should run for the hills anytime you hear someone on CNBC say it’s a new era or that it’s different today. According to Sir John, “The investor who says, ‘This time is different,’ when in fact it’s virtually a repeat of an earlier situation, has uttered among the four most costly words in the annals of investing .” #5: Don’t Be Overconfident In other words, always question your investment approach. Is it still valid? Sir John wrote, “Everything is in a constant state of change, and the wise investor recognizes that success is a process of continually seeking answers to new questions.” A great example of this is how much the investment climate has changed surrounding energy MLPs. Investors poured tens of billions of dollars into funds investing in the sector, only to see losses of up to 35% on some funds this year. Other Templeton Insights Of course, there are plenty more insights to be gleaned from Sir John’s vast experience. He wasn’t a fan of trading – “The stock market is not a casino” – or of index funds – “If you buy the same securities everyone else is buying, you will have the same results as everyone else. By definition, you can’t outperform the market if you buy the market.” He also gave other common sense tips for investors, such as remembering inflation and taxes when investing, doing your homework, and always monitoring your investments. If readers wish to look at a number of Sir John’s investing tips, here’s a link: Templeton Wisdom . Keep in mind that they were written in 1993, so some of the data is very outdated. The insights, however, are timeless. Original post

The Year In Review: Investors Pull Money Out Of Mutual Funds

By Patrick Keon For 2015 Lipper’s mutual fund macro-groups (equity, taxable bond, money market, and municipal bond) experienced overall net outflows for the first time since 2011. The mutual fund groups saw over $121.5 billion leave their coffers last year, with taxable bond funds (-$85.9 billion) and equity funds (-$60.0) accounting for all of the net outflows. Money market funds (+$16.0 billion) and municipal bond funds (+$8.4 billion) were able to take in net new money for the year. The negative flows from taxable bond funds represented their first annual decrease since 2000 and their largest net outflows since Lipper began tracking fund-flows data (1992). After a positive start to 2015 the group suffered $109.2 billion of negative flows during the last two quarters of the year, when it became apparent the Federal Reserve was looking for an opportunity to start raising interest rates before finally doing so in December. The selling was spread out across both investment-grade and below-investment-grade bond funds; funds in Lipper’s Core Plus Bond Funds (-$20.6 billion), Loan Participation Funds (-$20.0 billion), and High Yield Funds (-$14.5 billion) classifications all experienced substantial net outflows. The annual net outflows for equity funds marked their first decrease since 2012; the group had taken in over $270 billion of net new money for 2013 and 2014 combined. Equity funds did start 2015 strongly with net inflows of almost $34 billion in the first quarter, but the tide turned after that with three straight quarters of net outflows, culminating with $73.0 billion of negative flows during the last quarter of the year. Domestic equity funds (-$153.9 billion) were responsible for all the year’s net outflows, while nondomestic equity funds (+$93.9 billion) were able to post net gains for the year. The main contributors to the negative flows on the domestic equity side were funds in Lipper’s Large-Cap Core Funds (-$47.5 billion), Large-Cap Growth Funds (-$29.4 billion), and Equity Income Funds (-$21.8 billion) categories. Click to enlarge

5 Portfolio Ideas For 2016

As a new year begins, investors are facing a more difficult market environment. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) zero interest rate policy is ending after seven years , the global economy is slowing , and according to Bloomberg data, financial assets of all stripes aren’t entirely cheap. Looking forward, following many years of rising valuations on the back of aggressive monetary policy, I believe the market returns are likely to be more muted in 2016. At the same time, given rising geopolitical uncertainty, the markets look sure to be more temperamental after years of relative calm. Amid high prices and high volatility, selectivity will be key to generating returns. So, where should investors look for opportunities? In my new piece, ” The BlackRock List ,” I share five portfolio ideas to consider. What to Consider in 2016 Look Abroad Given currently high valuations, U.S. stocks may well face substantial headwinds in the coming year. In contrast, outside of the U.S., stock prices look more attractive . I particularly like Europe and Japan, where valuations are more compelling and central banks are still delivering market-friendly monetary easing. As for emerging markets (EM), prices generally seem reasonable given recent underperformance. However, EM equities are fighting an uphill battle, held back by an appreciating U.S. dollar, falling commodity prices and flagging exports. As a result, within EM, consider being selective, either with an active manager who can drill down and identify opportunities while also managing portfolio risk, or through a combination of more granular indexed approaches. Consider Hedging Currency Exposure In International Markets Monetary policy divergence points to a strong dollar and weaker euro, meaning it may make sense to hedge international currency exposure . Be More Active With equity returns likely to moderate and volatility set to rise, investors face a difficult choice: Accept lower returns, or take on greater risk. I believe investors could benefit from looking to active managers to source some of their returns . Low volatility and strong returns benefited indexers the last six years, as active managers generally lagged their benchmarks. But higher volatility also means greater dispersion in security returns, creating a better opportunity set for skilled active managers. Go For An Unconstrained Income Strategy Income will remain a hot commodity in 2016, as interest rates are likely to stay low even as the Fed hikes and other income sources also face hurdles. For instance, stocks with relatively safe dividends, such as utilities, have been heavily bought and bid up in price amid the investors’ search for income. In this environment, generating ample income will require more than a single asset type as well as a careful balance of yield and risk. This is why an unconstrained income strategy , such as BlackRock’s Multi-Asset Income Fund, is worth considering. Diversify With Long-Term Bonds The best approach for weathering a financial market storm is the oldest one in the playbook: Diversification. While I prefer stocks over bonds heading into 2016, investors who are overweight equities are vulnerable to any unexpected political or growth shock, and should consider the right hedge. Specifically, longer-duration bonds are reasserting their role as an effective ballast to equity risk, and can be especially helpful in equity-centric portfolios. Within bonds, I prefer Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) to plain-vanilla Treasuries. Deflated inflation expectations seem like an anomaly, unless you expect oil prices to free fall forever. This makes TIPS look relatively attractive . This post originally appeared on the BlackRock Blog.